Ameren Corporation research snapshot
AEE AI stock analysis currently reads Ameren Corporation as a fully rate-regulated electric and natural gas utility with visible infrastructure-driven earnings growth, a reaffirmed 2026 outlook, and a large data center demand opportunity offset by a stretched balance sheet and rate sensitivity. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, AEE closed at $109.61 on July 31 with a verified market capitalization near $30.33 billion. The stock screens as a quality regulated utility rather than a cheap equity, so the forecast uses scenario ranges, regulatory milestones, interest-rate sensitivity, and technical invalidation levels instead of a certain stock price prediction.
Current price
$109.61
Market cap
$30.33 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Regulated utility compounder, price discipline required
Trend status
Pullback below the 50-day moving average, long-term uptrend intact above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ameren sells essential electric and gas service to about 2.5 million electric customers and more than 900,000 natural gas customers across Missouri and Illinois. | High |
| Moat | The moat is regulatory and infrastructure based, with franchise territories, grid assets, transmission projects, customer necessity, and scale in two Midwestern service territories. | High |
| Management | Management under Martin J. Lyons Jr. is focused on disciplined infrastructure investment, affordability, reliability, 2026 to 2030 EPS CAGR guidance of 6% to 8%, and a roughly $71 billion investment pipeline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 operating revenue reached $8.799 billion, Q2 2026 diluted EPS rose to $1.13 from $1.01, and 2026 EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $5.25 to $5.45 after the July 30, 2026 report. | High |
| Valuation | At $109.61, AEE traded near 19.3x trailing EPS, about 20.5x FY2025 GAAP EPS, and near 20.5x the 2026 guidance midpoint, with a dividend yield near 2.74%. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was about 7.4% below the $118.32 52-week high, below the 50-day moving average near $110.89 but above the 200-day moving average near $107.35, with RSI near 44. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include interest-rate sensitivity, regulatory disallowance, financing needs, severe weather, capital project execution, customer affordability, and data center load growth disappointment. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and technical timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames valuation and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AEE AI stock forecast
The AEE AI stock forecast uses the $109.61 close, FY2025 GAAP EPS of $5.35, and Ameren management guidance for 2026 EPS of $5.25 to $5.45. The audited three-year scenario framework produced a bearish area near $80 to $95, a base area near $118 to $132, and a bullish area near $145 to $160 before dividends.
$145 to $160
More likely if Ameren compounds EPS near 8%, receives constructive Missouri and Illinois regulatory treatment, keeps capital projects on budget, funds growth without heavy dilution, and holds a premium utility multiple near the low 20s.
$118 to $132
More likely if EPS grows near 6% to 7%, the 2026 to 2030 capital plan earns allowed returns, dividend coverage remains sound, and investors value AEE around 19x to 20x forward earnings.
$80 to $95
More likely if rates stay high, regulatory recovery lags, weather-normalized demand is weaker, large-customer load growth disappoints, or equity and debt financing pressure per-share earnings.
AEE AI technical analysis
AEE AI technical analysis is long-term constructive but short-term softer as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 31, 2026 close of $109.61, below the 50-day moving average near $110.89 and above the 200-day moving average near $107.35, with 14-day RSI near 44 and the $118.32 52-week high still overhead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $109.61 | StockAnalysis reported AEE closing at $109.61 on July 31, 2026, up about 0.8% on the day. |
| Near support | $107.35 to $107.19 | The 200-day moving average near $107.35 and the July 31 session low near $107.19 form the first near-term support zone. |
| Moving-average support | $107.35 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average near $107.35 at the cutoff, with the 50-day moving average near $110.89 now sitting above the price. |
| Near resistance | $110.89 | The 50-day moving average near $110.89 is the immediate overhead level after the recent pullback. |
| 52-week high | $118.32 | StockAnalysis reported the 52-week high at $118.32, with a 52-week low near $96.57. |
| Momentum | RSI about 44.4 | StockAnalysis listed 14-day RSI near 44.4, a neutral to slightly soft reading rather than an oversold signal. |
| Volume | About 2.76 million versus 1.44 million average | StockAnalysis reported July 31 volume above the 20-day average, typical for the post-earnings session, so follow-through still needs to be confirmed. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.48 | The stock is less volatile than the market, but it remains about 7.4% below the 52-week high, so multiple compression and rate sensitivity matter. |
| Invalidation | Close below $107.35 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving-average area would weaken the current long-term trend framework. |
AEE AI trading strategy
The AEE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for watching a regulated utility that pulled back below its 50-day moving average after Q2 earnings. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current chart data, rate-case updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for AEE to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $110.89 and then retest the $118.32 52-week high on volume above its recent average. Confirmation should include stable Treasury yields and no adverse regulatory update.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below the 200-day moving average near $107.35 should reduce confidence in the long-term trend setup.
If AEE holds the $107 to $109 support zone without a guidance cut, compare the dividend yield, allowed-return outlook, and sector multiple with peers before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because regulated utilities can reprice quickly when rates, equity issuance, or regulatory rulings change.
Track 2026 EPS guidance, Missouri and Illinois rate decisions, execution of the roughly $71 billion investment pipeline, operating cash flow, capex, debt issuance, equity issuance, weather-normalized demand, and data center load growth from projects such as Google and Amazon.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on weather or leverage rather than authorized returns, customer growth, and timely cost recovery.
Investment research summary
Ameren provides essential electricity and natural gas service. Customers pay because reliable power, heating, cooling, and grid access are necessities with few practical substitutes inside regulated service territories.
The moat comes from regulated franchises, owned generation, transmission and distribution assets, scale in Missouri and Illinois, customer necessity, and the difficulty of replicating grid infrastructure.
The thesis fails if regulators disallow cost recovery, capital projects overrun budgets, higher rates compress utility multiples, weather-normalized demand weakens, or financing needs dilute per-share growth.
Management should be judged by rate-case discipline, affordability, safety, capital project execution, dividend coverage, financing mix, and whether growth in rate base becomes growth in per-share owner earnings.
Ameren sits inside long-duration electrification, grid modernization, renewable investment, transmission demand, and rising data center load with Google and Amazon projects underway, but these trends require large capital spending and constructive regulation.
At roughly 20x FY2025 GAAP EPS and 19x trailing EPS, AEE requires steady execution. Margin of safety improves if price retreats while guidance, rate outcomes, and funding costs remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEE price | $109.61 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $30.33 billion, verified as $109.61 x 276.75 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $1.13 diluted EPS versus $1.01, net income to common shareholders of $314 million, and revenue of $2.09 billion | Ameren Q2 2026 results release | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 EPS guidance | $5.25 to $5.45 per diluted share, reaffirmed | Ameren Q2 2026 results release guidance | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating revenue | $8.799 billion | SEC Company Facts | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $1.461 billion total net income, or $5.35 diluted EPS | SEC Company Facts | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | $1.28 diluted EPS on revenue of $2.176 billion | SEC Company Facts | August 2, 2026 |
| Customers and service territory | About 2.5 million electric customers and more than 900,000 natural gas customers | Ameren company information | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at Q1 2026 | $13 million cash, $1.123 billion current long-term debt, and $19.003 billion noncurrent long-term debt | SEC Company Facts | August 2, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow and capex | FY2025 operating cash flow of $3.353 billion and capex of $4.128 billion | SEC Company Facts | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 19.3x trailing EPS, 2.22x book value, and 2.74% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $121.63 across 17 analysts, ranging from $108 to $137 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $110.89, 200-day moving average near $107.35, RSI near 44.4 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Investment pipeline | About $71 billion in planned investment with Google and Amazon data center projects underway | Ameren Q2 2026 earnings call and news summary | July 31, 2026 |
This AEE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, financing markets, weather, or investor sentiment change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
