PriceSmart, Inc. research snapshot
PSMT AI stock analysis currently reads PriceSmart Inc. as a high-quality international warehouse club operator whose investment case depends on Central American and Caribbean consumer demand, club expansion, and membership growth. At the August 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $193.91 on July 31, 2026, with an implied market capitalization near $5.9 billion. The Q3 FY2026 report showed net merchandise sales up 12.5%, comparable sales up 10.7%, and diluted EPS of $1.28, but the stock now trades at about 37x trailing earnings, well above the three-analyst consensus target near $153. The AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$193.91
Market cap
$5.9 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality grower at a premium valuation
Trend status
Strong uptrend near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PriceSmart operates 57 membership warehouse clubs across 12 countries and one U.S. territory, selling branded and private-label consumer goods at low margins with high inventory turnover and double-digit comparable sales growth in Q3 FY2026. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from first-mover scale in Central American warehouse retail, owned real estate, distribution infrastructure, the Member's Selection private label, and membership loyalty in markets with limited modern retail alternatives. | Medium |
| Management | Leadership, including CEO David Price and founder and Executive Chairman Robert Price, has delivered consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanded the club base to 57 locations, and is entering Chile with a planned spring 2027 opening. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $5.27 billion with net income of $147.89 million. Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 12.5% to $1.48 billion and nine-month revenue rose 10.7% to $4.36 billion. Revenue grew from $3.62 billion in FY2021 to $5.27 billion in FY2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $193.91, verified TTM PE is about 37.3x, P/S is about 1.03x, and P/B is about 4.19x. The valuation is far above the analyst consensus target of $153.33, which implies about 21% downside from the cutoff price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price near $193.91 is close to the 52-week high of $199.84, with a 59.5% year-to-date gain and an 81% one-year gain, trading above the 50-day moving average near $183 to $184 and the 200-day moving average near $151. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the business is exposed to currency fluctuations, political instability, consumer spending cycles in emerging markets, expansion execution, and a premium valuation that leaves limited room for error versus a sell-side consensus that sits well below the market price. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, SEC filings, share count, and market-cap math. Lower for forward growth assumptions, currency impact projections, political risk assessment, and the sustainability of the current earnings multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty because the business quality and growth trajectory are attractive, but the current price already discounts a strong expansion path and trades far above analyst targets, so currency or political shocks could create large drawdowns. | Low-medium |
PSMT AI stock forecast
The PSMT AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges around the $193.91 cutoff close. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $225, a base value near $144, and a bearish value near $88 using EPS growth and terminal PE assumptions. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average 12-month target of $153.33, below the market price. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$215 to $245
More likely if comparable sales keep growing at a high single-digit to low double-digit pace, club expansion in Chile and existing markets stays on schedule, currency conditions remain stable, and the market sustains a growth-premium multiple above 30x earnings.
$140 to $170
More likely if consumer demand and comparable sales growth normalize, membership trends stay positive, new clubs ramp as expected, and the valuation multiple contracts toward the 20x to 25x zone that the analyst target range implies.
$75 to $100
More likely if currency devaluation in key markets, political disruption, consumer spending pressure, or competition from Walmart and regional players compresses margins and slows growth, reducing the earnings multiple toward the mid-teens.
PSMT AI technical analysis
PSMT AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $193.91 and price data available at the August 2026 data cutoff. The stock is in a strong uptrend with year-to-date gains above 59%, trading near its 52-week high with elevated momentum and a 14-day RSI near 62.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $193.91 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. The stock traded at $196.44 intraday on August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $189.76 to $193.00 | The 20-day moving average near $189.76 and the recent consolidation just below the July 31 close form the first support cluster. |
| Intermediate support | $183.40 to $184.00 | The 50-day moving average, reported near $183.40 by StockAnalysis and near $184.00 by Barchart. |
| Deeper support | $169.21 | The 100-day moving average near $169.21 is a reference zone if the short-term trend weakens. |
| Major support | $150.76 to $151.12 | The 200-day moving average, reported near $150.76 by StockAnalysis and near $151.12 by Barchart, representing the long-term trend support. |
| 52-week low | $105.46 | The stock bottomed near $105.46 during the past 52 weeks before rallying to current levels. |
| Near resistance | $199.84 | The current 52-week high, acting as the immediate resistance. |
| Psychological resistance | $200.00 | The round $200 level is a natural psychological resistance point above the 52-week high. |
| Target resistance | $210.00 to $225.00 | If PSMT breaks and holds above $200, momentum targets point toward the $210 to $225 zone based on the bullish scenario range. |
| Momentum | RSI about 62 | Barchart reports 14-day RSI near 62, elevated but below the overbought 70 threshold, with a 14-day raw stochastic near 91 percent showing strong short-term momentum. |
| Volume | About 290k average | Average daily volume over 20 days is near 290,000 shares per StockAnalysis, a low absolute volume that can amplify price moves. |
| Volatility | ATR about $5.53 | Barchart reports a 14-day ATR near $5.53, about 2.8 percent of price, and historic volatility near 26 to 30 percent, so position sizing should tolerate wide daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $183 | A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $183 weakens the short-term setup. A close below the 200-day moving average near $151 would challenge the longer-term bullish case. |
PSMT AI trading strategy
The PSMT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should pair it with live price data, earnings dates, currency and political developments in Central America and Chile, volume patterns, and position sizing.
Watch for PSMT to hold above the 50-day moving average near $183 to $184 and confirm a breakout above the $199.84 52-week high with rising volume.
A failed breakout or a daily close below $183 invalidates the short-term trend setup. Avoid chasing above the $200 round number without volume confirmation.
If PSMT pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $183 or the 100-day moving average near $169 without a negative earnings surprise, currency crisis, or political disruption, evaluate the risk-reward against current valuation and analyst targets near $153.
Do not add positions if the pullback is tied to deteriorating comparable sales trends, currency instability, or new competitive pressure in key markets.
Track quarterly comparable net merchandise sales, membership income and renewal rates, total club count and the six announced openings through 63 clubs, currency-adjusted revenue growth, gross margin stability, and free cash flow generation.
Reduce confidence when upside depends mainly on multiple expansion rather than verified comparable sales growth and margin improvement, because the stock trades far above the analyst consensus target.
Investment research summary
PriceSmart monetizes middle-class and upper-middle-class consumer demand in underpenetrated Latin American and Caribbean markets by operating membership warehouse clubs that sell branded and private-label goods at everyday low prices, with membership fees and health services adding to the mix.
The moat comes from being the first scaled warehouse club operator across Central America, with owned real estate, distribution infrastructure, supplier relationships, and the Member's Selection private label creating modest switching costs for members.
The failure path includes currency devaluation or illiquidity in key markets, political instability or regulatory change, expansion execution missteps in new countries like Chile, competition from Walmart and regional players, and consumer spending pressure in emerging markets.
Management has demonstrated consistent execution, growing revenue from $3.62 billion in FY2021 to $5.27 billion in FY2025, expanding the club network from 48 to 57 locations, entering a new market in Chile, and maintaining a low-leverage balance sheet.
Modern retail and warehouse club formats are gaining share in Latin America as the middle class expands and urbanization increases. PriceSmart is a proven operator in a region with structural tailwinds from formal retail adoption, and the company plans to reach 63 clubs.
At $193.91, PSMT trades at about 37.3x trailing earnings versus an analyst consensus target of $153.33, implying the market is pricing in sustained high growth. The margin of safety depends on continued double-digit earnings growth, stable currencies, successful expansion, and the market sustaining a growth-premium multiple that the sell side currently does not accept.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSMT price | $193.91 at the July 31, 2026 close; $196.44 intraday on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com PSMT quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $5.9 billion, verified as $193.91 x 30.10 million shares (StockAnalysis) or $5.98 billion using the 30.86 million shares outstanding on the May 31, 2026 balance sheet | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 30.10 million per StockAnalysis; 30,860,524 on the May 31, 2026 balance sheet | StockAnalysis.com statistics and PriceSmart Q3 FY2026 press release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.69 billion, up 10.2% | StockAnalysis.com PSMT overview | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $5.27 billion up 7.25%; net income $147.89 million; EPS $4.82 | StockAnalysis.com PSMT financials | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | Net income $157.19 million, EPS $5.20 | StockAnalysis.com PSMT statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | Total revenue $1.48 billion up 12.5%; comparable net merchandise sales up 10.7%; diluted EPS $1.28; adjusted EBITDA $90.4 million | PriceSmart fiscal 2026 third quarter operating results press release, July 8, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 results | Total revenue $4.36 billion up 10.7%; net income $128.9 million up 10.8%; diluted EPS $4.18 | PriceSmart fiscal 2026 third quarter operating results press release, July 8, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $322.59 million cash and $334.41 million total debt, net cash of -$11.82 million | StockAnalysis.com PSMT statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet equity | Total stockholders equity $1.39 billion, book value per share $46.26 | PriceSmart Q3 FY2026 press release and StockAnalysis.com | May 31, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | TTM PE 37.3x, P/S 1.03x, P/B 4.19x, P/FCF 79.2x, dividend yield 0.72% | financial_rigor.py verification using StockAnalysis.com TTM data | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $153.33 across 3 analysts, range $135 to $165; Scotiabank Hold at $165 on July 9, 2026; Kansas City Capital Hold at $135 on April 13, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com PSMT forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $183.40 to $184.00, 200-day SMA near $150.76 to $151.12, RSI near 62 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Club count | 57 warehouse clubs in 12 countries and one U.S. territory; six additional clubs announced to reach 63 | PriceSmart fiscal 2026 third quarter operating results press release | July 8, 2026 |
This PSMT AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong. The stock trades well above the sell-side consensus target, and currency, political, and expansion risks are material. Always verify live data and consult a qualified adviser for decisions tied to your personal situation.
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