General Dynamics Corporation research snapshot
GD AI stock analysis reads General Dynamics as a durable aerospace and defense company with four engines: Gulfstream business jets, nuclear submarines and surface ships, land combat systems and munitions, and government technology services. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, GD closed near $383.42 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market value near $103.58 billion. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, delivered revenue of $14.1 billion up 8.1%, diluted EPS of $4.24 up 13.4%, a 10.4% operating margin up 40 basis points, $1.9 billion of operating cash flow, a 1.4-to-1 book-to-bill, and record backlog of $136.5 billion up 32% from a year ago. Management raised 2026 EPS guidance to $16.80 to $16.90 from $16.45 to $16.55 and expects revenue near $55.7 billion. The stock set an all-time high near $400.00 on July 29 then pulled back, and the caution is that the price already reflects record demand, so the GD AI stock forecast depends on backlog conversion, margin expansion, and Gulfstream deliveries rather than a low-expectation rerating.
Current price
$383.42
Market cap
$103.58 billion verified market cap
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace and defense compounder with record backlog and a valuation that already prices in strong execution
Trend status
Positive medium and long-term trend with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from the July 29 all-time high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | General Dynamics sells business jets, nuclear submarines, naval surface ships, land combat vehicles, munitions, IT services, and mission systems into long-cycle aerospace and defense markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Gulfstream brand equity, classified and regulated defense relationships, shipyard capacity, program incumbency, certification barriers, and switching costs in mission-critical platforms. | High |
| Management | CEO Phebe Novakovic has emphasized operational discipline, portfolio focus, shareholder returns, and cash conversion while expanding record backlog across all four segments and raising 2026 guidance twice this year. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 8.1% to $14.09 billion, diluted EPS rose 13.4% to $4.24, six-month revenue rose 9.1% to $27.58 billion, and management raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $16.80 to $16.90. | High |
| Valuation | At $383.42, audited math shows about 23.4x TTM EPS, 3.9x book value, 16.1x free cash flow per share, 1.9x sales per share, and a 1.7% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | GD trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 60.8, but the stock pulled back after printing an all-time high near $400.00 on July 29, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are U.S. budget timing, contract execution, shipyard bottlenecks, Gulfstream delivery cadence and the planned G280 to G300 production gap, single-source suppliers, fixed-price program costs, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on government funding, delivery timing, and market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. GD owns durable assets and just raised guidance, but the margin of safety is not obvious after the stock traded near an all-time high. | Medium |
GD AI stock forecast
The GD AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $383.42 data cutoff price. The audited three-year model used the FY2026 EPS guidance midpoint of $16.85, annual EPS growth assumptions of 10%, 6%, and 0%, and target PE multiples of 26x, 22x, and 16x. It produced valuation anchors near $583, $442, and $270 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$555 to $595
More likely if Gulfstream deliveries beat the 160-unit plan, Marine Systems converts the record submarine and ship backlog at better margins, Combat Systems keeps double-digit order growth, Technologies stabilizes, and investors keep assigning GD a premium defense multiple.
$420 to $460
More likely if GD grows EPS near the raised guidance path, cash conversion stays near 105% of net income, backlog growth normalizes, and the market values the company around a low-20s earnings multiple.
$250 to $285
More likely if aircraft deliveries slip, shipyard costs rise, contract margins weaken, federal budget timing delays orders, the G280 to G300 production gap creates Aerospace absorption pressure, or the market rerates defense primes toward mid-cycle industrial multiples.
GD AI technical analysis
GD AI technical analysis is constructive but recent price action turned choppy as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed GD at $383.42 after the July 31 close, a 50-day moving average near $359.75, a 200-day moving average near $349.46, RSI near 60.78, and 20-day average volume near 1.16 million shares. The stock printed an all-time high near $400.00 intraday on July 29, 2026 before closing down 3.11% at $380.96, then recovered to $383.42 by July 31. Yahoo Finance showed a 52-week range of $306.03 to $400.00 and confirmed the trailing PE near 23.3x.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $383.42 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 31, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $374 to $383 | The zone combines the July 30 low near $374.04 and the July 31 low near $376.82 with the recent close range. |
| 50-day trend area | $359 to $362 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average near $359.75, so this band is the first meaningful moving-average support zone. |
| 200-day support | $346 to $351 | The 200-day moving average near $349.46 is the longer-term trend marker, with the July 20 low near $361.24 between it and the 50-day area. |
| Near resistance | $385 to $400 | The July 31 high near $384.67 is the first resistance marker. The all-time high near $400.00 set on July 29, 2026 is the major overhead level. |
| Momentum | RSI near 60.78 | Momentum is positive but not extreme after the pullback from the all-time high. The setup needs confirmation rather than a purely mechanical chase. |
| Volume | About 1.16 million 20-day average shares | Breakouts above the recent high should be judged against this average volume reference. Earnings day on July 29 saw roughly 1.92 million shares. |
| Volatility | Lower beta, but event-sensitive | StockAnalysis showed beta near 0.34, but GD can still move around earnings, budget headlines, contract awards, and Gulfstream delivery updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $361, then below $349 | A close below the 50-day moving average area near $361 would weaken short-term momentum. A sustained move below the 200-day area near $349 would challenge the longer trend. |
GD AI trading strategy
The GD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework, not personal financial advice. It connects price action with the Q3 2026 earnings call on October 30, Gulfstream delivery cadence, Marine Systems margin progress, backlog conversion, cash generation, the $500 million pension contribution, and valuation discipline.
Watch for GD to reclaim and close above the $385 to $400 resistance zone with volume above the 20-day average while Q3 results confirm revenue growth, stable margins, and strong order activity.
A failed attempt near the recent high followed by a close below the 50-day moving average near $361 should reduce confidence because the stock already reflects record demand and raised guidance.
If GD pulls back toward the $359 to $362 moving-average band without a cut to EPS, backlog, cash flow, or segment margin expectations, compare the reset price with the audited base scenario.
Do not average down solely because GD is a defense prime. Require evidence that cash conversion, Gulfstream deliveries, and shipyard execution remain intact.
Track Q3 2026 earnings on October 30, Aerospace revenue and margins, Gulfstream deliveries near the 160-unit plan, Marine Systems backlog and the 2026 revenue guide near $18 billion, Combat Systems orders, Technologies margin, operating cash flow, the $500 million pension contribution, capital expenditures of 3.5% to 4% of sales, debt, buybacks, and dividend policy.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while GD still trades above a low-20s PE multiple, if the G280 to G300 production gap pressures Aerospace margins, or if cash conversion falls behind reported earnings.
Investment research summary
Customers pay General Dynamics because business jets, nuclear submarines, naval ships, land combat systems, munitions, and secure technology services are mission-critical and hard to replace once embedded in customer plans.
GD benefits from Gulfstream brand strength, certified aviation engineering, defense program incumbency, shipyard capacity, technical clearances, long customer relationships, and high switching costs in safety-critical and classified systems.
The thesis fails if Gulfstream deliveries slip, Marine Systems costs rise faster than revenue, fixed-price contracts pressure margins, budget timing delays awards, single-source suppliers become a pacing item, the G280 to G300 gap creates absorption pressure, or investors stop paying a premium multiple for defense durability.
Phebe Novakovic has led a focused defense and aerospace operator with consistent dividends, buybacks, balance-sheet discipline, and attention to cash conversion. She raised 2026 EPS guidance twice this year, to $16.80 to $16.90, on record backlog and improving shipyard execution.
Defense modernization, submarine demand, munitions replenishment, secure IT, geopolitical tension, and private aviation demand support long-cycle revenue. The industry still depends on budgets, labor, suppliers, and contract execution.
At about 23.4x TTM EPS and 16.1x free cash flow per share, GD is not priced like a distressed contractor. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound along the raised guidance path, cash conversion stays strong, or price resets closer to the base-case range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GD quote reference | $383.42 closing price as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis GD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $103.58 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $383.42 x 270.15 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis GD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 270.15 million shares outstanding, down 0.30% year over year | StockAnalysis GD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $14.09 billion revenue, $4.24 diluted EPS, 10.4% operating margin, and $1.9 billion operating cash flow, with revenue up 8.1% and EPS up 13.4% | General Dynamics Q2 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Aerospace $3.53B, Marine Systems $4.66B, Combat Systems $2.29B, Technologies $3.62B | General Dynamics Q2 2026 segment table | August 2, 2026 |
| Six-month 2026 results | $27.58 billion revenue up 9.1%, $2.88 billion operating earnings up 11.9%, and $8.35 diluted EPS up 12.8% | General Dynamics Q2 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| Backlog | Record $136.5 billion backlog up 32% year over year and $186.9 billion total estimated contract value at July 5, 2026 | General Dynamics Q2 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | EPS raised to $16.80 to $16.90, revenue near $55.7 billion, operating margin near 10.5%, and free cash flow conversion near 105% of net income | General Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $4.3 billion cash and equivalents and about $7.5 billion total debt, a net debt position near $3.2 billion, at July 5, 2026 | General Dynamics Q2 2026 balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $16.40 EPS, $99.30 book value per share, $23.82 free cash flow per share, and $6.36 annual dividend | StockAnalysis GD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $359.75, 200-day moving average $349.46, RSI 60.78, and 20-day average volume 1.16 million | StockAnalysis GD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This GD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell General Dynamics stock, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the stated cutoff date and may be wrong if earnings, backlog, cash flow, valuation multiples, budgets, guidance, or market conditions change.
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