SM Energy Company research snapshot
SM AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads SM Energy Company as a transformed, post-merger oil and gas producer that is executing ahead of plan while the commodity cycle works in its favor. The company closed its merger with Civitas Resources on January 30, 2026, more than doubling its size across four basins: the Permian Midland Basin, the South Texas Eagle Ford, the DJ Basin, and the Uinta Basin. The stock closed at $32.52 on July 31, 2026, with a pre-market print of $31.50 on August 3, 2026, and a market capitalization near $7.80 billion, computed as $32.52 times 239.75 million shares and cross-validated with SEC EDGAR XBRL, which lists 239,696,577 shares as of March 31, 2026. Q1 2026 results, reported May 7, 2026, beat expectations with production of 371,000 BOE per day above guidance, capital of $672 million below guidance, adjusted EBITDAX of $970 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.55. Management has actioned about $300 million of merger synergies, raised the year-end target to $375 million at a present value near $1.8 billion, cut debt by about $700 million since January, and closed a $900 million South Texas divestiture on April 30, 2026, putting leverage on a path to the low 1x area and enabling buybacks that started in Q2. Full-year 2026 production guidance was raised to 420,000 BOE per day with oil at 225,000 barrels per day, while capex was held at $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion. The stock is up about 68% year to date, trades above all of its major moving averages, and sits at a forward PE near 4.65 and an EV/EBITDA near 8.86, though GAAP results remain distorted by one-time merger costs and a non-cash hedge book mark-to-market. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 5, 2026. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$32.52 at the July 31, 2026 close; $31.50 pre-market on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$7.80 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Post-merger scaled E&P with falling leverage and an oil price tailwind
Trend status
Bullish above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a mid-June pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | After the January 30, 2026 Civitas Resources merger, SM Energy is a diversified producer across four premier basins: the Permian Midland Basin, the South Texas Eagle Ford, the DJ Basin, and the Uinta Basin. Q1 2026 production was 371,000 BOE per day with oil at 190,000 barrels per day, adjusted EBITDAX was $970 million, and the Uinta Basin ran the highest cash margin in the portfolio near $40 per barrel. | Medium-high |
| Moat | E&P businesses have inherently narrow moats. SM advantages are acreage position, an inventory that management pegged at more than 8 years at $60 WTI, technical and completion efficiency, and basin diversity, but crude oil is a global commodity and no producer holds durable pricing power. | Low |
| Management | President and CEO Beth McDonald, CFO Wade Pursell, and COO Blake McKenna are executing the post-merger plan. Q1 2026 delivered production above guidance on capital below guidance, about $300 million of synergies actioned with the year-end target raised to $375 million, about $700 million of debt reduction, a $900 million South Texas divestiture closed April 30, buybacks starting in Q2, and S&P and Fitch upgrades with a Moody's positive outlook. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDAX was $970 million and adjusted EPS was $1.55, adjusted free cash flow was $20 million after about $180 million of one-time integration costs, full-year production guidance was raised to 420,000 BOE per day and oil to 225,000 barrels per day, capex was held at $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion, and debt was cut by about $700 million with leverage moving into the low 1x area. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $32.52, SM trades at about 4.65x forward PE, 8.86x EV/EBITDA, 14.05x trailing free cash flow, and 1.13x book value. Trailing GAAP PE of 33.76 is distorted by one-time merger costs and hedge mark-to-market. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $38.40 across 15 analysts. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SM closed at $32.52 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $31.40, $30.75, $30.17, $29.92, and $25.00, with 14-day RSI near 54 to 59 and a positive directional bias after a mid-June pullback from the $35.88 high. The stock is up about 68% year to date. | Medium |
| Risk level | The dominant risk is crude oil price, since cash flow and buybacks depend on WTI staying in a supportive range. Other risks are about $8 billion of debt, GAAP earnings that swing with hedge mark-to-market and one-time costs, merger integration execution, a high payout ratio on GAAP earnings, a July 31, 2026 data breach notice, and an elevated EV multiple on forward cash flow. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Medium for forward return estimates because oil prices, differentials, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the outcome depends heavily on the commodity cycle. | Medium |
SM AI stock forecast
The SM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $32.52 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $6.89, with FY2027 consensus near $7.34. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $25, a base area near $38, and a bullish area near $49 over a roughly 12 to 24 month horizon, using adjusted EPS trajectories and exit multiples between 3.5x and 6.5x forward earnings. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$44 to $55
More likely if WTI stays elevated above $75 after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, SM delivers the raised 2026 plan, synergies reach the $375 million target, buybacks accelerate, leverage falls below 1x, and the market re-rates the stock toward the Raymond James target of $48 and the Stephens target of $52.
$34 to $42
More likely if WTI holds a $65 to $75 range, SM executes the raised production guidance at the same capex, adjusted EPS tracks toward the $6.89 consensus, and the stock holds a 4.5x to 5.5x forward multiple around the $38.40 consensus target.
$22 to $28
More likely if WTI falls below $60, free cash flow and buybacks fade, the hedge book swings against GAAP results, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report disappoints, integration costs run higher than planned, or the market compresses the forward multiple toward the low $30 analyst target and below.
SM AI technical analysis
SM AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $32.52 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 54 to 59 and a positive directional bias. After peaking at the 52-week high of $35.88 in mid-June, the stock pulled back toward the $27 to $28 area and has since recovered, so the $33 to $36 zone is the overhead supply that matters next.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $32.52 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 239.75 million shares, cross-checked with SEC EDGAR XBRL at 239,696,577 shares as of March 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $30.50 to $31.50 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $31.40 and the 20-day near $30.75 on August 3, 2026, forming the first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $28 to $29 | The mid-June to early July pullback found a floor near the $27 to $28 area before the recovery, and round numbers in the $28 to $29 zone sit between the 50-day average and the recent low. |
| Major support | $25.00 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $25.00 and StockAnalysis.com near $24.95, the trend line that defines the long-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $33 to $35.88 | The immediate upside is capped by the 52-week high of $35.88, with the $33 to $35 zone acting as overhead supply from the June peak. |
| 20-day moving average | $30.75 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $30.75 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $30.17 | Barchart reported the 50-day near $30.17 and StockAnalysis.com near $30.23, a key level to hold on any pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | $25.00 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $25.00, well below price and confirming the long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54 to 59, ADX near 19 | 14-day RSI was near 54.08 on Barchart and 59.04 on StockAnalysis.com, and 14-day ADX near 18.67 with positive directional index above negative directional index, so momentum is bullish but not overbought. |
| Volume | About 3.3 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 3.26 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 3.39 million, useful for checking the quality of the breakout toward $35.88. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 57% and 9-day near 67%, so position sizing should account for large swings around the August 5, 2026 Q2 report and oil price news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $30 | A decisive close below the 20-day and 50-day moving average cluster near $30 would weaken the short-term setup, and a close below the 200-day near $25 would turn the trend bearish. |
SM AI trading strategy
The SM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the post-merger E&P. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, oil price action, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for SM to build volume on a move back toward the $35.88 high, with WTI holding key support and the stock above the rising 20-day moving average near $30.75.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $30.17 or a sharp drop in WTI should trigger a stop and review, because E&P momentum depends on the commodity.
If SM pulls back toward the $28 to $30 support cluster without new fundamental damage, compare the price reaction with the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, oil price action, buyback pace, and synergy news before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule, because an oil price shock or a data breach headline can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track WTI and realized oil differentials, production versus the raised 420,000 BOE per day guidance, capex discipline at $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion, synergy capture toward the $375 million target, debt reduction toward low 1x leverage, and buyback execution.
Reduce confidence if adjusted EPS growth depends mainly on one-time adjustments or if leverage stops improving despite higher oil prices.
Investment research summary
SM Energy finds, develops, and produces crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas across four basins after the January 30, 2026 Civitas Resources merger: the Permian Midland Basin, the South Texas Eagle Ford, the DJ Basin, and the Uinta Basin. Customers are refiners, midstream aggregators, and commodity traders who pay global market prices, so returns come from well inventory quality and operating cost discipline rather than pricing power.
E&P moats are narrow. SM advantages are acreage position, a multi-year inventory that management pegged at more than 8 years at $60 WTI, technical and completion efficiency, and basin diversity, but crude oil is a global commodity where pricing power resides with the market rather than the producer.
The thesis fails if oil enters a sustained contraction that makes the inventory uneconomic, integration costs or hedge losses overwhelm the adjusted results, debt reduction stalls before leverage reaches the low 1x target, the July 31, 2026 data breach or any litigation creates real liabilities, or the market compresses the forward multiple toward the low $30 analyst target.
President and CEO Beth McDonald, CFO Wade Pursell, and COO Blake McKenna are executing the post-merger plan. Q1 2026 delivered production above guidance on capital below guidance, roughly $300 million of synergies actioned with the year-end target raised to $375 million, about $700 million of debt reduction, a $900 million South Texas divestiture that closed April 30, and buybacks starting in Q2, with S&P and Fitch upgrades and a Moody's positive outlook.
SM is a pure crude-oil-sensitive shale producer at a time when OPEC+ supply decisions, the Strait of Hormuz disruption, US demand, and global energy transition policy set the price. Medium-term cash flow depends on oil staying in the $60 to $80 range, and 2027 is when the full merged platform, full synergies, and lower leverage should show their earnings power.
At $32.52, SM trades at about 4.65x forward PE and 8.86x EV/EBITDA on the merged footprint. The low forward multiple looks cheap only if consensus adjusted EPS near $6.89 holds, which assumes elevated oil and full synergy capture, so the margin of safety is tied to the oil price more than to the multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SM price | $32.52 at the July 31, 2026 close, up $0.89 or 2.81% on the day, with a $31.50 pre-market print on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.80 billion, computed as $32.52 x 239.75 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $15.91 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 239,696,577 as of March 31, 2026 per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, matching the StockAnalysis.com share count of 239.75 million | SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Civitas Resources merger | The merger closed January 30, 2026, more than doubling the company size and adding the DJ Basin and Uinta Basin to the Permian and South Texas footprint | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call and Q4 2025 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted EBITDAX of $970 million, adjusted net income of $309 million or $1.55 per diluted share, and adjusted free cash flow of $20 million after about $180 million of one-time integration and transaction cash costs | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 production and capital | Production of 371,000 BOE per day with oil at 190,000 barrels per day, above the top end of guidance, and capital of $672 million, below guidance | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Synergy progress | About $300 million of merger synergies actioned, with the year-end 2026 target raised to $375 million, nearly 2x the original target, at a present value of about $1.8 billion | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| South Texas divestiture | The South Texas divestiture closed April 30, 2026, with approximately $900 million in net proceeds directed entirely to debt reduction | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Balance sheet progress | Absolute debt reduced by approximately $700 million since the merger closed in January, with pro forma leverage moving into the low 1x area ahead of the original year-end target; S&P and Fitch upgraded the company and Moody's moved to a positive outlook | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| 2026 raised guidance | Full-year production midpoint raised from 410 to 420,000 BOE per day and oil from 221 to 225,000 barrels per day, with capex maintained at $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion and a second-half production run rate near 430,000 BOE per day and 238,000 barrels of oil per day | SM Energy Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.62 billion, including about two months of Civitas in Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.03 billion, up 17.60% from $2.57 billion, before the Civitas merger consolidation | StockAnalysis.com quote and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM GAAP) | $131 million, distorted by one-time merger costs and a non-cash hedge book mark-to-market as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $449 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | About $7.98 billion as of March 31, 2026, with about $1.24 billion current and $6.74 billion long-term; the StockAnalysis.com statistics page reports about $8.56 billion under S&P Global classification | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt | About $7.53 billion as of March 31, 2026, computed as about $7.98 billion total debt less $449 million cash; the statistics page reports net debt of about $8.11 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholders equity | $6.868 billion as of March 31, 2026, with book value per share of $28.65 on the current share count | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total assets | $19.14 billion as of March 31, 2026, reflecting the merged footprint | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Trailing PE 33.76, forward PE 4.65, PS 2.16, PB 1.13, P/FCF 14.05, EV/EBITDA 8.86, EV/FCF 28.66, FCF yield 7.12% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $38.40 across 15 analysts, low $32, median $37, and high $52 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell out of 15 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 21, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Raymond James lowered its target to $48 from $55 on July 21, Roth MKM raised to $34 from $32 on July 21, Susquehanna raised to $32 from $31 on July 21, Siebert Williams held $41, RBC Capital held $40 on July 20, and UBS initiated coverage with a Buy and a $36 target | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks analyst feed | July 21, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $7.17 billion with adjusted EPS of $6.89 (estimate range $6.09 to $7.65), FY2027 revenue of $7.45 billion with adjusted EPS of $7.34 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share, $0.88 annualized, a 2.71% yield, raised from $0.20 per quarter in 2025, with the last ex-dividend date June 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and SM Energy dividend release | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 15.18 million shares short, 6.33% of shares outstanding, about 3.56 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $17.45 to $35.88, up 17.36% over the trailing 52 weeks and about 68% year to date, beta 0.73 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $31.40, 20-day SMA near $30.75, 50-day SMA near $30.17, 100-day SMA near $29.92, 200-day SMA near $25.00, 14-day RSI near 54.08, 14-day ADX near 18.67, 14-day historical volatility near 57.26% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Data breach notice | On July 31, 2026, Murphy Law Firm announced it is investigating legal claims related to a reported SM Energy data breach that may have exposed personal information; the financial materiality is not yet clear | GlobeNewswire via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 31, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for Wednesday, August 5, 2026 after market close, with a conference call on Thursday, August 6, 2026 | SM Energy press release | July 8, 2026 |
This SM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after the August 5, 2026 earnings report, new oil price moves, legal or cybersecurity developments, or macro conditions.
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