The Charles Schwab Corporation research snapshot
SCHW AI stock analysis currently reads The Charles Schwab Corporation as a scaled brokerage, wealth, custody, banking, and asset management platform with record quarterly revenue, strong client asset growth, and improving net interest economics. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, SCHW traded near $105.24 with a market capitalization near $183.03 billion. The business quality score is high, but the stock already trades near a 52-week high on a trailing PE near 19x, so the SCHW AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$105.24
Market cap
$183.03 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality brokerage, custody, wealth, and banking platform with record revenue and EPS, but a full valuation tied to rates and client cash behavior
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near a 52-week high, with RSI near 65 that argues for entry discipline
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Schwab combines brokerage, advisor custody, bank sweep balances, asset management fees, trading, lending, and advice, with $13.08 trillion of client assets and 48.0 million total client accounts at June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from scale, trusted brand, advisor custody relationships, low-cost distribution, client workflows, cash sweep economics, and the difficulty of moving full financial relationships. | High |
| Management | Rick Wurster has led as President and CEO since January 1, 2025, with a strategy focused on client growth, wealth solutions, banking, technology, and disciplined capital return, including a $1.0 billion buyback in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net revenue rose 21% year over year to a record $7.072 billion, GAAP net income rose 32% to $2.800 billion, GAAP diluted EPS rose 43% to $1.54, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 42% to $1.62. | High |
| Valuation | At $105.24, financial_rigor.py calculates about 19.2x TTM EPS, 3.64x book value, 7.03x sales, 1.22% dividend yield, and ROE near 20% based on current inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above its 50-day average near $95.16 and 200-day average near $95.56, and is near its 52-week high of $107.50, with RSI near 65.53. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower market levels, deposit repricing, cash sorting, rate cuts that pressure net interest revenue, regulatory capital needs, brokerage competition, and weaker trading activity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts and math. Medium for the forecast because SCHW earnings can swing with rates, client behavior, and market cycles. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Schwab is a durable financial platform, but the current price already reflects a recovered earnings power, so upside depends on continued client asset growth and net interest margin hold. | Medium |
SCHW AI stock forecast
The SCHW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $105.24 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $5.49 produced a bullish value near $180, a base value near $131, and a bearish value near $80. The analyst consensus across 21 analysts is Buy with an average price target near $124.47. The spread shows that valuation depends on both earnings growth and the multiple investors assign to a rate-sensitive financial platform.
$170 to $190
More likely if client assets keep compounding at high single digits, net interest margin stays above 3.00%, record trading activity continues, buybacks reduce share count, and the market keeps a growth multiple on the stock.
$120 to $140
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-teens pace toward the consensus EPS estimates of $6.49 for FY2026 and $7.83 for FY2027, market levels support asset management fees, cash sorting remains manageable, and SCHW holds a 15x to 17x forward earnings multiple.
$70 to $90
More likely if rate cuts compress net interest revenue, clients move more cash into higher-yield products, trading activity fades from record levels, markets weaken, or regulators require higher capital buffers.
SCHW AI technical analysis
SCHW AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis showed SCHW above the 50-day moving average near $95.16 and the 200-day moving average near $95.56, with RSI near 65.53, a 20-day average volume near 8.5 million shares, and the stock close to its 52-week high of $107.50.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $105.24 | Close on July 31, 2026, used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Near support | $101 to $103 | The zone that held on the post-earnings pullback in late July 2026 is the first support to watch. |
| Secondary support | $95 to $96 | The 50-day moving average near $95.16 and the 200-day moving average near $95.56 cluster here, making this the main trend support band. |
| Near resistance | $107.50 to $110 | The 52-week high near $107.50 is the immediate ceiling, with $110 as the next round-number level above it. |
| Major resistance | $112 to $115 | A move into this zone would need earnings follow-through, stable cash trends, and stronger market breadth after a breakout above the 52-week high. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.53 | RSI is elevated but not yet at the overbought threshold, so the setup favors patience or confirmation rather than chasing. |
| Volume | About 8.5 million shares | The 20-day average volume provides a liquidity baseline for judging whether breakouts or pullbacks have sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.76 | SCHW has lower market beta, but rate, banking, and client activity news can still create company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $101, then $95 | A close below $101 would put the post-earnings pullback support at risk. A close below the $95 to $96 cluster would break the primary trend support. |
SCHW AI trading strategy
The SCHW AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a brokerage, wealth, bank, and asset management stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, earnings dates, interest rate expectations, client cash data, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for SCHW to hold the $101 to $103 support zone, digest the elevated RSI, and then break above $107.50 to $110 on improving volume and strong client activity data.
A close below $101, or a breakout that fails while RSI cools and volume rises on down days, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If SCHW pulls back toward the $95 to $96 moving average cluster without a deterioration in client assets, sweep cash, net interest margin, or capital ratios, compare the price move with the earnings thesis.
Do not treat brand quality as a substitute for risk control because brokerage and bank earnings can rerate quickly when rates or cash behavior shift.
Track total client assets, core net new assets, active brokerage accounts, client transactional sweep cash, average interest-earning assets, net interest margin, trading revenue, buybacks, capital ratios, and dividend policy.
Reduce confidence if client cash sorting accelerates, NIM contracts faster than expected, market levels weaken, or account growth slows while valuation stays above historical recovery assumptions.
Investment research summary
Schwab helps individual investors, advisors, and institutions hold assets, trade securities, manage cash, borrow against portfolios, access advice, and use low-cost investment products.
The moat is built from client trust, brand scale, advisor custody relationships, low-cost distribution, integrated banking and brokerage workflows, and the friction of moving complex financial relationships.
The thesis fails if deposit migration pressures funding, rate cuts reduce net interest revenue, clients trade less from record levels, market levels fall, regulators demand more capital, or low-cost rivals compress economics.
Rick Wurster inherited a strong franchise after the TD Ameritrade integration era. The current test is balancing record growth, capital return, cash management, technology investment, and client trust through a rate cycle.
Schwab sits inside long-running trends toward self-directed investing, advisor outsourcing, low-cost funds, digital wealth tools, larger retirement balances, and integrated cash plus investment platforms.
The current price assumes earnings power has recovered to record levels. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward the $95 to $96 trend support while client asset growth, sweep cash, and NIM remain stable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCHW price | $105.24 at the July 31, 2026 close, after an intraday 52-week range of $83.96 to $107.50 | Market quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $183.03 billion, verified as $105.24 x 1.74 billion shares equals about $183.1 billion | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.74 billion common shares, down about 3.4% year over year; Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares were 1.739 billion | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net revenue | $7.072 billion, up 21% year over year, a record quarter | Schwab Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $2.800 billion GAAP net income, $1.54 GAAP diluted EPS up 43%, and $1.62 adjusted diluted EPS up 42% | Schwab Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 client data | $13.08 trillion total client assets up 22%, $119.8 billion core net new assets up 49%, and 1.4 million new brokerage accounts bringing total client accounts to 48.0 million | Schwab Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 rates and activity | Net interest margin 3.00% up 12 basis points quarter over quarter, client transactional sweep cash $485.7 billion, and record daily average trades of 11.9 million up 57% | Schwab Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | $13.554 billion net revenue up 18%, $5.279 billion GAAP net income, $2.91 GAAP diluted EPS, and $3.05 adjusted diluted EPS | Schwab Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net revenue and EPS | $23.921 billion net revenue, $8.417 billion net income available to common stockholders, and $4.65 diluted EPS | Schwab 2025 annual report financial highlights | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $40.6 billion cash and cash equivalents and $22.7 billion long-term debt at June 30, 2026, with $517.3 billion total assets | Schwab Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | A $0.32 per share quarterly common dividend declared July 23, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of August 14, 2026, for an annualized payout of $1.28 per share | Schwab dividend declaration and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12-month price target of $124.47 across 21 analysts, a low of $91 and a high of $145 | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| StockAnalysis technical data | 50-day moving average $95.16, 200-day moving average $95.56, RSI 65.53, beta 0.76, and 20-day average volume 8,488,364 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
This SCHW AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell The Charles Schwab Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, client behavior, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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