RTX Corporation research snapshot
RTX AI stock analysis reads RTX Corporation as a scaled aerospace and defense compounder with three major engines: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, RTX traded near $215.22 with StockAnalysis reporting a $290.06 billion market cap and 1.35 billion shares outstanding. The bull case rests on Q2 2026 adjusted sales growth of 16% organically, adjusted EPS growth of 21%, free cash flow of $2.9 billion, a record $289 billion backlog, and raised 2026 guidance across adjusted sales, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow. The caution is valuation: verified math shows 37.89x trailing EPS and 25.44x free cash flow per share, so the stock needs continued backlog conversion, Pratt & Whitney execution, commercial aftermarket demand, and defense order strength. The page is a research tool, not investment advice, and the forecast is scenario-based.
Current price
$215.22
Market cap
$290.06 billion reported market cap, $290.55 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace and defense compounder with record backlog, raised guidance, and a valuation that already prices in strong execution
Trend status
Constructive technical trend, with price above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 70
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RTX sells aircraft systems, engines, aftermarket services, missiles, air defense, sensors, radars, command systems, and secure defense electronics into long-cycle commercial and government markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed fleets, engine certification, mission-critical systems, long program cycles, defense clearances, switching costs, engineering depth, and service networks. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Chris Calio emphasized execution, backlog conversion, production capacity, and new capability investment, and Q2 2026 results and the raised outlook show the payoff of that discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $88.6 billion and free cash flow was $7.9 billion. Q2 2026 adjusted sales rose 16% organically to $24.7 billion, adjusted EPS rose 21% to $1.89, and free cash flow reached $2.9 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $215.22, verified math shows 37.89x trailing EPS, 29.19x forward EPS, 4.37x book value, 25.44x free cash flow per share, and a 1.36% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 20-day moving average near $202.43, the 50-day near $190.44, and the 200-day near $187.85, while RSI near 70.34 signals strong but extended momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because backlog is large and diversified, but engine inspection costs, tariffs, production bottlenecks, defense budget timing, leverage, and valuation sensitivity remain material. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data agree on core metrics. Forecast confidence is medium because the stock is sensitive to execution and multiple changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. RTX is a strong business, but the margin of safety is not large unless EPS and free cash flow keep compounding. | Medium |
RTX AI stock forecast
The RTX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $215.22 stock price, the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of about $7.18, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $302.60 in a bull case, $226.10 in a base case, and $156.90 in a bear case before dividends.
$285 to $315
More likely if RTX delivers the raised 2026 adjusted sales range of $95 billion to $96 billion, adjusted EPS of $7.10 to $7.25, free cash flow of $8.5 billion to $8.75 billion, continued commercial aftermarket growth, stable Pratt & Whitney remediation costs, and sustained defense backlog conversion.
$210 to $240
More likely if EPS grows at a mid to high single-digit pace, backlog remains strong, commercial aerospace demand normalizes without a margin surprise, and investors value RTX near 25x forward normalized earnings.
$145 to $170
More likely if engine inspection liabilities expand, tariffs pressure margins, defense orders slow, free cash flow misses guidance, debt reduction stalls, or the market rerates RTX toward a lower industrial multiple.
RTX AI technical analysis
RTX AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed the latest closing price at $215.22 for July 31, 2026, with a 50-day moving average near $190.44, a 200-day moving average near $187.85, RSI near 70.34, beta near 0.30, and 20-day average volume near 5.08 million shares. Barchart reported a 20-day moving average near $202.43, a 100-day near $189.91, 14-day ADX near 33.16, and 14-day historical volatility near 33.17%, supporting the same broad trend reading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $215.22 | StockAnalysis listed RTX at the July 31, 2026 close, and this page uses that price for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $202 to $204 | Barchart places the 20-day moving average near $202.43, making this the first area to monitor if momentum cools. |
| Deeper support | $188 to $191 | StockAnalysis places the 50-day average near $190.44 and Barchart the 100-day near $189.91, creating a lower moving-average support band. |
| Near resistance | $221 to $230 | A move toward the 52-week high near $221.34 needs confirmation toward the average analyst target near $229.82 and volume above the 20-day average. |
| 50-day moving average | $190.44 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both place the 50-day reference near $190.44, and current price is well above it. |
| 200-day moving average | $187.85 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both place the 200-day reference near $187.85, and current price is above it. |
| Momentum | RSI near 70.34 | Momentum is strong but near overbought territory, so new entries need confirmation instead of chasing a single strong close. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 5.1 million shares | Breakouts above resistance should be judged against average volume and continued defense and aftermarket order flow. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.30, 14-day historical volatility near 33% | RTX has low market beta, but engine, defense budget, tariff, and cash-flow headlines can still create sharp stock-specific moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $190, then below $185 | A close below the 20-day and 50-day moving-average band would weaken the trend. A break under $185 would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
RTX AI trading strategy
The RTX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q3 2026 earnings, the raised full-year outlook, free cash flow guidance, Pratt & Whitney execution, Raytheon defense demand, Collins aftermarket trends, leverage, valuation, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RTX to hold above the $202 to $204 area and then close above the $221 to $230 resistance band with volume near or above the 20-day average, while earnings confirm backlog conversion and cash-flow guidance.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $190 as a warning because the setup would lose both momentum and moving-average support.
If RTX pulls back toward $188 to $191 without a cut to sales, EPS, free cash flow, or backlog quality, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because defense and aerospace demand are strong. Require evidence that Pratt & Whitney costs and tariffs remain manageable.
Track Q3 2026 results, $289 billion backlog, Collins commercial aftermarket, Pratt & Whitney F135 and geared turbofan execution, Raytheon land and air defense demand, operating cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and updated guidance.
Lower the rating if free cash flow falls short while valuation remains above 30x trailing earnings or if new engine liabilities absorb the cash-flow upside.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RTX because aircraft, engines, avionics, missiles, radars, sensors, and air defense systems must be certified, reliable, serviceable, and mission-ready for decades.
RTX benefits from installed fleets, certified engines, defense clearances, program incumbency, service networks, switching costs, scale purchasing, and engineering knowledge that competitors cannot quickly copy.
The thesis fails if Pratt & Whitney remediation expands, fixed-price defense programs absorb margin, tariffs cut profit, supply constraints delay deliveries, or the valuation multiple falls faster than EPS grows.
Chris Calio inherited a business where execution matters more than narrative. The key management test is turning demand and a record backlog into free cash flow while reducing risk from engine inspections and leverage.
RTX sits at the intersection of commercial aerospace recovery, global defense modernization, missile replenishment, air defense, secure sensing, and aftermarket service demand. These trends are durable but capital intensive.
At 37.89x trailing EPS and 25.44x free cash flow per share, RTX is not cheap on trailing numbers. Margin of safety improves if adjusted EPS approaches the raised $7.10 to $7.25 guidance and free cash flow reaches the $8.5 billion to $8.75 billion range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTX quote reference | $215.22 latest closing price as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis RTX overview | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $290.06 billion reported market cap, with $290.55 billion calculated from $215.22 x 1.35 billion shares, a 0.17% deviation | StockAnalysis RTX statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.35 billion shares outstanding | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales | $88.6 billion, up about 10% versus prior year | StockAnalysis RTX financials and RTX 2025 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $7.9 billion, from about $10.6 billion operating cash flow less about $2.6 billion capital expenditures | StockAnalysis RTX financials and RTX 2025 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 sales and EPS | $24.7 billion adjusted sales, up 16% organically, $1.89 adjusted EPS up 21%, and $1.57 GAAP EPS from continuing operations | RTX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 free cash flow | $2.9 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, with about $150 million of powder metal related compensation | RTX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 backlog | Record $289 billion total backlog, up 22% year over year and 6% sequentially | RTX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment performance | Collins sales of $8.2 billion up 13% organically, Pratt & Whitney sales of $8.9 billion up 17% organically, Raytheon sales of $8.3 billion up 18% organically, with adjusted segment operating profit of $3.2 billion up 18% | RTX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 raised outlook | Adjusted sales raised to $95 billion to $96 billion, adjusted EPS raised to $7.10 to $7.25, free cash flow raised to $8.5 billion to $8.75 billion, and organic sales growth of 8% to 9% | RTX Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and valuation inputs | $8.31 billion cash, $38.86 billion total debt, $5.68 TTM EPS, $8.46 FCF per share, and $49.25 book value per share | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | 37.89x trailing EPS, 29.19x forward EPS, 4.37x book value, 25.44x free cash flow per share, and 1.36% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis RTX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $190.44, 200-day moving average $187.85, RSI 70.34, and 20-day average volume 5.08 million shares | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Barchart technical snapshot | 20-day moving average $202.43, 100-day moving average $189.91, 14-day ADX 33.16, and 14-day historical volatility 33.17% | Barchart RTX technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $229.82 across 23 analysts, with a low of $180 and a high of $265 | StockAnalysis RTX forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 17.07 million shares short, about 1.27% of shares outstanding, and 3.45 days to cover | StockAnalysis RTX statistics | August 1, 2026 |
This RTX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, market prices, interest rates, or company guidance change.
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