Matador Resources Company research snapshot
MTDR AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Matador Resources as a Delaware Basin E&P in a catalyst-heavy stretch. The stock traded at $48.79 intraday on August 3, down 2.20% from the July 31 close of $49.89, with a market capitalization near $6.06 billion computed as $48.79 times 124.18 million shares outstanding and verified against the StockAnalysis.com reported figure. On August 3, San Mateo, the 51%-owned midstream joint venture with Five Point Infrastructure, closed the $752 million acquisition of Cardinal Midstream operating subsidiaries, adding a natural gas processing plant in Loving County, Texas with about 320 million cubic feet per day of designed inlet capacity plus roughly 145 miles of gathering pipelines, which lifts San Mateo past one billion cubic feet per day of processing capacity and more than 800 miles of gathering lines. The July 23 press release added two more catalysts: the $1.275 billion cash acquisition of Paloma Permian LLC from EnCap Investments, adding 16,235 net undeveloped acres in Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico with estimated third quarter production near 11,100 BOE per day at 57% oil, and a separate Ridge Runner Resources acquisition of primarily undeveloped Woodford acreage that brings the combined Woodford position to about 50,000 contiguous net acres. The first Rae Creek Woodford exploratory well in Southeast Lea County tested at over 2,200 BOE per day at 72% oil on June 29, 2026. The MTDR AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a precise price prediction, because TTM EPS of $3.89 is depressed by a weak Q1 2026 net loss, while consensus FY2026 EPS near $6.92 and FY2027 EPS near $8.78 imply a strong expected recovery that depends on oil and gas prices, production growth, Waha gas price exposure, midstream contributions, and the closing of the two pending acquisitions.
Current price
$48.79 at the August 3, 2026 intraday quote as of 9:43 AM EDT, down 2.20% from the July 31, 2026 close of $49.89
Market cap
$6.06 billion verified market cap
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Delaware Basin E&P with midstream scale-up and acquisition catalysts, priced for execution
Trend status
Neutral to soft, trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Matador sells crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs from Delaware Basin assets and operates a growing midstream business through San Mateo that provides gathering, processing, and disposal fee income. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is based on Delaware Basin acreage quality, founder-led operating know-how, and midstream infrastructure that just became the largest private natural gas processor in the northern Delaware Basin, not on durable pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Joseph Foran has led the company since 2003, owns significant stock, and bought shares in May 2026. The proof point is whether the Cardinal closing and the Paloma and Ridge Runner deals create lasting shareholder value, while management targets returning leverage near 1.0x within 12 to 18 months of the closings. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $3.59 billion and TTM net income is $483.26 million with TTM EPS of $3.89, after FY2025 revenue of $3.66 billion and net income of $759.22 million. Q1 2026 posted a $35.9 million net loss attributable to shareholders driven by unrealized derivative losses and collapsed Waha gas prices, offset by adjusted net income of $189.5 million and adjusted EPS of $1.53. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $48.79, MTDR screens near 12.43x TTM PE, 1.72x sales, 1.11x book, and a forward PE near 6.18x per StockAnalysis, with a 3.11% indicated dividend yield, against consensus FY2026 EPS of $6.92 and FY2027 EPS of $8.78. | High |
| Technical trend | MTDR is trading below both the 50-day moving average near $52.09 and the 200-day moving average near $50.01, with RSI near 41.58, so the trend is neutral to soft ahead of the August 5 earnings report. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower oil and gas prices, continued Waha gas price weakness, production disappointment, acquisition financing and integration delays for Paloma and Ridge Runner, higher debt from the Cardinal, Paloma, and Ridge Runner transactions, service-cost inflation, and reserve-quality uncertainty. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the source base is recent and cross-validated. Return confidence is lower because commodity prices, Waha gas realizations, earnings on August 5, and the pending acquisitions dominate near-term results. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MTDR is a credible Delaware Basin operator with founder-led management, a scale-up midstream business, and two announced acquisition catalysts, but the stock is trading below its key moving averages with a forward path that depends on earnings, commodity prices, and execution. | Medium-low |
MTDR AI stock forecast
The MTDR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because TTM EPS of $3.89 is depressed by the weak Q1 2026 while consensus looks to FY2026 EPS of $6.92 and FY2027 EPS of $8.78. Using the $48.79 price reference and a one-year three-scenario model, the mechanical range points to roughly $40 in a bear case, $62 in a base case, and $87 in a bullish case before dividends. The more useful question is whether Matador can confirm the recovery at the August 5 earnings report, close the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions in Q4 2026, expand midstream fee income through San Mateo, and generate the roughly $1.0 billion of adjusted free cash flow guided for 2026 while keeping leverage near 1.0x.
$75 to $95 before dividends
More likely if Q2 2026 results confirm the recovery, WTI stays supported, the Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions close on time and accretive, San Mateo midstream EBITDA grows after the Cardinal closing, leverage falls toward 1.0x, and the market moves MTDR toward the analyst high target near $93.
$55 to $68 before dividends
More likely if FY2026 EPS lands near the $6.92 consensus, FY2027 EPS compounds toward $8.78, the market values MTDR near 8x to 9x forward earnings, midstream revenue grows steadily, and the pending acquisitions close without major cost overruns.
$38 to $48 before dividends
More likely if oil prices weaken, Waha gas pricing stays depressed, Q2 2026 earnings disappoint, the Paloma or Ridge Runner acquisitions slip or become dilutive, debt from the financing mix pressures cash flow, or service-cost inflation compresses margins.
MTDR AI technical analysis
MTDR AI technical analysis is neutral to soft as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com showed an August 3 intraday price of $48.79, down 2.20% from the July 31 close of $49.89, with the stock below the 50-day moving average near $52.09 and the 200-day moving average near $50.01. RSI near 41.58 and elevated short interest near 10.91% of shares outstanding set up the August 5 earnings report as the main catalyst, with support near $44 to $46 and the $37 to $38 zone ahead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.79 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 9:43 AM EDT snapshot, down 2.20% from the $49.89 July 31 close. |
| Immediate support | $44 to $46 | This zone represents the prior reaction area and the lower end of the recent consolidation range. |
| Deeper support | $37 to $38 | This brackets the 52-week low of $37.14 and would be tested if commodity prices or the August 5 earnings disappoint. |
| Near resistance | $50 to $52 | The 200-day moving average near $50.01 and the 50-day moving average near $52.09 form the first hurdle for bulls. |
| Upper resistance | $60 to $67 | This range sits below the 52-week high near $66.84 and the average analyst target near $69.32. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $52.09, 200-day near $50.01 | MTDR is below both key averages, indicating a weak near-term trend that needs an earnings catalyst to turn. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41.58 | Momentum is soft but not oversold, consistent with a wait-and-see posture ahead of earnings. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.82 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around the August 5 earnings release and the August 6 call. |
| Volatility | Watch Q2 2026 earnings and acquisition updates | The earnings report, the call, and Paloma and Ridge Runner closing updates are the likely volatility catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44, then below $37 | A sustained break below $44 weakens the setup further, and a break below the 52-week low near $37.14 resets the range lower. |
MTDR AI trading strategy
The MTDR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with WTI and Henry Hub prices, production data, capex plans, San Mateo midstream contributions, adjusted free cash flow, dividends, buybacks, and the pending Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions.
Watch for MTDR to reclaim and hold above the $50 to $52 zone, backed by a positive August 5 earnings report, stronger oil prices, and credible commentary on production, midstream EBITDA, and the acquisition timeline.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $44 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers guidance or if the pending acquisitions face financing or integration issues.
If MTDR retests the $44 to $46 area or the $37 to $38 zone without balance-sheet stress or reserve-quality problems, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power, consensus EPS near $6.92 for FY2026, and San Mateo midstream fee income.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if commodity prices are trending lower, Waha gas pricing stays depressed, or the August 5 earnings disappoint.
Track WTI crude, Henry Hub and Waha gas, total production, oil mix, drilling costs, well productivity, San Mateo volumes, Cardinal integration, Paloma and Ridge Runner closing progress, capex, adjusted free cash flow, net debt, leverage ratio, dividend coverage, and buyback activity.
Position sizing should reflect that MTDR is a mid-cap E&P with cyclical cash flows, elevated short interest, and several pending transaction catalysts, not a stable grower or a fixed-income substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Matador because the economy needs oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Matador creates value by drilling in the Delaware Basin and by expanding fee-based midstream revenue through San Mateo, which now processes over one billion cubic feet per day after the Cardinal closing.
Matador has a real but narrow moat from Delaware Basin acreage, founder-led operating experience, and midstream infrastructure. The weak point is that end-market prices are set by global commodity markets beyond the company control, and Waha gas pricing pressure shows that vulnerability.
The thesis fails if oil or gas prices fall sharply, the Cardinal acquisition integration disappoints, the Paloma or Ridge Runner deals slip or become dilutive, production growth stalls, service costs inflate, Waha gas prices stay depressed, adjusted free cash flow misses the roughly $1.0 billion guide, or debt from the financing mix strains the balance sheet.
Founder Joseph Foran has led Matador since 2003, owns significant stock, and bought shares in May 2026. The Cardinal closing, the two EnCap-sourced acquisitions, the Woodford acreage build, and the plan to return leverage near 1.0x within 12 to 18 months of closing show a disciplined capital allocation agenda.
Oil and gas remain essential for energy security, transport fuels, petrochemicals, and power generation. The offset is that U.S. shale faces depletion rates, Waha gas pricing dislocations, cost inflation, regulatory pressure, and long-term energy transition risk.
At $48.79, MTDR trades below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near 12.4x TTM PE, but near 7x forward earnings based on consensus FY2026 EPS of $6.92. The current price embeds an expectation of recovery that still needs confirmation from the August 5 report and the pending acquisitions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR price reference | $48.79 intraday on August 3, 2026 at 9:43 AM EDT, down 2.20% from the July 31, 2026 close of $49.89 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $6.06 billion reported and $6.06 billion calculated from $48.79 x 124.18 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 124.18 million shares outstanding with a float of 116.04 million, insider ownership of 5.02%, and institutional ownership of 95.37% | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | $3.59 billion TTM revenue, $483.26 million TTM net income, and $3.89 TTM EPS, with FY2025 revenue of $3.66 billion and net income of $759.22 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Total revenues of $671.6 million, a $35.9 million net loss attributable to shareholders, adjusted net income of $189.5 million, adjusted EPS of $1.53, Adjusted EBITDA of $577.2 million, and production of 207,594 BOE per day up 5% year over year | Matador Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 6, 2026 |
| Cardinal Midstream closing | San Mateo, the 51%-owned midstream JV with Five Point Infrastructure, completed the $752 million acquisition of Cardinal Midstream operating subsidiaries on August 3, 2026, adding a natural gas processing plant in Loving County, Texas with about 320 million cubic feet per day of designed inlet capacity and roughly 145 miles of gathering pipelines, lifting San Mateo past one billion cubic feet per day of processing capacity | Business Wire Cardinal closing press release via New Castle News | August 3, 2026 |
| Paloma Permian acquisition | $1.275 billion cash for Paloma Permian LLC from EnCap Investments, adding 16,235 net undeveloped acres in Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico, estimated Q3 2026 production near 11,100 BOE per day at 57% oil, $816 million of PV-10, 55 million BOE of proved reserves, and over 156 net locations, with closing expected in Q4 2026 | Matador July 23, 2026 press release and July 24, 2026 Form 8-K | July 24, 2026 |
| Ridge Runner and Woodford acreage | The Ridge Runner Resources acquisition of primarily undeveloped Woodford acreage, combined with prior acreage adds, creates about 50,000 contiguous net acres in the Woodford play and over 150 net operated Woodford locations at about $1.3 million per net location, with closing expected in Q4 2026 | Matador July 23, 2026 press release and July 24, 2026 Form 8-K | July 24, 2026 |
| Rae Creek Woodford well | The first Rae Creek exploratory well in the Woodford formation in Southeast Lea County, New Mexico tested at over 2,200 BOE per day at 72% oil during its 24-hour test on June 29, 2026 | Matador July 23, 2026 press release | July 23, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.43x TTM PE, 6.18x forward PE, 1.72x price to sales, 1.11x price to book, 0.71 PEG ratio, and a 3.11% indicated dividend yield with a 38.61% payout ratio | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash near $30 million with about $3.5 billion of total debt and a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.60, after the RBL facility was fully repaid in May 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy consensus from 19 analysts with an average price target of $69.32, a low target of $54, and a high target of $93, with FY2026 consensus EPS of $6.92 and FY2027 consensus EPS of $8.78 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $52.09, 200-day moving average near $50.01, RSI near 41.58, 20-day average volume near 1.82 million shares, beta of 0.74, and 52-week range of $37.14 to $66.84 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and TradingView | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 13.55 million shares short, about 10.91% of shares outstanding, with a 7.30 day short ratio | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly cash dividend of $0.375 per share declared July 22, 2026, equal to $1.50 per year, with an ex-dividend date of August 10, 2026 | Business Wire dividend press release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This MTDR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, scenario assumptions, and tool-verified calculations as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, and they can be wrong if commodity prices, Q2 2026 results, production, the pending Paloma and Ridge Runner acquisitions, midstream execution, capital allocation, regulation, or market sentiment changes.
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