Bullish case
$160 to $185
More likely if WTI oil averages above $80/bbl, 4-mile lateral efficiencies continue improving, share count declines another 5%+ annually, and the market re-rates CHRD toward 10x+ adjusted EBITDA or a higher P/E multiple.
Chord Energy Corporation research snapshot
CHRD AI Stock Analysis
CHRD AI stock analysis currently reads Chord Energy as a high-quality, low-leverage Williston Basin pure-play E&P company with industry-leading free cash flow generation, a 4.43% dividend yield, aggressive share buybacks, and a refreshed asset base after the Enerplus acquisition and XTO asset purchase. The July 12, 2026 data cutoff uses a $117.39 share price, about $6.61 billion verified market cap, TTM adjusted EPS near $9.53, TTM adjusted free cash flow near $780 million, and Q1 2026 total production of 275.6 MBoepd. The main observation is valuation: at 12.3x adjusted P/E and 4.9x EV/EBITDA, CHRD trades at a discount to its history and some peers despite a fortress balance sheet. The CHRD AI stock forecast depends on oil prices, capital efficiency gains from 4-mile laterals, and the pace of shareholder returns. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$117.39
Market cap
$6.61 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Low-leverage Williston Basin operator with strong FCF and valuation discount
Trend status
Technically in a downtrend from 52-week high of $151.94, with price below declining moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. CHRD has thorough SEC filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance data, and analyst coverage from 12+ firms. However, the company has only existed as Chord Energy since mid-2022, so long-term comparable history is limited to pro forma combined data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting the fortress balance sheet and FCF yield while under-weighting pure-play Williston Basin concentration, oil price sensitivity, GAAP earnings noise from derivative accounting, and the stock being 38% off its all-time high despite operational beats.
- ai Confidence
- High for Q1 2026 results, FY2025 financials, share count, market-cap math, balance sheet data, production metrics, and valuation ratios. Medium for medium-term price scenarios, reserve life estimates, and technical levels due to energy sector volatility.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business generates strong cash flow at current oil prices and has an exceptionally clean balance sheet, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because CHRD is a single-basin E&P company whose stock price is heavily influenced by WTI oil prices, which are outside management control.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CHRD is a low-cost Williston Basin producer with 275.6 MBoepd production (57% oil), industry-leading 4-mile laterals, best-in-class leverage ratios, and a track record of operational execution. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from dominant Williston Basin acreage position, extended-reach lateral expertise, low-cost structure, and top-quartier scale in the basin. It is weaker where oil prices, basin concentration, and commodity pricing create unavoidable volatility. | Medium |
| Management | Daniel Brown and the team have prioritized balance sheet strength, operational efficiency, capital returns, and portfolio optimization including the Enerplus merger integration and XTO acquisition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $2.33 billion and adjusted FCF was $817 million. Q1 2026 showed $713 million adjusted EBITDA and $321 million adjusted FCF. The balance sheet is among the cleanest in E&P with net debt/EBITDA near 0.55x. | High |
| Valuation | At $117.39, CHRD trades at 12.3x adjusted P/E, 4.9x EV/EBITDA, 0.82x book value, 8.1x P/FCF, and a 4.43% dividend yield. These multiples are discounted relative to the broader market and some E&P peers. | High |
| Technical trend | TradingView and ChartMill data show CHRD in a downtrend from the 52-week high of $151.94. Price has been below declining moving averages, and momentum indicators reflect the broader energy sector weakness in H1 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are oil price weakness, pure-play Williston Basin concentration, derivative accounting volatility, potential reserve replacement challenges, and commodity price-driven multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because SEC filings, earnings releases, and Yahoo Finance/StockAnalysis data are consistent. Forecast confidence is lower because CHRD is highly sensitive to WTI oil prices and macro energy sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHRD has a high-quality asset base and a fortress balance sheet, but investment returns depend heavily on the direction of oil prices and whether the current valuation discount narrows or widens. | Medium |
CHRD AI stock forecast
CHRD AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CHRD AI stock forecast uses the $117.39 cutoff price, TTM adjusted EPS near $9.53, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bullish area near $174, a base area near $96, and a bearish area near $51 before dividends. The wide range reflects energy commodity price sensitivity and sector multiple volatility.
Base case
$85 to $105
More likely if WTI averages $65 to $75, production stays near 275 MBoepd, capital returns continue, but the valuation multiple remains compressed due to energy sector sentiment and basin concentration concerns.
Bearish case
$45 to $60
More likely if WTI drops below $55, the company faces reserve replacement challenges, or energy multiples contract further due to recession, ESG headwinds, or a shift in investor preference away from fossil fuel producers.
CHRD AI technical analysis
CHRD AI Technical Analysis
CHRD AI technical analysis is bearish to neutral as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The stock traded at $117.39 on July 10, well below the 52-week high of $151.94 and the all-time high of $190.23. The 52-week low of $84.24 provides a long-term floor reference. Momentum readings reflect the broader energy selloff in H1 2026, with the stock attempting to stabilize after the Strait of Hormuz supply scare briefly lifted oil prices and CHRD shares in early July.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.39 | Latest verified market quote as of July 10, 2026 close, used for valuation and market-cap checks at the data cutoff. |
| 52-week range | $84.24 to $151.94 | The 52-week range provides a broad reference frame. The current price is in the lower half, about 23% off the high. |
| Near support | $110 to $116 | The stock has bounced in this area in recent trading. A close below $110 would suggest renewed downside pressure. |
| Key support | $100 to $105 | This psychological and technical area represents a potential floor. A break below $100 would target the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low | $84.24 | The ultimate support reference from the past year. A test of this level would imply significant oil price or sentiment deterioration. |
| Near resistance | $125 to $130 | The first resistance zone above current price. A reclaim would improve near-term technical tone. |
| Key resistance | $145 to $152 | The 52-week high zone. A breakout above $152 would signal a potential trend reversal after the H1 2026 downtrend. |
| Moving averages | Price below declining 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages | All three major moving averages are likely sloping down, reflecting the sustained downtrend from the 52-week high. |
| Momentum | RSI likely in 35-45 range, MACD negative | RSI is probably not deeply oversold but reflects persistent selling pressure. Watch for RSI divergence as a potential reversal signal. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 800,000 shares | Volume spikes on down days confirm distribution. Above-average volume on up days would signal potential accumulation. |
| Volatility | Beta of 0.38 (5Y monthly) | The low beta masks CHRD sensitivity to oil price moves. Watch crude oil volatility as a leading indicator for CHRD moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $110 and sustained below $100 | A close below $110 invalidates stabilization attempts. A sustained break below $100 targets a retest of the 52-week low at $84. |
CHRD AI trading strategy
CHRD AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CHRD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with WTI oil prices, production trends, capital efficiency, shareholder returns, and the July/August 2026 earnings report window.
Trend-following setup
Wait for CHRD to reclaim $125 to $130 on above-average volume while WTI stabilizes above $70. Confirmation would be a sustained move above the declining 50-day moving average.
A close back below $116 should reduce trend confidence, especially if WTI fails to hold $65 or if Chord reduces full-year guidance.
Contrarian value setup
If CHRD pulls toward $100 to $105 without a material deterioration in oil prices or operating metrics, compare the lower price with adjusted FCF yield, book value (0.82x P/B), dividend yield (4.43%), and buyback rate.
Do not confuse a falling stock with value. Recheck oil price trends, basin-specific dynamics, and the companys hedge book before adding exposure. Position size should reflect energy sector volatility.
Fundamental monitor
Track WTI and Henry Hub prices, quarterly production volumes, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted FCF, LOE per BOE, D&C capital efficiency, 4-mile lateral results, share buyback pace, dividend coverage, and net debt.
CHRD is a capital-return story. If buybacks slow materially or the dividend is cut, the investment case weakens regardless of oil prices. Position sizing must account for single-basin concentration risk.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers (global oil buyers) pay CHRD for crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas extracted from the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana. The company generates revenue by selling production into global commodity markets at prevailing prices.
Moat
Chord advantages are its premier acreage position in the Williston Basin, expertise in extended-reach lateral drilling (3-mile and 4-mile), low-cost structure, and scale that makes it the most active operator in the basin. These are real but do not protect against commodity price declines.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if oil prices decline and stay low, if Chord cannot replace reserves economically, if 4-mile lateral results disappoint, if the Enerplus or XTO acquisitions destroy value, if debt markets tighten, or if the energy transition permanently reduces demand expectations and valuation multiples.
Management
Daniel Brown and the team have focused on debt reduction, operational efficiency, bolt-on M&A, and returning capital to shareholders. The Enerplus integration and XTO acquisition execution, plus the 4-mile lateral program, are the key management tests going forward.
Industry trend
The oil and gas industry faces a structural tension: near-term supply discipline and demand support prices, while long-term energy transition concerns cap valuation multiples. Pure-play operators like CHRD benefit from the current supply-demand balance but carry higher risk than diversified companies.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $117.39, CHRD prices in a low multiple reflecting energy sector skepticism. Margin of safety depends less on balance sheet survival (net debt/EBITDA of 0.55x is very safe) and more on whether oil prices stay supportive of current cash flow generation and dividend coverage.
Source-backed data
CHRD Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHRD quote reference | $117.39 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance market quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.61 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py using $117.39 x 56.3 million shares | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 56.3 million shares (diluted: 57.1 million) | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenues | $1,665.6 million, including $1,150.6 million oil and gas revenue and $515.0 million purchased oil and gas sales | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted net income | $258.9 million, or $4.56 adjusted diluted EPS | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $713.0 million | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow | $321.2 million ($324 million excluding reimbursable) | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EBITDA | $2,327.0 million | Chord Energy Q4/FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $225.8 million cash and $1,500 million total debt at March 31, 2026 | Chord Energy Q1 2026 balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 production | 275.6 MBoepd (57.3% oil, 17.8% NGL, 24.9% natural gas) | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.30 per quarter ($5.20 annual), 4.43% forward yield | Chord Energy Q1 2026 earnings release and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Proved reserves | 917.5 MMboe at year-end 2025 (514.7 MMbbl oil) | Chord Energy 2025 10-K SEC filing | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CHRD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if oil prices, production volumes, capital costs, reserve replacement, management decisions, energy transition policies, or market conditions change.
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