Rockwell Automation, Inc. research snapshot
ROK AI stock analysis currently reads Rockwell Automation as a premium industrial automation and digital transformation company with improving demand in warehouse automation, data centers, semiconductors, and energy. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ROK closed near $480.08 on July 31 with StockAnalysis reporting a $53.42 billion market cap and 111.27 million shares outstanding. The bull case rests on Q2 fiscal 2026 sales growth of 12%, adjusted EPS growth of 32%, raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $12.50 to $13.10, durable software and control-system switching costs, and a fresh $1 billion share repurchase authorization. The caution is valuation: verified math shows about 49.9x TTM EPS and 39.9x free cash flow per share, so the stock still needs sustained order recovery, margin execution, and evidence that AI and data center demand can offset weaker capital spending in slower verticals.
Current price
$480.08
Market cap
$53.42 billion market cap, verified at $480.08 x 111.27 million shares
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial automation franchise with improving fiscal 2026 execution and a constructive uptrend, but valuation still discounts much of the recovery
Trend status
Constructive: price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages while the stock consolidates below the late-June high near $497
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rockwell sells industrial automation hardware, control systems, software, drives, motion products, safety, sensing, services, and digital transformation tools across manufacturing and process industries. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed control architectures, plant-floor integration, certification, distributor reach, engineering know-how, switching costs, and the risk customers face when changing automation platforms. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Blake Moret has emphasized execution, higher-growth end markets, disciplined capital allocation including a new $1 billion buyback, software and lifecycle services expansion, and margin recovery through productivity and price realization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales were $8.342 billion and free cash flow was $1.358 billion. Q2 fiscal 2026 sales rose 12% to $2.239 billion, adjusted EPS rose 32% to $3.30, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $12.50 to $13.10. | High |
| Valuation | At $480.08, verified math shows 49.86x TTM EPS, 15.17x book value, 39.90x free cash flow per share, and a 1.15% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | ROK sits above its 200-day moving average near $411.41 and its 50-day moving average near $463.64, with 14-day RSI near 57.29 and a 52-week range of $305.44 to $497.36. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because the franchise is durable, but valuation, capital spending cycles, distributor inventory, tariff uncertainty, Sensia transition effects, and slower verticals can pressure the setup. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data agree on core metrics. Forecast confidence is medium because multiple compression can offset operating progress. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. Rockwell is a high-quality industrial automation compounder, but the margin of safety is limited unless EPS and free cash flow compound from the raised fiscal 2026 base. | Medium |
ROK AI stock forecast
The ROK AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $480.08 stock price, $9.63 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $582 in a bull case, $392 in a base case, and $215 in a bear case before dividends. These anchors assume EPS growth of about 20%, 12%, and 2% per year and exit price-to-earnings multiples of about 35x, 29x, and 21x, all computed with exact decimal math.
$560 to $590
More likely if Rockwell delivers fiscal 2026 sales near the $8.9 billion guidance midpoint, adjusted EPS of $12.50 to $13.10, free cash flow near $1.5 billion, continued Software & Control growth, stronger data center and semiconductor demand, and stable price-cost execution. Analyst targets up to $555 from Citi support the upper end.
$390 to $425
More likely if EPS grows at a high single-digit pace, the recovery remains uneven across verticals, investors value ROK near a normalized earnings multiple closer to the mid-to-high 20s, and cash conversion stays healthy without a large order acceleration.
$200 to $245
More likely if capital investment slows, customers delay automation projects, margin gains fade, Sensia-related transition costs distract execution, tariffs pressure input costs, or investors reprice ROK toward a lower industrial multiple.
ROK AI technical analysis
ROK AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis shows a $480.08 close on July 31, 2026, a 52-week range of $305.44 to $497.36, beta near 1.54, and volume near 937,700 shares on the July 31 session. StockAnalysis technical data shows the 50-day moving average near $463.64, the 200-day moving average near $411.41, and a 14-day RSI near 57.29. Price sits above both moving averages, so the longer-term uptrend is intact while the stock consolidates below the late-June peak near $497.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $480.08 | StockAnalysis listed ROK at $480.08 at the July 31, 2026 close, and this page uses that price for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $463 to $468 | The July 31 day low near $468.07 and the 50-day moving average near $463.64 form the first support area to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $440 to $455 | The June pullback low near $440 and the $455 area that held several times in mid-July define the next support zone if the 50-day average fails. |
| Near resistance | $482 to $487 | The July 31 high near $482.67 and the early-July pivot zone near $487 are the first upside references after the July 31 close. |
| Breakout reference | $497 to $500 | The 52-week high near $497.36 set on June 30, 2026 is the key level for confirming that buyers are willing to pay a premium multiple again. |
| 50-day moving average | $463.64 | Price is above this short-term trend reference, which now supports the setup unless the stock closes below it. |
| 200-day moving average | $411.41 | Price is well above this longer-term trend reference, and a break below it would signal a deeper trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57.29 | Momentum is neutral-positive rather than overbought, which fits a constructive pullback within a longer uptrend. |
| Volume | About 692,900 shares (20-day average) | The July 31 session traded about 937,700 shares; breakouts above the $497 to $500 zone should be judged against this baseline and upcoming fiscal Q3 results. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.54 | ROK can move more than the market when industrial, rates, tariff, or AI infrastructure sentiment changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $455, then below $440 | A close below the $455 to $463 support band would weaken the setup. A sustained break below $440 or the 200-day moving average would shift the trend back to neutral or bearish. |
ROK AI trading strategy
The ROK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026, full-year guidance, Software & Control growth, Intelligent Devices demand, Lifecycle Services margins, free cash flow conversion, tariff commentary, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for ROK to hold above the $463 to $468 support band and reclaim the $482 to $487 zone, then challenge $497 to $500 with volume above the recent near 693,000 share baseline and confirmation that fiscal 2026 guidance remains intact.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a close below $463 to $468 as a warning because the setup would lose the 50-day moving average and the short-term support band.
If ROK pulls back toward $440 to $455 without a cut to sales, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, or automation demand commentary, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because Rockwell is a quality industrial. Require evidence that orders, margins, and free cash flow remain on track.
Track Q3 fiscal 2026 results on August 4, reported and organic sales growth, Software & Control margin, Intelligent Devices volume, Lifecycle Services project execution, ARR growth, free cash flow conversion, share repurchases, dividend coverage, and management comments on capital spending.
Lower confidence if the company misses the adjusted EPS range while the stock still trades above 30x forward earnings or if recovery is limited to a narrow set of AI-related end markets.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rockwell because factories, warehouses, data centers, semiconductor fabs, energy facilities, and process plants need reliable automation controls, software, sensors, drives, safety systems, and lifecycle support.
Rockwell benefits from installed control platforms, plant-specific engineering knowledge, distributor relationships, mission-critical uptime needs, software workflows, training, certification, and the operational risk of switching automation systems.
The thesis fails if customers delay capital projects, AI and data center demand proves narrower than expected, price-cost turns negative, software growth slows, tariffs bite, or valuation contracts faster than EPS grows.
Blake Moret and the current team are being tested on execution rather than story. The raised fiscal 2026 guidance, a new $1 billion buyback, and Software & Control momentum need to convert into durable free cash flow and higher recurring software value.
Rockwell sits inside long-running trends toward factory automation, digital twins, industrial software, reshoring, data center infrastructure, semiconductor capacity, warehouse automation, cybersecurity, and predictive operations. The Aalo Atomics reactor control platform win adds a nuclear energy demand data point.
At 49.86x TTM EPS and 39.90x free cash flow per share, ROK is priced like a premium recovery compounder. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while orders, margins, and free cash flow keep improving.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROK quote reference | $480.08 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis ROK overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $53.42 billion reported market cap, matching $480.08 x 111.27 million shares | StockAnalysis ROK market cap and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 111.27 million shares outstanding, down 0.84% year over year | StockAnalysis ROK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 sales | $8.342 billion, up 1% versus fiscal 2024 | Rockwell fiscal 2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income | $869 million attributable to Rockwell, or $7.67 diluted EPS | Rockwell fiscal 2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 free cash flow | $1.358 billion, from $1.544 billion operating cash flow less $186 million capital expenditures | Rockwell fiscal 2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 sales and adjusted EPS | $2.239 billion sales, up 12%, and $3.30 adjusted EPS, up 32% | Rockwell Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Reported sales growth of 5% to 9% with a midpoint near $8.9 billion, and adjusted EPS guidance of $12.50 to $13.10 | Rockwell Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | $8.80 billion revenue, $1.09 billion net income, $9.63 EPS, and $1.34 billion free cash flow | StockAnalysis ROK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $423 million cash and equivalents and about $4.05 billion total debt at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis ROK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 49.86x trailing PE, 34.79x forward PE, 15.17x book value, 39.90x free cash flow, and 1.15% dividend yield | StockAnalysis ROK statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $463.64, 200-day moving average $411.41, RSI 57.29, beta 1.54 | StockAnalysis ROK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast | Consensus Buy with an average price target of $474.58, a range of $282 to $555, and a Citi target raised to $555 on July 13, 2026 | StockAnalysis ROK forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $5.52 annual dividend, about 1.15% yield, and next ex-dividend date August 17, 2026 | StockAnalysis ROK dividend data | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchase | Board authorized an additional $1 billion for common stock repurchase on June 8, 2026 | Rockwell Automation press release via Business Wire | August 2, 2026 |
This ROK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a rating from a registered adviser, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if Rockwell Automation results, industrial demand, interest rates, tariffs, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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