Lockheed Martin Corporation research snapshot
LMT AI stock analysis currently reads Lockheed Martin as a scaled defense technology contractor with durable positions in combat aircraft, missiles, air defense, rotary systems, naval and mission systems, and space. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LMT traded near $582.74 with a verified market value near $134.49 billion. The bull case strengthened after the July 23, 2026 Q2 report: sales rose 11% to $20.1 billion, diluted EPS reached $7.94, free cash flow hit $2.9 billion, and backlog reached a record $230 billion. Lockheed also raised its 2026 guidance and secured the largest-ever Patriot missile award, worth up to $58.62 billion, on July 29, 2026. The caution is that the stock now trades near 21.5x trailing earnings, the balance sheet carries $20.54 billion of debt, and the massive munitions production ramps still carry execution and funding risk.
Current price
$582.74
Market cap
$134.49 billion verified market cap
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality defense technology leader with record backlog, raised guidance, and strong cash generation, balanced against an elevated valuation and large munitions ramp execution risk
Trend status
Bullish short-term technical trend, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a 10.5% post-earnings jump
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lockheed Martin sells combat aircraft, missiles, missile defense, naval and mission systems, helicopters, secure networks, and space systems into long-cycle government defense markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from platform incumbency, classified and regulated programs, engineering depth, certification, security clearances, installed fleets, and switching costs in mission-critical systems. | High |
| Management | Chairman, President, and CEO Jim Taiclet has led Lockheed Martin since 2020, with a strategy centered on 21st Century Security, digital production, missile scale-up, and capital returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 sales rose 11% to $20.1 billion, EPS was $7.94, free cash flow was $2.9 billion, and backlog reached a record $230 billion. Lockheed raised 2026 guidance on sales, segment profit, EPS, and free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $582.74, verified math shows about 21.47x TTM EPS, 15.29x book value, 15.41x free cash flow per share, and a 2.37% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above its 50-day moving average near $528.69 and its 200-day moving average near $545.09, with RSI near 67.65 and a sharp post-earnings breakout in late July. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Demand is strong and guidance is rising, but LMT still faces munitions ramp execution, classified program cost risk, F-35 lot timing, budget dependency, leverage, and a valuation that is no longer cheap. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because current coverage is unusually deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on production ramp execution, federal policy, rates, and market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. LMT has strategic assets and rising cash generation, but the margin of safety is thinner after the recent re-rating and depends on delivering the raised guidance. | Medium |
LMT AI stock forecast
The LMT AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $582.74 stock price, $27.14 trailing EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $817 in a bull case, $632 in a base case, and $407 in a bear case before dividends.
$790 to $840
More likely if munitions production ramps convert the $58.62 billion PAC-3 award and $35 billion THAAD contract into accelerating revenue, all segments grow faster in the back half of 2026, free cash flow lands above $7 billion, and investors keep a premium defense multiple near 22x earnings.
$610 to $650
More likely if EPS compounds at a high single-digit rate, record backlog converts at normal margins, cash generation normalizes around the raised $7.0 to $7.2 billion guidance, and the market values LMT around 19x forward earnings.
$380 to $430
More likely if munitions ramp-up costs exceed expectations, classified or fixed-price losses recur, budget delays delay F-35 lot awards, the Vulcan anomaly or other programs pressure profit, or defense primes rerate toward a mid-teens multiple.
LMT AI technical analysis
LMT AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Lockheed Martin historical price data showed a $582.74 close on July 31, 2026, a day range of $570.89 to $583.89, and a 10.5% post-earnings jump to $568.59 on July 23. StockAnalysis showed RSI near 67.65, a 50-day moving average near $528.69, a 200-day moving average near $545.09, and 20-day average volume near 1.19 million shares. Price is above both moving averages after breaking through prior resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $582.74 | Lockheed Martin historical price lookup closing quote for July 31, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $568 to $576 | This zone combines the July 23 earnings close near $568.59 with the July 30 and July 31 lows, and acts as the first pullback support after the breakout. |
| Deeper support | $545 to $556 | The July 23 intraday low near $545 and the 200-day moving average near $545.09 define the key gap area. Holding it keeps the new uptrend intact. |
| Near resistance | $584 to $594 | The July 31 intraday high near $583.89 and the July 28 high near $593.77 define the first breakout zone toward the 52-week high. |
| 50-day moving average | $528.69 | The 50-day reference is well below price, confirming a strong short-term trend, but a return to it would be a meaningful pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | $545.09 | Price is above the 200-day reference. A close back below it would shift the trend from bullish to neutral. |
| Momentum | RSI near 67.65 | Momentum is strong and constructive but approaching overbought. A healthy setup would consolidate before challenging the $584 to $594 zone. |
| Volume | 3.26M shares on July 23 | Earnings day volume was nearly three times the 20-day average near 1.19 million shares, confirming institutional participation in the breakout. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.11 | LMT is low beta by market statistics, but earnings, budget headlines, PAC-3 and THAAD news, and cash-flow guidance can still move the stock sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $545, then below $528 | A close below the $545 gap and 200-day area would undermine the breakout. A move below the 50-day near $528.69 would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
LMT AI trading strategy
The LMT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with the Q2 2026 earnings beat, raised 2026 guidance, PAC-3 and THAAD production commitments, F-35 lot timing, backlog conversion, cash generation, debt, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Watch for LMT to hold above the $545 to $556 support zone and confirm a breakout above the $584 to $594 resistance area with volume near or above the 20-day average while 2026 guidance, F-35 deliveries, and PAC-3 and THAAD ramp news stay supportive.
Treat a close below $545 as a warning because the setup would lose the earnings gap and the 200-day moving average. A close below $528.69 would signal the trend has broken.
If LMT pulls back toward the $556 to $576 zone without a cut to 2026 EPS or free cash flow guidance, compare the reset price with the base scenario, the 2.37% dividend yield, and the analyst price target near $628.
Do not average down only because defense demand is high. Require evidence that munitions ramps are converting into margin and that the raised free cash flow target of $7.0 to $7.2 billion remains intact.
Track Q3 2026 earnings, backlog near $230 billion, PAC-3 and THAAD conversion, Aeronautics and MFC margins, F-35 lot awards, Space profit, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, the Ultra Maritime acquisition, debt, buybacks, and dividend policy.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while LMT trades near 21x trailing earnings, if munitions ramp costs pressure MFC margins below the mid-teens, or if new program charges reduce confidence in 2026 cash guidance.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Lockheed Martin because national security missions require stealth aircraft, missile defense, precision fires, secure command systems, helicopters, space assets, and sustainment that must meet strict performance and security standards.
LMT benefits from F-35 scale, classified program knowledge, installed fleets, defense clearances, systems integration, certified manufacturing, customer trust, and long program cycles. The moat is strongest where performance history and regulatory approval matter.
The thesis fails if munitions ramp-up costs exceed the $8 to $9 billion investment plan, classified or fixed-price program losses recur, F-35 lot timing slips, working capital consumes cash, or budget and export approvals delay orders.
Jim Taiclet has defense, aerospace, telecom infrastructure, and military experience. The management test is converting the record backlog into cash while scaling production capacity and avoiding another cycle of program charges.
LMT sits in long-duration defense trends: air superiority, integrated air and missile defense, munitions replenishment, space security, hypersonics, command systems, allied modernization, and resilient supply chains. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At about 21.47x TTM EPS and 15.41x free cash flow per share, LMT is priced for continued execution rather than distress. Margin of safety improves if the raised EPS and free cash flow guidance are delivered or if the price resets closer to the base-case range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT quote reference | $582.74 closing price as of July 31, 2026, with day range of $570.89 to $583.89 | Lockheed Martin historical price lookup | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $134.49 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $582.74 x 230.79 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis LMT statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 230.79 million shares outstanding, down 1.97% year over year on buybacks | StockAnalysis LMT statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 sales, earnings, and EPS | $20.063 billion sales, $1.836 billion net earnings, and $7.94 diluted EPS, up from $342 million and $1.46 per share a year earlier | Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and backlog | $3.235 billion cash from operations, $2.917 billion free cash flow, $65 billion of new orders, and a record $230 billion backlog with a 3.2x book-to-bill ratio | Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment sales | Aeronautics $8.112B, Missiles and Fire Control $4.101B (up 19%), Rotary and Mission Systems $4.354B, and Space $3.496B | Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Raised 2026 guidance | Sales $79.75B to $81.75B, segment operating profit $8.5B to $8.7B, EPS $29.95 to $30.65, and free cash flow $7.0B to $7.2B | Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 results and earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| PAC-3 MSE contract | $58.62 billion total multiyear PAC-3 MSE production award, including a $53.86 billion modification announced July 29, 2026, the largest-ever Patriot missile deal | Lockheed Martin PAC-3 award release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash and debt | $3.79 billion cash and investments, $20.54 billion total debt, and negative $16.75 billion net cash | StockAnalysis LMT statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $77.01B revenue, $6.29B net income, $27.14 EPS, $37.82 FCF per share, $38.12 book value per share, and $13.80 dividend per share | StockAnalysis LMT statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical trend | RSI 67.65, 50-day MA $528.69, 200-day MA $545.09, 20-day average volume 1.19 million shares, and July 23 earnings-day volume of 3.26 million shares | StockAnalysis LMT statistics and historical price | August 2, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | The U.S. Government accounted for 72% of 2025 sales, including 63% from the Department of Defense | Lockheed Martin 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO and management context | Jim Taiclet is Chairman, President, and CEO; he became President and CEO in June 2020 and Chairman in March 2021 | Council on Foreign Relations biography | August 2, 2026 |
This LMT AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the stated cutoff date, use simplified assumptions, and can be wrong if business, market, policy, or valuation conditions change.
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