Walmart Inc. research snapshot
WMT AI stock analysis currently reads Walmart Inc. as a high-quality global retailer with unmatched grocery scale, recurring traffic, Sam's Club membership economics, growing eCommerce, advertising, marketplace, and fulfillment capabilities. The positive signal is fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue growth to $177.75 billion, operating income of $7.49 billion, and diluted EPS of $0.67 after fiscal 2026 revenue of $713.16 billion. The caution is valuation: at the July 8, 2026 price reference near $113.16, WMT trades near 39.7x trailing EPS and about 71.6x TTM free cash flow per share. This WMT AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$113.16 reference
Market cap
$904.85 billion reported market cap, $900.71 billion verified
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality defensive retailer with scale, digital growth, and a demanding valuation
Trend status
Mixed to cautious, with price below several short-term trend references and near the 200-day area
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Walmart combines grocery, general merchandise, pharmacies, fuel, marketplace, delivery, advertising, Sam's Club, and global purchasing scale into a high-frequency retail model. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from price perception, store density, supplier leverage, logistics, data, grocery traffic, Sam's Club membership, and the ability to fund technology at massive scale. | High |
| Management | John Furner became CEO on February 1, 2026 after leading Walmart U.S., giving investors continuity with more direct U.S. operating and digital retail experience. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue rose to $713.16 billion and net income attributable to Walmart rose to $21.89 billion, while FY2027 Q1 revenue reached $177.75 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $113.16, WMT screens expensive for a mature retailer at about 39.7x EPS, 9.6x book value, and 71.6x free cash flow per share. | High |
| Technical trend | Momentum is mixed after a pullback from the 52-week high, with price below some 50-day references and near or below the 200-day range depending on data provider. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include valuation compression, tariff costs, wage and healthcare inflation, capital spending, weaker discretionary demand, Amazon and Costco competition, and low margin for error. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data agree on the core base, but forecast confidence is only medium because the multiple drives much of the equity outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Walmart is a strong business, but the stock needs continued traffic gains, mix improvement, and investor trust in high-margin growth streams to justify the current price. | Medium |
WMT AI stock forecast
The WMT AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $113.16 quote reference, TTM EPS of $2.85, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $84.70, a base area near $122.20, and a bullish area near $159.30 before dividends.
$150 to $165
More likely if Walmart sustains high single-digit EPS growth, global eCommerce keeps compounding near the recent pace, advertising and marketplace mix expand margins, Sam's Club membership fees grow, and investors keep assigning a premium low-40s earnings multiple.
$118 to $128
More likely if EPS compounds near 6%, revenue grows in the mid-single digits, operating income grows faster than sales, and the market values WMT around a mid-30s earnings multiple.
$80 to $90
More likely if tariffs, wages, supply chain costs, capital spending, or weaker discretionary demand pressure margins and investors re-rate Walmart closer to a high-20s retail multiple.
WMT AI technical analysis
WMT AI technical analysis is mixed to cautious as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. The $113.16 quote reference is below the 52-week high of $135.16, near the lower end of recent short-term trading, below several 50-day references, and close to the 200-day range cited by market data providers.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $113.16 | July 8, 2026 quote reference used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Immediate support | $110 to $112 | Recent trading area where buyers need to defend the post-pullback setup. |
| Deeper support | $104 to $108 | Approximate downside reset zone if the stock loses the current base and investors demand a larger valuation cushion. |
| Near resistance | $116 to $118 | Area around 200-day references and recent failed rebound levels that must be reclaimed for a stronger setup. |
| Higher resistance | $121 to $123 | Area near several 50-day moving average references where sellers may test the recovery. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $112 to $122, 200-day about $116.8 to $117.2 | Provider references differ, so the signal is treated as a range rather than a false-precision line. |
| Momentum | RSI range about 33.7 to 41.3 | Momentum is weak to neutral after the pullback, not a confirmed upside trend. |
| Volume | Average volume about 21 million to 23 million shares | Watch whether rebounds happen on stronger volume or whether down days keep showing higher participation. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.60 | WMT is usually less volatile than the market, but valuation and earnings updates can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $104 | A durable break below deeper support would weaken the defensive compounder setup and shift attention to valuation reset risk. |
WMT AI trading strategy
The WMT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects the stock setup to traffic, comparable sales, eCommerce, advertising, membership fees, margin, and moving-average confirmation.
Look for WMT to reclaim the $116 to $118 area and then the $121 to $123 area while quarterly results keep showing positive comparable sales, global eCommerce growth, membership fee growth, and operating income growth above sales growth.
A failed reclaim of the moving-average band or a break below $110 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it comes with margin warnings or weaker discretionary demand.
If WMT pulls back toward $104 to $108 while grocery traffic, Sam's Club membership, and advertising growth remain intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS expectations and peer multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback is tied to tariff pressure, slower digital growth, higher capital intensity, or a lower operating-income guide.
Track Walmart U.S. comparable sales, transactions, average ticket, global eCommerce, Walmart Connect advertising, marketplace sellers, Sam's Club membership income, gross profit rate, capex, free cash flow, dividends, and debt.
Position sizing should reflect that a high-quality defensive retailer can still lose value if the earnings multiple compresses faster than EPS grows.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Walmart to save time and money on high-frequency essentials, grocery, general merchandise, fuel, pharmacy, marketplace items, and delivery. The business works when price perception, traffic, fulfillment density, and higher-margin services improve together.
Walmart has a wide moat from purchasing scale, store density, logistics, grocery frequency, everyday-low-price trust, vendor data, Sam's Club membership, and advertising reach. The moat can narrow if Amazon, Costco, Aldi, dollar stores, or regional grocers change the value equation.
The thesis fails if valuation falls faster than EPS grows, tariffs and wages compress margins, digital fulfillment remains capital heavy, advertising growth slows, or a weaker consumer shifts baskets toward lower-margin essentials.
John Furner brings continuity from Walmart U.S. and Sam's Club leadership, with direct operating knowledge of stores, merchandising, eCommerce, advertising, and supply chain. The open question is whether new leadership can keep the tech and AI plan tied to measurable returns.
Mass retail benefits from value-seeking consumers, grocery frequency, retail media, marketplace expansion, automation, delivery, and membership programs. Long-term pressure comes from wage inflation, tariffs, shrink, fuel costs, and intense price competition.
The current price embeds a premium view of Walmart as more than a low-margin retailer. The three-scenario model shows only modest base-case upside unless earnings compound and the market preserves a high earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $113.16 on July 8, 2026 pre-market reference | StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 7.96 billion shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $900.71 billion calculated vs $904.85 billion reported | Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $713.16 billion to $713.20 billion | Walmart FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income attributable to Walmart | $21.89 billion | Walmart FY2026 Q4 release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2027 Q1 revenue | $177.75 billion | Walmart FY2027 Q1 income statement | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2027 Q1 diluted EPS | $0.67 | Walmart FY2027 Q1 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $10.73 billion | Walmart balance sheet and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $12.55 billion, $1.58 per share | StockAnalysis cash flow statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO | John Furner, President and CEO from February 1, 2026 | Walmart Corporate leadership | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day about $112 to $122, 200-day about $116.8 to $117.2 | Investing.com, Barchart, TipRanks | July 8, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
