BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
BJ AI stock analysis currently reads BJ's Wholesale Club as a solid membership warehouse retailer with rising membership fee income, strong digital comparable sales, a 90% tenured renewal rate, and continued Northeast-to-broader-East footprint expansion. Fiscal 2025 total revenues reached $21.46 billion and diluted EPS reached $4.38, while Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue rose 9.9% to $5.66 billion. At the July 12, 2026 quote reference near $87.87, BJ trades around 20.1x trailing EPS, so the BJ AI stock forecast depends more on club growth, comps, and free cash flow after heavy capex than on an extreme multiple. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$87.87
Market cap
$11.24 billion reported market cap, $11.22 billion verified from price times shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality regional warehouse club with membership growth and a more moderate multiple than Costco
Trend status
Cautious to mixed, trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving average references after a pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BJ's sells memberships, groceries, fuel, fresh food, household goods, and general merchandise through a warehouse club model that aims to undercut traditional grocery prices. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from membership renewal behavior, Northeast density, purchasing scale, gas stations, private-label assortment, and digital convenience, though the moat is narrower than Costco at national scale. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO and Chairman Bob Eddy and CFO Laura Felice are executing on membership growth, digital sales, club openings, distribution investment, and share repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 total revenues rose 4.7% to $21.46 billion, net income rose 8.2% to $578.4 million, and Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue rose 9.9% with membership fee income up 9.9%. | High |
| Valuation | At $87.87, BJ trades near 20.1x trailing EPS, about 5.3x book value, and roughly 34x free cash flow per share, which is more moderate than elite membership peers but not deep value. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below recent 50-day averages near $90 and 200-day averages near $93, so the chart is weaker than the fundamental membership story. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include Costco and Walmart competition, weaker comps, tariff and wage costs, fuel volatility, high lease and debt load, heavy expansion capex, and multiple compression if growth slows. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and market data agree on the core financial base, while forecast confidence is medium because retail comps and free cash flow can shift quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BJ's is a quality regional club operator, but the equity still needs membership growth, new-club productivity, and capex discipline to justify the current price. | Medium |
BJ AI stock forecast
The BJ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $87.87 quote reference, TTM EPS of $4.38, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $53, a base area near $91, and a bullish area near $140 before dividends.
$130 to $145
More likely if BJ sustains high single-digit to low double-digit EPS growth, membership fee income stays near double-digit growth, digitally enabled sales remain strong, new clubs hit productivity targets, and investors pay around a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$88 to $100
More likely if EPS compounds near 5%, comps ex-gas stay in the company 2% to 3% guidance range, adjusted EPS lands near the $4.40 to $4.60 fiscal 2026 outlook, and the market values BJ around a high-teens earnings multiple.
$50 to $60
More likely if traffic slows, merchandise margins compress under tariff or pricing pressure, new-club returns disappoint, free cash flow stays weak after capex, or the market re-rates BJ toward a low-teens retail multiple.
BJ AI technical analysis
BJ AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The stock reference near $87.87 sits below 50-day moving average references near $90 and 200-day references near $93, after trading in a 52-week range of about $83.21 to $110.92.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.87 | July 12, 2026 quote reference used for valuation and market-cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $85 to $88 | Recent trading area around the current quote. A hold here would suggest buyers are defending the post-pullback range. |
| Deeper support | $83 to $85 | Near the 52-week low zone. A durable break lower would signal a deeper valuation reset and trend failure. |
| Near resistance | $90 to $93 | The 50-day and 200-day moving average cluster that must be reclaimed for a stronger trend-following signal. |
| Higher resistance | $100 to $111 | Round-number area and prior 52-week high zone where valuation discipline becomes more important. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $90, 200-day about $93 | Chartmill and Barchart technical references around early to mid July 2026. Exact averages vary by provider and session. |
| Momentum | RSI roughly mid-40s to low-50s by provider | Momentum is cooler after the pullback from the highs and does not show a clean overbought setup. |
| Volume | Average volume about 2.2 to 2.4 million shares | Watch whether down days arrive with above-average volume, which would point to distribution rather than quiet consolidation. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.2 to 0.4 by provider | BJ's is less volatile than the broad market by beta, but earnings, comps, and fuel swings can still create sharp gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $83 | A durable break of the 52-week low area would weaken the setup and shift focus from mean reversion to trend repair. |
BJ AI trading strategy
The BJ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines membership economics, comparable sales, club openings, free cash flow after capex, and technical invalidation levels.
Look for BJ to reclaim and hold the $90 to $93 moving-average zone while membership fee income, digitally enabled comps, and EPS guidance remain intact.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day area or a break below $85 should reduce setup confidence, especially if comps or margins weaken.
If BJ pulls back toward $83 to $85 while tenured renewal rates, membership fee growth, and fiscal guidance stay intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS growth and peer multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback is tied to weaker traffic, tariff cost pressure, or soft new-club productivity.
Track comparable club sales excluding gasoline, membership fee income, higher-tier membership mix, digital comps, merchandise gross margin, SG&A leverage, free cash flow after capex, net debt, and share repurchases.
Position sizing should reflect that expansion capex near $800 million can keep free cash flow thin even when sales grow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay BJ's for a membership that unlocks warehouse pricing on groceries, fresh food, fuel, household essentials, and general merchandise. The business improves when membership fees, traffic, digital convenience, and club productivity grow together.
BJ's benefits from membership renewal, dense Northeast club coverage, gas stations, private-label assortment, and improving digital fulfillment. The moat is real but moderate because Costco, Sam's Club, Walmart, and grocery chains remain aggressive substitutes.
The thesis can fail if membership acquisition slows, comps ex-gas stall, new clubs underperform, tariffs raise costs, fuel volatility distorts sales mix, lease and revolving debt pressure free cash flow, or investors re-rate the stock after a growth miss.
Bob Eddy and Laura Felice are leaning into membership, digital growth, club openings, distribution capacity, and buybacks. Fiscal 2025 repurchases totaled about $252 million, and Q1 fiscal 2026 added about $207 million of repurchases while guidance stayed at adjusted EPS of $4.40 to $4.60.
Warehouse clubs sit in a long-running value-retail trend as households look for lower grocery and fuel prices. The category still faces wage inflation, tariff risk, e-commerce competition, and capital intensity from new clubs and distribution centers.
At about 20.1x TTM EPS and 34x free cash flow per share, BJ is not priced like Costco, but it is also not a deep bargain. The base three-year scenario is only modestly above the July quote, while the bearish scenario shows meaningful downside if growth or the multiple resets.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJ quote reference | $87.87 market reference near July 11 to 12, 2026 | Google Finance and Robinhood market references | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.22 billion calculated from $87.87 x 127.69 million shares, compared with about $11.24 billion reported market cap and a 0.18% variance | Google Finance shares outstanding and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and income | Total revenues $21.457 billion, net income $578.4 million, diluted EPS $4.38, membership fee income $499.8 million, and adjusted EPS $4.40 | BJ's Wholesale Club Fiscal 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 Fiscal 2026 operating results | Total revenues $5.662 billion, net income $142.7 million, diluted EPS $1.10, membership fee income $132.4 million, and comps ex-gas +1.5% | BJ's Wholesale Club Q1 Fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 outlook | Comparable club sales excluding gasoline +2.0% to +3.0%, adjusted EPS $4.40 to $4.60, and capital expenditures about $800 million | BJ's Wholesale Club Q1 Fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | Cash $27.8 million, short-term debt $375.0 million, long-term debt $399.2 million as of May 2, 2026; fiscal 2025 free cash flow about $328 million | BJ's Q1 Fiscal 2026 balance sheet and StockTitan free cash flow summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical references | TTM EPS $4.38, PE about 20.1x, book value per share about $16.65, free cash flow per share about $2.57, 50-day about $90, 200-day about $93, 52-week range $83.21 to $110.92 | Company IR EPS, Yahoo book value, Macrotrends market references, and Chartmill technicals | July 12, 2026 |
| Club and membership footprint | About 267 clubs and 205 gas stations across 22 states, roughly 8 million members, and a 90% tenured member renewal rate in fiscal 2025 | BJ's investor relations and Fiscal 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, market references, and valuation assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, rates, sentiment, or market structure change.
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