Masco Corporation research snapshot
MAS AI stock analysis reads Masco Corporation as a high-quality branded home improvement business tied to repair and remodel demand, with Delta, hansgrohe, Behr, Liberty, and HotSpring anchoring the portfolio. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the stock closed at $71.48 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $14.04 billion. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, beat on adjusted EPS at $1.64 up 26%, but net sales fell 3% to $1.992 billion against a $2.09 billion consensus, and management lifted 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.40 to $4.60 from $4.10 to $4.30. That raise relies partly on a one-time IEEPA tariff refund benefit of about $95 million net in the quarter and about $85 million for the year, while targeted strategic investments and a difficult comparison dragged second quarter revenue. The stock fell about 12% after the report as Evercore ISI downgraded to In Line on limited visibility around those investments and Barclays called the near-term spending confusing. The key debate is now whether 16.5x trailing EPS fairly prices a softer DIY market, commodity inflation, tariff layers, Home Depot exposure, and a strong but one-time-driven EPS beat. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$71.48
Market cap
$14.04 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Quality repair-and-remodel compounder at a better price after the Q2 2026 pullback
Trend status
Corrective pullback below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, still above the 100-day and 200-day trend lines
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Masco sells branded plumbing, bath, shower, paint, coatings, hardware, and spa products, with a repair-and-remodel focus that is less cyclical than pure new construction, though still tied to consumer budgets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from trusted brands such as Behr, Delta, hansgrohe, Liberty, and HotSpring, retail shelf space, professional installer familiarity, product breadth, channel relationships, and scale in plumbing and paint. | High |
| Management | Jon Nudi is early in the CEO role and is executing a consumer-driven strategy, but Q2 2026 strategic investments lacked detail, which led Evercore ISI to downgrade and Barclays to call the spending confusing. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 3.40% to $7.562 billion, and Q2 2026 net sales fell 3% to $1.992 billion, but adjusted operating profit rose 17% to $482 million, margin reached 24.2%, and adjusted EPS grew 26% to $1.64 partly on a one-time tariff refund. | High |
| Valuation | At $71.48, MAS trades near 16.51x TTM EPS, 1.84x sales, 12.47x trailing free cash flow, and pays a 1.79% dividend, a cheaper entry than the July 2026 peak of $83.64. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | MAS fell about 12% from its July 28, 2026 52-week high of $83.64 to $71.48, breaking below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages while holding above the 100-day and 200-day trend lines. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because soft DIY demand, Home Depot concentration, tariff layers, copper and oil inflation, channel inventory, strategic investment payback, and buyback-funded leverage can pressure results. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, Q2 data, market cap math, segment revenue, EPS guidance, cash, debt, and technical snapshots. Lower confidence for strategic investment outcomes and housing-cycle timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. MAS is a good business at a more reasonable price after the pullback, but the EPS upgrade leans on a one-time refund and DIY demand remains soft. | Medium |
MAS AI stock forecast
The MAS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $71.48 quote and the raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $4.50. The three-scenario framework, run with financial_rigor.py over three years from the $4.50 base, produced a bullish area near $108, a base area near $83, and a bearish area near $59 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 10%, 5%, and 0% and exit multiples of 18x, 16x, and 13x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$98 to $112
More likely if DIY paint and plumbing demand stabilize, pro paint keeps growing mid single digits, strategic investments start to pay back, copper and oil inflation stays manageable, and the market holds an 18x multiple on the $4.40 to $4.60 EPS path.
$78 to $88
More likely if 2026 sales stay up low single digits excluding one-time items, adjusted EPS lands near the $4.50 midpoint, the tariff refund becomes a one-off, and the stock holds a 15x to 16x earnings range near the analyst average target of $80.82.
$56 to $64
More likely if repair-and-remodel demand softens further, DIY paint keeps falling high single digits, tariffs or commodity inflation erode margin, Home Depot or channel inventory slows orders, or investors discount the refund-driven EPS raise and rerate toward 13x.
MAS AI technical analysis
MAS AI technical analysis starts from the $71.48 July 31, 2026 close and the $58.17 to $83.64 52-week range. The stock fell about 12% off the July 28, 2026 high of $83.64 after the Q2 report, closing below the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages while holding above the 100-day and 200-day trend lines. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages, RSI, volume, and support or resistance should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.48 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 196.39 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $68.50 to $70.10 | The 200-day moving average sat near $68.51 and the 100-day near $70.11 on July 31, 2026, forming the first meaningful support cluster below price. |
| Deeper support | $62 to $64 | Barchart 9-day and 14-day RSI near 32 and 38 were weak but not deeply oversold, and a move toward the $62 to $64 area would test the 2026 consolidation zone below the 100-day. |
| Near resistance | $74.50 to $75.50 | The 50-day moving average near $74.88 on Barchart is the first overhead zone that MAS needs to reclaim to repair the short-term trend. |
| Next resistance | $77 to $78 | The 20-day moving average near $77.47 and the 5-day near $75.78 mark the broken short-term trend, with the pre-earnings level near $81.61 as the next target. |
| 52-week high | $83.64 | Intraday high reached on July 28, 2026, one day before the Q2 2026 report, and now the main overhead resistance. |
| Momentum | Weak, short-term bearish bias | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 38.30, 9-day RSI near 32.09, and a 14-day ADX near 19.74 with the negative directional index above the positive one, which favors a corrective bias until price reclaims the 50-day. |
| Volume | 9.24 million shares on July 29, 2026 | StockAnalysis history shows the earnings-day drop to $72.56 came on about 9.24 million shares versus a 20-day average near 2.8 million, confirming institutional selling pressure. |
| Volatility | High near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 55%, so position sizing should account for sharp moves around reports, tariffs, commodity prices, and housing headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $68.50, then $66 | A daily close below the 200-day moving average near $68.51 would break the longer-term uptrend; a move toward $66 or below would turn the setup into a deeper correction. |
MAS AI trading strategy
The MAS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a branded home improvement stock in a post-earnings pullback. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, updated filings, live chart confirmation, and a clear stop or thesis invalidation level.
Wait for MAS to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $74.88 and then hold above the $77 to $78 broken-trend zone with improving volume. Confirmation should include stable plumbing and pro paint commentary, no cut to the $4.40 to $4.60 adjusted EPS guidance, and signs that the tariff refund is not masking softer demand.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day area or a close below the 200-day moving average near $68.51 should invalidate the long-side setup.
If MAS pulls back toward the $68.50 to $70.10 support cluster, compare the selloff with verified fundamentals: Plumbing segment margin, Decorative Architectural margin, Behr pro and DIY demand, Hansgrohe international growth, cash flow, and repurchase pace.
Do not average down if the weakness is tied to a guidance cut, weaker repair-and-remodel demand, Home Depot order pressure, or tariff-driven margin deterioration.
Track Q3 2026 sales, segment operating margin, adjusted EPS, operating cash flow, repurchases, net debt, retailer concentration commentary, the payback of Q2 strategic investments, and Section 301 tariff effects after the May 2026 investor day targets.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven only by buybacks or one-time refunds and not matched by organic sales growth, margin durability, cash conversion, or per-share value creation.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Masco for trusted branded products that make bathrooms, kitchens, paint projects, hardware upgrades, and spas easier to buy, install, and maintain through retail and trade channels.
The moat is brand, shelf space, channel trust, product breadth, installer familiarity, and scale. Behr, Delta, hansgrohe, Liberty, and HotSpring are hard to displace, but not immune to private label or retailer bargaining power.
The thesis can fail if repair-and-remodel demand stays soft, DIY paint keeps falling, Home Depot concentration increases pricing pressure, tariffs and commodities raise costs, strategic investments do not pay back, or buybacks happen at prices that do not create value.
Management is emphasizing consumer brands, productivity, the Hansgrohe-focused international portfolio after divesting Bristan, disciplined capital return with a raised 2026 buyback and M&A budget near $1 billion, and long-term financial targets, but the Q2 strategic spending lacked detail.
Aging housing stock, home equity, smaller-ticket repair projects, water efficiency, premium fixtures, and branded paint support long-term demand, while rates, consumer budgets, and DIY softness can delay larger projects.
At roughly 16.5x TTM EPS and 12.5x trailing free cash flow, MAS offers more margin of safety than at the July 2026 high of $83.64. The base case still needs organic EPS delivery and cash conversion, not just a one-time refund and multiple expansion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAS price | $71.48 at the July 31, 2026 close, after hours $71.01 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $14.04 billion, verified as $71.48 x 196.39 million shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 196.39 million shares outstanding, down 4.66% year over year on repurchases | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales | $1.992 billion, down 3%, below the $2.09 billion consensus, excluding the impact of targeted strategic investments roughly in line with prior year | Masco Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted operating profit $482 million up 17%, operating margin 24.2%, adjusted EPS $1.64 up 26% versus consensus $1.31, gross margin 43.8% | Masco Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| IEEPA tariff refund benefit | Net benefit of approximately $95 million in Q2 2026 and an estimated $85 million for the full year, essentially all in the Plumbing segment | Masco Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.40 to $4.60, raised from $4.10 to $4.30, versus consensus near $4.28, assuming a 200 million average diluted share count and a 24.5% effective tax rate | Masco Q2 2026 earnings release guidance update | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Plumbing sales down 3% with operating profit up 26% to $361 million and margin at 27%; Decorative Architectural sales down 4% with operating profit of $148 million and margin at 22.6% | Masco Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $7.562 billion down 3.40%, net income attributable to Masco $810 million, TTM revenue near $7.62 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Masco FY2025 release | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue $7.62 billion, gross profit $2.84 billion, operating income $1.36 billion, net income $885 million, EPS $4.33 | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $548 million, total debt $3.493 billion, net cash negative $2.945 billion or about $15.00 per share | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | July 29, 2026 |
| Liquidity and leverage | About $1.5 billion of liquidity, gross debt to EBITDA of 2.1x at Q2 2026 quarter end | Masco Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Operating cash flow $1.291 billion, capital expenditures $165 million, free cash flow $1.126 billion over TTM, with about $1 billion earmarked for 2026 repurchases or acquisitions | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $454 million returned to shareholders in Q2 2026, including about $390 million of repurchases under the $300 million accelerated share repurchase program | Masco Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 16.51x trailing EPS, 16.21x forward EPS, 1.84x sales, 12.47x free cash flow, 1.79% dividend yield, 4.66% buyback yield, 6.45% shareholder yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $80.82 across 20 analysts, low $68 and high $96, median $79, roughly 13% above the current price | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell out of 20 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Post-earnings analyst actions | Evercore ISI downgraded to In Line at $78 from $86, Barclays $79 Equal Weight, Citi $77 Hold, Baird $80 Neutral, BofA $68 Underperform, UBS $94 Buy, Goldman Sachs $96 Buy, Oppenheimer $88 Buy | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.63 million shares short, 4.39% of shares outstanding, down from 10.86 million the prior month, 3.67 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $1.28, yield 1.79%, 12 consecutive years of growth, payout ratio near 29.6% | StockAnalysis.com dividend data | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $58.17 to $83.64, 20-day SMA near $77.47, 50-day SMA near $74.88, 100-day SMA near $70.11, 200-day SMA near $68.51, 14-day RSI near 38.30 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week high and pullback | 52-week high of $83.64 reached on July 28, 2026, followed by an 11% single-day drop to $72.56 on July 29, 2026 earnings on about 9.24 million shares | StockAnalysis.com price history | July 31, 2026 |
This MAS AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Masco Corporation. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong or become outdated after new earnings, tariff, commodity, housing, or market developments. Always verify current filings, live market data, risk tolerance, and portfolio context before making financial decisions.
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