Pinnacle West Capital Corporation research snapshot
PNW AI stock analysis reads Pinnacle West Capital as a regulated electric utility holding company built around Arizona Public Service, with strong customer and sales growth, a large grid and generation investment plan, and a supportive but demanding growth story. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, PNW closed at $100.99 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $12.24 billion. The Q1 2026 report delivered EPS of $0.27 versus a $0.04 loss a year earlier, customer growth of 2.2%, weather-normalized sales growth of 9.4%, and management kept 2026 EPS guidance at $4.55 to $4.75. The stock has pulled back roughly 9% from the July 2026 high of $111.16, RSI has cooled to about 35, and the next Q2 report is scheduled for August 4, 2026, just after this data cutoff. The analysis is constructive on the demand and regulated asset story but is not a certain price prediction because the stock still carries a premium utility multiple, a pending rate case, large financing needs, and interest-rate and weather risk. This page is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$100.99
Market cap
$12.24 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Arizona regulated utility growth story in a technical pullback with rate case and financing to monitor
Trend status
Corrective below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, above the 200-day
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PNW owns Arizona Public Service, an essential electric utility serving about 1.5 million Arizona homes and businesses with nuclear, gas, coal, solar, transmission, and distribution assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is regulatory and infrastructure based: APS service territory, grid assets, Palo Verde nuclear scale, customer necessity, and the practical difficulty of duplicating a regulated electric network. | High |
| Management | Management under Ted Geisler is focused on reliability, affordability, wildfire mitigation, grid investment, the pending rate case, and serving rapid Arizona growth. Capital discipline and regulatory execution are the main monitoring points. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 operating revenue was about $5.34 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was $616.5 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $1.150 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was $32.9 million, or $0.27 per share, versus a $0.04 loss in Q1 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $100.99, PNW traded near 18.99x TTM EPS, 21.24x forward earnings, 1.73x book value, and a 3.60% dividend yield. The audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull areas near $80, $104, and $131. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | PNW closed at $100.99 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages and above its 200-day moving average near $97.40, with 14-day RSI near 35 after a pullback from the 52-week high of $111.16. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include regulatory disallowance, high capex, debt funding, equity issuance, interest rates, extreme summer weather, wildfire costs, nuclear operating risk, fuel costs, and customer affordability pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenario ranges and technical timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. PNW has a strong service-territory growth story, but the share price needs regulation, funding, and execution to remain favorable. | Medium |
PNW AI stock forecast
The PNW AI stock forecast uses the $100.99 July 31 close, the 2026 weather-normalized EPS guidance midpoint of $4.65 with the consensus 2026 EPS estimate near $4.72, and utility multiple scenarios. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $80, a base area near $104, and a bullish area near $131 before dividends.
$124 to $136
More likely if EPS compounds near 8%, Arizona load growth stays strong, rate recovery is timely, subscription model contracts are signed, capital projects earn allowed returns, financing remains available, and investors pay a premium utility multiple near 22x earnings.
$98 to $110
More likely if EPS grows near 5%, APS keeps customer and sales growth within guidance, capex is funded without heavy dilution, the rate case outcome is constructive, and PNW trades around 19x forward earnings.
$74 to $86
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, the Arizona Corporation Commission limits cost recovery, equity issuance pressures EPS, severe weather raises costs, or customer affordability becomes a larger political issue.
PNW AI technical analysis
PNW AI technical analysis is corrective as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $100.99 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages and above its 200-day moving average near $97.40, with 14-day RSI near 35 and the price about 9% below the 52-week high of $111.16. StockAnalysis showed a 52-week range of $85.32 to $111.16 and a 50-day moving average of $104.39.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $100.99 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $98.50 to $100 | The July 31 day-range low near $100.29 and the recent pullback lows form the first short-term support band. |
| 200-day moving average | $97.40 | StockAnalysis reported the 200-day moving average near $97.40, the key medium-term support for the uptrend. |
| Structural support | $95 to $97 | A break below the 200-day moving average would put the medium-term uptrend from the mid-2025 lows at risk. |
| Near resistance | $102.84 to $104.39 | The 100-day moving average near $102.84 and the 50-day moving average near $104.39 sit directly overhead. |
| Overhead resistance | $106.25 | The 20-day moving average near $106.25 is the first level that would signal short-term stabilization on a reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $111.16 | The 52-week high of $111.16 marks the upper end of the one-year range on StockAnalysis. |
| Momentum | RSI about 35 | StockAnalysis reported 14-day RSI near 35.39 on August 2, 2026, which is weak after the July pullback. |
| Volume | About 1.2 million average shares | StockAnalysis listed average volume near 1.2 million shares over 20 days, useful for checking reversal quality. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $2.11 | Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $2.11, or about 2.1% of price, with moves tending to expand around the August 4 earnings date. |
| Invalidation | Close below $97.40 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $97.40 would weaken the medium-term technical framework. |
PNW AI trading strategy
The PNW AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated utility in a pullback. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, the August 4 Q2 2026 report, Treasury yields, Arizona regulatory updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for PNW to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $104 and the 20-day near $106 on volume, with the 200-day near $97.40 still rising, before treating the pullback as resolved. Confirmation should include stable Treasury yields and no adverse Arizona regulatory news.
A daily close back below the 200-day moving average near $97.40 should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If PNW holds near the $97 to $100 support band without a guidance cut, compare the near 3.6% dividend yield, rate case progress, load growth, capex funding, and peer utility multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because regulated utilities can reprice when rates, financing terms, weather costs, or commission rulings change.
Track the August 4 Q2 2026 report, 2026 EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.75, Arizona Corporation Commission decisions, APS customer growth, weather-normalized sales growth, subscription model contracts, capex, debt issuance, equity funding, dividend coverage, and wildfire mitigation costs.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage or multiple expansion rather than timely cost recovery, load growth, and funded rate-base investment.
Investment research summary
Pinnacle West is paid to deliver reliable electricity through APS. Customers pay because power is essential for homes, businesses, data centers, semiconductor plants, manufacturing, cooling, and grid access in a fast-growing Arizona service territory.
The moat comes from regulated service territory, owned generation, transmission and distribution assets, Palo Verde nuclear participation, customer necessity, and the practical difficulty of rebuilding APS at scale.
The thesis fails if regulators disallow recovery, capital projects run over budget, summer weather and wildfire costs rise, financing becomes expensive, equity dilution offsets growth, or customer bills become politically constrained.
Management should be judged by reliability, affordability, safety, wildfire mitigation, rate-case discipline, capital project execution, dividend coverage, financing mix, and whether Arizona growth creates per-share earnings growth.
PNW sits inside electrification, Arizona population growth, TSMC and semiconductor investment, data center power demand, industrial reshoring, grid modernization, nuclear reliability, and summer peak-load growth. These trends are durable but capital intensive.
At about 18.99x TTM EPS and 21.24x forward earnings, the stock still requires steady execution. Margin of safety improves if the price holds near or below the 200-day moving average while guidance, regulatory recovery, funding costs, and load growth remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PNW price | $100.99 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote page | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.24 billion, verified as $100.99 x 121.19 million shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 121.19 million shares, up 4.63% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.34 billion, up 4.20%, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and company reporting | StockAnalysis.com financials and Pinnacle West FY2025 release | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $616.53 million attributable to common shareholders, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and company reporting | StockAnalysis.com financials and Pinnacle West FY2025 release | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating revenue | $1.150 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2026 | Pinnacle West Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $32.9 million attributable to common shareholders, or $0.27 diluted EPS, versus a $0.04 loss in Q1 2025 | Pinnacle West Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 customer and sales growth | Customer growth of 2.2%, weather-normalized sales growth of 9.4% (7.4% adjusted), and 2026 sales growth guidance of 4% to 6% unchanged | Pinnacle West Q1 2026 earnings call | May 4, 2026 |
| 2026 EPS outlook | $4.55 to $4.75 weather-normalized consolidated EPS guidance reaffirmed | Pinnacle West Q1 2026 results release | May 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, March 31, 2026 | $6.4 million cash, $594.1 million short-term borrowings, $600.0 million current long-term debt, $9.802 billion long-term debt less current maturities, total assets of $30.69 billion, and total equity of $7.11 billion | Pinnacle West Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $105.79 across 17 analysts, low $87 and high $129, median $105 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 17 | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 22, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Morgan Stanley $95 to $97, BMO Capital $106 to $104, Wells Fargo maintain $106, RBC $100 to $99, Truist $105 to $107 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts, TipRanks | July 22, 2026 |
| Short interest | 9.12 million shares short, 7.53% of shares outstanding, 7.69 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $1.64 billion, capital expenditures of $2.68 billion, and free cash flow of negative $1.04 billion | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 18.99x trailing PE, 21.24x forward PE, 2.24x sales, 1.73x book value, 3.60% dividend yield, PEG 2.38 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $106.25, 50-day SMA near $104.39, 100-day SMA near $102.84, 200-day SMA near $97.40, 14-day RSI near 35.39 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026, before market open | Pinnacle West announcement via Business Wire and StockAnalysis.com | July 7, 2026 |
This PNW AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, weather, financing costs, or market multiples change. The Q2 2026 report is scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this cutoff date.
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