Chevron Corporation research snapshot
CVX AI stock analysis currently reads Chevron as a high-quality integrated energy company delivering a record earnings quarter on rising oil prices, record U.S. production, strong refining margins, early Hess synergies, and ahead-of-schedule cost cuts. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, CVX closed near $196.83 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization of about $386.18 billion and an analyst consensus price target near $215. The key question for the CVX AI stock forecast is whether the Iran war driven price spike is a durable earnings tailwind or a temporary windfall, so the analysis uses scenario ranges and flags oil prices, Hess integration, refining margins, debt, and capital returns as the variables that matter most.
Current price
$196.83
Market cap
$386.18 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Strong integrated energy franchise in a record earnings cycle, with the war-driven oil and product price spike as the main sustainability question
Trend status
Uptrend, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a record Q2
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Chevron sells essential energy through upstream oil and gas, LNG, pipelines, refining, marketing, chemicals exposure, and a new data-center power business. | High |
| Moat | Scale, advantaged reserves, integrated logistics, a large refining footprint, project capability, and balance-sheet access support the moat, but commodity pricing still limits durable pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Mike Wirth and CFO Eimear Bonner have delivered record Q2 results, $3 billion of structural cost cuts six months early, Hess synergies 50% above the initial target, and more than $8 billion of debt reduction. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 earnings were $12.1 billion or $6.11 per share, adjusted earnings were $6.06 per share, and TTM net income rose to about $20.59 billion on roughly $209.4 billion of TTM revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $196.83, CVX screens near 18.9x TTM EPS, 13.2x forward EPS, 2.12x book, 14.3x free cash flow, and a 3.62% dividend yield, with an EV/EBITDA near 5.3. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 67, so the chart is in a short-term uptrend that is approaching overbought territory. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are a war-resolution oil-price reversal, refining margin compression, Venezuela and Middle East exposure, CPC pipeline risk, policy changes, and capital return pressure if commodity prices normalize. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because source data is rich and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because energy stocks can reprice quickly with commodities and geopolitical headlines. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CVX is a strong franchise, but the current price already reflects a record earnings quarter, so the margin of safety depends on whether normalized earnings can support the valuation after the war premium fades. | Medium |
CVX AI stock forecast
The CVX AI stock forecast is scenario-based because trailing and forward earnings are elevated by the Iran war. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $196.83, FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $14.74, and a three-year model that compounds EPS at 8%, 3%, and negative 10% with exit multiples of 14x, 12x, and 9x, the model points to roughly $97 in a bear case, $193 in a base case, and $260 in a bullish case before dividends. The analyst consensus lands near $215, and outcomes depend heavily on whether the war premium persists and whether Chevron holds its cost and synergy gains once commodity prices normalize.
$240 to $275 before dividends
More likely if crude and refined product prices stay elevated, U.S. and Guyana production keep growing, Hess synergies and $3 billion of cost cuts hold, the Microsoft power deal expands, debt stays low, and investors pay a higher multiple on normalized earnings.
$180 to $215 before dividends
More likely if oil prices settle down but stay above mid-cycle levels, refining margins remain solid, production grows 2% to 3%, and the dividend plus modest buybacks anchor total return near current levels.
$90 to $125 before dividends
More likely if the Iran war resolves and crude and product prices fall sharply, refining margins compress, Venezuela or Iraq upside stalls, geopolitical disruptions hit operations, or the market re-rates Chevron on lower normalized earnings.
CVX AI technical analysis
CVX AI technical analysis is constructive but stretched as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed a July 31, 2026 close of $196.83, a 20-day moving average near $185.34, a 50-day moving average near $182.75, a 100-day moving average near $188.04, a 200-day moving average near $175.38, RSI near 67.14, and a 20-day average volume near 7.5 million shares. The stock is in a short-term uptrend above key averages, with momentum approaching overbought after the earnings rally.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $196.83 | Barchart and StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $196.83, up 2.35% on the day after the record Q2 report, with after-hours trading near $198.49. |
| Immediate support | $185 to $188 | This area brackets the 20-day moving average near $185.34 and the 100-day moving average near $188.04, which are the first levels a pullback must hold. |
| Deeper support | $175 to $183 | This range spans the 200-day moving average near $175.38 and the 50-day moving average near $182.75, a key zone that separates a healthy uptrend from a breakdown. |
| Near resistance | $200 to $205 | The round $200 level and the psychological $200 to $205 zone are the next upside targets after the record earnings report. |
| Upper resistance | $214 to $215 | The 52-week high of $214.71 and the analyst consensus target near $215 sit just above the round-number zone and are the main upside reference points. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $185.34, 50-day near $182.75, 100-day near $188.04, 200-day near $175.38 | The stock is above all four averages, a bullish alignment, but momentum near RSI 67 warns that a short-term pullback is possible after the sharp move. |
| Momentum | RSI near 67.14, ADX near 24.7 | Momentum is strong but approaching overbought. The 14-day ADX near 24.7 shows a trend that is strengthening but not extreme. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 7.5 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because energy headlines and earnings can create sharp single-day moves around crude-price and geopolitical changes. |
| Volatility | 14-day historic volatility near 20%, ATR near $4.26 | Volatility is elevated by the war-driven oil moves, so wide stops and smaller positions are appropriate until the market settles. |
| Invalidation | Close below $175, then below $185 on an intraday basis | A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $175.38 would weaken the uptrend. A decisive break below $185 would put the short-term momentum at risk and open the deeper support zone. |
CVX AI trading strategy
The CVX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with oil prices, refining margins, production growth, Hess integration, debt, the data-center power business, dividend coverage, and capital returns.
Watch for CVX to hold above the $185 to $188 moving-average zone and push through $200 to $205 on sustained oil-price support, stable refining margins, and continued production growth.
A close below the 200-day moving average near $175.38 should reduce trend confidence, especially if oil prices roll over or management signals weaker cash flow after the war premium fades.
If CVX pulls back toward the $175 to $183 zone without dividend stress or reserve-quality deterioration, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power and the record-quarter cash flow momentum.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if the pullback coincides with a sharp oil-price decline, refining margin compression, or evidence that the record Q2 was mostly a one-time geopolitical windfall.
Track Brent and WTI prices, Strait of Hormuz and CPC pipeline developments, Permian and Guyana output, Hess production contribution, refining margins, net debt, buybacks, dividends, the Microsoft power deal, and capital spending discipline.
Position sizing should reflect that Chevron is a high-quality cyclical whose near-term earnings are unusually dependent on the Iran war environment.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Chevron because transportation, industry, power systems, chemicals, and governments need reliable energy supply. The business turns long-lived reserves, refining assets, logistics, and marketing networks into cash flow across commodity cycles.
Chevron has scale, technical project skill, integrated assets, reserve access, capital-market access, global relationships, and decades of operating know-how. The moat is real, but commodity prices prevent the company from controlling end-market pricing the way a software or consumer franchise can.
The thesis fails if the Iran war resolves and crude and product prices normalize sharply, refining margins compress, Hess synergies and cost cuts do not hold, debt rises again, geopolitical disruptions hurt operations, or energy policy reduces future returns on carbon-intensive assets.
Mike Wirth and CFO Eimear Bonner delivered record Q2 earnings, $3 billion of structural cost reductions six months early, Hess synergies 50% above target, and more than $8 billion of debt reduction. The test is whether these gains hold when commodity prices normalize.
Oil and gas remain essential to global energy security, and Chevron benefits from LNG, Permian scale, deepwater assets, Guyana, the Tengizchevroil expansion, Iraq and Venezuela optionality, and data-center power demand. The offsets are cyclicality, policy pressure, and carbon-transition risk.
At $196.83, the stock trades near 18.9x TTM EPS and 13.2x forward EPS with a 3.62% dividend yield, so the market is pricing in elevated earnings. Margin of safety improves if earnings normalize above mid-cycle estimates or if the stock pulls back toward the moving-average support zone while the balance sheet stays strong.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVX quote reference | $196.83 close on July 31, 2026, up 2.35%, with an after-hours reference near $198.49 | StockAnalysis CVX overview and Barchart quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $386.18 billion reported and $385.79 billion calculated from $196.83 x 1.96 billion shares, a 0.10% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis CVX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.96 billion shares outstanding with a float of 1.88 billion | StockAnalysis CVX statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $12.1 billion reported earnings, $6.11 per share diluted, and $12.0 billion or $6.06 per share adjusted | Chevron Q2 2026 results release | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | About $70 billion of revenue in Q2 2026, well above consensus near $60 billion to $62 billion | CNBC earnings coverage and Chevron Q2 2026 results release | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and debt | Cash flow from operations excluding working capital near $19.7 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $15.4 billion, and more than $8 billion of debt reduction in the quarter | Chevron Q2 2026 earnings call | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | Worldwide production of about 4 million barrels per day, up 20% year over year, with record U.S. production near 2 million barrels per day | CNBC earnings coverage | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment earnings | Production segment earnings of $8.2 billion, up 200% year over year, and refining segment earnings of $4.9 billion, up about 500% | CNBC earnings coverage | August 1, 2026 |
| Cost cuts and Hess synergies | $3 billion of structural cost reductions achieved six months early, with Hess synergies of $1.5 billion delivered six months ahead of schedule at 50% above the initial target | Chevron Q2 2026 earnings call | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of about $184.43 billion, down from $193.41 billion in FY2024, and Chevron net income of $12.30 billion | Chevron Q4 2025 results release and StockAnalysis financials | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue near $209.37 billion, TTM net income near $20.59 billion, TTM EPS near $10.41, and TTM free cash flow near $27.01 billion | StockAnalysis CVX statistics and financials | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $5.33 billion cash and time deposits, $45.43 billion total debt, and $40.10 billion net debt at March 31, 2026, with debt reduced by more than $8 billion in Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis CVX statistics and Chevron Q2 2026 earnings call | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $10.41, book value per share $92.91, free cash flow per share $13.77, dividend $7.12, and revenue per share near $106.82 | StockAnalysis CVX statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical data | 20-day moving average $185.34, 50-day moving average $182.75, 100-day moving average $188.04, 200-day moving average $175.38, RSI 67.14, and 20-day average volume near 7.5 million shares | Barchart CVX technical analysis and StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend and capital returns | $7.12 annual dividend, 3.62% yield, 39 years of dividend growth, ex-dividend date of August 19, 2026, and a payout ratio near 68% | StockAnalysis CVX dividend history | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average target of $215 across 25 analysts, a median near $220, and a range from $170 to $236 | StockAnalysis CVX forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue near $225.32 billion with adjusted EPS near $14.74, and FY2027 revenue near $208.62 billion with adjusted EPS near $12.69 | StockAnalysis CVX forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Crude price context | WTI crude averaged about $92.45 per barrel in Q2 2026, up 27% from the first quarter, on Middle East supply disruption from the Iran war | CNBC earnings coverage | August 1, 2026 |
This CVX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Chevron stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, oil-price, balance-sheet, geopolitical, or policy information changes.
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