Regal Rexnord Corporation research snapshot
RRX AI stock analysis currently reads Regal Rexnord Corporation as a scaled industrial motion company built around Automation and Motion Control, Industrial Powertrain Solutions, and Power Efficiency Solutions. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, RRX traded near $214.90 with Yahoo Finance reporting a $14.31 billion market cap and 66.57 million shares outstanding. Pineify financial_rigor.py verifies market cap at $14.31 billion from price and shares (0.03% variance). The bull case rests on FY2025 sales near $5.94 billion, FY2025 net income near $280 million, FY2025 adjusted free cash flow of $893.1 million, Q1 2026 sales growth of 4.3%, backlog and order improvement, debt paydown, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.20 to $11.00. The caution is that trailing GAAP PE is about 50x, net debt remains large at roughly $4.46 billion, organic growth is still modest, and a CEO transition is underway, so the stock needs clean adjusted earnings conversion and continued leverage reduction.
Current price
$214.90
Market cap
$14.31 billion reported market cap, $14.31 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Post-merger industrial powertrain and motion compounder with improving free cash flow, still-elevated leverage, and a valuation that already prices in adjusted EPS conversion
Trend status
Constructive intermediate trend, with price above the 200-day moving average and near the 50-day average after a large 52-week recovery
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Regal Rexnord sells electric motors, air-moving products, power transmission components, industrial powertrains, automation controls, actuators, drives, and precision motion systems into factory, energy, data center, HVAC, and general industrial markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate: engineering depth, installed base and aftermarket service, distribution reach, scale manufacturing, and switching costs in critical motion applications, but competitors remain capable across motors, power transmission, and automation. | Medium |
| Management | The board appointed Aamir Paul, formerly Schneider Electric President of North America, as CEO no later than July 1, 2026. Capital allocation priority remains debt reduction, margin improvement, and free cash flow after the Rexnord and Altra integrations. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $5.935 billion with net income about $280 million. Q1 2026 sales rose 4.3% to $1.479 billion, GAAP net income rose to $64.3 million, and FY2025 adjusted free cash flow reached $893.1 million after large debt paydown. | High |
| Valuation | At $214.90, verified math shows 49.98x TTM GAAP EPS, 2.10x book value, about 18.2x levered free cash flow per share, 5.5% FCF yield, and a 0.65% dividend yield. Forward PE near 20x on adjusted EPS guidance looks less extreme than trailing GAAP PE. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is near the 50-day moving average around $212.12 and well above the 200-day moving average around $178.84, inside a 52-week range of $127.96 to $247.80. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated because leverage, industrial demand swings, integration residue, CEO transition, tariffs, and multiple compression can all move the equity hard even if the franchise is durable. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party sources agree on core metrics. Forecast confidence is medium because adjusted-to-GAAP conversion and leverage reduction drive the stock more than top-line growth alone. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low to medium at this price. RRX is a real industrial platform, but margin of safety is thin unless adjusted EPS and free cash flow keep converting while debt falls. | Medium-low |
RRX AI stock forecast
The RRX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, a $214.90 stock price, $4.30 TTM GAAP EPS, and management adjusted EPS guidance near $10.20 to $11.00, a three-year adjusted-earnings framework tested about $310 in a bull case, $227 in a base case, and $127 in a bear case before dividends. Pure GAAP trailing EPS growth scenarios look weaker because amortization and integration noise still compress reported earnings.
$280 to $320
More likely if RRX delivers 2026 adjusted EPS near the $10.20 to $11.00 guidance band, organic growth improves from low single digits, Automation and Motion Control keeps outgrowing the company average, free cash flow funds leverage toward the low-2x zone, and investors re-rate the stock toward a low-20s adjusted earnings multiple.
$205 to $235
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds at a mid single-digit pace after 2026, industrial demand stays uneven, debt continues to fall gradually, and investors keep RRX near a high-teens to low-20s adjusted earnings multiple with limited multiple expansion.
$120 to $145
More likely if industrial capital spending slows, organic growth stalls, free cash flow misses, leverage stays elevated, CEO transition disrupts execution, tariffs pressure margins, or the market rerates RRX toward a low-teens multiple on flattened earnings.
RRX AI technical analysis
RRX AI technical analysis is constructive on the intermediate trend but mixed near-term as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed RRX at $214.90 on July 10, 2026, a 50-day moving average near $212.12, a 200-day moving average near $178.84, a 52-week range of $127.96 to $247.80, beta near 1.07, and average volume near 1.15 million shares. Price sits just above the 50-day average after a large recovery from the 2025 lows, so failed holds around the 50-day band matter more than distant support.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $214.90 | Yahoo Finance listed the July 10, 2026 close at $214.90, and this page uses that price for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $208 to $212 | The 50-day moving average near $212.12 and recent pullback structure make this the first zone to monitor if momentum cools. |
| Deeper support | $175 to $185 | The 200-day moving average near $178.84 is the cleaner intermediate trend support if industrial sentiment weakens. |
| Near resistance | $220 to $248 | A move through the recent quote zone needs confirmation toward the 52-week high near $247.80 with volume near or above the average baseline. |
| 50-day moving average | $212.12 | Current price is only slightly above this average, so it is both near-term support and a momentum tell. |
| 200-day moving average | $178.84 | Price remains well above the 200-day average, which supports a constructive intermediate trend read. |
| Momentum | Recovered trend, not oversold | The stock has already rebounded hard from the 52-week low near $127.96, so chase entries need fresh volume and fundamental confirmation rather than late momentum alone. |
| Volume | 3-month average near 1.15 million shares | Breakouts above resistance should be judged against average volume and reactions to leverage, orders, and earnings updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.07 | RRX trades with roughly market-like beta, but leverage headlines, industrial data, and CEO transition news can still create stock-specific spikes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $208, then below $179 | A close below the 50-day band would weaken the near-term setup. A break under the 200-day average would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
RRX AI trading strategy
The RRX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings, adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, net leverage, order and backlog trends, Automation and Motion Control growth, CEO transition execution, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RRX to hold above the $208 to $212 support band and then close above the $220 to $248 resistance area with volume near or above the 3-month average, while earnings confirm adjusted EPS progress and debt reduction.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $208 as a warning because the setup would lose both momentum and 50-day support.
If RRX pulls back toward $175 to $185 without a cut to adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, or order commentary, compare the reset price with the base scenario and free cash flow yield.
Do not average down only because the company has industrial scale. Require evidence that leverage, organic growth, and cash conversion remain on track.
Track Q2 2026 results, daily orders, backlog, AMC versus IPS and PES growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, interest expense, buybacks, dividends, and management commentary under CEO Aamir Paul.
Lower the rating if free cash flow stalls while net leverage stays near or above 3x, or if GAAP and adjusted earnings diverge in a way that suggests cash conversion is weaker than the story.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Regal Rexnord because factories, buildings, energy systems, and automated equipment need reliable motors, power transmission, air movement, controls, and motion systems that keep machines running with acceptable efficiency and uptime.
RRX benefits from engineering know-how, installed base aftermarket demand, channel relationships, manufacturing scale, and product breadth across powertrain and automation. The moat is real but competitive, not a pure monopoly franchise.
The thesis fails if leverage stays high while industrial demand softens, free cash flow disappoints, integration benefits fade, the CEO transition slows execution, or the valuation multiple compresses faster than adjusted EPS grows.
Aamir Paul joins from Schneider Electric with large-scale North America operating experience. The near-term management test is converting the merged platform into lower leverage, cleaner cash flow, and steadier organic growth without overpaying for expansion.
RRX sits in long-cycle industrial demand linked to factory automation, energy efficiency, data center and discrete automation exposure, HVAC and air movement, and replacement powertrain parts. The trend is constructive, but it is still cyclical capital-goods demand.
At 49.98x TTM GAAP EPS, trailing reported earnings leave little margin of safety. The setup improves if investors correctly underwrite adjusted EPS near guidance and free cash flow keeps retiring debt. Margin of safety is better judged on cash earnings and leverage path than on GAAP PE alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRX quote and market capitalization | $214.90 July 10, 2026 close, $14.31 billion market cap, and 66.57 million shares outstanding. Pineify financial_rigor.py calculates $14.31 billion market cap from price and shares (0.03% variance). | Yahoo Finance RRX key statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM revenue | FY2025 revenue $5.935 billion; TTM revenue about $6.0 billion through March 31, 2026. Macrotrends and Yahoo Finance agree within a narrow band. | Macrotrends RRX revenue and Yahoo Finance financial highlights | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM net income and EPS | FY2025 net income about $280 million; TTM net income about $286.5 million; diluted TTM EPS $4.30. Cross-checks between Macrotrends, Yahoo Finance, and Simply Wall St stayed within 1%. | Macrotrends RRX net income, Yahoo Finance key statistics, Simply Wall St | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | Net sales $1,479.1 million, up 4.3% year over year and up 1.6% organic; GAAP net income $64.3 million; diluted EPS $0.96; adjusted diluted EPS $2.17; company reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. | Regal Rexnord Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash flow, cash, and debt | TTM operating cash flow $903.4 million; levered free cash flow about $787.2 million; cash $401 million; total debt $4.86 billion; FY2025 adjusted free cash flow $893.1 million after $709.4 million gross debt paydown and about 3.1x net debt to adjusted EBITDA at year-end 2025. | Yahoo Finance key statistics and Regal Rexnord FY2025 results commentary | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation inputs | Verified PE 49.98x on $4.30 TTM EPS, PB 2.10x on $102.19 book value per share, P/FCF about 18.2x on $11.83 levered FCF per share, FCF yield 5.5%, dividend $1.40 for about 0.65% yield, forward PE near 20x, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance $10.20 to $11.00. | Yahoo Finance key statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average $212.12, 200-day moving average $178.84, 52-week range $127.96 to $247.80, beta 1.07, and 3-month average volume about 1.15 million shares. | Yahoo Finance RRX key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Business model and leadership | Three operating segments: Automation and Motion Control, Industrial Powertrain Solutions, and Power Efficiency Solutions. Board appointed Aamir Paul as CEO commencing no later than July 1, 2026. | Regal Rexnord investor materials and CEO appointment release | July 12, 2026 |
This RRX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if industrial demand, leverage, free cash flow, integration outcomes, CEO transition execution, tariffs, market sentiment, or company fundamentals change.
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