BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
BJ AI stock analysis as of the August 2026 cutoff reads BJ's Wholesale Club as a recovering warehouse-club operator with momentum in membership, fuel, and digital sales. The July 31, 2026 close near $97.78 put the stock back above the 50-day moving average reference near $89.89 and the 200-day reference near $93.19, with RSI near 64, after Q1 fiscal 2026 total revenues rose 9.9% to $5.66 billion and membership fee income rose 9.9% to $132.4 million. At that price BJ trades near 22.5x trailing EPS, so the BJ AI stock forecast now depends more on comps ex-gas, new-club productivity in Texas and the East, and free cash flow after roughly $800 million of planned fiscal 2026 capex than on an extreme multiple. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$97.78
Market cap
$12.49 billion reported market cap, $12.49 billion verified from price times shares
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Constructive but not cheap; membership, fuel, and digital momentum plus a first-time investment grade rating support the case, while heavy expansion capex keeps free cash flow thin
Trend status
Recovering; price has reclaimed the 50-day and 200-day moving average references with RSI near 64, but the stock still trades below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BJ's sells memberships, groceries, fuel, fresh food, household goods, and general merchandise through a warehouse club model that aims to undercut traditional grocery prices. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from membership renewal behavior, East Coast density, purchasing scale, gas stations, private-label assortment, and digital convenience, though the moat is narrower than Costco at national scale. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO and Chairman Bob Eddy and CFO Laura Felice are executing on membership growth, fuel and digital sales, club openings, distribution investment, and share repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 total revenues rose 4.7% to $21.46 billion and net income rose 8.2% to $578.4 million, while Q1 fiscal 2026 total revenues rose 9.9% with membership fee income up 9.9%. | High |
| Valuation | At $97.78, BJ trades near 22.5x trailing EPS, about 5.9x book value, and roughly 57x trailing free cash flow per share, a higher multiple than in July as the stock recovered. | High |
| Technical trend | Price has reclaimed the 50-day reference near $89.89 and the 200-day reference near $93.19 with RSI near 64, a clear improvement over the July pullback, though the stock remains below the 52-week high near $110.92. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include Costco and Walmart competition, comps ex-gas near the low end of guidance, merchandise margin pressure, fuel volatility, high lease and debt load, heavy expansion capex that keeps free cash flow thin, and multiple compression if growth slows. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and third-party market data agree on the core financial base, while forecast confidence is medium because retail comps and free cash flow can shift quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BJ's is a quality regional club operator, but the stock is no longer cheap, so certainty still depends on membership growth, new-club productivity, and capex discipline. | Medium |
BJ AI stock forecast
The BJ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close near $97.78, TTM EPS of $4.35, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $67, a base area near $101, and a bullish area near $132 before dividends.
$125 to $140
More likely if BJ sustains high single-digit EPS growth toward the roughly $4.90 consensus for fiscal 2027, membership fee income keeps growing near double digits, fuel and digital comps stay strong, Texas and new clubs outperform, and investors pay around a low-20s to 24x earnings multiple.
$95 to $108
More likely if EPS compounds near 5%, comps ex-gas stay in the company 2.0% to 3.0% guidance range, adjusted EPS lands near the $4.40 to $4.60 fiscal 2026 outlook, and the market keeps a near-20x earnings multiple.
$60 to $72
More likely if traffic slows, merchandise margins compress under tariff or pricing pressure, new-club returns disappoint, free cash flow stays thin after capex near $800 million, or the market re-rates BJ toward a low-teens retail multiple.
BJ AI technical analysis
BJ AI technical analysis turned more constructive as of the August 2026 cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close near $97.78 sits above the 50-day moving average reference near $89.89 and the 200-day reference near $93.19, with RSI near 64, after recovering within a 52-week range of about $83.21 to $110.92.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $97.78 | July 31, 2026 market close used for valuation and market-cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $93 to $96 | Around the 200-day moving average reference near $93.19 and the recent consolidation area. A hold here keeps the recovery intact. |
| Deeper support | $89 to $91 | Near the 50-day moving average reference near $89.89. A durable break would signal a failed reclaim and a deeper valuation reset. |
| Near resistance | $100 to $103 | Round-number resistance around the $102.35 average analyst price target. A close above would extend the recovery. |
| Higher resistance | $108 to $111 | The 52-week high zone near $110.92 where prior sellers met demand. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $89.89, 200-day about $93.19 | StockAnalysis references as of the August 2, 2026 update. Exact averages vary by provider and session. |
| Momentum | RSI near 64 | Momentum has recovered from the July pullback and is approaching overbought rather than oversold. |
| Volume | Average volume about 1.6 million shares (20-day) | Watch whether rallies arrive with expanding volume; July 31 volume was about 1.11 million shares. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.23 | BJ's is less volatile than the broad market by five-year beta, but earnings, comps, and fuel swings can still create sharp gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $93 | A durable break of the 200-day reference near $93.19 would weaken the recovery setup and shift focus back to the 50-day area near $89.89. |
BJ AI trading strategy
The BJ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines membership economics, comparable sales, club openings, free cash flow after capex, and technical invalidation levels.
Look for BJ to hold above the $93 to $96 support zone and build toward $100 to $103 while membership fee income, digital comps, and EPS guidance remain intact.
A failed hold of the 200-day area near $93 or a break below the 50-day near $89.89 should reduce setup confidence, especially if comps or margins weaken.
If BJ pulls back toward the $89 to $93 zone while tenured renewal rates, membership fee growth, and fiscal guidance stay intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS growth and peer multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback is tied to weaker traffic, tariff cost pressure, or soft new-club productivity.
Track comparable club sales excluding gasoline, membership fee income, higher-tier membership mix, fuel and digital comps, merchandise gross margin, SG&A leverage, free cash flow after capex, net debt, and share repurchases.
Position sizing should reflect that expansion capex near $800 million can keep free cash flow thin even when sales grow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay BJ's for a membership that unlocks warehouse pricing on groceries, fresh food, fuel, household essentials, and general merchandise. The business improves when membership fees, traffic, fuel, digital convenience, and club productivity grow together.
BJ's benefits from membership renewal, dense East Coast club coverage, gas stations, private-label assortment, and improving digital fulfillment. The moat is real but moderate because Costco, Sam's Club, Walmart, and grocery chains remain aggressive substitutes.
The thesis can fail if membership acquisition slows, comps ex-gas stall, new clubs underperform, tariffs raise costs, fuel volatility distorts sales mix, lease and revolving debt pressure free cash flow, or investors re-rate the stock after a growth miss.
Bob Eddy and Laura Felice are leaning into membership, fuel, digital growth, club openings, and buybacks. Q1 fiscal 2026 repurchases totaled about $207 million, about $545 million remained under the program, and the company kept adjusted EPS guidance at $4.40 to $4.60.
Warehouse clubs sit in a long-running value-retail trend as households look for lower grocery and fuel prices. The category still faces wage inflation, tariff risk, e-commerce competition, and capital intensity from new clubs and distribution centers.
At about 22.5x TTM EPS and 57x trailing free cash flow per share, the multiple has expanded with the recovery and is no longer the moderate valuation it held in July. The base three-year scenario near $101 is only modestly above the $97.78 quote, so the margin of safety has narrowed.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJ quote reference | $97.78 market close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance market references | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.49 billion calculated from $97.78 x 127.69 million shares, matching the reported $12.49 billion market cap with a 0.04% variance | StockAnalysis shares outstanding and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and income | Total revenues $21.457 billion, net income $578.4 million, diluted EPS $4.38, membership fee income $499.8 million, and adjusted EPS $4.40 | BJ's Wholesale Club Fiscal 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 Fiscal 2026 operating results | Total revenues $5.6615 billion, net income $142.7 million, diluted EPS $1.10, membership fee income $132.4 million, comps +6.3%, and comps ex-gas +1.5% | BJ's Wholesale Club Q1 Fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 outlook | Comparable club sales excluding gasoline +2.0% to +3.0%, adjusted EPS $4.40 to $4.60, and capital expenditures about $800 million | BJ's Wholesale Club Q1 Fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | Cash $27.8 million, short-term debt $375.0 million, long-term debt $399.2 million as of May 2, 2026, net debt $746.3 million, and trailing free cash flow about $218 million | BJ's Q1 Fiscal 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis cash flow summary | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical references | TTM EPS $4.35, PE about 22.5x, forward PE 21.1x, book value per share about $16.65, free cash flow per share about $1.71, 50-day about $89.89, 200-day about $93.19, RSI near 64, and 52-week range $83.21 to $110.92 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and club footprint | Average price target $102.35 with a Buy consensus from 23 analysts, including a Gordon Haskett upgrade to Buy with a $115 target on July 29, 2026; about 267 clubs and 205 gas stations across 22 states | StockAnalysis forecast page and BJ’s investor relations | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, market references, and valuation assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, rates, sentiment, or market structure change.
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