Duke Energy Corporation research snapshot
DUK AI stock analysis reads Duke Energy as a large regulated electric and gas utility with steady earnings visibility, heavy capital needs, and a valuation that already reflects the defensive utility story. Duke Energy serves 8.7 million electric customers and 1.6 million natural gas customers, reported FY2025 total operating revenues of $32.237 billion and reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 after Q1 2026, when it posted adjusted EPS of $1.93. The stock closed at $125.43 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization of about $97.78 billion, and Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026. The DUK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price prediction because allowed returns, customer affordability, interest rates, debt funding, load growth, and regulatory outcomes drive the equity value. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$125.43
Market cap
$97.78 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
High-quality regulated utility at a full valuation with rate risk
Trend status
Neutral, below the 20-day and 100-day averages, near the 50-day, above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Duke Energy sells essential regulated power and gas service across large territories in the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and related gas markets, with 8.7 million electric and 1.6 million gas customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated monopoly service territories, grid and generation scale, nuclear and gas assets, customer density, and regulatory relationships rather than consumer brand pricing power. | High |
| Management | Harry Sideris, CEO since 2025, and CFO Brian Savoy closed $5.3 billion of strategic transactions in Q1 2026, secured 7.6 GW of economic development projects under electric service agreements, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 total operating revenues rose to $32.237 billion with reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS was $1.93. TTM revenue is about $32.72 billion with TTM EPS of $6.52. | High |
| Valuation | At $125.43, DUK screens near 19.2x TTM EPS, 1.82x book value, a 5.20% earnings yield, a 3.46% dividend yield, and a negative free cash flow yield due to the capital program. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed near the 50-day average of $125.55 and above the 200-day average of $124.68, but below the 20-day and 100-day averages, with RSI near 45.73 and the price below the $134.49 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium to high because regulated earnings are defensive, but the $103 billion capital plan, balance sheet, rate cases, storm costs, fuel costs, transformer and equipment shortages, and affordability politics can pressure returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and data coverage are rich. Return confidence is lower because utility stocks are sensitive to rates, regulation, and the August 4, 2026 report. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DUK is a visible regulated growth and income setup, not a deep bargain. Certainty improves if earnings growth stays near guidance while financing costs and bill pressure stay contained. | Medium |
DUK AI stock forecast
The DUK AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Duke Energy combines stable regulated demand with large capital spending and rate-sensitive valuation. Using the $125.43 price reference, TTM EPS of $6.52, and a three-year model, mechanical anchors are about $114 in a bear case, $143 in a base case, and $176 in a bullish case before dividends. These are not promises. The bullish, base, and bearish cases depend on whether Duke can convert its capital plan, 7.6 GW of economic development load, and regulatory agreements into approved earnings without overburdening customers or the balance sheet.
$160 to $180 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near the high end of the 5% to 7% long-term range, regulators approve recovery of grid and generation investment, interest rates ease, the balance sheet remains financeable, and AI, manufacturing, and electrification demand supports load growth.
$134 to $150 before dividends
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 remains intact, earnings compound in the mid-single digits, dividend growth continues near recent levels, and the market values DUK near an 18x to 19x multiple. This range brackets the analyst consensus target of $138.84.
$106 to $120 before dividends
More likely if rates rise, regulators limit allowed returns or cost recovery, the new U.S. power pledge on customer bills becomes binding, storm costs or fuel costs increase, debt funding becomes more expensive, or transformer and equipment shortages slow the grid plan.
DUK AI technical analysis
DUK AI technical analysis is neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis and Barchart showed a July 31, 2026 close of $125.43, a $124.63 to $126.38 day range, a $113.90 to $134.49 52-week range, a 50-day moving average near $125.55, a 200-day moving average near $124.68, a 20-day moving average near $126.94, RSI near 45.73, and 20-day average volume near 3.54 million shares. The stock sits between the 50-day and 200-day averages and below the shorter-term averages, so the trend is neutral until price reclaims the $127 zone or loses the $124 area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $125.43 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $125.43, down 0.67% on the day, with a $124.63 to $126.38 range. |
| Immediate support | $124 to $126 | This area brackets the 200-day moving average near $124.68 and the 50-day moving average near $125.55. |
| Major support | $114 to $117 | This range aligns with the lower part of the three-year bear-case model and sits above the 52-week low. |
| Deeper support | $113 to $114 | StockAnalysis listed a 52-week low of $113.90, making this the deeper trend failure reference. |
| Near resistance | $127 to $130 | This area includes the 20-day moving average near $126.94 and the 100-day moving average near $126.98, which capped the recent bounce. |
| Upper resistance | $134 to $137 | The $134.49 52-week high is the next major resistance area for a breakout attempt. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $126.94, 50-day near $125.55, 100-day near $126.98, 200-day near $124.68 | Price is above the 200-day average but below the 20-day and 100-day averages, so the trend lacks short-term confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.73 | Momentum is neutral. A move through $127 to $130 would improve trend evidence; a break below $124 would turn it bearish. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.54 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around the August 4, 2026 earnings date, rate-case news, Treasury yield moves, and capital-plan updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.37 | DUK has low market beta, but utility rate and regulatory headlines can still create sharp sector moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $124, then below $114 | A sustained close below the 200-day moving average near $124.68 would weaken the neutral trend. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the defensive setup. |
DUK AI trading strategy
The DUK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with the August 4, 2026 Q2 report, 2026 EPS guidance, Treasury yields, debt issuance, dividend coverage, storm-cost disclosures, fuel cost recovery, economic development load, and capital-plan execution.
Watch for DUK to reclaim the $127 area and then break above $134 to $137 with stable Treasury yields, intact 2026 guidance, and constructive regulatory updates, including the Duke Carolinas agreement and the data center growth framework.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 200-day average near $124.68 should reduce trend confidence, especially if rates rise or a rate-case decision limits cost recovery.
If DUK pulls back toward $114 to $117 while guidance and dividend coverage remain intact, compare the lower price with earnings yield, the 3.46% dividend yield, and the approved regulated asset growth outlook.
Do not treat every pullback as attractive if the decline is caused by higher financing costs, storm liabilities, political pressure on customer bills, or weaker allowed returns.
Track 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80, the $103 billion five-year capital plan, the August 4, 2026 Q2 report, rate-case outcomes, debt maturities, the U.S. power pledge, transformer and equipment availability, and load growth from the 7.6 GW of projects under electric service agreements.
Position sizing should reflect that DUK is a capital-intensive regulated utility with negative free cash flow during the investment cycle, not a guaranteed-income instrument.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Duke Energy because homes, businesses, factories, hospitals, and data centers need reliable electricity and gas service. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment into earnings when regulators allow cost recovery and fair returns.
DUK has regulated monopoly territories, grid and generation scale, nuclear and gas assets, customer density, local operating knowledge, and long regulatory relationships. Returns are protected but capped by regulators.
The thesis fails if rates rise faster than allowed returns, regulators reject cost recovery, customer bill pressure intensifies, the U.S. power pledge caps recovery, storm costs rise, transformer shortages slow the plan, or load growth does not justify the capital plan.
Harry Sideris became CEO in 2025 and is steering a larger capital plan, strategic asset sales including $5.3 billion closed in Q1 2026, and affordability messaging. The key management test is whether funding, regulators, customers, and shareholders stay aligned.
Electrification, AI data centers, manufacturing reshoring, grid hardening, nuclear reliability, renewables, and gas generation support long-term utility investment. The offset is that customers and regulators must absorb the cost, and grid equipment supply is strained.
At $125.43, DUK trades around 19.2x trailing EPS and a 3.46% dividend yield. Margin of safety improves if the stock trades closer to $114 to $117 or if earnings growth accelerates without higher financing risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUK quote reference | $125.43 close on July 31, 2026, with a $124.63 to $126.38 day range and $113.90 to $134.49 52-week range | StockAnalysis DUK overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $97.78 billion reported and $97.79 billion calculated from $125.43 x 779.60 million shares, with 0.01% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis DUK overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 779.60 million current shares outstanding, up 0.52% year over year | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | $32.237 billion FY2025 total operating revenues, $4.912 billion net income available to common stockholders, and reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31 | Duke Energy FY2025 earnings release filed with SEC | August 2, 2026 |
| StockAnalysis FY2025 revenue presentation | $31.79 billion FY2025 revenue, up 6.20% from $29.93 billion, with net income of $4.97 billion | StockAnalysis DUK overview and forecast | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financial snapshot | $32.72 billion TTM revenue, $5.08 billion TTM net income, $6.52 EPS, and 15.71% profit margin | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.14 billion cash and equivalents, $91.21 billion total debt, and negative $89.07 billion net cash position, or about $114.25 per share | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | Q1 2026 reported EPS of $1.97 and adjusted EPS of $1.93, total operating revenues of $9.178 billion, net income available to common stockholders of $1.536 billion, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 | Duke Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Customer and capacity footprint | Electric utilities serve 8.7 million customers and own 55,700 MW of energy capacity; gas utilities serve 1.6 million customers | Duke Energy investor relations | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital plan and growth target | $103 billion five-year capital plan, 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030, and long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2030 | Duke Energy FY2025 earnings release filed with SEC | August 2, 2026 |
| Economic development pipeline | 7.6 GW of economic development projects secured under electric service agreements and $5.3 billion of strategic transactions closed in Q1 2026 | Duke Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation checks | $4.34 annual dividend rate ($1.085 per quarter, raised by $0.02 on July 14, 2026), 3.46% dividend yield, ex-dividend date August 14, 2026, 19.24x verified P/E, 1.82x verified P/B, and negative 3.37% FCF yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis DUK statistics, and Duke Energy dividend announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $138.84 across 23 analysts, low $131 and high $146, median $139 | StockAnalysis DUK forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 9 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell out of 23 analysts | StockAnalysis DUK forecast recommendation trends | July 23, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BTIG Buy $139 to $141, KeyBanc upgrade to Overweight $139, Morgan Stanley Hold $136 to $138, Wells Fargo Hold $136, BMO Capital Buy $134, Truist Buy $138, JPMorgan Neutral $141 | StockAnalysis DUK forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 23, 2026 |
| Short interest | 17.72 million shares short, 2.27% of shares outstanding, and 4.50 days to cover | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Regulatory and development news | Duke Energy Carolinas reached an agreement with North Carolina Public Staff on a lower-cost path; Duke is using a Customer Protection Plus framework for data center growth; and Duke agreed to terminate its North Carolina offshore wind lease | PRNewswire and Reuters via StockAnalysis news | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical references | 20-day moving average near $126.94, 50-day moving average near $125.55, 100-day moving average near $126.98, 200-day moving average near $124.68, RSI 45.73, beta 0.37, and 20-day average volume near 3.54 million shares | StockAnalysis and Barchart technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This DUK AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, capital markets, or company fundamentals change.
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