Walmart Inc. research snapshot
WMT AI stock analysis currently reads Walmart Inc. as a high-quality omnichannel retailer with unmatched grocery scale, recurring traffic, Sam's Club membership economics, and fast-growing eCommerce, advertising, marketplace, and fulfillment services. The positive signal is fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue growth of 7.3% to $177.75 billion, operating income of $7.49 billion, diluted EPS of $0.67, global eCommerce growth of 26%, and global advertising growth of 37%. The caution is that the stock has pulled back roughly 15% from late April and still trades at about 39.2x trailing EPS with limited margin of safety ahead of the Q2 FY27 earnings report on August 20, 2026. At the July 31, 2026 close of $111.20, the market cap is about $884.9 billion. This WMT AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$111.20 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$884.94 billion reported market cap, $885.15 billion calculated
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality defensive retailer with a demanding valuation and near-term earnings caution
Trend status
Cautious, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Walmart combines grocery, general merchandise, pharmacies, fuel, marketplace, delivery, advertising, Sam's Club, and global purchasing scale into a high-frequency omnichannel retail model. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from price perception, store density, supplier leverage, logistics, data, grocery traffic, Sam's Club membership, and the ability to fund technology at massive scale. | High |
| Management | John Furner leads as President and CEO after running Walmart U.S., with direct operating knowledge of stores, merchandising, eCommerce, advertising, and supply chain. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue rose to $713.16 billion and net income rose to $21.89 billion, while FY2027 Q1 revenue reached $177.75 billion with 7.3% growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $111.20, WMT screens expensive for a mature retailer at about 39.2x EPS, 9.4x book value, and 70.5x free cash flow per share. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a roughly 15% pullback, with RSI near 44 recovering from oversold. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include valuation compression, consumer weakness, tariff and wage costs, margin pressure flagged by the Mexican unit, heavy capital spending, and Amazon and Costco competition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data agree on the core base, but forecast confidence is only medium because the multiple and upcoming Q2 results drive much of the equity outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Walmart is a strong business, but the stock needs continued traffic gains, mix improvement, and confidence in high-margin growth to justify the current price. | Medium |
WMT AI stock forecast
The WMT AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $111.20, TTM EPS of $2.84, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $77 to $84, a base area near $118 to $122, and a bullish area near $159 to $172 before dividends.
$155 to $170
More likely if Walmart sustains high single-digit EPS growth, global eCommerce keeps compounding near the recent pace, advertising and marketplace mix expand margins, Sam's Club membership fees grow, and investors keep assigning a premium low-40s earnings multiple.
$115 to $125
More likely if EPS compounds near 6%, revenue grows in the mid-single digits, operating income grows faster than sales, and the market values WMT around a mid-30s earnings multiple.
$75 to $90
More likely if tariffs, wages, weaker discretionary demand, or the consumer softness flagged by the Mexican unit pressure margins and investors re-rate Walmart closer to a high-20s retail multiple.
WMT AI technical analysis
WMT AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close of $111.20 sits below the 50-day moving average of about $115.63 and the 200-day moving average of about $118.00, roughly 12% to 13% below the 52-week high of $135.16, after a pullback of about 15% from late April.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $111.20 | July 31, 2026 close used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| 52-week range | $95.42 to $135.16 | Wide range that shows the pullback from the February 2026 high and the recovery base near $100. |
| Immediate support | $108 to $110 | Recent July trading cluster where buyers defended the base in late July. |
| Deeper support | $100 to $104 | Approximate downside reset zone if the stock loses the current base or Q2 FY27 results disappoint. |
| Near resistance | $115.5 to $118 | Zone around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages that must be reclaimed for a stronger setup. |
| Higher resistance | $121 to $122 | Area near the 100-day moving average and the year-to-date reference where sellers may test a recovery. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $115.63 to $115.64, 200-day about $118.00 to $118.01 | StockAnalysis and Barchart agree closely, so the signal is treated as a firm bearish tilt until price reclaims the zone. |
| Momentum | RSI about 44.4 | Momentum is weak but recovering from oversold levels, not a confirmed upside trend. |
| Volume | Average volume about 21 million shares over 20 days | Watch whether rebounds happen on stronger volume or whether down days keep showing higher participation. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.61, 14-day historical volatility about 23% | WMT is usually less volatile than the market, but the Q2 earnings report and valuation can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $100 | A durable break below $100 would weaken the defensive compounder setup and shift attention to valuation reset risk. |
WMT AI trading strategy
The WMT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects the stock setup to comparable sales, eCommerce, advertising, membership fees, margin, free cash flow, and moving-average confirmation, with the August 20 Q2 FY27 earnings report as a key event.
Look for WMT to reclaim the $115.5 to $118 moving-average zone and then the $121 to $122 area while quarterly results keep showing positive comparable sales, global eCommerce growth, advertising growth, membership fee growth, and operating income growth above sales growth.
A failed reclaim of the moving-average band or a break below $108 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it comes with margin warnings or weaker discretionary demand.
If WMT pulls back toward $100 to $104 while grocery traffic, Sam's Club membership, and advertising growth remain intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS expectations and peer multiples before assuming value.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback is tied to tariff pressure, slower digital growth, higher capital intensity, or a lower operating-income guide.
Track Walmart U.S. comparable sales, transactions, average ticket, global eCommerce, Walmart Connect advertising, marketplace sellers, Sam's Club membership income, gross profit rate, capex, free cash flow, dividends, and debt.
Position sizing should reflect that a high-quality defensive retailer can still lose value if the earnings multiple compresses faster than EPS grows.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Walmart to save time and money on high-frequency essentials, grocery, general merchandise, fuel, pharmacy, marketplace items, and delivery. The business works when price perception, traffic, fulfillment density, and higher-margin services improve together.
Walmart has a wide moat from purchasing scale, store density, logistics, grocery frequency, everyday-low-price trust, vendor data, Sam's Club membership, and advertising reach. The moat can narrow if Amazon, Costco, Aldi, dollar stores, or regional grocers change the value equation.
The thesis fails if valuation falls faster than EPS grows, tariffs, wages, and consumer caution compress margins, digital fulfillment stays capital heavy, advertising growth slows, or the Mexican unit weakness spreads to other markets.
John Furner brings continuity from Walmart U.S. leadership, with direct operating knowledge of stores, merchandising, eCommerce, advertising, and supply chain. The open question is whether new leadership can keep the technology and AI plan tied to measurable returns.
Mass retail benefits from value-seeking consumers, grocery frequency, retail media, marketplace expansion, automation, delivery, and membership programs. Long-term pressure comes from wage inflation, tariffs, shrink, fuel costs, and intense price competition.
The current price embeds a premium view of Walmart as more than a low-margin retailer. The three-scenario model shows only modest base-case upside unless earnings compound and the market preserves a high earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $111.20 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 7.96 billion shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $885.15 billion calculated vs $884.94 billion reported | Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $713.16 billion | Walmart FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income attributable to Walmart | $21.89 billion | StockAnalysis financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 Q1 revenue | $177.75 billion, up 7.3% | Walmart Q1 FY27 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 Q1 diluted EPS | $0.67 | Walmart FY2027 Q1 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $725.31 billion and $2.84 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $12.55 billion, $1.58 per share | StockAnalysis cash flow statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash of $10.73 billion and total debt of about $74.18 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet and FY2027 Q1 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO | John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart Inc. | Walmart Corporate leadership | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $138.02 from 43 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day about $115.63, 200-day about $118.00 | StockAnalysis and Barchart | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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