Sempra research snapshot
SRE AI stock analysis currently reads Sempra as a regulated utility infrastructure compounder focused on California, Texas, and a reduced Sempra Infrastructure stake. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, SRE closed at $94.59, carried a verified market capitalization near $61.83 billion, and traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The setup is constructive, but the stock still depends on regulatory recovery, funding access, Oncor growth, SI Partners transaction execution, and capital discipline. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$94.59
Market cap
$61.83 billion verified and reported
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Regulated utility growth business with large capital plan and balance sheet risk
Trend status
Constructive but not extended, with price above the 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sempra owns essential electric and gas infrastructure serving large California and Texas markets, with demand tied to reliability, electrification, population growth, and grid investment. | High |
| Moat | The moat is strongest in regulated utility service territories and network assets. It is weaker in non-utility infrastructure because LNG and energy infrastructure returns depend on contracts, financing, partners, and project execution. | High |
| Management | Management is simplifying the portfolio and shifting capital toward U.S. utilities. Execution should be judged by rate recovery, Oncor investment returns, balance sheet control, dividend coverage, and the staged SI Partners sale. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $13.702 billion and earnings attributable to common shares were $1.796 billion. Q1 2026 earnings attributable to common shares rose to $1.037 billion from $906 million a year earlier. | High |
| Valuation | At $94.59, SRE traded near 32.17x TTM EPS, 18.73x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, 1.92x book value, and a 2.78% dividend yield. The audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull areas near $85, $111, and $131. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SRE traded above its 50-day average near $91.95 and 200-day average near $91.62, with RSI near 59 and near resistance around the mid-$90s to the $101.04 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include rate-case pressure, California wildfire and affordability issues, high debt, negative free cash flow during the capital cycle, interest rates, LNG project execution, and transaction closing risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for future stock returns and trading timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Sempra has durable infrastructure assets, but the stock requires disciplined funding and regulatory outcomes to justify the current multiple. | Medium |
SRE AI stock forecast
The SRE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $94.59 price, the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.05, and a utility-style earnings multiple range. It is not a promise that the stock will reach any target.
$124 to $134
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 9%, the SI Partners sale closes on expected economics, Oncor earns attractive returns on Texas grid growth, California rate recovery remains constructive, and investors pay near 20x forward earnings.
$106 to $116
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 7%, the dividend remains covered, interest costs are manageable, capital spending is funded without material dilution pressure, and SRE trades near 18x forward earnings.
$80 to $90
More likely if utility multiples compress, regulatory recovery disappoints, debt costs rise, free cash flow stays deeply negative, wildfire or affordability pressure rises, or LNG and SI Partners milestones slip.
SRE AI technical analysis
SRE AI technical analysis is moderately constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The stock was above its 50-day and 200-day averages, but not far from short-term resistance after closing at $94.59 on July 7, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.59 | July 7, 2026 closing price used for this static page, verified on July 8, 2026. |
| Near support | $91.50 to $92.00 | Support aligns with the reported 50-day moving average near $91.95 and 200-day moving average near $91.62. |
| Structural support | $88 to $90 | A deeper pullback into this zone would test whether buyers still defend the utility growth setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $91.95 | StockAnalysis listed this 50-day average in the July 8, 2026 statistics check. |
| 200-day moving average | $91.62 | The stock traded above this longer trend reference at the data cutoff. |
| Near resistance | $95.50 to $101.04 | The high end references the 52-week high reported for April 9, 2026, while the lower end is near the latest intraday high zone. |
| Momentum | RSI 59.48 | Momentum was positive but not extreme, so confirmation matters on any breakout above the mid-$90s. |
| Volume | About 2.54 million shares on July 7 | The latest close had lighter volume than the reported 50-day average near 3.9 million shares, so breakout volume should be monitored. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.57 | The stock is lower beta than the broad market, but utility stocks can still reprice around Treasury yields, regulatory decisions, and capital plans. |
| Invalidation | Close below $88 | A decisive close below structural support would weaken the current technical framework and shift focus back to funding and regulatory risk. |
SRE AI trading strategy
The SRE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a regulated utility infrastructure stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, Treasury yields, regulatory filings, earnings updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for SRE to hold above the $91.50 to $92.00 support band and break above the mid-$90s on volume that exceeds recent averages. Confirmation is stronger if utility-sector yields are stable and no adverse regulatory update appears.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $88 should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If SRE pulls back toward $88 to $90 without a guidance cut or regulatory shock, compare dividend yield, adjusted EPS guidance, capital funding needs, and peer utility multiples before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because capital-intensive utilities can reprice when rates, equity issuance risk, or rate-case outcomes change.
Track 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, Oncor capital plan progress, California utility rate recovery, debt issuance, free cash flow, dividend coverage, SI Partners transaction milestones, and LNG project commitments.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage, delayed proceeds, or multiple expansion rather than authorized returns, customer growth, and funded infrastructure returns.
Investment research summary
Sempra is paid to deliver essential electric and natural gas infrastructure in large U.S. markets and to own contracted energy infrastructure. Customers pay because reliable energy delivery is non-discretionary and grid capacity is becoming more valuable.
The strongest moat comes from regulated service territories, physical networks, scale, operating history, and customer necessity. Oncor adds Texas growth exposure, while Sempra Infrastructure adds project optionality with more execution and partner risk.
The thesis fails if regulators limit recovery, wildfire or affordability costs rise, interest rates stay high, capital spending requires costly financing, LNG projects miss budget or schedule, or the SI Partners sale proceeds arrive later or lower than expected.
Jeffrey W. Martin leads Sempra as chairman, CEO, and president. Management should be judged by portfolio simplification, rate-case discipline, utility safety, funding cost, dividend coverage, and whether the $65 billion capital campaign creates per-share value.
Sempra sits inside grid modernization, electrification, Texas load growth, California reliability investment, and long-duration energy infrastructure demand. These trends are durable, but returns depend on regulation, capital costs, customer bills, and project execution.
At about 18.7x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint and 1.92x book value, SRE already prices in steady execution. Margin of safety improves if the stock retreats toward support while guidance, regulatory recovery, funding access, and transaction milestones stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRE price | $94.59 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $61.83 billion verified as $94.59 x 653.71 million shares, 0.01% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 653.71 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.702 billion, cross-validated against Sempra annual report and StockAnalysis | Sempra 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings attributable to common shares | $1.796 billion, cross-validated against Sempra annual report and StockAnalysis | Sempra 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings attributable to common shares | $1.037 billion versus $906 million in Q1 2025 | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | About $795 million consensus, from $794 million company release and $796 million StockAnalysis | Sempra Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Total debt | $36.43 billion at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.80 to $5.30 | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 50-day average $91.95, 200-day average $91.62, RSI 59.48, beta 0.57 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Strategic transaction | Sempra Infrastructure transaction proceeds of $10 billion imply $22.2 billion equity value and $31.7 billion enterprise value for SI Partners | Sempra strategic transaction release | July 8, 2026 |
| Capital plan | $65 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan, including projected utility and infrastructure investment assumptions | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
This SRE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if rates, regulation, funding access, company execution, market sentiment, or source data change.
