Bullish case
$130 to $145
More likely if client assets keep growing, sweep cash stabilizes, net interest margin stays near recent levels, advisor custody share remains strong, trading activity holds up, and buybacks reduce share count.
The Charles Schwab Corporation research snapshot
SCHW AI Stock Analysis
SCHW AI stock analysis currently reads The Charles Schwab Corporation as a scaled brokerage, wealth, custody, banking, and asset management platform with strong client asset growth, improving net interest economics, and a trusted low-cost brand. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, SCHW traded near $101.93 with a market capitalization near $178.58 billion. The business quality score is high, but the stock already reflects a recovery in earnings power, so the SCHW AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$101.93
Market cap
$178.58 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality brokerage and wealth platform, with valuation tied to rates and client cash behavior
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with elevated RSI that argues for entry discipline
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Schwab has long public history, audited annual reports, monthly activity releases, detailed client asset metrics, quarterly earnings releases, SEC filings, and third-party quote and valuation datasets.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting Schwab brand strength, client asset growth, and net interest margin recovery while under-weighting deposit migration, interest rate sensitivity, regulatory capital pressure, cash sorting, trading activity cycles, and brokerage fee competition.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, 2025 revenue, 2025 earnings, Q1 2026 results, client asset metrics, cash, debt, and moving averages. Medium for forward returns because SCHW is sensitive to rates, cash balances, market levels, and investor activity.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Schwab is easier to study than most financial platforms because the disclosures are deep, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because funding costs, client cash mix, market levels, and regulation can change the earnings path.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Schwab combines brokerage, advisor custody, bank sweep balances, asset management fees, trading, lending, and advice, with $13.14 trillion of client assets reported for May 2026. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from scale, trusted brand, advisor custody relationships, low-cost distribution, client workflows, cash sweep economics, and the difficulty of moving full financial relationships. | High |
| Management | Rick Wurster has led as President and CEO since January 1, 2025, with a strategy focused on client growth, wealth solutions, banking, technology, and disciplined capital return. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net revenue rose 16% year over year to $6.482 billion, GAAP net income rose 30% to $2.479 billion, and adjusted EPS rose 38% to $1.43. | High |
| Valuation | At $101.93, financial_rigor.py calculates about 20.3x TTM EPS, 4.17x book value, 7.20x sales, 1.26% dividend yield, and a 20.6% ROE based on current inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above its 50-day average near $90.84 and 200-day average near $94.77, but RSI near 72.63 points to stretched short-term momentum. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower market levels, deposit repricing, cash sorting, rate cuts that pressure net interest revenue, regulatory capital needs, brokerage competition, and weaker trading activity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts and math. Medium for the forecast because SCHW earnings can swing with rates, client behavior, and market cycles. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Schwab is a durable financial platform, but the current price needs continued client asset growth and earnings recovery to justify upside. | Medium |
SCHW AI stock forecast
SCHW AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SCHW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $101.93 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $5.03 produced a bullish value near $139.40, a base value near $107.50, and a bearish value near $60.40. The spread shows that valuation depends on both earnings growth and the multiple investors assign to a rate-sensitive financial platform.
Base case
$100 to $115
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit pace, market levels support asset management fees, cash sorting remains manageable, and SCHW holds a high-teens to low-20s earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$55 to $70
More likely if rate cuts compress net interest revenue, clients move more cash into higher-yield products, trading activity fades, markets weaken, or regulators require higher capital buffers.
SCHW AI technical analysis
SCHW AI Technical Analysis
SCHW AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed SCHW above the 50-day moving average near $90.84 and 200-day moving average near $94.77, with RSI near 72.63 and 20-day average volume near 11.7 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $101.93 | Current quote used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Near support | $94 to $96 | The 200-day moving average near $94.77 is the first major trend support area after the recent rally. |
| Secondary support | $90 to $91 | The 50-day moving average near $90.84 is the next support level to monitor if the stock loses the 200-day area. |
| Near resistance | $105 to $110 | This zone is the first upside area to test after a move above $100, especially with RSI already elevated. |
| Major resistance | $115 to $120 | A move into this zone would need earnings follow-through, stable cash trends, and stronger market breadth. |
| Momentum | RSI 72.63 | RSI is above the common overbought threshold, so the setup favors patience or confirmation rather than chasing. |
| Volume | About 11.7 million shares | The 20-day average volume provides a liquidity baseline for judging whether breakouts or pullbacks have sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.76 | SCHW has lower market beta, but rate, banking, and client activity news can still create company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $94, then $90 | A close below $94 would weaken the current breakout. A close below $90 would put the 50-day trend support at risk. |
SCHW AI trading strategy
SCHW AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SCHW AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a brokerage, wealth, bank, and asset management stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, earnings dates, interest rate expectations, client cash data, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for SCHW to hold above the $94 to $96 support band, digest the elevated RSI, and then break above $105 to $110 on improving volume and strong client activity data.
A close below $94, or a breakout that fails while RSI cools and volume rises on down days, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If SCHW pulls back toward the 50-day average near $90.84 without a deterioration in client assets, sweep cash, net interest margin, or capital ratios, compare the price move with the earnings thesis.
Do not treat brand quality as a substitute for risk control because brokerage and bank earnings can rerate quickly when rates or cash behavior shift.
Fundamental monitor
Track total client assets, core net new assets, active brokerage accounts, client sweep cash, average interest-earning assets, net interest margin, trading revenue, buybacks, capital ratios, and dividend policy.
Reduce confidence if client cash sorting accelerates, NIM contracts faster than expected, market levels weaken, or account growth slows while valuation stays above historical recovery assumptions.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Schwab helps individual investors, advisors, and institutions hold assets, trade securities, manage cash, borrow against portfolios, access advice, and use low-cost investment products.
Moat
The moat is built from client trust, brand scale, advisor custody relationships, low-cost distribution, integrated banking and brokerage workflows, and the friction of moving complex financial relationships.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if deposit migration pressures funding, rate cuts reduce net interest revenue, clients trade less, market levels fall, regulators demand more capital, or low-cost rivals compress economics.
Management
Rick Wurster inherited a strong franchise after the TD Ameritrade integration era. The current test is balancing growth, capital return, cash management, technology investment, and client trust through a rate cycle.
Industry trend
Schwab sits inside long-running trends toward self-directed investing, advisor outsourcing, low-cost funds, digital wealth tools, larger retirement balances, and integrated cash plus investment platforms.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current price assumes earnings power has recovered. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward trend support while client asset growth, sweep cash, and NIM remain stable.
Source-backed data
SCHW Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCHW price | $101.93 current quote used for market cap verification | Market quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $178.58 billion, verified as $101.93 x 1.752 billion shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.752 billion common shares in the 2025 Form 10-K, with third-party July 2026 share count near 1.746 billion | Schwab 2025 Form 10-K and CompaniesMarketCap | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net revenue | $6.482 billion, up 16% year over year | Schwab Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | $2.479 billion GAAP net income, $1.37 diluted EPS, and $1.43 adjusted diluted EPS | Schwab Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 client assets | $11.77 trillion total client assets, $140.0 billion core net new assets, and 39.1 million active brokerage accounts | Schwab Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| May 2026 monthly activity | $13.14 trillion total client assets, $49.9 billion core net new assets, and 461,000 new brokerage accounts | Schwab May 2026 monthly activity release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net revenue and EPS | $23.921 billion net revenue, $8.417 billion net income available to common stockholders, and $4.65 diluted EPS | Schwab 2025 annual report financial highlights | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $46.030 billion cash and cash equivalents in the 2025 10-K cashflow reconciliation; long-term debt listed at $22.199 billion | Schwab 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| StockAnalysis technical data | 50-day moving average $90.84, 200-day moving average $94.77, RSI 72.63, beta 0.76, and 20-day average volume 11,714,587 | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This SCHW AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell The Charles Schwab Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, client behavior, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.