PriceSmart, Inc. research snapshot
PSMT AI stock analysis currently reads PriceSmart Inc. as a well-run international warehouse club operator whose investment case depends on Central American and Caribbean consumer demand, club expansion, and membership growth. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $196.30 on July 10, 2026, with an implied market capitalization of about $6.058 billion. The AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$196.30
Market cap
$6.058 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality niche retailer, premium valuation
Trend status
Strong uptrend near 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PriceSmart operates membership warehouse clubs in 12 countries across Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia, selling branded and private-label consumer goods at low margins with high inventory turnover. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from first-mover scale in Central American warehouse retail, real estate positions, supply chain infrastructure, the Member's Selection private label brand, and membership loyalty in markets with limited modern retail alternatives. | Medium |
| Management | Management has delivered consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanded the club base from 48 to over 55 locations in recent years, and entered Chile in FY2026, while maintaining a clean balance sheet with low debt. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 annual revenue reached $5.27 billion with net income of $147.89 million. Q3 FY2026 revenue grew to $1.496 billion. Five-year revenue growth of 58.3% and five-year earnings growth of 86.8% show consistent expansion. | High |
| Valuation | At $196.30, verified TTM PE is about 37.8x, P/S is about 1.04x, and P/B is about 4.34x. The valuation is premium to traditional retailers but reflects the growth opportunity in underpenetrated Latin American markets. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price near $196.30 is close to the 52-week high of $199.84, with YTD return of 60.75% and a one-year return of 93.09%, reflecting strong bullish momentum above key moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the business is exposed to currency fluctuations, political instability, consumer spending cycles in emerging markets, expansion execution risk, and a premium valuation that leaves limited room for error. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, SEC filings, share count, and market-cap math. Lower for forward growth assumptions, currency impact projections, and political risk assessment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty because the business quality and growth trajectory are attractive, but the current price already discounts a strong expansion path, and currency or political shocks could create large drawdowns. | Low-medium |
PSMT AI stock forecast
The PSMT AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges around the $196.30 cutoff close. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $255, a base value near $183, and a bearish value near $104 using EPS growth and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$240 to $270
More likely if same-store sales keep growing at a mid-to-high single-digit pace, club expansion in Chile and existing markets continues ahead of plan, currency conditions remain stable, and the market assigns a growth-premium multiple above 30x earnings.
$175 to $195
More likely if consumer demand stabilizes, membership trends remain positive, new clubs ramp as expected, and the valuation multiple contracts toward 28x as growth normalizes.
$95 to $115
More likely if currency devaluation in key markets, political disruption, consumer spending pressure, or competition from Walmart and other regional players compresses margins and slows growth, reducing the earnings multiple toward 20x.
PSMT AI technical analysis
PSMT AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close of $196.30 and price data available at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The stock is in a strong uptrend with YTD gains above 60%, trading near its 52-week high with elevated momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $196.30 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $185.42 to $188.26 | The previous close at $188.26 and the recent intraday low of $185.42 provide first-level support. |
| Intermediate support | $170.00 to $175.00 | Estimated 50-day moving average zone based on the price trajectory from the past three months. |
| Major support | $140.00 to $150.00 | Estimated 200-day moving average zone, representing the long-term trend support level. |
| 52-week low | $103.84 | The stock bottomed at $103.84 during the past 52 weeks before rallying 89% to current levels. |
| Near resistance | $199.84 | The current 52-week high reached on July 10, 2026, acting as the immediate resistance. |
| Psychological resistance | $200.00 | The round $200 level is a natural psychological resistance point. |
| Target resistance | $210.00 to $220.00 | If PSMT breaks above $200, analyst targets and momentum targets point toward the $210-220 zone. Argus Research has a $211 target. |
| Momentum | RSI likely above 65 | With a 93% one-year gain and a sharp rally from $104 to $196, RSI is likely elevated though not necessarily overbought given the trend strength. |
| Volume | 379k vs 279k average | Trading volume on July 10 was above the trailing average, supporting the breakout move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $170 | A close below the estimated 50-day moving average weakens the short-term trend setup. Losing the 200-day area would challenge the longer-term bullish case. |
PSMT AI trading strategy
The PSMT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should pair it with live price data, earnings dates, currency and political developments in Central America, volume patterns, and position sizing.
Watch for PSMT to hold above the $175 estimated 50-day moving average zone and confirm a breakout above the $199.84 52-week high with above-average volume.
A failed breakout or daily close below $175 invalidates the short-term trend setup. Avoid chasing above the $200 round number without volume confirmation.
If PSMT pulls back toward the estimated 50-day or 200-day moving averages without a negative earnings surprise, currency crisis, or political disruption, evaluate the risk-reward based on current valuation, growth trajectory, and expansion updates.
Do not add positions if the pullback is tied to deteriorating same-store sales trends, currency instability, or a change in the competitive landscape in key markets.
Track quarterly same-store sales, membership renewal rates, total club count and expansion pace, currency-adjusted revenue growth, gross margin stability, operating margin trends, and free cash flow generation.
Reduce confidence when upside depends mainly on multiple expansion rather than verified same-store sales growth and margin improvement.
Investment research summary
PriceSmart monetizes middle-class and upper-middle-class consumer demand in underpenetrated Latin American and Caribbean markets by operating membership warehouse clubs that offer branded and private-label goods at everyday low prices.
The moat comes from being the first scaled warehouse club operator across Central America, with established real estate, distribution infrastructure, long-standing supplier relationships, and the Member's Selection brand creating modest switching costs for members.
The failure path includes currency devaluation in key markets, political instability or regulatory changes, expansion execution missteps in new countries like Chile, competition from Walmart and regional players, and consumer spending pressure in emerging markets.
Management has demonstrated consistent execution over the past five years, growing revenue by 58% and earnings by 87%, expanding the club network, entering a new country, and maintaining a healthy balance sheet with low leverage.
Modern retail and warehouse club formats are gaining share in Latin America as the middle class expands and urbanization increases. PriceSmart is positioned as a proven operator in a region with structural growth tailwinds from formal retail adoption.
At $196.30, PSMT trades at 37.8x TTM earnings. The margin of safety depends on continued double-digit earnings growth, stable currencies, successful expansion, and the market sustaining a growth-premium multiple. The current price offers limited buffer against execution misses or macro shocks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest close | $196.30 on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance PSMT summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.058 billion, verified by $196.30 x 30.86 million shares | Barchart PSMT profile and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 30.86 million shares | Barchart PSMT profile | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.69 billion, P/S ratio 1.04x | Yahoo Finance PSMT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Annual revenue (FY2025) | $5.27 billion | Barchart PSMT financial summary | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $157.19 million, profit margin 2.82% | Yahoo Finance PSMT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue | $1.496 billion, EPS of $1.28 | Barchart PSMT earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $5.19 per share | Yahoo Finance PSMT statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $322.59 million | Yahoo Finance PSMT balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 0.13 (24.02% total debt/equity) | Yahoo Finance and Barchart PSMT data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | TTM PE 37.8x, P/S 1.04x, P/B 4.34x, FCF yield 0.96%, dividend yield 0.71% | financial_rigor.py verification using Yahoo Finance TTM data | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.76 (60-month) | Barchart PSMT profile | July 12, 2026 |
This PSMT AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong. Always verify live data and consult a qualified adviser for decisions tied to your personal situation.
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