Permian Resources Corporation research snapshot
PR AI stock analysis currently reads Permian Resources as a scaled, low-cost Delaware Basin oil and gas producer with operational flexibility, improving balance-sheet quality, and meaningful exposure to crude prices. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the July 8 technical snapshot used a $19.42 share price. Multiplied by 852.3 million adjusted diluted shares, that implies about $16.55 billion of equity value, close to the $16.45 billion reported market value. The positive case depends on disciplined capital spending, oil production growth, cost control, and free cash flow. The central risk is that commodity prices, gas basis differentials, hedges, and shale reinvestment needs can change earnings quickly. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$19.42
Market cap
About $16.55 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Low-cost Delaware Basin producer with commodity-cycle risk
Trend status
Above the 200-day average but testing the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Permian Resources develops oil, NGL, and natural-gas properties in the Delaware Basin, converting acreage, drilling inventory, infrastructure access, and operating execution into commodity production and cash flow. | High |
| Moat | Its edge is low-cost Delaware Basin scale, contiguous acreage, operating data, infrastructure access, and repeatable drilling execution. This is a cost and inventory advantage, not a brand moat, and it does not eliminate oil-price exposure. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-CEOs James Walter and Will Hickey have emphasized bolt-on acquisitions, drilling efficiency, balance-sheet improvement, and flexibility to raise or reduce activity with commodity conditions. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 oil and gas sales were $5.07 billion and Class A net income was $935 million. In Q1 2026, PR produced 412.9 MBoe/d, generated $815 million of operating cash flow, and reported $513 million of adjusted free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $19.42, financial_rigor.py verified about 22.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.44x book value, a 3.30% dividend yield, and a 2.11% TTM free-cash-flow yield. Those trailing figures include a large Q1 derivative loss and should not be read as a normalized commodity-cycle multiple. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 9 technical snapshot placed PR below its 50-day simple average near $19.69 but above its 200-day simple average near $16.54, leaving a constructive longer trend without short-term confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because crude and gas prices, Waha differentials, hedging results, reserve depletion, capital spending, debt, environmental rules, and acquisition execution can materially affect cash flow and valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical reporting and arithmetic. Medium for future free cash flow because the model cannot know future commodity prices, differentials, well results, or management responses. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. PR has identifiable operating strengths, but a durable return requires a favorable commodity and capital-allocation outcome rather than only a low headline earnings multiple. | Medium-low |
PR AI stock forecast
The PR AI stock forecast uses scenarios around the $19.42 July 8 technical-data price, not a promised price target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation using $1.60 normalized EPS, 15%, 8%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth, and 12x, 10x, and 8x terminal multiples produced mechanical three-year outputs of about $29.20, $20.20, and $11.00. Oil prices, hedges, spending, production, and share count can make actual results materially different.
$25 to $29
More likely if crude prices and realizations support strong margins, oil production reaches or exceeds guidance, drilling and completion costs stay low, free cash flow grows after capital spending, debt falls, and the market pays a low-teens multiple for durable cash generation.
$18 to $21
More likely if PR delivers roughly its 2026 operating plan, oil prices remain adequate for maintenance and shareholder returns, capital discipline holds, and the market applies a mid-cycle earnings multiple.
$10 to $14
More likely if oil or gas realizations weaken, Waha pricing hurts gas value, hedges or derivative marks reduce reported earnings, capital intensity rises, inventory quality disappoints, or the market discounts shale producers at a lower cycle multiple.
PR AI technical analysis
PR AI technical analysis uses the July 9, 2026 snapshot, which showed a $19.42 share price, a 50-day simple moving average of $19.69, a 200-day simple moving average of $16.54, and RSI of 54.37. This static page does not fetch live charts, so every level should be checked against current market data before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $19.42 | TipRanks technical snapshot dated July 9, 2026. The July 11 cutoff follows the latest quoted snapshot used here. |
| Near support | $16.54 to $18.78 | The 200-day simple average was $16.54 and the 20-day simple average was $18.78 in the July 9 snapshot. These are reference areas, not guaranteed floors. |
| Near resistance | $19.50 to $22.48 | The 100-day simple average was $19.50, the 50-day simple average was $19.69, and the reported 52-week high was $22.48. |
| 50-day moving average | About $19.69 | TipRanks listed this simple moving average on July 9, 2026. Price was slightly below it, so a sustained reclaim would improve short-term trend confirmation. |
| 200-day moving average | About $16.54 | TipRanks listed this simple moving average on July 9, 2026. Price remained above it, supporting the longer-term trend reference. |
| Momentum | Neutral RSI, mixed MACD | RSI was 54.37, while MACD was negative 0.24. The signals did not provide a clean directional edge. |
| Volume | Confirm moves with above-average liquidity | Commodity-sensitive equities can gap around oil prices, OPEC news, guidance, reserve updates, and earnings. Volume should confirm any break through moving-average levels. |
| Volatility | High and commodity-linked | PR can move with WTI, gas realizations, Waha basis conditions, hedge marks, capital plans, and market risk appetite. |
| Invalidation | Failure below the $16.54 long-term average | A sustained break below the 200-day reference after a failed $19.50 to $19.69 recovery would weaken the trend-following thesis. |
PR AI trading strategy
The PR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a commodity-sensitive exploration and production stock. It is not personalized advice and should be used with live quotes, a stated risk budget, oil and gas market context, and upcoming earnings dates.
Wait for PR to reclaim the $19.50 to $19.69 moving-average area and hold above it with volume, while crude prices and the broader energy group remain supportive. A move toward the 52-week high should be assessed with updated production and capital-spending information.
Invalidate the setup if price loses the $16.54 200-day area after a failed recovery, or if lower oil realizations, weaker guidance, or capital inflation change the cash-flow case.
If PR approaches the $16.54 to $18.78 support zone, compare the drawdown with spot and forward commodity prices, hedge coverage, well performance, balance-sheet leverage, and planned capital expenditure before treating it as a value opportunity.
Do not average down solely because the trailing multiple looks low. A lower oil-price deck or a higher reinvestment requirement can reduce normalized free cash flow.
Track oil and total production, cash capital expenditure, adjusted free cash flow, drilling cost per lateral foot, Waha gas realization, hedges, net debt, ratings, acquisitions, dividend policy, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence if output growth needs materially higher capital, debt reduction stalls, or free cash flow depends on a commodity-price assumption that is no longer supported by the market.
Investment research summary
Customers pay for oil, NGLs, and natural gas produced from PR acreage. The economic engine is converting Delaware Basin inventory, geology, land, infrastructure, drilling knowledge, and capital into hydrocarbons at a competitive cost.
PR benefits from a concentrated Delaware Basin position, scale, operating learning curves, lower drilling and completion costs, infrastructure access, and bolt-on acquisition capabilities. The advantage is relative cost and inventory quality rather than price-setting power.
The thesis fails if oil and gas prices weaken, Waha differentials persist, well productivity or inventory quality declines, capital costs rise, hedges work against market pricing, leverage becomes restrictive, or acquisitions dilute per-share value.
Management has focused on operational flexibility, cost reduction, debt repayment, corporate simplification, and small acreage deals. The capital-allocation test is whether acquisitions and growth improve free cash flow per share through the cycle.
The Delaware Basin remains a strategically important source of U.S. oil and associated gas. Long-run demand, supply response, pipeline capacity, regulation, and the energy transition create uncertainty, while short-run commodity prices dominate financial results.
PR has an asset-backed business and modest reported leverage, but the margin of safety should be assessed against a conservative oil-price deck and sustaining capital needs. The trailing P/E and free-cash-flow yield are distorted by Q1 derivative marks and do not establish intrinsic value by themselves.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PR price and market capitalization reference | $19.42 price on the July 9 technical snapshot; $16.45 billion reported market capitalization | TipRanks technical snapshot and Economic Times market-data snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market-cap arithmetic | $16.55 billion, verified as $19.42 x 852.305 million adjusted diluted shares; 0.64% from the $16.45 billion reported reference | financial_rigor.py using Permian Resources Q1 2026 release and market-data snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 oil and gas sales | $5.065 billion | Permian Resources 2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Class A common stock | $935.174 million | Permian Resources 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 production and oil sales | 412.9 MBoe/d total production, 192.3 MBbls/d oil, and $1.388 billion oil and gas sales | Permian Resources Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow | $815 million operating cash flow, $979 million adjusted operating cash flow, and $513 million adjusted free cash flow | Permian Resources Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | $170.780 million cash, $3.575 billion total debt, $3.404 billion net debt, and 0.8x net debt to LQA EBITDAX at March 31, 2026 | Permian Resources Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 operating plan | 400,000 to 430,000 Boe/d total production, 190,000 to 195,000 Bbls/d oil production, and $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion cash capital expenditure | Permian Resources Q1 2026 investor presentation | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | $19.42 price, $19.69 50-day SMA, $16.54 200-day SMA, 54.37 RSI, and negative 0.24 MACD on the July 9 snapshot | TipRanks technical analysis | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 22.58x TTM GAAP P/E, 1.44x P/B, 47.37x P/FCF, 2.11% FCF yield, and 3.30% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis TTM EPS, book value, FCF per share, and dividend data | July 11, 2026 |
This PR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Permian Resources Corporation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if commodity prices, realized differentials, hedge values, production, reserves, costs, capital allocation, regulation, or market conditions change.
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