The Southern Company research snapshot
SO AI stock analysis currently reads The Southern Company as a durable regulated utility and contracted power business with strong Southeast demand, visible capital investment, and a valuation that already reflects much of the utility growth story. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, SO closed at $97.29, carried a verified market capitalization near $109.68 billion, and traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The main debate is whether data-center and economic-development load growth, approved generation projects, and rate-base growth can offset high debt, negative free cash flow, customer affordability pressure, and interest expense. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$97.29
Market cap
$109.68 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality regulated utility with Southeast load growth and balance-sheet risk
Trend status
Constructive, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but close to resistance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Southern Company provides essential electric and gas service across large Southeast markets, plus contracted power and infrastructure assets. Demand is tied to reliability, population growth, economic development, electrification, and data-center load. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated service territories, grid scale, generation assets, customer density, local operating history, and regulatory relationships. Pricing power is protected but capped by regulators. | High |
| Management | Chris Womack and team are managing a heavy 2026 to 2030 capital plan, new regulated generation, DOE loan support, equity funding, and large-load contracting. Execution quality should be judged by cost recovery and per-share EPS growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $29.6 billion and FY2025 reported net income was $4.341 billion. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS rose to $1.32 from $1.23, helped by customer usage, utility investment, and wholesale revenues. | High |
| Valuation | At $97.29, SO screened near 24.88x TTM EPS, 2.95x book value, a 3.12% dividend yield, and negative FCF yield because capital spending exceeded operating cash flow. The audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull mechanical anchors near $92, $119, and $136. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SO traded above its 50-day average near $93.93 and 200-day average near $92.75, with RSI near 58.82. Momentum is positive, but resistance is close after the July 7 close. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Regulated utility earnings are defensive, but the company has high debt, negative free cash flow during the capital cycle, rate-case risk, fuel and storm cost exposure, affordability pressure, and execution risk on new resources. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and third-party market data are rich. Return confidence is medium because rates, regulation, equity issuance, and load growth assumptions drive the stock. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SO looks like a visible utility growth and income compounder, not a deep bargain. Certainty improves if EPS guidance, rate recovery, balance-sheet funding, and large-load contracts remain aligned. | Medium |
SO AI stock forecast
The SO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because The Southern Company combines stable regulated demand with capital-heavy growth and rate-sensitive valuation. Using the $97.29 price reference, the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint near $4.55, and the audited three-year model, mechanical anchors are about $92 in a bear case, $119 in a base case, and $136 in a bullish case before dividends. These ranges are not promises.
$128 to $138 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 9%, regulators approve recovery of new generation and grid investment, data-center and industrial load converts into contracted demand, Treasury yields ease, and investors value SO near a low-20s forward earnings multiple.
$112 to $122 before dividends
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.60 remains intact, EPS compounds near the 7% to 8% long-term target, dividend growth stays modest, and the market values SO near 21x forward earnings.
$88 to $96 before dividends
More likely if interest rates rise, regulators limit cost recovery, equity issuance weighs on per-share growth, large-load commitments slow, fuel or storm costs pressure bills, or utility multiples compress.
SO AI technical analysis
SO AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7, 2026 close of $97.29, a 50-day moving average near $93.93, a 200-day moving average near $92.75, RSI near 58.82, and 20-day average volume near 6.72 million shares. The trend remains positive while price holds above the moving-average cluster, but a failed move through the high-$90s would weaken near-term momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $97.29 | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends listed the July 7, 2026 close at $97.29. |
| Immediate support | $93 to $94 | This band brackets the reported 50-day moving average near $93.93 and is the first trend support zone. |
| Major support | $91 to $93 | The 200-day moving average near $92.75 sits inside this range, making it a key longer-trend reference. |
| Deeper support | $88 to $90 | A pullback into this zone would test whether investors still defend the utility growth and dividend setup. |
| Near resistance | $98 to $100 | SO traded into the high-$90s on July 7. A clean close above this zone would improve breakout evidence. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $93.93, 200-day near $92.75 | Price above both averages supports the current trend, but the setup would weaken if SO closes back below the cluster. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.82 | Momentum is positive but not extreme. Confirmation should come from price holding above support and volume expanding on advances. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 6.72 million shares | Volume matters around the July 30, 2026 earnings date, rate-case news, Treasury yield moves, and capital-plan updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.33 | SO has lower market beta, but utility stocks can still reprice quickly when rates, regulation, or financing assumptions change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $92, then below $88 | A sustained close below the moving-average cluster would weaken the constructive setup. A break below $88 would challenge the broader trend framework. |
SO AI trading strategy
The SO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with 2026 EPS guidance, Treasury yields, rate-case outcomes, debt issuance, equity funding, dividend coverage, large-load contracts, storm costs, fuel cost recovery, and capital-project execution.
Watch for SO to hold above $93 to $94 and then break above $98 to $100 on volume above recent averages. Confirmation is stronger if Treasury yields are stable, Q2 earnings keep 2026 guidance intact, and no adverse regulatory update appears.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $92 should reduce trend confidence, especially if rates rise or funding updates imply more dilution.
If SO pulls back toward $88 to $90 without a guidance cut or regulatory shock, compare dividend yield, adjusted EPS guidance, rate-base growth, debt funding, and peer utility multiples before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because capital-intensive utilities can keep falling when allowed returns, customer bills, or bond-market funding conditions deteriorate.
Track 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.60, the 2028 adjusted EPS guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45, the 2026 to 2030 capital plan, large-load contracting, DOE loan execution, rate-case outcomes, debt costs, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage, equity issuance, or multiple expansion rather than authorized utility returns and real load growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Southern Company because homes, businesses, factories, hospitals, and data centers need reliable electricity and gas service. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment into earnings when regulators allow cost recovery and fair returns.
SO has regulated service territories, generation and grid scale, customer density, local operating knowledge, regulatory relationships, and long-lived assets. The moat is durable, but returns are set through regulation rather than open-ended pricing power.
The thesis fails if rates stay high, regulators reject recovery, customer bill pressure grows, storm or fuel costs rise, capital spending requires more equity than expected, or data-center demand does not convert into profitable contracted load.
Chris Womack leads a utility that is trying to serve faster Southeast load growth while maintaining affordability and credit quality. The key test is whether management can fund and execute new resources without diluting per-share value.
Southern Company sits inside grid modernization, electrification, Southeast population growth, reshoring, data-center power demand, and reliability investment. These trends are favorable, but utility shareholders only benefit when regulators approve returns and customers can absorb bills.
At about 24.9x TTM EPS and 2.95x book value, SO already prices in high-quality utility execution. Margin of safety improves if price retreats toward support while guidance, recovery, funding access, and large-load contracts remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $97.29 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis SO overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $109.68 billion, verified against price times shares | StockAnalysis SO statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.13 billion shares | StockAnalysis SO statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $29.6 billion company release, $29.553 billion StockAnalysis | Southern Company FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $4.341 billion reported net income | Southern Company FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $30.18 billion revenue and $3.91 EPS | StockAnalysis SO statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $981 million cash and $76.01 billion total debt | StockAnalysis SO statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.32 adjusted EPS, up from $1.23 in Q1 2025 | Southern Company Q1 2026 earnings package | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.50 to $4.60 projected full-year adjusted EPS | Southern Company Q1 2026 earnings package | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day $93.93, 200-day $92.75, RSI 58.82, beta 0.33 | StockAnalysis SO statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This SO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, financing, weather, fuel costs, market multiples, or company disclosures change.
