Lockheed Martin Corporation research snapshot
LMT AI stock analysis currently reads Lockheed Martin as a scaled defense technology contractor with durable positions in combat aircraft, missiles, air defense, rotary systems, naval and mission systems, and space. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, LMT traded near $535.38 with a verified market value near $123.44 billion. The bull case depends on a $186.43 billion Q1 2026 backlog, missile production agreements, 2026 free cash flow guidance, and demand for F-35, Patriot, THAAD, Aegis, and space programs. The caution is that Q1 2026 sales were flat, cash flow was negative, the balance sheet carries $20.70 billion of debt, and program execution can quickly pressure margins.
Current price
$535.38
Market cap
$123.44 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality defense prime with record backlog, strong cash outlook, and meaningful F-35 plus fixed-price program risk
Trend status
Constructive short-term technical trend, with price above the 50-day average and close to the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lockheed Martin sells combat aircraft, missiles, missile defense, naval and mission systems, helicopters, secure networks, and space systems into long-cycle government defense markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from platform incumbency, classified and regulated programs, engineering depth, certification, security clearances, installed fleets, and switching costs in mission-critical systems. | High |
| Management | Chairman, President, and CEO Jim Taiclet has led Lockheed Martin since 2020, with a strategy centered on 21st Century Security, digital production, missile scale-up, and capital returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 6% to $75.0 billion, net earnings were $5.0 billion, free cash flow was $6.9 billion, and Q1 2026 sales were flat at $18.0 billion with weaker cash timing. | High |
| Valuation | At $535.38, verified math shows about 25.96x TTM EPS, 16.44x book value, 21.80x free cash flow per share, and a 2.58% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above its 50-day moving average and near its 200-day moving average, with RSI in the mid-50s and a daily technical summary leaning strong buy. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because defense demand is strong, but LMT still faces F-35 execution, classified program losses, fixed-price cost pressure, supplier risk, debt, and budget timing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on execution, federal policy, rates, and market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. LMT has strategic assets and cash generation, but the margin of safety depends on EPS recovery and clean program execution. | Medium |
LMT AI stock forecast
The LMT AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $535.38 stock price, $20.62 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $792.60 in a bull case, $519.50 in a base case, and $263.50 in a bear case before dividends.
$760 to $810
More likely if Q2 2026 results confirm renewed sales growth, missile production agreements expand revenue and margins, F-35 delivery and upgrade economics improve, free cash flow reaches the $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion guidance range, and investors keep paying a premium defense multiple.
$500 to $540
More likely if EPS compounds at a high single-digit rate, backlog converts at normal margins, Q1 cash weakness proves timing-related, and the market values LMT around 20x earnings.
$250 to $280
More likely if fixed-price losses recur, F-35 readiness or sustainment issues worsen, budget timing delays orders, cash conversion misses guidance, or defense primes rerate toward lower industrial multiples.
LMT AI technical analysis
LMT AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. Lockheed Martin historical price data showed a $535.38 close on July 7, 2026, day range of $531.77 to $547.47, and 847,563 shares traded. StockAnalysis showed RSI near 55.06, a 50-day moving average near $520.15, a 200-day moving average near $541.14, and 20-day average volume near 1.33 million shares. Investing.com showed RSI near 55.824, a 50-day moving average near $521.98, and a 200-day moving average near $522.40.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $535.38 | Lockheed Martin historical price lookup closing quote for July 7, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $520 to $532 | This zone combines the StockAnalysis and Investing.com 50-day moving average references with the July 7 intraday low near $531.77. |
| Deeper support | $502 to $505 | The June 29 open near $502.07 and recent rebound base provide a lower support band if the 50-day area fails. |
| Near resistance | $545 to $548 | The July 6 and July 7 intraday highs near $545.91 and $547.47 define the first breakout zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $520 to $522 | Both StockAnalysis and Investing.com place the 50-day reference in this band, and price is currently above it. |
| 200-day moving average | $522 to $541 | Data providers differ on the 200-day reference, so this is better treated as a band rather than a single support point. |
| Momentum | RSI 55 to 56 | Momentum is positive but not extreme. The setup needs confirmation above the high-$540s instead of a one-day move. |
| Volume | 847,563 shares on July 7 | A breakout should be compared with the 20-day average volume near 1.33 million shares. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.11 | LMT is low beta by market statistics, but earnings, budget headlines, F-35 news, missile production, and cash-flow guidance can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $520, then below $502 | A close below the 50-day area would weaken the current rebound. A move below the June 29 base would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
LMT AI trading strategy
The LMT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026, missile production commitments, F-35 execution, backlog conversion, cash generation, debt, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Watch for LMT to close above the $545 to $548 resistance zone with volume near or above the 20-day average while Q2 results confirm sales growth, order quality, margin stability, and free cash flow guidance.
Treat a failed move above resistance followed by a close below $520 as a warning because the setup would lose support from both momentum and moving averages.
If LMT pulls back toward $520 to $532 without a cut to EPS guidance, backlog quality, or free cash flow expectations, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because defense demand is high. Require evidence that Q1 cash weakness was timing-related and that program margins are stable.
Track Q2 2026 earnings, backlog near $186.43 billion, Aeronautics margin, Missiles and Fire Control growth, PAC-3, THAAD, PrSM, F-35 deliveries, Space growth, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, debt, buybacks, and dividend policy.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while LMT trades above a low-20s earnings multiple or if new program charges reduce confidence in 2026 cash guidance.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Lockheed Martin because national security missions require stealth aircraft, missile defense, precision fires, secure command systems, helicopters, space assets, and sustainment that must meet strict performance and security standards.
LMT benefits from F-35 scale, classified program knowledge, installed fleets, defense clearances, systems integration, certified manufacturing, customer trust, and long program cycles. The moat is strongest where performance history and regulatory approval matter.
The thesis fails if F-35 economics deteriorate, classified or fixed-price program losses recur, missile scale-up costs exceed expectations, working capital consumes cash, or budget and export approvals delay orders.
Jim Taiclet has defense, aerospace, telecom infrastructure, and military experience. The management test is converting demand into cash while investing in production capacity and avoiding another cycle of program charges.
LMT sits in long-duration defense trends: air superiority, integrated air and missile defense, munitions replenishment, space security, hypersonics, command systems, allied modernization, and resilient supply chains. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At about 25.96x TTM EPS and 21.80x free cash flow per share, LMT is not priced as a distressed contractor. Margin of safety improves if EPS moves toward 2026 guidance, cash flow normalizes, or price resets closer to the base-case range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT quote reference | $535.38 closing price as of July 7, 2026, with day range of $531.77 to $547.47 | Lockheed Martin historical price lookup | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $123.44 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $535.38 x 230.56 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis LMT statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 230.56 million shares outstanding, cross-validated against CompaniesMarketCap and Macrotrends share-count references | StockAnalysis LMT statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net earnings | $75.048 billion sales and $5.0 billion net earnings, cross-validated against Macrotrends and third-party summaries | Lockheed Martin FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow and backlog | $8.6 billion cash from operations, $6.9 billion free cash flow, and $194 billion year-end backlog | Lockheed Martin FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, EPS, and cash flow | $18.021 billion sales, $1.488 billion net earnings, $6.44 diluted EPS, $220 million operating cash flow, and negative $291 million free cash flow | Lockheed Martin Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment sales | Aeronautics $6.953B, Missiles and Fire Control $3.649B, Rotary and Mission Systems $3.991B, and Space $3.428B | Lockheed Martin Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog | $186.427 billion total backlog, including Aeronautics $55.032B, MFC $46.565B, RMS $45.840B, and Space $38.990B | Lockheed Martin Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $1.89 billion cash and equivalents, $20.70 billion total debt, and negative $18.80 billion net cash | StockAnalysis LMT statistics and Trading Economics | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $75.11B revenue, $4.79B net income, $20.62 EPS, $24.56 FCF per share, $32.56 book value per share, and $13.80 dividend per share | StockAnalysis LMT statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend | RSI 55 to 56, 50-day MA $520 to $522, 200-day MA $522 to $541, and July 7 range $531.77 to $547.47 | StockAnalysis, Investing.com, and Lockheed Martin price lookup | July 8, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | The U.S. Government accounted for 72% of 2025 sales, including 63% from the Department of War | Lockheed Martin 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO and management context | Jim Taiclet is Chairman, President, and CEO; he became President and CEO in June 2020 and Chairman in March 2021 | Council on Foreign Relations biography | July 8, 2026 |
This LMT AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the stated cutoff date, use simplified assumptions, and can be wrong if business, market, policy, or valuation conditions change.
