Sempra research snapshot
SRE AI stock analysis reads Sempra as a regulated utility infrastructure compounder focused on California and Texas, with the stock pulling back to $88.55 at the July 31, 2026 close from a July high near $96. That gives a verified market capitalization near $57.89 billion, a forward PE near 17x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.05, and a dividend yield near 2.97%. Management affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80 to $5.30 and 2027 guidance of $5.10 to $5.70, and the Oncor base rate review and SDG&E TO6 settlement support higher authorized returns. The Sempra Infrastructure Partners sale is on track to close in the second or third quarter of 2026, while the Ecogas sale received antitrust approval and is expected to close in August 2026. Offsetting this are a deeply negative free cash flow near negative $5.85 billion over the trailing twelve months from the capital plan, net debt near $35.6 billion, the July 2026 ECA LNG Phase 1 refrigerant compressor delay that pushed substantial completion to the fourth quarter of 2026, and a technical picture that turned corrective below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The analysis supports a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$88.55
Market cap
$57.89 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality regulated utility growth franchise at a more reasonable price after a pullback
Trend status
Corrective pullback, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 37
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sempra owns essential electric and gas infrastructure serving large California and Texas markets, with trailing twelve month revenue near $13.56 billion and earnings near $1.93 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is strongest in regulated service territories, network assets, scale, and customer necessity. Oncor adds Texas load growth, while Sempra Infrastructure adds project optionality with more financing and execution risk. | High |
| Management | Jeffrey W. Martin is executing a pure-play utility strategy. Q1 2026 GAAP earnings rose to $1.58 per share from $1.39, adjusted EPS rose to $1.51 from $1.44, guidance was affirmed, Oncor won a base rate review with a 9.75% authorized ROE and 43.5% equity layer, and the SI Partners and Ecogas transactions are progressing. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $13.702 billion, up 3.92%, with net income of $1.796 billion down 36.24% from 2024. TTM revenue is $13.555 billion, TTM net income $1.927 billion, and free cash flow is negative at about negative $5.85 billion because of the record capital program. | High |
| Valuation | At $88.55, SRE trades near 30.1x trailing EPS, 17.0x forward earnings, 17.5x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.05, about 1.8x book value, and a 2.97% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SRE closed at $88.55 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day average near $91.75 and 200-day average near $91.92, with RSI near 37 and the price near the lower Bollinger band, signaling a corrective pullback rather than a strong uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are negative free cash flow during the capital cycle, net debt near $35.6 billion, interest rates, California wildfire and affordability exposure, rate-case outcomes, the ECA LNG Phase 1 compressor delay, and transaction closing risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, the Q1 2026 earnings call, and Sempra releases. Medium for future stock returns and trading timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Sempra has durable infrastructure assets, but the stock needs disciplined funding, regulatory outcomes, and transaction execution to compound at the current valuation. | Medium |
SRE AI stock forecast
The SRE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $88.55, the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.05, and a utility-style earnings multiple range over three years. The model produced a bearish area near $83, a base area near $111, and a bullish area near $131, verified with exact decimal arithmetic. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$125 to $137
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 9%, the SI Partners sale closes on expected economics, Oncor earns near its new 9.75% authorized ROE, California rate recovery stays constructive, ECA LNG Phase 1 reaches substantial completion in the fourth quarter of 2026, and investors pay near 20x forward earnings.
$105 to $118
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 7%, the dividend stays covered, capital spending is funded without material dilution pressure, the UTM and California GRC resolve constructively, and SRE trades near 18x forward earnings.
$77 to $90
More likely if utility multiples compress, regulatory recovery disappoints, debt costs rise, free cash flow stays deeply negative, wildfire or affordability pressure rises, the ECA LNG remediation slips beyond the fourth quarter of 2026, or the SI Partners and Ecogas proceeds arrive later or lower than expected.
SRE AI technical analysis
SRE AI technical analysis is corrective as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $88.55 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 37 and the price near the lower Bollinger band. A reclaim of the $91.75 to $93.15 moving average cluster would rebuild the medium-term uptrend, while a close below the $86.50 area would open the path toward the 52-week low near $78.97.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.55 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math verified at $88.55 x 653.71 million shares. |
| Near support | $86.50 to $88.50 | The July 30 low was $88.21 and the 60-day low computed from Yahoo Finance data was near $86.48, forming a near-term support zone. |
| Structural support | $78.97 | The 52-week low reported by StockAnalysis.com at the July 31, 2026 data cutoff is the major downside reference. |
| 50-day moving average | $91.75 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day average near $91.75 on July 31, 2026, now above price. |
| 200-day moving average | $91.92 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day average near $91.92, above the current price and part of the resistance cluster. |
| Near resistance | $91.75 to $93.15 | The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages cluster near $91.75 to $93.15, forming the first overhead zone the stock must reclaim. |
| Major resistance | $101.04 | The 52-week high reported by StockAnalysis.com is the upper reference for the recovery scenario. |
| Momentum | RSI near 37, MACD negative | 14-day RSI was near 37.04 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, and the MACD line was below its signal line on Yahoo Finance data, both signaling weak near-term momentum. |
| Volume | About 2.77 million shares on July 31 | Latest volume near 2.77 million shares was close to the 20-day average near 2.67 million, so no strong accumulation or distribution signal is present yet. |
| Volatility | ATR near $1.91 | 14-day average true range near $1.91, about 2.16% of price, and 14-day historical volatility near 19%, typical for a large utility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $86.50 | A decisive close below the $86.50 support would open the path toward the 52-week low near $78.97. A daily close back above the moving average cluster near $92 would rebuild the uptrend. |
SRE AI trading strategy
The SRE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a regulated utility infrastructure stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, Treasury yields, regulatory filings, the August 6, 2026 earnings report, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for SRE to reclaim the $91.75 to $93.15 moving average cluster on above-average volume, which would signal that the July pullback is stabilizing. Confirmation is stronger if utility-sector yields are stable and the August 6 earnings report keeps 2026 guidance intact.
A failure to reclaim the moving averages followed by a close below $86.50 should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If SRE stabilizes near the $86.50 to $88.50 support zone without a guidance cut, compare dividend yield near 2.97%, adjusted EPS guidance, capital funding needs, and peer utility multiples before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because capital-intensive utilities can reprice when rates, equity issuance risk, or rate-case outcomes change.
Track the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, 2026 and 2027 adjusted EPS guidance, Oncor UTM and California GRC outcomes, debt issuance, free cash flow, dividend coverage, SI Partners and Ecogas closing milestones, and ECA LNG Phase 1 remediation progress.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage, delayed proceeds, or multiple expansion rather than authorized returns, customer growth, and funded infrastructure returns.
Investment research summary
Sempra is paid to deliver essential electric and natural gas infrastructure in large U.S. markets and to own contracted energy infrastructure. Customers pay because reliable energy delivery is non-discretionary and grid capacity is becoming more valuable.
The strongest moat comes from regulated service territories, physical networks, scale, operating history, and customer necessity. Oncor adds Texas growth exposure, while Sempra Infrastructure adds project optionality with more execution and partner risk.
The thesis fails if regulators limit recovery, wildfire or affordability costs rise, interest rates stay high, capital spending requires costly financing, the ECA LNG Phase 1 remediation slips, or the SI Partners and Ecogas proceeds arrive later or lower than expected.
Jeffrey W. Martin leads Sempra as chairman, CEO, and president. Q1 2026 GAAP EPS rose to $1.58 from $1.39 and adjusted EPS to $1.51 from $1.44, guidance was affirmed, Oncor won a higher authorized ROE, and the SI Partners and Ecogas transactions are advancing.
Sempra sits inside grid modernization, electrification, Texas load growth, California reliability investment, and long-duration energy infrastructure demand. These trends are durable, but returns depend on regulation, capital costs, customer bills, and project execution.
At about 17x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint and 1.8x book value, the stock no longer prices in aggressive growth. The margin of safety improved after the pullback, but it still depends on disciplined funding, regulatory recovery, and transaction execution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRE price | $88.55 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote page | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $57.89 billion verified as $88.55 x 653.71 million shares, 0.01% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 653.71 million shares, up 1.88% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.702 billion, up 3.92% from $13.185 billion, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com overview and financials | StockAnalysis.com and Sempra 2025 annual report | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.796 billion, down 36.24% from 2024, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com overview and financials | StockAnalysis.com and Sempra 2025 annual report | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | GAAP earnings of $1,037 million or $1.58 per share versus $906 million or $1.39 per share in Q1 2025; adjusted earnings of $991 million or $1.51 per share versus $942 million or $1.44 per share | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 7, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 adjusted EPS guidance | 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.80 to $5.30 affirmed, 2027 adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.70 affirmed, long-term EPS growth of 7% to 9% | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $796 million at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $36.433 billion at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Net cash and book value | Net cash of negative $35.637 billion, book value of $32.239 billion, book value per share of $49.26 at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $4.892 billion, capital expenditures of negative $10.737 billion, free cash flow of negative $5.845 billion over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue, TTM | SDG&E near $5.824 billion, SoCalGas near $5.999 billion, Sempra Infrastructure near $1.982 billion, total near $13.555 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 30.09x trailing PE, 16.94x forward PE, 4.27x sales, 1.79x book value, EV/EBITDA of 16.25, dividend yield of 2.97% | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 88.55 divided by the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.05 equals 17.5x, and 88.55 divided by the FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.11 equals 17.3x | financial_rigor.py exact calculator | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.63 per share, yield of 2.97%, payout ratio of 89.37%, 15 years of dividend growth, ex-dividend date June 25, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividends | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $104.81 across 20 analysts, low $93 and high $118, median $104.5 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 12 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 20 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 23, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BTIG $106, Morgan Stanley $105 to $108, BMO $103 to $102, Wells Fargo $118, J.P. Morgan $107 to $113, TD Cowen initiated at $110, Barclays $105 to $103 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $13.94B with adjusted EPS $5.11, FY2027 revenue $13.88B with adjusted EPS $5.54 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day average near $92.36, 50-day near $91.75, 100-day near $93.15, 200-day near $91.92, 14-day RSI near 37.04, 14-day ADX near 12.21 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range and short interest | 52-week range of $78.97 to $101.04, short interest of 13.66 million shares at 2.09% of float with 3.30 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Oncor base rate review | PUCT approved settlement with a 43.5% authorized equity layer, 9.75% return on equity, and 4.94% cost of debt, plus a surcharge for the January to June 2026 period | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| SDG&E TO6 settlement | FERC uncontested offer of settlement would raise SDG&E authorized base return on equity to 10.28% with a 54% hypothetical equity structure, retroactive to June 1, 2025, subject to FERC approval | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Capital plan | $65 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan, about 60% of rate base expected in Texas by the end of the decade, with about $9 billion of incremental opportunities mostly in Texas | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| ECA LNG Phase 1 status, July 2026 | First LNG production in June 2026 and first cargo shipped in early July 2026, but refrigerant compressor damage found during planned inspections pushed substantial completion to the fourth quarter of 2026, with no reduction expected in 2026 and 2027 segment earnings guidance | Sempra Infrastructure July 27, 2026 release | July 27, 2026 |
| Ecogas sale | Sale approved by the Comision Nacional Antimonopolio, expected to close in August 2026 with about $500 million in proceeds | Sempra Infrastructure July 27, 2026 release | July 27, 2026 |
| SI Partners transaction | Planned sale of a 45% equity interest in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR, about $10 billion in proceeds, expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026 after FERC, Korea, Mexico, and HSR approvals | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
This SRE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong if rates, regulation, funding access, company execution, transaction closings, market sentiment, or source data change.
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