Matador Resources Company research snapshot
MTDR AI stock analysis currently reads Matador Resources as a Delaware Basin-focused E&P with founder management, a growing midstream segment through San Mateo, shareholder return via dividends and buybacks, and exposure to oil and natural gas prices. The July 12, 2026 setup is not a deterministic buy signal because earnings, free cash flow, and sentiment depend on WTI and Henry Hub prices, production growth, midstream expansion from the Cardinal Midstream acquisition, and capital discipline. The MTDR AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a precise price prediction, and treats the San Mateo midstream ramp, production guidance, commodity prices, and balance-sheet leverage as the main variables.
Current price
$49.68
Market cap
$6.17 billion verified market cap
AI score
59 / 100
Rating
Delaware Basin pure-play E&P with founder-led management, midstream optionality, and commodity-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Neutral near-term, below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Matador sells crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs from Delaware Basin assets with a growing midstream business through the San Mateo joint venture that provides fee-based revenue stability. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is based on Delaware Basin acreage quality, founder-led operating know-how, and midstream infrastructure ownership, not durable pricing power or brand. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Joseph Foran has led the company since 2003, demonstrating capital allocation discipline and long-term thinking. The management proof point is whether the San Mateo midstream expansion and Cardinal deal create lasting shareholder value. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $3.59 billion and net income is $483 million. The balance sheet carries $30 million cash against a debt-equity ratio near 60%, and free cash flow has been negative in recent quarters due to capex for growth. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $49.68, MTDR screens near 12.80x TTM PE, 1.69x sales, 1.09x book, and a forward P/E of 6.77x with a 2.92% indicated dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | MTDR is below the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day average, placing it in a neutral zone without clear trend confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower oil and gas prices, production disappointment, midstream integration delays, balance-sheet leverage, service-cost inflation, and reserve-quality uncertainty. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the source base is adequate and recent. Return confidence is lower because commodity prices and capex decisions dominate near-term results. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MTDR is a credible Delaware Basin operator with founder-led management and a midstream growth angle, but the current price offers an asymmetric risk profile that depends on execution and commodity support. | Medium-low |
MTDR AI stock forecast
The MTDR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because TTM EPS reflects a mix of strong FY2025 and a weak Q1 2026. Using the $49.68 price reference, TTM EPS of $3.88, and the three-scenario model, the mechanical range points to about $14 in a bear case, $36 in a base case, and $59 in a bullish case before dividends. The most useful forecast question is whether Matador can sustain production growth, expand midstream margins through San Mateo and the Cardinal acquisition, and generate positive free cash flow while maintaining the dividend.
$55 to $65 before dividends
More likely if WTI stays above $70, MTDR delivers production growth, the San Mateo Cardinal acquisition closes on time and accretive, free cash flow turns positive, and the market assigns a double-digit earnings multiple.
$33 to $40 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds modestly, the market values MTDR near 8x forward-normalized earnings, midstream revenue grows steadily, and capital spending stays within guided ranges.
$12 to $18 before dividends
More likely if WTI falls below $55, production misses guidance, the Cardinal acquisition underperforms, debt service pressures cash flow, or service costs compress margins.
MTDR AI technical analysis
MTDR AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed a July 10 close of $49.68, with the stock between key moving averages. RSI near 45 and average volume near 1.75 million shares suggest a stock in consolidation rather than breakout or breakdown.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $49.68 | Yahoo Finance and TradingView both showed the July 10, 2026 close in the $49 to $51 range. |
| Immediate support | $44 to $46 | This zone represents prior reaction area and the lower end of the recent consolidation range. |
| Deeper support | $37 to $38 | This brackets the 52-week low of $37.14 and would be tested if commodity prices or earnings disappoint. |
| Near resistance | $52 to $54 | The 50-day moving average likely sits near this zone, representing the first hurdle for bulls. |
| Upper resistance | $62 to $67 | This range overlaps the 52-week high near $66.84 and the average analyst target near $72. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $52-54, 200-day near $44-46 | MTDR is sandwiched between the two key averages, indicating a trend decision point. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45 | Momentum is neutral, neither oversold nor overbought, consistent with a wait-and-see posture. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.75 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around earnings (Jul 28 est.) and Cardinal acquisition closing updates. |
| Volatility | Watch WTI, natural gas, and Q2 2026 earnings | The next earnings report, production guidance, and Cardinal midstream update are likely volatility catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44, then below $37 | A sustained break below the 200-day zone weakens the technical setup. A break below the 52-week low resets the range lower. |
MTDR AI trading strategy
The MTDR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with WTI and Henry Hub prices, production data, capex plans, midstream contributions, free cash flow, dividends, buybacks, and balance-sheet leverage.
Watch for MTDR to reclaim and hold above $52 to $54 with stronger oil prices, positive free cash flow, and credible production and midstream growth commentary.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $44 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers guidance or capex overruns emerge.
If MTDR retests the $37 to $38 area without balance-sheet stress or reserve-quality problems, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power and midstream fee income.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if commodity prices are trending lower or if the Cardinal acquisition faces regulatory or integration hurdles.
Track WTI crude, Henry Hub gas, total production, oil mix, drilling costs, well productivity, San Mateo volumes, Cardinal deal progress, capex, free cash flow, net debt, dividend coverage, and buyback activity.
Position sizing should reflect that MTDR is a mid-cap E&P with cyclical cash flows, not a stable grower or a fixed-income substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Matador because the economy needs oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Matador creates value by drilling in the Delaware Basin and expanding midstream fee-based revenue through the San Mateo joint venture.
Matador has a real but narrow moat from Delaware Basin acreage, founder-led operating experience, and midstream infrastructure. The weak point is that end-market prices are set by global commodity markets beyond the company control.
The thesis fails if oil or gas prices fall sharply, the Cardinal midstream acquisition disappoints, production growth stalls, service costs inflate, free cash flow stays negative, or the balance sheet becomes strained.
Founder Joseph Foran has led Matador since 2003 and owns significant stock, aligning interests with shareholders. The San Mateo midstream JV and the Cardinal acquisition show a strategy of building durable fee-based cash flow alongside E&P operations.
Oil and gas remain essential for energy security, transport fuels, petrochemicals, and power generation. The offset is that U.S. shale faces depletion rates, cost inflation, regulatory pressure, and long-term energy transition risk.
At $49.68, MTDR sits above the tool-verified base case, below the bullish case, and well above the bear case. The current price embeds modest expectations. Margin of safety improves if the price declines toward cash-flow support or if midstream revenue becomes a larger share of total earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR quote reference | $49.68 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance MTDR summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $6.17 billion reported and $6.17 billion calculated from $49.68 x 124.2 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 124.2 million shares outstanding based on market cap and price | Yahoo Finance and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.59 billion TTM revenue, cross-checked across Yahoo Finance and TradingView | Yahoo Finance MTDR statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $483 million TTM net income available to common (includes a weak Q1 2026) | Yahoo Finance MTDR financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EV/EBITDA | $9.63 billion enterprise value and 4.61x EV/EBITDA | Yahoo Finance MTDR statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $30 million cash, 60.38% debt-to-equity ratio | Yahoo Finance MTDR balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| San Mateo Cardinal Midstream acquisition | San Mateo (MTDR midstream JV) announced $752M acquisition of Cardinal Midstream to expand Delaware Basin midstream footprint | Business Wire via Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.80x TTM PE, 1.69x price to sales, 1.09x price to book, 6.77x forward PE, 0.75 PEG ratio | Yahoo Finance MTDR statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $52-54, 200-day moving average near $44-46, RSI near 45, 20-day average volume 1.75 million shares | Yahoo Finance MTDR chart data and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
This MTDR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, scenario assumptions, and tool-verified calculations as of July 12, 2026, and they can be wrong if commodity prices, production results, midstream execution, capital allocation, regulation, or market sentiment changes.
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