Rockwell Automation, Inc. research snapshot
ROK AI stock analysis currently reads Rockwell Automation as a premium industrial automation and digital transformation company with improving demand in warehouse automation, data centers, semiconductors, and energy. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ROK traded near $468.90 with StockAnalysis reporting a $52.18 billion market cap and 111.27 million shares outstanding. The bull case rests on Q2 fiscal 2026 sales growth of 12%, adjusted EPS growth of 32%, raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $12.50 to $13.10, and durable software plus control-system switching costs. The caution is valuation: verified math shows 48.70x TTM EPS and 38.98x free cash flow per share, so the stock needs sustained order recovery, margin execution, and evidence that AI and data center demand can offset weaker capital spending in slower verticals.
Current price
$468.90
Market cap
$52.18 billion reported market cap, $52.17 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial automation franchise with improving fiscal 2026 execution and a valuation that already discounts much of the recovery
Trend status
Long-term constructive but short-term cooling, with price above the 200-day moving average and below the 50-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rockwell sells industrial automation hardware, control systems, software, drives, motion products, safety, sensing, services, and digital transformation tools across manufacturing and process industries. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed control architectures, plant-floor integration, certification, distributor reach, engineering know-how, switching costs, and the risk customers face when changing automation platforms. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Blake Moret has emphasized execution, higher-growth end markets, disciplined capital allocation, software and lifecycle services expansion, and margin recovery through productivity and price realization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales were $8.342 billion and free cash flow was $1.358 billion. Q2 fiscal 2026 sales rose 12% to $2.239 billion, adjusted EPS rose 32% to $3.30, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised. | High |
| Valuation | At $468.90, verified math shows 48.70x TTM EPS, 14.81x book value, 38.98x free cash flow per share, and a 1.18% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | ROK sits above its 200-day moving average near $464.55 but below its 50-day moving average near $480.55, with 14-day RSI near 53.67 and a 52-week range of $305.44 to $497.36. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because the franchise is durable, but valuation, capital spending cycles, distributor inventory, tariff uncertainty, Sensia transition effects, and slower verticals can pressure the setup. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data agree on core metrics. Forecast confidence is medium because multiple compression can offset operating progress. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. Rockwell is a high-quality industrial automation compounder, but the margin of safety is limited unless EPS and free cash flow compound from the raised fiscal 2026 base. | Medium |
ROK AI stock forecast
The ROK AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $468.90 stock price, $9.628 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $583.50 in a bull case, $412.40 in a base case, and $231.10 in a bear case before dividends.
$560 to $590
More likely if Rockwell delivers fiscal 2026 sales near the $8.9 billion guidance midpoint, adjusted EPS of $12.50 to $13.10, free cash flow near $1.5 billion, continued Software & Control growth, stronger data center and semiconductor demand, and stable price-cost execution.
$400 to $425
More likely if EPS grows at a high single-digit pace, the recovery remains uneven across verticals, investors value ROK near the mid-30s earnings multiple implied by forward estimates, and cash conversion stays healthy without a large order acceleration.
$220 to $245
More likely if capital investment slows, customers delay automation projects, margin gains fade, Sensia-related transition costs distract execution, tariffs pressure input costs, or investors reprice ROK toward a lower industrial multiple.
ROK AI technical analysis
ROK AI technical analysis is mixed but still long-term constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $468.90 close on July 7, 2026, a 52-week range of $305.44 to $497.36, beta near 1.54, and volume near 1.0 million shares. Investing.com showed the 50-day moving average near $480.55, the 200-day moving average near $464.55, 14-day RSI near 53.67, and a Fibonacci pivot near $481.63.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $468.90 | StockAnalysis listed ROK at $468.90 at the July 7, 2026 close, and this page uses that price for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $459 to $465 | The July 7 day range low near $459.04 and the 200-day moving average near $464.55 form the first support area to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $400 to $425 | This zone overlaps the base-case valuation range and would become more relevant if the stock loses the 200-day moving average. |
| Near resistance | $480 to $482 | The 50-day moving average near $480.55 and Fibonacci pivot near $481.63 are the first upside references after the July 7 close. |
| Breakout reference | $497 to $500 | The 52-week high near $497.36 is the key level for confirming that buyers are willing to pay a premium multiple again. |
| 50-day moving average | $480.55 | Price is below this short-term trend reference, so momentum needs confirmation before a trend-following entry. |
| 200-day moving average | $464.55 | Price remains slightly above this longer-term trend reference, making it an important invalidation area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.67 | Momentum is neutral rather than overbought, which fits a pullback within a broader recovery setup. |
| Volume | About 1.0 million shares | Breakouts above the $480 to $500 zone should be judged against average liquidity and upcoming fiscal Q3 results. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.54 | ROK can move more than the market when industrial, rates, tariff, or AI infrastructure sentiment changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $459, then below $425 | A close below the July 7 low and 200-day area would weaken the setup. A break below the base-case band would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
ROK AI trading strategy
The ROK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, full-year guidance, Software & Control growth, Intelligent Devices demand, Lifecycle Services margins, free cash flow conversion, tariff commentary, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for ROK to reclaim the $480 to $482 moving-average and pivot zone, then challenge $497 to $500 with volume above the recent baseline and confirmation that fiscal 2026 guidance remains intact.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a close below $459 to $465 as a warning because the setup would lose the 200-day moving average and short-term price support.
If ROK pulls back toward $400 to $425 without a cut to sales, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, or automation demand commentary, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because Rockwell is a quality industrial. Require evidence that orders, margins, and free cash flow remain on track.
Track Q3 fiscal 2026 results, reported and organic sales growth, Software & Control margin, Intelligent Devices volume, Lifecycle Services project execution, ARR growth, free cash flow conversion, share repurchases, dividend coverage, and management comments on capital spending.
Lower confidence if the company misses the raised adjusted EPS range while the stock still trades above 30x forward earnings or if recovery is limited to a narrow set of AI-related end markets.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rockwell because factories, warehouses, data centers, semiconductor fabs, energy facilities, and process plants need reliable automation controls, software, sensors, drives, safety systems, and lifecycle support.
Rockwell benefits from installed control platforms, plant-specific engineering knowledge, distributor relationships, mission-critical uptime needs, software workflows, training, certification, and the operational risk of switching automation systems.
The thesis fails if customers delay capital projects, AI and data center demand proves narrower than expected, price-cost turns negative, software growth slows, tariffs bite, or valuation contracts faster than EPS grows.
Blake Moret and the current team are being tested on execution rather than story. The key question is whether raised fiscal 2026 guidance converts into durable free cash flow and higher recurring software value.
Rockwell sits inside long-running trends toward factory automation, digital twins, industrial software, reshoring, data center infrastructure, semiconductor capacity, warehouse automation, cybersecurity, and predictive operations.
At 48.70x TTM EPS and 38.98x free cash flow per share, ROK is priced like a premium recovery compounder. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while orders, margins, and free cash flow keep improving.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROK quote reference | $468.90 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis ROK overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $52.18 billion reported market cap, with $52.17 billion calculated from $468.90 x 111.27 million shares | StockAnalysis ROK market cap and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 111.27 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis ROK statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 sales | $8.342 billion, up 1% versus fiscal 2024 | Rockwell fiscal 2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income attributable to Rockwell | $869 million, or $7.67 diluted EPS | Rockwell fiscal 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 free cash flow | $1.358 billion, from $1.544 billion operating cash flow less $186 million capital expenditures | Rockwell fiscal 2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $468 million cash and equivalents, $3.224 billion debt, about $2.756 billion net debt at September 30, 2025 | Rockwell fiscal 2025 Form 10-K balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 sales and adjusted EPS | $2.239 billion sales, up 12%, and $3.30 adjusted EPS, up 32% | Rockwell Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Reported sales midpoint near $8.9 billion and adjusted EPS guidance of $12.50 to $13.10 | Rockwell Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 48.70x trailing PE, 34.01x forward PE, 5.93x sales, 14.81x book value, and 38.97x free cash flow | StockAnalysis ROK statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $480.55, 200-day moving average $464.55, RSI 53.674, MACD 0.480 | Investing.com ROK technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Dividend | $5.52 annual dividend, about 1.18% yield at the July 7 close | StockAnalysis ROK dividend data | July 8, 2026 |
This ROK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a rating from a registered adviser, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if Rockwell Automation results, industrial demand, interest rates, tariffs, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
