RTX Corporation research snapshot
RTX AI stock analysis currently reads RTX Corporation as a scaled aerospace and defense supplier with three major engines: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, RTX traded near $200.85 with StockAnalysis reporting a $270.48 billion market cap and 1.35 billion shares outstanding. The bull case rests on Q1 2026 sales growth of 9%, adjusted EPS growth of 21%, free cash flow of $1.3 billion, a $271 billion backlog, and raised 2026 adjusted sales and EPS guidance. The caution is valuation: verified math shows 37.68x TTM EPS and 31.98x free cash flow per share, so the stock needs continued backlog conversion, Pratt & Whitney execution, commercial aftermarket demand, and defense order strength.
Current price
$200.85
Market cap
$270.48 billion reported market cap, $271.15 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace and defense compounder with strong backlog, improving cash flow, and valuation that already prices in execution progress
Trend status
Constructive technical trend, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near the upper-neutral zone
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RTX sells aircraft systems, engines, aftermarket services, missiles, air defense, sensors, radars, command systems, and secure defense electronics into long-cycle commercial and government markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed fleets, engine certification, mission-critical systems, long program cycles, defense clearances, switching costs, engineering depth, and service networks. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Chris Calio has emphasized execution, backlog conversion, production capacity, and new capability investment, with Q1 2026 guidance raised after strong segment performance. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $88.6 billion and free cash flow was $7.9 billion. Q1 2026 sales rose 9% to $22.1 billion, adjusted EPS rose 21%, and free cash flow reached $1.3 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $200.85, verified math shows 37.68x TTM EPS, 4.08x book value, 31.98x free cash flow per share, and a 1.35% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day moving average near $180.61 and 200-day moving average near $184.31, while RSI near 68.83 signals strong but extended momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because backlog is large and diversified, but engine inspection costs, tariffs, production bottlenecks, defense budget timing, leverage, and valuation sensitivity remain material. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data agree on core metrics. Forecast confidence is medium because the stock is sensitive to execution and multiple changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. RTX is a strong business, but the margin of safety is not large unless EPS and free cash flow keep compounding. | Medium |
RTX AI stock forecast
The RTX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $200.85 stock price, $5.33 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $262.10 in a bull case, $195.90 in a base case, and $117.30 in a bear case before dividends.
$250 to $270
More likely if RTX delivers the raised 2026 adjusted sales range of $92.5 billion to $93.5 billion, adjusted EPS of $6.70 to $6.90, free cash flow of $8.25 billion to $8.75 billion, continued commercial aftermarket growth, stable Pratt & Whitney remediation costs, and sustained defense backlog conversion.
$185 to $205
More likely if EPS grows at a mid to high single-digit pace, backlog remains strong, commercial aerospace demand normalizes without a margin surprise, and investors value RTX near 30x forward normalized earnings.
$110 to $125
More likely if engine inspection liabilities expand, tariffs pressure margins, defense orders slow, free cash flow misses guidance, debt reduction stalls, or the market rerates RTX toward a lower industrial multiple.
RTX AI technical analysis
RTX AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. Macrotrends showed the latest closing price at $200.85 for July 7, 2026. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $180.61, a 200-day moving average near $184.31, RSI near 68.83, beta near 0.30, and 20-day average volume near 5.33 million shares. Investing.com also showed RTX above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, supporting the same broad trend reading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $200.85 | Macrotrends listed RTX latest close at $200.85 as of July 7, 2026, and this page uses that price for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $193 to $195 | Recent price history and the Investing.com 50-day reference near $193.56 make this the first area to monitor if momentum cools. |
| Deeper support | $180 to $184 | StockAnalysis places the 50-day average near $180.61 and the 200-day average near $184.31, creating a lower moving-average support band. |
| Near resistance | $204 to $215 | A move above the $200 area needs confirmation toward the average analyst target near $215.14 and volume above the 20-day average. |
| 50-day moving average | $180.61 to $193.56 | Data providers differ on this moving-average reference, so this page treats it as a band rather than a single trigger. |
| 200-day moving average | $184.31 to $184.50 | StockAnalysis and Investing.com place the 200-day reference in a tight range, and current price is above it. |
| Momentum | RSI near 68.83 | Momentum is strong but close to overbought territory, so new entries need confirmation instead of chasing a single strong close. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 5.33 million shares | Breakouts above resistance should be judged against average volume and Q2 2026 earnings reaction. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.30 | RTX has low market beta, but engine, defense budget, tariff, and cash-flow headlines can still create sharp stock-specific moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $180, then below $170 | A close below the lower moving-average band would weaken the trend. A break under $170 would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
RTX AI trading strategy
The RTX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026, free cash flow guidance, Pratt & Whitney execution, Raytheon defense demand, Collins aftermarket trends, leverage, valuation, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RTX to hold above the $193 to $195 area and then close above the $204 to $215 resistance band with volume near or above the 20-day average, while earnings confirm backlog conversion and cash-flow guidance.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $180 as a warning because the setup would lose both momentum and moving-average support.
If RTX pulls back toward $180 to $184 without a cut to sales, EPS, free cash flow, or backlog quality, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because defense and aerospace demand are strong. Require evidence that Pratt & Whitney costs and tariffs remain manageable.
Track Q2 2026 results, $271 billion backlog, Collins commercial aftermarket, Pratt & Whitney F135 and geared turbofan execution, Raytheon land and air defense demand, operating cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and updated guidance.
Lower the rating if free cash flow falls short while valuation remains above 30x TTM earnings or if new engine liabilities absorb the cash-flow upside.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RTX because aircraft, engines, avionics, missiles, radars, sensors, and air defense systems must be certified, reliable, serviceable, and mission-ready for decades.
RTX benefits from installed fleets, certified engines, defense clearances, program incumbency, service networks, switching costs, scale purchasing, and engineering knowledge that competitors cannot quickly copy.
The thesis fails if Pratt & Whitney remediation expands, fixed-price defense programs absorb margin, tariffs cut profit, supply constraints delay deliveries, or the valuation multiple falls faster than EPS grows.
Chris Calio inherited a business where execution matters more than narrative. The key management test is turning demand and backlog into free cash flow while reducing risk from engine inspections and leverage.
RTX sits at the intersection of commercial aerospace recovery, global defense modernization, missile replenishment, air defense, secure sensing, and aftermarket service demand. These trends are durable but capital intensive.
At 37.68x TTM EPS and 31.98x free cash flow per share, RTX is not cheap on trailing numbers. Margin of safety improves if adjusted EPS approaches guidance and free cash flow reaches the $8.25 billion to $8.75 billion range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTX quote reference | $200.85 latest closing price as of July 7, 2026 | Macrotrends RTX stock price history | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $270.48 billion reported market cap, with $271.15 billion calculated from $200.85 x 1.35 billion shares | StockAnalysis RTX statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.35 billion shares outstanding | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales | $88.6 billion, up 10% versus prior year | RTX FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $7.9 billion, from $10.6 billion operating cash flow less $2.6 billion capital expenditures | RTX FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and EPS | $22.1 billion sales, $1.51 GAAP EPS, and $1.78 adjusted EPS | RTX Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog | $271 billion total backlog, including $162 billion commercial and $109 billion defense | RTX Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and valuation inputs | $6.82 billion cash, $38.94 billion total debt, $5.33 TTM EPS, $6.28 FCF per share, and $49.22 book value per share | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $180.61, 200-day moving average $184.31, RSI 68.83, and 20-day average volume 5.33 million shares | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Adjusted sales of $92.5 billion to $93.5 billion, adjusted EPS of $6.70 to $6.90, and free cash flow of $8.25 billion to $8.75 billion | RTX Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
This RTX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 8, 2026, and may be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, market prices, interest rates, or company guidance change.
