The Southern Company research snapshot
SO AI stock analysis currently reads The Southern Company as a durable regulated utility and contracted power business with accelerating Southeast demand, a fast-filling large-load pipeline, and a valuation that already reflects much of the growth story. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, SO closed at $94.54 on July 31, 2026, carried a verified market capitalization near $108.76 billion, and traded around its 50-day moving average while staying above its 200-day average. The July 30, 2026 Q2 report delivered adjusted EPS of $1.13, up from $0.92 a year earlier, with over 17 gigawatts of contracted large-load demand including a 3.2 gigawatt 25-year OpenAI contract. The main debate is whether data-center and industrial load, approved generation projects, and rate-base growth can offset high debt, negative free cash flow, customer affordability pressure, equity dilution, and interest expense. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$94.54
Market cap
$108.76 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality Southeast regulated utility with accelerating large-load demand and heavy debt-funded growth
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, sitting at the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day, after a strong Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Southern Company provides essential electric and gas service across large Southeast markets, plus contracted power and infrastructure assets. Demand is tied to reliability, population growth, economic development, electrification, and data-center load. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated service territories, grid scale, generation assets, customer density, local operating history, and regulatory relationships. Pricing power is protected but capped by regulators. | High |
| Management | Chris Womack and CFO David Poroch are executing a heavy capital plan with 10 gigawatts of approved new generation, over 17 gigawatts of contracted large-load demand, equity funding through ATMs, DOE loan support, and a 17% FFO to debt target by 2029. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $29.55 billion and FY2025 reported net income was $4.34 billion. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS rose to $1.13 from $0.92, H1 2026 adjusted EPS rose to $2.46 from $2.15, and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.60 is now projected at or near the top of the range. | High |
| Valuation | At $94.54, SO screened near 22.76x TTM EPS, 20.22x forward EPS, 2.75x book value, a 3.22% dividend yield, and negative free cash flow yield because capital spending exceeded operating cash flow. The scenario model produced bear, base, and bull mechanical anchors near $80, $99, and $115. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SO closed at $94.54 on July 31, 2026, at its 50-day average near $94.52 and above its 200-day average near $92.84, with RSI near 46.35. The setup is neutral to constructive but still range-bound below the $100.84 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Regulated utility earnings are defensive, but the company has high debt, negative free cash flow during the capital cycle, equity issuance, rate-case and affordability politics, fuel and storm cost exposure, and execution risk on new resources. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and third-party market data are rich. Return confidence is medium because rates, regulation, equity issuance, large-load contract timing, and interest costs drive the stock. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SO looks like a visible utility growth and income compounder, not a deep bargain. Certainty improves if EPS guidance, rate recovery, balance-sheet funding, and large-load contracts remain aligned with the 17% FFO to debt path. | Medium |
SO AI stock forecast
The SO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because The Southern Company combines stable regulated demand with capital-heavy growth and rate-sensitive valuation. Using the $94.54 price reference, the FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.60, consensus FY2026 EPS near $4.58, and an 18x to 23x forward earnings band, mechanical anchors are about $80 in a bear case, $99 in a base case, and $115 in a bullish case before dividends. These ranges are not promises.
$108 to $122 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS beats the top of guidance, data-center and industrial load converts into contracted demand, regulators approve recovery of new generation, Treasury yields ease, equity dilution stays modest, and investors value SO near a low-20s forward earnings multiple.
$94 to $104 before dividends
More likely if FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.60 holds at the top, EPS compounds toward consensus FY2027 EPS near $4.92, dividend growth stays modest, and the market values SO near 20x forward earnings.
$75 to $85 before dividends
More likely if interest rates rise, regulators limit cost recovery or data-center costs become political, equity issuance weighs on per-share growth, large-load commitments slow, fuel or storm costs pressure bills, or utility multiples compress.
SO AI technical analysis
SO AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $94.54, a 50-day moving average near $94.52, a 200-day moving average near $92.84, RSI near 46.35, a 20-day average volume near 4.43 million shares, and a 52-week range of $83.80 to $100.84. The trend remains positive while price holds above the moving-average cluster, but SO is still below the $100.84 52-week high and needs a volume-backed break to extend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.54 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $94.54. |
| Immediate support | $93 to $94 | This band brackets the reported 50-day moving average near $94.52 and is the first trend support zone. |
| Major support | $91 to $93 | The 200-day moving average near $92.84 sits inside this range, making it a key longer-trend reference. |
| Deeper support | $88 to $90 | A pullback into this zone would test whether investors still defend the utility growth and dividend setup. |
| 52-week low | $83.80 | The 52-week low near $83.80 is the reference for a major trend break if large-load or funding news turns negative. |
| Near resistance | $96 to $98 | SO traded around $94.54 on July 31 after the Q2 report. A clean close above this zone would improve breakout evidence. |
| Major resistance | $100 to $101 | The 52-week high near $100.84 is the main breakout level above the current range. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $94.52, 200-day near $92.84 | Price sits at the 50-day average and above the 200-day average. The setup would weaken if SO closes back below the cluster. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46.35 | Momentum is neutral after the July report. Confirmation should come from price holding support and volume expanding on advances. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 4.43 million shares | Volume matters around the next earnings date, rate-case news, Treasury yield moves, large-load announcements, and capital-plan updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.33 | SO has lower market beta, but utility stocks can still reprice quickly when rates, regulation, or financing assumptions change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $92, then below $88 | A sustained close below the moving-average cluster would weaken the constructive setup. A break below $88, and then below the $83.80 52-week low, would challenge the broader trend framework. |
SO AI trading strategy
The SO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with FY2026 EPS guidance, Treasury yields, rate-case outcomes, debt issuance, equity funding, dividend coverage, large-load contract timing, storm costs, fuel cost recovery, and capital-project execution.
Watch for SO to hold above $93 to $94 and then break above $96 to $98, and ideally the $100 to $101 area, on volume above recent averages. Confirmation is stronger if FY2026 EPS guidance stays at the top, Treasury yields are stable, and no adverse regulatory or large-load update appears.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $92 should reduce trend confidence, especially if rates rise or funding updates imply more dilution.
If SO pulls back toward $91 to $93 or the $88 to $90 zone without a guidance cut or regulatory shock, compare dividend yield, adjusted EPS guidance, rate-base growth, debt funding, equity issuance, and peer utility multiples before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because capital-intensive utilities can keep falling when allowed returns, customer bills, or bond-market funding conditions deteriorate.
Track FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.60, consensus FY2027 EPS near $4.92, the over 17 gigawatts of contracted large-load demand, the additional 8 gigawatts in late stages, generation RFPs, the 17% FFO to debt target by 2029, remaining equity needs, rate-case outcomes, debt costs, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage, equity issuance, or multiple expansion rather than authorized utility returns and real load growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Southern Company because homes, businesses, factories, hospitals, and data centers need reliable electricity and gas service. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment into earnings when regulators allow cost recovery and fair returns.
SO has regulated service territories, generation and grid scale, customer density, local operating knowledge, regulatory relationships, and long-lived assets. The moat is durable, but returns are set through regulation rather than open-ended pricing power.
The thesis fails if rates stay high, regulators reject recovery or data-center costs become political, customer bill pressure grows, storm or fuel costs rise, capital spending requires more equity than expected, or data-center demand does not convert into profitable contracted load.
Chris Womack leads a utility that is serving faster Southeast load growth with over 17 gigawatts of contracted demand, 10 gigawatts of approved new generation, and a 17% FFO to debt target by 2029. The key test is funding and executing new resources without diluting per-share value.
Southern Company sits inside grid modernization, electrification, Southeast population growth, reshoring, data-center power demand, and reliability investment. These trends are favorable, but utility shareholders only benefit when regulators approve returns and customers can absorb bills.
At about 22.76x TTM EPS and 20.22x forward EPS, SO already prices in high-quality utility execution and fast load growth. Margin of safety improves if price retreats toward support while guidance, recovery, funding access, and large-load contracts remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.54 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis SO overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $108.76 billion, verified against price times shares | StockAnalysis SO overview and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.15 billion shares | StockAnalysis SO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $29.55 billion revenue and $4.34 billion net income | StockAnalysis SO overview and financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $30.18 billion revenue and $4.15 EPS | StockAnalysis SO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $2.98 billion cash and $77.09 billion total debt | StockAnalysis SO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.13 adjusted EPS, up from $0.92 in Q2 2025 | Southern Company Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.50 to $4.60 projected, now at or near the top of the range | Southern Company Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Contracted large-load demand | Over 17 GW contracted through the mid-2030s, including a 3.2 GW 25-year OpenAI contract | Southern Company Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, 24 analysts, average price target $100.88 | StockAnalysis SO forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day $94.52, 200-day $92.84, RSI 46.35, beta 0.33 | StockAnalysis SO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This SO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, financing, weather, fuel costs, market multiples, large-load contract timing, or company disclosures change.
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