Regal Rexnord Corporation research snapshot
RRX AI stock analysis currently reads Regal Rexnord Corporation as a scaled industrial motion company built around Automation and Motion Control, Industrial Powertrain Solutions, and Power Efficiency Solutions. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, RRX closed at $205.23 on July 31, 2026, with a $13.66 billion market cap and 66.57 million shares outstanding. Pineify financial_rigor.py verifies market cap at $13.66 billion from price and shares (0.02% variance). The bull case rests on Q1 2026 sales of $1,479.1 million up 4.3% year over year, daily orders up 8.5%, backlog up 6.7% sequentially, AMC orders up over 34%, FY2025 net income near $280 million, TTM operating cash flow of $903.4 million, TTM free cash flow near $805 million, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.20 to $11.00. The caution is that trailing GAAP PE is about 47.7x on $4.30 TTM EPS, net debt remains large at roughly $4.31 billion, the Power Efficiency segment is still shrinking with residential HVAC weakness, and a new CEO has just taken over, so the stock needs clean adjusted earnings conversion and continued leverage reduction.
Current price
$205.23
Market cap
$13.66 billion market cap, verified at $13.66 billion from price and shares
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Industrial motion and powertrain platform with improving order momentum and free cash flow, still-elevated leverage, and a valuation that screens expensive on trailing GAAP earnings but less extreme on adjusted EPS guidance
Trend status
Constructive intermediate trend with price above the 200-day moving average, but below the 50-day moving average after a pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Regal Rexnord sells electric motors, air-moving products, power transmission components, industrial powertrains, automation controls, actuators, drives, and precision motion systems into factory, data center, HVAC, aerospace, food and beverage, and general industrial markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate: engineering depth, installed base and aftermarket service, distribution reach, scale manufacturing, and switching costs in critical motion applications, but competitors remain capable across motors, power transmission, and automation. | Medium |
| Management | Aamir Paul, formerly Schneider Electric President of North America, became CEO effective no later than July 1, 2026, succeeding Louis Pinkham. Capital allocation priority remains debt reduction, margin improvement, and free cash flow after the Rexnord and Altra integrations. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $5.935 billion with net income about $280 million. Q1 2026 sales rose 4.3% to $1,479.1 million, GAAP net income rose to $64.3 million, adjusted diluted EPS was $2.17, and TTM free cash flow reached about $805 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $205.23, verified math shows 47.73x TTM GAAP EPS, 2.01x book value, about 16.98x free cash flow per share, 5.89% FCF yield, and a 0.68% dividend yield. Forward PE near 18x on 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.20 to $11.00 looks less extreme than trailing GAAP PE. | High |
| Technical trend | Price closed at $205.23 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $212.06 and above the 200-day moving average near $183.67, inside a 52-week range of $127.96 to $247.80 with RSI near 47. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated because leverage, industrial demand swings, residential HVAC weakness, integration residue, CEO transition, tariffs, and multiple compression can all move the equity hard even if the franchise is durable. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party sources agree on core metrics. Forecast confidence is medium because adjusted-to-GAAP conversion, data center capex timing, and leverage reduction drive the stock more than top-line growth alone. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low to medium at this price. RRX is a real industrial platform, but margin of safety is thin unless adjusted EPS and free cash flow keep converting while debt falls. | Medium-low |
RRX AI stock forecast
The RRX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 3, 2026 research cutoff, a $205.23 stock price, $4.30 TTM GAAP EPS, and management adjusted EPS guidance near $10.20 to $11.00, a three-year adjusted-earnings framework tested about $300 to $330 in a bull case, $215 to $245 in a base case, and $135 to $160 in a bear case before dividends. Pure GAAP trailing EPS growth scenarios look weaker because amortization and integration noise still compress reported earnings.
$300 to $330
More likely if RRX delivers 2026 adjusted EPS near the $10.20 to $11.00 guidance band, AMC keeps compounding with data center and discrete automation demand, daily orders and backlog stay strong, free cash flow funds leverage below 3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, and investors re-rate the stock toward a low-20s adjusted earnings multiple.
$215 to $245
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds at a mid single-digit pace after 2026, industrial demand stays uneven, residential HVAC normalization is slow, debt continues to fall gradually, and investors keep RRX near a mid-teens to low-20s adjusted earnings multiple with limited multiple expansion.
$135 to $160
More likely if data center capex slows, organic growth stalls, free cash flow misses, leverage stays elevated, CEO transition disrupts execution, tariffs pressure margins, or the market rerates RRX toward a low-teens multiple on flattened earnings.
RRX AI technical analysis
RRX AI technical analysis is constructive on the intermediate trend but mixed near-term as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed RRX closing at $205.23 on July 31, 2026, a 50-day moving average near $212.06, a 200-day moving average near $183.67, RSI near 47, a 52-week range of $127.96 to $247.80, beta near 1.07, and average volume near 950,000 shares. Price sits below the 50-day average after a pullback from the 52-week high, so holds around the 200-day average and the round $200 level matter more than distant support.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $205.23 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $205.23, and this page uses that price for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $198 to $205 | The round $200 level and the recent pullback low near $195 form the first zone to monitor if momentum cools further. |
| Deeper support | $180 to $185 | The 200-day moving average near $183.67 is the cleaner intermediate trend support if industrial sentiment weakens. |
| Near resistance | $212 to $225 | The 50-day moving average near $212.06 is the first obstacle; a reclaim with volume would improve the near-term picture. |
| 50-day moving average | $212.06 | Current price is below this average, so it is both near-term resistance and a momentum tell. |
| 200-day moving average | $183.67 | Price remains well above the 200-day average, which supports a constructive intermediate trend read. |
| Momentum | Pulled back, not oversold | RSI near 47 is neutral after a decline from the 52-week high near $247.80, so entries need fresh volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 950,000 shares | Breakouts above resistance should be judged against average volume and reactions to leverage, orders, and earnings updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.07 | RRX trades with roughly market-like beta, but leverage headlines, industrial data, data center capex news, and CEO transition news can still create stock-specific spikes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $198, then below $180 | A close below the $198 to $200 band would weaken the near-term setup. A break under the 200-day average near $183.67 would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
RRX AI trading strategy
The RRX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, net leverage, order and backlog trends, AMC data center growth, CEO transition execution, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RRX to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $212 and then close above the $220 to $225 area with volume near or above the 950,000 share average, while earnings confirm adjusted EPS progress and debt reduction.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a close below $198 as a warning because the setup would lose momentum and put the 200-day average under pressure.
If RRX pulls back toward $180 to $185 without a cut to adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, or order commentary, compare the reset price with the base scenario and free cash flow yield.
Do not average down only because the company has industrial scale. Require evidence that leverage, organic growth, and cash conversion remain on track.
Track Q2 2026 results due August 5, 2026, daily orders, backlog, AMC versus IPS and PES growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, interest expense, buybacks, dividends, and management commentary under CEO Aamir Paul.
Lower the rating if free cash flow stalls while net leverage stays near or above 3x, or if GAAP and adjusted earnings diverge in a way that suggests cash conversion is weaker than the story.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Regal Rexnord because factories, buildings, data centers, and automated equipment need reliable motors, power transmission, air movement, controls, and motion systems that keep machines running with acceptable efficiency and uptime.
RRX benefits from engineering know-how, installed base aftermarket demand, channel relationships, manufacturing scale, and product breadth across powertrain and automation. The moat is real but competitive, not a pure monopoly franchise.
The thesis fails if leverage stays high while industrial demand or data center capex softens, free cash flow disappoints, integration benefits fade, the CEO transition slows execution, or the valuation multiple compresses faster than adjusted EPS grows.
Aamir Paul joins from Schneider Electric with large-scale North America operating experience. The near-term management test is converting the merged platform into lower leverage, cleaner cash flow, and steadier organic growth without overpaying for expansion.
RRX sits in long-cycle industrial demand linked to factory automation, data center buildout, energy efficiency, commercial HVAC, aerospace, and replacement powertrain parts. The trend is constructive, but residential HVAC and discrete capex remain cyclical.
At 47.73x TTM GAAP EPS, trailing reported earnings leave little margin of safety. The setup improves if investors correctly underwrite adjusted EPS near guidance and free cash flow keeps retiring debt. Margin of safety is better judged on cash earnings and leverage path than on GAAP PE alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRX quote and market capitalization | $205.23 July 31, 2026 close, $13.66 billion market cap, and 66.57 million shares outstanding. Pineify financial_rigor.py calculates $13.66 billion market cap from price and shares (0.02% variance). | StockAnalysis RRX statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM revenue | FY2025 revenue $5.935 billion; TTM revenue about $5.996 billion through March 31, 2026. Macrotrends and StockAnalysis agree within a narrow band. | Macrotrends RRX revenue and StockAnalysis RRX financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM net income and EPS | FY2025 net income about $280 million; TTM net income about $286.5 million; diluted TTM EPS $4.30. Cross-checks between Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo Finance stayed within a narrow band. | Macrotrends RRX net income, StockAnalysis RRX financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | Net sales $1,479.1 million, up 4.3% year over year and up 1.6% organic; GAAP net income $64.3 million; diluted EPS $0.96; adjusted diluted EPS $2.17; adjusted EBITDA $304.4 million; company reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.20 to $11.00. | Regal Rexnord Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow, cash, and debt | TTM operating cash flow $903.4 million; TTM free cash flow about $805.1 million; cash $401 million; total debt about $4.86 billion; net debt about $4.31 billion at March 31, 2026; net debt to adjusted EBITDA about 3.31x. | StockAnalysis RRX statistics and Regal Rexnord Q1 2026 results commentary | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation inputs | Verified PE 47.73x on $4.30 TTM EPS, PB 2.01x on $102.19 book value per share, P/FCF about 16.98x on $12.09 free cash flow per share, FCF yield 5.89%, dividend $1.40 for about 0.68% yield, forward PE near 18x, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance $10.20 to $11.00. | StockAnalysis RRX statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average $212.06, 200-day moving average $183.67, 52-week range $127.96 to $247.80, RSI near 47, beta 1.07, and 20-day average volume about 950,000 shares. | StockAnalysis RRX statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Business model and leadership | Three operating segments: Automation and Motion Control, Industrial Powertrain Solutions, and Power Efficiency Solutions. Board appointed Aamir Paul as CEO commencing no later than July 1, 2026; next earnings release is August 5, 2026. | Regal Rexnord CEO appointment release and Q1 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
This RRX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if industrial demand, data center capex, residential HVAC, leverage, free cash flow, integration outcomes, CEO transition execution, tariffs, market sentiment, or company fundamentals change.
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