Bullish case
Around $122.70 in 3 years
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 9%, the market keeps a premium industrial multiple near 27x, organic orders improve, and M&A adds growth without margin dilution.
Ingersoll Rand Inc. research snapshot
IR AI Stock Analysis
IR AI stock analysis reads Ingersoll Rand Inc. as a high-quality industrial flow creation and life sciences platform with durable aftermarket exposure, strong free cash flow, and active acquisition discipline. The current setup is not a simple buy signal because the stock closed at $78.71 on July 7, 2026, with a market capitalization near $30.80 billion, while GAAP P/E remains high and organic growth guidance is modest. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$78.71 close on July 7, 2026
Market cap
$30.80 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Quality industrial compounder, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Range-bound after a July pullback
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. IR has long public-company disclosure, SEC filings, company releases, analyst coverage, and multiple quote data sources.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting the market consensus that IR is a durable industrial compounder. The counter-check is whether valuation, tariffs, M&A integration, and organic demand already leave little margin of safety.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Business quality is easier to evaluate than future return because returns depend on organic growth, acquisition execution, margins, and the entry multiple.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | IR sells mission-critical compressors, pumps, vacuum, blower, power tool, lifting, and life sciences products with service and aftermarket demand. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from installed base, application know-how, broad brands, service relationships, and operating discipline rather than a single patent wall. | Medium-high |
| Management | Vicente Reynal has led the Gardner Denver IPO path and the 2020 Ingersoll Rand Industrial Segment transaction, with capital allocation focused on IRX, M&A, repurchases, and dividends. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 6% to $7.651 billion, free cash flow was $1.220 billion, and Q1 2026 revenue rose to $1.847 billion, but Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 25.4%. | High |
| Valuation | At $78.71, the tool-verified TTM P/E is about 53.2x and P/FCF is about 15.3x, so the stock needs either adjusted EPS growth or multiple support. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock closed near the lower half of its 52-week range and below the February 2026 high, with short-term resistance near the July day range high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are industrial cycle weakness, tariff and input cost pressure, acquisition integration, debt load, goodwill impairment, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for historical financials and quote math. Medium confidence for technical levels that need live chart confirmation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because the business is strong but the expected return depends heavily on price paid and 2026 execution. | Medium |
IR AI stock forecast
IR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The IR AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model based on 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $3.51 and the July 7, 2026 close of $78.71. These are planning ranges, not promised price targets.
Base case
Around $93.50 in 3 years
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 5%, the market values IR near 23x adjusted earnings, and 2026 guidance is met without a deeper industrial slowdown.
Bearish case
Around $63.20 in 3 years
More likely if adjusted EPS stalls, the market applies an 18x multiple, tariffs or input costs pressure margins, or acquisition returns disappoint.
IR AI technical analysis
IR AI Technical Analysis
IR AI technical analysis starts from the July 7, 2026 delayed quote. MarketWatch showed a $78.71 close, $77.38 to $80.17 day range, $68.07 to $100.96 52-week range, and volume of 3.42 million shares versus a 3.98 million average. Moving averages require live chart confirmation because this static page does not fetch request-time market data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current close | $78.71 | Closing quote from July 7, 2026. After-hours indications can change before the next session. |
| Near support | $77.38 | The July 7 day low is the first short-term support reference after the pullback. |
| Major support | $68.07 | The 52-week low marks the larger downside reference if the current range breaks. |
| Near resistance | $80.17 | The July 7 day high is the first short-term resistance level to reclaim. |
| Major resistance | $100.96 | The 52-week high from February 13, 2026 is the larger upside reference. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use a current chart before acting because this page is static. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use it to distinguish a short-term rebound from a durable trend repair. |
| Momentum | Mixed short-term momentum | Five-day performance was negative while one-month performance was positive in the MarketWatch snapshot. |
| Volume | 3.42M vs 3.98M average | Volume was below average, so any breakout or breakdown needs confirmation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $77.38, then $68.07 | A close below near support weakens the setup. A break of the 52-week low would reset the risk framework. |
IR AI trading strategy
IR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The IR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring an industrial compounder. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with portfolio limits, stop rules, and fresh earnings checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for IR to reclaim the $80.17 near-resistance area with improving volume, then check whether the move is supported by orders, margins, and guidance.
Invalidate the setup if the stock fails the breakout and closes back below the $77.38 support reference.
Mean-reversion setup
If IR retests the lower range, compare price weakness with business evidence: backlog, organic growth, Q2 earnings, cash conversion, and tariff commentary.
Do not average down if margin pressure, leverage, or acquisition integration risk is worsening at the same time.
Fundamental monitor
Track 2026 revenue growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.5%, adjusted EBITDA of $2.130 billion to $2.190 billion, adjusted EPS of $3.45 to $3.57, and free cash flow conversion.
Reduce confidence if organic growth stays weak while valuation remains above peer industrial multiples.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay IR to keep mission-critical air, gas, liquid, powder, vacuum, pump, compressor, and life science workflows running reliably.
Moat
The moat is a portfolio moat: installed equipment, service relationships, application expertise, broad brands, global distribution, and IRX operating discipline.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if industrial demand weakens, tariffs and input costs compress margins, acquisitions dilute returns, debt limits flexibility, or the market stops paying a premium multiple.
Management
Vicente Reynal has a strong industrial operating record, but investors should monitor incentive-driven execution, insider sales, and the quality of M&A returns.
Industry trend
Flow creation, automation, life sciences, and industrial efficiency are durable markets, but they are still cyclical and sensitive to capex budgets.
Valuation and margin of safety
The business quality is above average, but at $78.71 the margin of safety depends on adjusted EPS growth and durable free cash flow rather than GAAP earnings alone.
Source-backed data
IR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $78.71 close on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch delayed quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $30.80 billion | MarketWatch key data, tool-verified with 391.337M shares | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 391.337 million | MarketBeat company statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.651 billion | Ingersoll Rand FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to IR | $581 million | Ingersoll Rand FY2025 results release, cross-checked with MarketBeat | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.220 billion | Ingersoll Rand FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.847 billion | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income attributable to IR | $192.1 million | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $1.274 billion at March 31, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q, cross-checked with Trading Economics | July 8, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $4.777 billion at March 31, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue growth 2.5% to 4.5%, adjusted EBITDA $2.130B to $2.190B, adjusted EPS $3.45 to $3.57 | Ingersoll Rand FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO | Vicente Reynal, Chairman, President and CEO | Ingersoll Rand leadership profile | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This IR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date. They can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, or market liquidity change.