Morgan Stanley research snapshot
MS AI stock analysis reads Morgan Stanley as a high-quality global financial franchise that delivered record first-half 2026 results, including a record second quarter with revenue of $21.3 billion, diluted EPS of $3.46, and a 26.6% return on tangible equity, reported on July 15, 2026. As of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, MS closed at $210.42 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $330.78 billion and valuation around 17.0x trailing EPS and 3.18x book value. The positive case rests on record wealth management net new assets of $148 billion in Q2, an active investment banking pipeline, record equities revenue of $6.3 billion, a 15% quarterly dividend increase, and a standardized CET1 ratio of 14.8%. The risk case is that record earnings come from a strong capital markets cycle and the stock has pulled back about 9% from its July 15 post-earnings high, so the market already prices in strong execution. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$210.42
Market cap
$330.78 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality franchise at a cyclical peak, valuation watch
Trend status
Pullback within a longer uptrend, above the 100-day and 200-day averages and below the 20-day and 50-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Morgan Stanley combines institutional securities, wealth management, and investment management, giving it both market-cycle earnings and recurring fee-based client assets, with TTM revenue near $77.8 billion as of June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from trusted client relationships, advisor scale, a $10 trillion client asset platform, capital markets relationships, brand, regulatory licenses, risk systems, distribution, and a workplace channel that captured record $148 billion in Q2 2026 net new assets. | Medium-high |
| Management | Ted Pick is running a record-return quarter while staying disciplined on capital, raising the dividend 15% to $1.15 per quarter, holding CET1 at 14.8%, and keeping an organic-first bias for excess capital use. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 27% to $21.348 billion, diluted EPS rose 62% to $3.46, ROTCE was 26.6%, and first-half revenue was about $42 billion with EPS of $6.90, following FY2025 revenue of $70.645 billion and EPS of $10.21. | High |
| Valuation | Tool-checked valuation was about 17.00x TTM EPS, 16.12x forward EPS, 3.18x book value, and a 2.19% dividend yield, with negative TTM free cash flow due to financial-sector balance sheet movements. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MS closed at $210.42 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above its 100-day and 200-day averages, with 14-day RSI near 45.7 after a pullback from the July 15 post-earnings high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are capital markets cyclicality, equities and investment banking dependence, wealth management asset-price sensitivity, credit losses, funding stress, regulatory capital changes, compensation inflation, and multiple compression after a large share-price move. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and arithmetic checks. Lower confidence for future stock returns because financial stocks can reprice fast when markets, credit, or capital rules change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise quality is real, but the stock already reflects record execution and a favorable capital markets backdrop, and it is down about 9% from its July peak. | Medium |
MS AI stock forecast
The MS AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $210.42 July 31, 2026 close and TTM EPS near $12.38. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish three-year value near $288, a base case near $238, and a bearish case near $140 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets.
$270 to $295
More likely if investment banking and IPO activity stay strong, equities and fixed income trading remain healthy, wealth management keeps adding net new assets, buybacks and the new dividend continue, and the market holds a mid-teens to high-teens earnings multiple.
$225 to $245
More likely if EPS compounds near a high single-digit rate, wealth management offsets normal trading cyclicality, ROTCE stays in the mid-20s, and investors value MS near a 15x to 16x forward multiple, consistent with the $236 average analyst target.
$130 to $150
More likely if capital markets activity slows, IPOs and sponsor activity fade, asset prices fall, credit costs rise, buybacks slow, regulatory capital rules tighten, or investors reset the stock toward a low-cycle earnings multiple.
MS AI technical analysis
MS AI technical analysis starts from the $210.42 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 2 static page. Barchart showed the 20-day moving average near $217.15, the 50-day moving average near $214.38, the 100-day near $196.10, and the 200-day near $184.40, with 14-day RSI near 45.65 and 20-day average volume near 5.9 million shares. That keeps the longer trend constructive after a pullback from the $232 July high, but it also makes the $203 to $205 swing-low zone and the $214 to $218 resistance shelf important. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $210.42 | StockAnalysis and Barchart showed the July 31, 2026 close used for this static page. |
| Near resistance | $214 to $218 | The 50-day moving average near $214.38 and 20-day near $217.15 sit overhead. A reclaim of this zone would stabilize the pullback. |
| Major resistance | $228 to $232 | The July 15, 2026 post-earnings high zone, with an intraday high near $232.25 and a close near $228.55. |
| Near support | $203 to $205 | The July 29, 2026 swing-low zone, with an intraday low near $202.94 and a close near $203.13. |
| Secondary support | $194 to $197 | The 100-day moving average near $196.10 is the next intermediate trend reference. |
| Long-term support | $183 to $186 | The 200-day moving average near $184.40 is the main long-term trend reference. |
| 20-day moving average | About $217.15 | Barchart showed the 20-day moving average near $217.15 as of July 31, 2026, above the current price. |
| 50-day moving average | About $214.38 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both showed the 50-day moving average near $214.38 to $214.39, just above the price. |
| 100-day moving average | About $196.10 | Barchart showed the 100-day moving average near $196.10, below price and still rising with the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $184.40 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both showed the 200-day trend line near $184.40, well below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 near 45.65 | Momentum cooled from overbought after the July high; 14-day stochastic %K near 16.8 signals a short-term oversold condition. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 5.9 million shares | Reclaims of resistance should be judged against recent average participation of about 5.9 million shares per day. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 36% and a 14-day average true range near $6.97, so position sizing should allow for wider swings around reports and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $203, then $196 | A decisive close below the $203 to $205 swing-low zone weakens the pullback case. A break below the 100-day near $196 would require a fresh review of trend and risk. |
MS AI trading strategy
The MS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, valuation discipline, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for MS to reclaim the $214 to $218 resistance shelf on volume above recent averages and to hold above the 100-day moving average near $196 before treating the pullback as resolved.
A failed reclaim or a close below the $203 to $205 swing-low zone should reduce confidence in the setup.
If MS holds the $203 to $205 swing-low zone and the short-term stochastic stays oversold, compare price stabilization with wealth management net new assets, investment banking backlog, equities and fixed income trading revenue, credit costs, CET1, and buyback pace before acting.
Do not average down only because the franchise is high quality. Define maximum loss and review valuation first, because record earnings can reprice quickly if markets cool.
Track the Q3 2026 earnings report, net new assets, fee-based flows, investment banking and underwriting pipeline, equities and fixed income revenue, CET1 ratio, dividend and buyback pace, loan growth, deposits, and net interest income.
Lower the rating if market-sensitive revenue slows while compensation, credit costs, or capital requirements rise, or if the dividend and buyback pace decelerates.
Investment research summary
Morgan Stanley helps corporations, institutions, governments, and wealthy clients raise capital, trade securities, manage assets, borrow, invest, and receive advice. Customers pay because trust, access, execution, and risk control matter in high-stakes financial decisions, and the firm has built a workplace-to-advice client acquisition funnel.
The moat is strongest in wealth management distribution, advisor relationships, a $10 trillion client asset platform, institutional client access, brand trust, regulatory infrastructure, balance sheet capacity, data, and risk systems. It is not immune because capital markets revenue is competitive and cyclical.
The thesis fails if capital markets normalize lower, IPO and sponsor activity fade, wealth clients withdraw or shift assets, asset prices fall, regulators require more capital, credit losses rise, or compensation absorbs too much of the upside after record-level revenue.
Ted Pick leads a firm that is delivering record returns while keeping a 14.8% standardized CET1 ratio, raising the dividend 15%, repurchasing $1.5 billion of stock in Q2 2026, and keeping an organic-first bias for excess capital. The key test is whether that discipline holds at a cyclical peak.
Morgan Stanley benefits from long-term growth in global wealth, alternatives, advisory demand, electronic trading, and institutional risk transfer, plus a rising AI and data center capital expenditure cycle that creates financing, underwriting, and wealth activity. The trend is favorable, but financial-sector earnings still move with markets, rates, regulation, and confidence.
At roughly 17.0x trailing EPS and 3.18x book value, MS trades below the elevated multiple from earlier in 2026, but record earnings mean the market already prices strong execution. Margin of safety depends on whether EPS and ROTCE stay durable and the market pays an above-average multiple through the cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MS price | $210.42 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and Barchart | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $330.78 billion, with financial_rigor.py verifying $210.42 x 1.572 billion shares with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.57 billion shares outstanding, down 1.36% year over year; 1.554 billion basic shares in Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $21.348 billion up 27%, diluted EPS of $3.46 up 62%, net income to common of $5.436 billion, and ROTCE of 26.6% | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment mix | Record Institutional Securities revenue of $11 billion with pre-tax profit of $4.3 billion, record Wealth Management revenue of $8.9 billion, and Investment Management revenue of $1.6 billion | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 investment banking | Investment banking revenue of $2.4 billion up 58%, with advisory of $798 million, equity underwriting of $851 million, and record fixed income underwriting of $788 million | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 wealth management | Record net new assets of $148 billion, fee-based flows of $39 billion, $3 trillion fee-based assets, $8 trillion client assets, and a 30.5% pre-tax margin | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| Client assets and AUM | Total client assets of $10 trillion across wealth and investment management, with Investment Management AUM of $2 trillion and Parametric AUM over $760 billion | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| Capital and returns | Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.8%, $1.5 billion of common stock repurchased, and a 15% quarterly dividend increase to $1.15 per share | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Net revenues of $70.645 billion and common shareholder earnings of $16.249 billion, with diluted EPS of $10.21 | Morgan Stanley FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue near $77.8 billion, net income to common near $19.5 billion, and diluted EPS near $12.38 as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| 5-year financial trend | Revenue moved from $59.755 billion in FY2021 to $53.668 billion in FY2022, $54.143 billion in FY2023, $61.761 billion in FY2024, and $70.645 billion in FY2025 | StockAnalysis income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Book value and balance sheet | Book value per share of $66.18 and equity of $115.38 billion; cash and equivalents of $663.31 billion and total debt of $579.51 billion under StockAnalysis financial-sector presentation | StockAnalysis statistics and balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 17.00x TTM EPS, 16.12x forward EPS, 3.18x book value, 1.48 PEG, and 2.19% dividend yield, verified by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $1.15 announced July 15, 2026, up 15%, with an annual rate of $4.60 and a 2.19% yield at the cutoff price | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis | July 15, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $236.38 across 25 analysts, low $184, median $243, and high $262 | StockAnalysis forecast, S&P Global and TipRanks | July 21, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 9 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell out of 25 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 21, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | HSBC $190 to $215 on July 21, Freedom Capital Markets $200 to $245 on July 17, BMO $240 to $250 on July 17, Citi $220 to $235 on July 17, and BofA reiterated $250 on July 17 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts | July 21, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $82.65 billion with EPS of $12.98, and FY2027 revenue of $86.29 billion with EPS of $13.62 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $217.15, 50-day SMA near $214.38, 100-day SMA near $196.10, 200-day SMA near $184.40, 14-day RSI near 45.65, and 20-day average volume near 5.9 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week performance | MS rose about 45.18% over the trailing 52 weeks and about 18.53% year to date through July 31, 2026, with a beta of 1.22 | StockAnalysis statistics and price history | July 31, 2026 |
This MS AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold Morgan Stanley. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if filings, market prices, business conditions, rates, credit, regulation, capital markets activity, or investor expectations change.
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