Chord Energy Corporation research snapshot
CHRD AI stock analysis reads Chord Energy as a high-quality, low-leverage Williston Basin pure-play E&P company that raised its 2026 outlook after a strong first quarter. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, CHRD closed at $140.38 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization of about $7.90 billion. Q1 2026 delivered oil volumes of 158.0 MBopd, above the high end of guidance, with adjusted EBITDA of $713 million and adjusted free cash flow of $324 million. Chord updated its 2026 outlook to roughly $3.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow at $80 WTI and $3.25 Henry Hub, with capital unchanged at about $1.4 billion. The balance sheet is near fortress-grade with about $1.5 billion of debt, $225.8 million of cash, and a fully undrawn revolver. The stock now trades at 7.40x forward earnings and 5.41x EV/EBITDA, a discount to the broader market, but the 20% rally from July lows has narrowed the margin of safety. The CHRD AI stock forecast depends on oil prices, 4-mile lateral efficiency gains, and the pace of share repurchases. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$140.38
Market cap
$7.90 billion verified market cap
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Low-leverage Williston Basin operator with a raised 2026 outlook, roughly $1.4B adjusted FCF guide, and a fortress balance sheet, though the stock is near 52-week highs after a sharp rally and remains oil-price dependent
Trend status
Constructive near-term trend: price sits above the 50-day moving average of $129.30 and the 200-day of $114.50 with RSI near 63.5, after a roughly 20% recovery from July lows, still below the 52-week high of $151.95
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CHRD is a low-cost Williston Basin producer with Q1 2026 total production of 275.6 MBoepd (57.3% oil), oil volumes above the high end of guidance, industry-leading 4-mile laterals, and best-in-class leverage ratios. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a dominant Williston Basin acreage position, extended-reach lateral expertise (3-mile and 4-mile), a low-cost structure, and top-quartile scale as the most active Bakken operator. It is weaker where oil prices, basin concentration, and commodity pricing create unavoidable volatility. | Medium |
| Management | Danny Brown and the team delivered oil volumes above the high end of guidance in Q1 2026, raised the 2026 oil volume outlook by 2 MBopd with capital unchanged, executed the first full 4-mile Toonie pad, and returned $145 million to shareholders while avoiding procyclical buybacks. | High |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $713.0 million and adjusted FCF was $324.0 million, with a raised 2026 outlook of roughly $3.1 billion adjusted EBITDA and $1.4 billion adjusted FCF at $80 WTI. Net debt/EBITDA is near 0.88x with a fully undrawn revolver. | High |
| Valuation | At $140.38, CHRD trades at 7.40x forward earnings, 5.41x EV/EBITDA, 0.98x book value, and a 3.70% dividend yield. These multiples are discounted relative to the broader market but are less extreme than the July discount after the stock rallied roughly 20%. | High |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis data show CHRD above the 50-day moving average of $129.30 and the 200-day of $114.50 with an RSI near 63.5, a constructive setup after a sharp recovery from July lows, with resistance near the 52-week high of $151.95. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are oil price weakness, pure-play Williston Basin concentration, derivative accounting noise in GAAP earnings, potential reserve replacement challenges, and commodity price-driven multiple compression. A TTM GAAP net loss of about $68 million reflects derivatives, not cash flow. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because SEC filings, earnings releases, and StockAnalysis/Yahoo Finance data are consistent. Forecast confidence is lower because CHRD is highly sensitive to WTI oil prices and macro energy sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHRD has a high-quality asset base, a fortress balance sheet, and a raised 2026 outlook, but investment returns depend heavily on the direction of oil prices and whether the valuation discount narrows or widens from a price that has already recovered sharply. | Medium |
CHRD AI stock forecast
The CHRD AI stock forecast uses the $140.38 cutoff price and FY2026E consensus adjusted EPS of $19.65. The audited three-year scenario model produced a bearish area near $72, a base area near $155 to $171, and a bullish area near $223 before dividends. The page presents scenario ranges anchored to these results and the analyst price target range of $129 to $209, with the wide spread reflecting energy commodity price sensitivity.
$185 to $215
More likely if WTI oil averages above $80/bbl, 4-mile lateral efficiencies continue improving, share count keeps declining through repurchases, and the market re-rates CHRD toward 8-9x forward earnings. This area aligns with the analyst high target of $209 and recent targets from Wells Fargo ($175) and Siebert Williams ($187).
$135 to $175
More likely if WTI averages $65 to $80, production holds near the 161 MBopd 2026 oil guide, capital returns continue, and the valuation stays near 7x forward earnings. This aligns with the analyst average target of $165.67 and targets from UBS ($153), Roth MKM ($145), and Truist ($170).
$60 to $90
More likely if WTI drops below $55, the company faces reserve replacement challenges, 4-mile results disappoint, or energy multiples contract on recession or energy transition sentiment. The scenario model places the bearish area near $67 to $72.
CHRD AI technical analysis
CHRD AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $140.38 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average of $129.30 and the 200-day of $114.50, with an RSI near 63.5. After touching a 52-week low of $84.25, CHRD recovered sharply on higher oil prices and a strong Q1, and now sits about 8% below the 52-week high of $151.95.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $140.38 | Verified close on July 31, 2026 from StockAnalysis, with pre-market trading near $139.65 on August 3, 2026. |
| 52-week range | $84.25 to $151.95 | The 52-week range frames the current price in the upper third, about 8% below the high after a strong recovery off the April 2026 low. |
| 50-day moving average | $129.30 | The 50-day moving average at $129.30 sits below price, confirming the constructive near-term momentum after the July recovery. |
| 200-day moving average | $114.50 | The 200-day moving average near $114.50 is the major long-term trend reference. Price is well above it, and a break back below would signal a structural setback. |
| Near support | $129 to $133 | The 50-day moving average and the round $130 zone form near support. Pullbacks that hold here keep the constructive setup intact. |
| Key support | $114 to $120 | The 200-day moving average and the $114 to $120 zone are the key support area. A sustained break below it would target lower levels. |
| 52-week low | $84.25 | The 52-week low at $84.25 is the ultimate downside reference from the past year, reached in April 2026 before the recovery. |
| Near resistance | $145 to $148 | Initial resistance sits near the round $145 zone, just ahead of the 52-week high. |
| Key resistance | $151.95 | The 52-week high at $151.95 is the key resistance. A breakout above it would signal a new leg of the uptrend and open a path toward analyst targets. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63.5, above both key moving averages | RSI near 63.5 reflects positive momentum without being overbought. Watch for RSI divergence near the 52-week high as a potential signal. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 775,000 shares | Twenty-day average volume is about 775,000 shares. Sustained above-average volume on advances would confirm institutional accumulation. |
| Volatility | Beta of 0.38 (5Y monthly) | The low beta masks CHRD sensitivity to oil price moves. Watch crude oil volatility as a leading indicator for CHRD moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $129 and sustained break below $114.50 | A close below $129 would weaken the short-term momentum. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average at $114.50 would invalidate the constructive trend. |
CHRD AI trading strategy
The CHRD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with WTI oil prices, production trends, capital efficiency, shareholder returns, and the Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 5, 2026.
With CHRD above the 50-day ($129.30) and 200-day ($114.50) moving averages, a trend-following approach waits for a pullback toward the $129 to $133 support zone on above-average volume while WTI holds above $70, then monitors for a reclaim of the $145 to $148 resistance.
A close back below $129 should reduce trend confidence, especially if WTI fails to hold $65 or if Chord cuts full-year guidance. Position size should reflect energy sector volatility.
If CHRD pulls back toward the $114 to $120 zone without a material deterioration in oil prices or operating metrics, compare the lower price with forward earnings (about 7.4x), book value (0.98x), dividend yield (3.70%), and buyback rate before considering a reversion entry.
Do not confuse a falling stock with value. The stock is near 52-week highs after a sharp rally, so reversion entries should be limited to the key support zones and rechecked against oil price trends, basin dynamics, and the hedge book.
Track WTI and Henry Hub prices, Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, quarterly production volumes, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted FCF, LOE per BOE, D&C capital efficiency, 4-mile lateral results, share buyback pace, dividend coverage, and net debt.
CHRD is a capital-return story. If buybacks slow materially or the dividend is cut, the investment case weakens regardless of oil prices. Position sizing must account for single-basin concentration risk.
Investment research summary
Customers (global oil buyers) pay CHRD for crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas extracted from the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana. The company generates revenue by selling production into global commodity markets at prevailing prices, with crude oil the dominant revenue driver.
Chord advantages are its premier acreage position in the Williston Basin, expertise in extended-reach lateral drilling (3-mile and 4-mile), a low-cost structure, and scale that makes it the most active operator in the basin. These are real but do not protect against commodity price declines.
The thesis fails if oil prices decline and stay low, if Chord cannot replace reserves economically, if 4-mile lateral results disappoint, if bolt-on M&A destroys value, if debt markets tighten, or if the energy transition permanently reduces demand expectations and valuation multiples.
Danny Brown and the team have focused on debt reduction, operational efficiency, and returning capital to shareholders. Q1 2026 oil volumes beat the high end of guidance, the 2026 outlook was raised with capital unchanged, and the first full 4-mile Toonie pad was executed in line with expectations.
The oil and gas industry faces a structural tension: elevated prices driven by supply concerns, Middle East tensions, and disciplined supply, while long-term energy transition concerns cap valuation multiples. Pure-play operators like CHRD benefit from the current supply-demand balance but carry higher risk than diversified companies.
At $140.38, CHRD prices in a moderate discount reflected in 7.40x forward earnings and 5.41x EV/EBITDA. Margin of safety depends less on balance sheet survival (net debt/EBITDA near 0.88x is very safe) and more on whether oil prices stay supportive of the raised 2026 cash flow outlook, since the stock has already recovered sharply from July lows.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHRD quote reference | $140.38 close on July 31, 2026, pre-market near $139.65 on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.90 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py using $140.38 x 56.30 million shares with 0.04% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $9.18 billion, with 5.41x EV/EBITDA, 18.32x EV/FCF, and 1.83x EV/sales | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 56.30 million shares as of March 31, 2026 (57.1 million fully diluted), up 0.24% year over year | Chord Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $5.02 billion, cross-validated between StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance within 0.00% | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income and EPS | About -$68.12 million net income and -$1.19 EPS, reflecting derivative mark-to-market noise rather than cash flow weakness | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Oil volumes of 158.0 MBopd above the high end of guidance, total production of 275.6 MBoepd, adjusted EBITDA of $713.0 million, adjusted FCF of $324.0 million, and adjusted net income of $258.9 million ($4.56/diluted) | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual results | Revenue of $4.59 billion, down 6.76%, and GAAP net income of about $42.7 million, down about 94.95%, on lower oil prices | StockAnalysis financials overview | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Approximately $3.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow at $80 WTI and $3.25 Henry Hub, with FY26 oil volumes raised to 161 MBopd at midpoint and capital unchanged at about $1.4 billion | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $1,500 million of senior notes, $225.8 million of cash, fully undrawn $2.0 billion revolver, and about $2,193 million of liquidity at March 31, 2026 | Chord Energy Q1 2026 balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Leverage ratios | Net debt/EBITDA near 0.88x, debt/equity of 0.19, and current ratio of 1.02 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $500.9 million with operating cash flow of $1.89 billion and capital expenditures of about $1.39 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $5.20 annual, 3.70% yield, paid quarterly at $1.30 per share, with the last ex-dividend date on May 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 7.40x forward PE, 1.57x price/sales, 0.98x price/book, 15.78x price/FCF, and 0.57x PEG, verified with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 15 analysts with an average price target of $165.67 and a range of $129 to $209 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026E consensus estimates | Revenue of $5.99 billion, up 30.54%, and adjusted EPS of $19.65, with consensus free cash flow of about $1.4 billion | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear near $72, base near $155 to $171, bull near $223 using $19.65 FY2026E EPS, -10% to 10% growth, and 5x to 10x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $129.30, 200-day moving average $114.50, RSI 63.52, beta 0.38, 52-week range $84.25 to $151.95, and 20-day average volume about 775,000 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.32 million shares, about 5.90% of shares outstanding, with a short ratio of 3.49 days | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This CHRD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and can be wrong if oil prices, production volumes, capital costs, reserve replacement, management decisions, energy transition policies, or market conditions change. Verify live prices, SEC filings, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
