Duke Energy Corporation research snapshot
DUK AI stock analysis currently reads Duke Energy as a large regulated electric and gas utility with steady earnings visibility, heavy capital needs, and a valuation that already prices in much of the defensive utility story. Duke Energy serves 8.7 million electric customers and 1.6 million natural gas customers, reported FY2025 operating revenue of $32.237 billion, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 after Q1 2026. The DUK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price prediction because allowed returns, customer affordability, interest rates, debt funding, load growth, and regulatory outcomes drive the equity value. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$128.22
Market cap
$99.96 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality regulated utility with moderate valuation and financing risk
Trend status
Constructive, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Duke Energy sells essential power and gas service across large regulated territories in the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and related gas markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated monopoly service territories, grid scale, generation assets, customer density, and regulatory relationships rather than consumer brand pricing power. | High |
| Management | Harry Sideris and team are focused on execution of the $103 billion five-year capital plan, balance-sheet funding, strategic asset sales, and customer affordability. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $32.237 billion and net income available to common stockholders rose to $4.912 billion. TTM revenue reached about $32.72 billion and TTM EPS was $6.52. | High |
| Valuation | At $128.22, DUK screens near 19.67x TTM EPS, 1.87x book value, a 5.09% earnings yield, a 3.32% dividend yield, and a negative FCF yield due to the capital program. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day average near $125.12 and 200-day average near $124.37, with RSI near 56.13 and price below the $134.49 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because regulated earnings are defensive, but the balance sheet, capital spending, rate cases, storm costs, fuel costs, and affordability politics can pressure returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and data coverage are rich. Return confidence is lower because utility stocks are sensitive to rates and regulatory outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DUK is a visible regulated growth and income setup, not a deep bargain. Certainty improves if earnings growth stays near guidance while financing costs and bill pressure stay contained. | Medium |
DUK AI stock forecast
The DUK AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Duke Energy combines stable regulated demand with large capital spending and rate-sensitive valuation. Using the $128.22 price reference, TTM EPS of $6.52, and the audited three-year model, mechanical anchors are about $114 in a bear case, $145.50 in a base case, and $167.70 in a bullish case before dividends. These are not promises. The bullish, base, and bearish cases depend on whether Duke can convert its capital plan, economic development pipeline, and load growth into approved earnings without overburdening customers or the balance sheet.
$158 to $170 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near the high end of the 5% to 7% long-term range, regulators approve recovery of grid and generation investment, interest rates ease, the balance sheet remains financeable, and customer growth from AI, manufacturing, and electrification supports load demand.
$138 to $148 before dividends
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 remains intact, earnings compound in the mid-single digits, dividend growth stays modest, and the market values DUK near a high-teens earnings multiple.
$108 to $116 before dividends
More likely if rates rise, regulators limit allowed returns or cost recovery, storm costs or fuel costs increase, debt funding becomes more expensive, or customer bill pressure weakens the capital-plan thesis.
DUK AI technical analysis
DUK AI technical analysis is constructive but not risk-free as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7, 2026 close of $128.22, a $126.92 to $130.37 day range, a $113.90 to $134.49 52-week range, a 50-day moving average near $125.12, a 200-day moving average near $124.37, RSI near 56.13, and 20-day average volume near 3.84 million shares. The setup supports a positive trend while the stock holds above the moving-average cluster, but resistance remains below the prior high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $128.22 | StockAnalysis listed the July 7, 2026 close at $128.22, up 1.79% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $124 to $126 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $125.12 and the 200-day moving average near $124.37. |
| Major support | $114 to $116 | This range aligns with the lower part of the three-year bear-case model and sits above the 52-week low. |
| Deeper support | $113 to $114 | StockAnalysis listed a 52-week low of $113.90, making this the deeper trend failure reference. |
| Near resistance | $130 to $132 | This area includes the July 7 intraday high zone and must clear for momentum to improve. |
| Upper resistance | $134 to $136 | The $134.49 52-week high is the next major resistance area for a breakout attempt. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $125.12, 200-day near $124.37 | Price above both averages supports the trend, but the averages are close together, so a break below $124 would quickly weaken confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.13 | Momentum is positive but not overbought. A move through $134 to $136 would strengthen trend evidence. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.84 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around the August 4, 2026 earnings date, rate-case news, Treasury yield moves, and capital-plan updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.37 | DUK has lower market beta, but utility-rate and regulatory headlines can still create sharp sector moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $124, then below $114 | A sustained close below the moving-average cluster would weaken the constructive trend. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the defensive setup. |
DUK AI trading strategy
The DUK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with rate-case milestones, 2026 EPS guidance, Treasury yields, debt issuance, dividend coverage, storm-cost disclosures, fuel cost recovery, economic development load, and capital-plan execution.
Watch for DUK to hold above $124 to $126 and then break above $134 to $136 with stable Treasury yields, intact 2026 guidance, and constructive regulatory updates.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $124 should reduce trend confidence, especially if rates rise or a rate-case decision limits cost recovery.
If DUK pulls back toward $114 to $116 while guidance and dividend coverage remain intact, compare the lower price with earnings yield, dividend yield, and the approved-regulated-asset growth outlook.
Do not treat every pullback as attractive if the decline is caused by higher financing costs, storm liabilities, political pressure on customer bills, or weaker allowed returns.
Track 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80, long-term 5% to 7% EPS growth, the $103 billion five-year capital plan, rate-case outcomes, debt maturities, asset sales, and load growth from economic development projects.
Position sizing should reflect that DUK is a capital-intensive regulated utility with negative free cash flow during the investment cycle, not a guaranteed-income instrument.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Duke Energy because homes, businesses, factories, hospitals, and data centers need reliable electricity and gas service. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment into earnings when regulators allow cost recovery and fair returns.
DUK has regulated monopoly territories, grid and generation scale, nuclear and gas assets, customer density, local operating knowledge, and long regulatory relationships. Returns are protected but capped by regulators.
The thesis fails if rates rise faster than allowed returns, regulators reject cost recovery, customer bill pressure intensifies, storm costs rise, debt markets become less friendly, or load growth does not justify the capital plan.
Harry Sideris became CEO in 2025 and is steering a larger capital plan, strategic asset sales, and affordability messaging. The key management test is whether funding, regulators, customers, and shareholders stay aligned.
Electrification, AI data centers, manufacturing reshoring, grid hardening, nuclear reliability, renewables, and gas generation support long-term utility investment. The offset is that customers and regulators must absorb the cost.
At $128.22, DUK trades around a high-teens to near-20x earnings multiple and a 3.32% dividend yield. Margin of safety improves if the stock trades closer to $114 to $116 or if earnings growth accelerates without higher financing risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUK quote reference | $128.22 close on July 7, 2026, with a $126.92 to $130.37 day range and $113.90 to $134.49 52-week range | StockAnalysis DUK overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $99.96 billion reported and $99.96 billion calculated from $128.22 x 779.60 million shares, with 0.00% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis DUK overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 779.60 million current shares outstanding; FY2025 diluted average shares were 777 million | StockAnalysis DUK overview and financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | $32.237 billion FY2025 operating revenue and $4.912 billion net income available to common stockholders | Duke Energy FY2025 earnings release filed with SEC | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM financial snapshot | $32.72 billion TTM revenue, $5.08 billion TTM net income, $6.52 EPS, and 15.71% profit margin | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.14 billion cash and equivalents, $91.21 billion total debt, and negative $89.07 billion net cash position | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash and debt cross-check | $245 million FY2025 cash and equivalents, $2.624 billion notes payable and commercial paper, $7.104 billion current maturities of long-term debt, and $80.108 billion long-term debt | Duke Energy FY2025 earnings release filed with SEC | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.93, total operating revenues of $9.178 billion, reported net income available to common stockholders of $1.536 billion, and reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 | Duke Energy Q1 2026 filing summary via TradingView | July 8, 2026 |
| Customer and capacity footprint | Electric utilities serve 8.7 million customers and own 55,700 MW of energy capacity; gas utilities serve 1.6 million customers | Duke Energy Q1 2026 financial results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Capital plan and growth target | $103 billion five-year capital plan, 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030, and long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2030 | Duke Energy FY2025 earnings release filed with SEC | July 8, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation checks | $4.26 annual dividend, 3.32% dividend yield, 19.67x verified P/E, 1.87x verified P/B, and negative 3.30% FCF yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis DUK statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $125.12, 200-day moving average $124.37, RSI 56.13, beta 0.37, and 20-day average volume 3.84 million shares | StockAnalysis DUK statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This DUK AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, capital markets, or company fundamentals change.
