NextEra Energy, Inc. research snapshot
NEE AI stock analysis currently reads NextEra Energy as a high-quality regulated utility and renewables growth franchise whose Q2 2026 adjusted earnings beat estimates, whose 2026 guidance and 8%+ long-term growth outlook remain intact, and which is pursuing a proposed combination with Dominion Energy. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NEE closed at $86.92 on July 31, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $181.30 billion. The analysis is constructive on the franchise but cautious on the near-term chart, because the stock has pulled back below its 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages and technical momentum has turned negative after a run toward the $98.75 area. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$86.92
Market cap
$181.30 billion verified as $86.92 x 2,085,803,189 shares
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality utility and renewables franchise with rich valuation, rising debt, and merger execution risk
Trend status
Corrective after a pullback below the 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages despite strong Q2 results and maintained guidance
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NEE pairs a large regulated Florida utility with one of the largest renewables, storage, and transmission development platforms in North America, so customer need is durable and growth is tied to electrification, population, and clean-power demand. | High |
| Moat | FPL has a strong regulatory, scale, grid, and operating-efficiency moat. Energy Resources has scale and developer capability, but its moat is narrower because project returns depend on competitive bidding, financing costs, and policy support. | High |
| Management | Management delivered a Q2 2026 adjusted EPS beat, kept 2026 guidance and the 8%+ long-term growth outlook intact, added 3.6 GW of backlog, advanced the Dominion combination, and is working to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear plant, but investors should track capital discipline, leverage, and merger execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $7.534 billion and GAAP net income attributable to NEE was $3.144 billion, while H1 2026 revenue was $14.235 billion and H1 GAAP net income attributable to NEE was $5.326 billion; FY2025 revenue was $27.412 billion with net income attributable to NEE of $6.835 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $86.92, NEE traded near 19.5x TTM GAAP EPS, about 21.9x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $3.97, 3.17x book value, and a 2.87% dividend yield, while the audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull areas near $76, $105, and $127. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NEE closed below its 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages, with immediate resistance near $90.80, support near $86.67, a deeper Fibonacci floor near $84.70, and RSI near 42.6 as of the July 31, 2026 technical check. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include interest rates, rising debt, financing needs, merger approval and execution, tax-credit and clean-energy policy changes, hurricane costs, rate-case pressure, large-load timing, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward price ranges and chart timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NEE is a better-than-average utility franchise, but the stock trades below its long-term moving averages and the valuation still leaves less room for adverse rates, merger delays, regulatory friction, or project-return disappointment. | Medium |
NEE AI stock forecast
The NEE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $86.92 close, the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.92 to $4.02 with a midpoint near $3.97, and management guidance for 8%+ adjusted EPS growth through 2032 off a 2025 base of $3.71. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $76, a base area near $105, and a bullish area near $127 before dividends.
$120 to $132
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 10%, FPL earns constructive allowed returns, Energy Resources converts its roughly 35 GW backlog at attractive returns, the Dominion combination closes as planned, financing costs stay manageable, and investors pay a premium utility multiple near 24x earnings.
$98 to $110
More likely if EPS grows near 8%, dividend growth remains covered, renewable development meets planned returns, Florida regulation stays constructive, the merger progresses without major disruption, and the market values NEE near 21x forward earnings.
$72 to $82
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, project returns fall, rate recovery is delayed, tax credits weaken, hurricane or storm costs rise, the Dominion deal is delayed or rejected, or financing needs dilute per-share growth.
NEE AI technical analysis
NEE AI technical analysis turned negative as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. NEE closed at $86.92 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages, while Intellectia showed a Strong Sell aggregate of 17 signals split 6 buy to 11 sell and RSI near 42.6.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $86.92 | The July 31, 2026 close was $86.92, with a daily range of $86.92 to $88.11 and volume of about 13.2 million shares. |
| Near support | $86.67 | Intellectia pivot math puts the immediate support at $86.665, a level NEE must hold to avoid a move toward lower floors. |
| Structural support | $84.70 | The Fibonacci floor sits near $84.698, the first area where buyers could defend the pullback. |
| 20-day moving average | About $88.50 | NEE traded below its 20-day simple moving average near $88.50 during the July 31, 2026 technical check. |
| 60-day moving average | About $88.38 | The price also sat below its 60-day average, keeping the intermediate trend under pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | About $87.70 | NEE closed below its 200-day average near $87.70, a longer-term signal that turned negative, with the 250-day average near $85.05 the next support reference. |
| Near resistance | $90.80 | Immediate resistance is near $90.795, with higher resistance at about $92.96 to $94.93 should the stock reclaim the averages. |
| 52-week range | $69.24 to $98.75 | NEE is down roughly 12% from its 52-week high near $98.75, so overhead supply and rate sensitivity matter more than at prior lows. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42.6 with a mixed oscillator set | RSI near 42.6 is neutral, while CCI near -119 suggests short-term weakness and MACD near 0.10 is slightly positive, leaving momentum without a clean edge. |
| Volume | Volume should confirm any reclaim of $90.80 | A move back above resistance carries more weight if it occurs on volume above recent averages and without negative rate, merger, or policy news. |
| Volatility | Moderate utility volatility with rate and policy sensitivity | NEE can still move sharply around Treasury-yield changes, merger-approval news, hurricane updates, rate-case news, and renewable project economics. |
| Invalidation | Close below $84.70 | A decisive close below structural support near $84.70 would weaken the current framework, with the pivot area near $82.54 as the next risk marker. |
NEE AI trading strategy
The NEE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated utility and renewables leader that is now trading below its major moving averages. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, Treasury yields, merger-approval news, rate-case updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for NEE to reclaim and hold the $88.40 to $90.80 zone, ideally by reclaiming the 200-day moving average near $87.70 on rising volume, before treating the short-term downtrend as finished. Confirmation should include stable Treasury yields and constructive rate-case, backlog, or merger news.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $84.70 should reduce confidence in the trend setup, with the pivot near $82.54 as the next risk marker.
If NEE tests the $84.70 to $86.67 support band without a guidance cut or adverse merger or policy news, compare dividend yield, adjusted EPS guidance, allowed-return outlook, backlog quality, and utility-sector multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because utilities can reprice sharply when interest rates, equity issuance, tax-credit rules, or regulatory rulings change.
Track FPL rate outcomes, customer and large-load growth, Energy Resources backlog conversion and origination, adjusted EPS guidance, debt issuance and cost, cash flow, dividend coverage, Duane Arnold restart progress, and Dominion merger approval milestones.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage, one-time items, or multiple expansion rather than authorized returns, customer growth, backlog execution, and funded project returns.
Investment research summary
NextEra Energy is paid to deliver reliable electricity in Florida and to develop clean-power, storage, transmission, and energy infrastructure for utilities, corporations, and wholesale customers. Customers pay because electricity access is essential and power demand keeps rising.
FPL has a regulatory and physical-asset moat through service territory, scale, grid assets, operating efficiency, and customer necessity. Energy Resources has scale and developer experience, but its moat is narrower because project economics face competitive bidding, financing costs, and policy risk.
The thesis fails if rates stay high, regulators limit recovery, renewable returns disappoint, tax credits change, storm costs rise, the Dominion combination is delayed or rejected, equity or debt funding becomes punitive, or the market stops paying a premium for utility growth.
Management should be judged by capital allocation, rate-case discipline, FPL reliability and affordability, Energy Resources origination and backlog conversion, debt control, dividend coverage, Duane Arnold restart execution, merger integration, and whether growth improves per-share value rather than only asset size.
NEE sits inside electrification, grid investment, data-center power demand, renewable penetration, battery storage, transmission expansion, and decarbonization. These are long-duration trends, but economics depend on policy, interconnection, capital costs, merger approvals, and customer bill tolerance.
At about 21.9x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint and 3.17x book value, NEE requires steady execution and has growth priced in. Margin of safety improves if the stock holds the $84.70 to $86.67 zone while EPS guidance, rate recovery, project returns, and financing costs remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEE price | $86.92 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis NEE quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $181.30 billion verified as $86.92 x 2,085,803,189 shares, matching the reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2,085,803,189 common shares as of June 30, 2026 | NextEra Energy Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating revenue | $27.412 billion, cross-validated against StockAnalysis and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 and H1 2026 revenue and GAAP net income | Q2 2026 revenue of $7.534 billion and GAAP net income attributable to NEE of $3.144 billion; H1 2026 revenue of $14.235 billion and H1 GAAP net income attributable to NEE of $5.326 billion | NextEra Energy Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted earnings | $2.407 billion, or $1.15 per share, versus $2.164 billion, or $1.05 per share in the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 9.5% | NextEra Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and long-term growth | 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92 to $4.02, targeting the high end, and 8%+ adjusted EPS CAGR through 2032 off a 2025 base of $3.71 | NextEra Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Backlog and operating highlights | Energy Resources added 3.6 GW of backlog in Q2 to reach about 35.1 GW; FPL added more than 90,000 customers and has about 21 GW of large-load interest, with advanced discussions on 12 GW | NextEra Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly common dividend of $0.6232 per share declared July 30, 2026, implying roughly $2.49 per share per year and a yield near 2.87% | NextEra Energy board dividend news release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.866 billion cash and cash equivalents, and about $110.197 billion total debt at June 30, 2026, including $104.203 billion of long-term debt including current portion, $1.736 billion commercial paper, and $4.258 billion other short-term debt | NextEra Energy Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 19.53x TTM GAAP PE, 3.17x PB, 50.53x P/FCF, 1.98% FCF yield, and 2.87% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $75.9, base $105.0, bull $126.8 using $3.97 EPS, 4% to 10% growth, and 17x to 24x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Price below 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages, with resistance near $90.80, support near $86.67, a Fibonacci floor near $84.70, and RSI near 42.6 | Intellectia NEE technical page | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 21 analysts rate NEE a Buy with an average 12-month price target of $99.00 | StockAnalysis NEE forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
This NEE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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