Raymond James Financial, Inc. research snapshot
RJF AI stock analysis currently reads Raymond James Financial as a diversified wealth management, capital markets, asset management, and banking platform with record fiscal third quarter 2026 results. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, RJF traded near $175.98 with a market capitalization near $33.81 billion. The firm reported record quarterly net revenues of $3.93 billion on July 22, 2026, record client assets under administration near $1.92 trillion, and a 44% year over year increase in adjusted EPS. The RJF AI stock forecast is constructive but scenario based because fee assets, investment banking, client cash, credit costs, interest rates, and advisor recruiting can change the earnings path. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$175.98
Market cap
$33.81 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
High-quality wealth, capital markets, asset management, and banking platform with record fiscal Q3 2026 results and cyclical exposure
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, sitting just below the 52-week high with positive but extended momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Raymond James combines private client wealth management, independent and employee advisor channels, capital markets, asset management, and bank lending. Q3 fiscal 2026 net revenues were a record $3.93 billion and client assets under administration reached a record near $1.92 trillion. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from more than 8,900 advisors, 97% advisor satisfaction, client trust, scale, multi-channel affiliation options, compliance infrastructure, and the friction of moving full advisory relationships. Management argues AI investment is widening the moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Paul Shoukry became CEO in 2025 after serving as CFO and president, giving continuity but a relatively new CEO execution record to monitor. Capital returns were disciplined: $400 million of buybacks in Q3 fiscal 2026 and about $1.6 billion over the past twelve months. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Record Q3 fiscal 2026 net revenues of $3.93 billion rose 16% year over year, GAAP EPS was $3.01, adjusted EPS was $3.14 up 44%, and book value per share rose to $66.11. TTM revenue was about $15.25 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $175.98, financial_rigor.py calculates about 15.3x TTM EPS, 12.8x forward EPS, 2.66x book value, 2.22x sales, and a 1.23% dividend yield using current inputs. The multiple sits slightly above the company recent historical range. | Medium |
| Technical trend | RJF trades above its 50-day moving average near $159 and its 200-day moving average near $158, and sits just below the 52-week high near $178.28. RSI near 68 from public technical sources is positive but approaching overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are weaker equity markets, lower asset-based fees, slower advisor recruiting, investment banking cyclicality, cash sweep litigation and regulation, bank credit losses, rising compensation costs, and valuation reversion. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts and math. Medium for the forecast because wealth and capital markets revenue can move with market levels, rates, client flows, and deal activity. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. RJF has a strong franchise, but the current price needs continued fee asset growth, advisor retention, stable bank spreads, a cash sweep resolution, and healthier capital markets activity. | Medium |
RJF AI stock forecast
The RJF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $175.98 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $11.48 produced a bullish value near $272, a base value near $188, and a bearish value near $115 before dividends. The range is wide because Raymond James combines recurring wealth fees with cyclical capital markets, banking, and market-sensitive assets. Analysts tracked by S&P Global average a $185.92 twelve-month target with a Buy rating.
$260 to $285
More likely if client assets keep compounding, advisor recruiting stays strong, capital markets revenue normalizes, credit quality holds, cash sweep costs stay contained, and the market assigns a high-teens earnings multiple.
$180 to $200
More likely if EPS grows at a high-single-digit rate, asset management fees track market growth, bank net interest margin holds near recent levels, and RJF trades near a low-to-mid-teens earnings multiple.
$105 to $125
More likely if markets weaken, fee assets decline, investment banking stays soft, cash sweep balances move to higher-cost options or legal costs rise, credit costs increase, or the market prices RJF closer to a 10x earnings multiple.
RJF AI technical analysis
RJF AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance showed RJF closing near $175.98 on July 31, 2026, with a 52-week range of $138.82 to $178.28. Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots placed the stock above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 68. The stock is near its 52-week high, so the technical confidence is medium rather than high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $175.98 | July 31, 2026 close used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Near support | $169 to $172 | The 20-day moving average near $169.70 is the first support band to monitor after the late July advance. |
| Secondary support | $158 to $159 | The 50-day moving average near $158.97 and the 200-day moving average near $158.27 form a cluster that defines the trend. |
| Near resistance | $178 to $181 | The 52-week high near $178.28 is the first major upside reference after the record Q3 report. |
| Moving averages | 20-day about $169.70, 50-day about $158.97, 200-day about $158.27 | RJF is above all three major moving averages, which supports a constructive trend read but leaves less room for chasing. |
| Momentum | RSI near 68 on the 14-day reading | Barchart showed a 14-day RSI near 67.9 with a 9-day reading near 69.5. The signal is positive but approaching overbought. |
| Volume | About 1.2 million to 1.4 million shares | Recent technical sources put 20-day average volume near this range, which is the liquidity baseline for judging breakouts. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.94, 14-day historic volatility about 19% | RJF has behaved close to the market average, but company-specific rate, bank, advisor, and capital markets news can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $158, then $138 | A close below the 50-day and 200-day moving average cluster would weaken the trend. A break below the 52-week low area would damage the longer setup. |
RJF AI trading strategy
The RJF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a diversified wealth management and financial services stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, the October 2026 earnings date, monthly operating data, market levels, interest rate expectations, cash sweep updates, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for RJF to hold the $158 to $159 moving average cluster and then clear the $178.28 52-week high on above-average volume, with continued advisor recruiting data and improving capital markets commentary.
A close below the $158 zone, or a breakout that fails while financial stocks and market breadth weaken, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If RJF pulls back toward the $169 to $172 band without deterioration in client assets, advisor count, cash sweep balances, credit quality, or the capital markets pipeline, compare the price move with the earnings thesis.
Do not treat the wealth management brand as a substitute for stop discipline because fee revenue, loan performance, litigation outcomes, and investor risk appetite can change quickly.
Track client assets under administration, fee-based account assets, net new assets, financial advisor count and recruiting, cash sweep balances, bank loans, book value, investment banking revenue, compensation ratio, buybacks, and Clark Capital integration.
Reduce confidence if net new assets slow, recruited advisor assets fade, cash sweep legal or regulatory costs rise, capital markets revenue misses, credit costs increase, or valuation stays high while EPS estimates fall.
Investment research summary
Raymond James helps more than 8,900 advisors and their clients manage wealth, invest assets, trade securities, raise capital, obtain bank loans, and access planning and advisory services, earning fees, commissions, net interest income, and asset management fees in return.
The moat is built from advisor relationships, client trust, service culture, broad affiliation options, scale, compliance systems, and the effort required for clients and advisors to move full financial relationships. Management sees AI investment as widening the gap over smaller competitors.
The thesis fails if markets fall, advisor recruiting weakens, clients move cash into higher-cost products, cash sweep litigation or regulation raises costs, capital markets stays soft, loan losses rise, or compensation and technology expenses outpace revenue.
Paul Shoukry brings finance and operating continuity from his CFO and president roles. The current test is whether the new CEO can keep advisor loyalty, technology and AI investment, bank discipline, Clark Capital integration, and capital allocation aligned.
RJF benefits from long-running demand for advice, retirement wealth management, fee-based accounts, independent advisor platforms, and middle-market capital markets services, but the industry remains tied to market levels, rates, and deal activity.
The current price assumes the firm can keep compounding client assets while avoiding a major earnings reset. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while net new assets, bank spreads, cash sweep outcomes, and credit remain stable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJF price | $175.98 close on July 31, 2026, used for market cap verification | StockAnalysis quote and Yahoo Finance | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $33.81 billion, verified as $175.98 x 192.10 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 192.10 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis share statistics | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 results | Record net revenues $3.93 billion, up 16% year over year, net income $595 million, GAAP EPS $3.01, adjusted EPS $3.14, reported July 22, 2026 | Raymond James Q3 fiscal 2026 release covered by GuruFocus and Zacks | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Client assets | Record about $1.92 trillion total client assets under administration, up 17% year over year, with Private Client Group assets near $1.86 trillion | Zacks Q3 recap and GuruFocus earnings call summary | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $66.11 as of June 30, 2026, up from $60.90 a year earlier | Company Q3 fiscal 2026 release via Zacks | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 results | $14.06 billion net revenues and $2.13 billion net income, with $10.30 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis financials | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.33x TTM PE, 12.77x forward PE, 2.66x book value, 2.22x sales, 18.8% annualized return on common equity, 1.23% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo Finance | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 20-day moving average near $169.70, 50-day near $158.97, 200-day near $158.27, 14-day RSI near 68, 52-week range $138.82 to $178.28 | StockAnalysis and Barchart technical snapshots | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 14 analysts with an average price target of $185.92, range $161 to $205; Argus raised its target to $196 on July 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast and S&P Global data | Jul 30, 2026 |
This RJF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market prices, and your own due diligence.
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