General Dynamics Corporation research snapshot
GD AI stock analysis currently reads General Dynamics as a durable aerospace and defense company with four major engines: Gulfstream business jets, nuclear submarines and surface ships, land combat systems, and government technology services. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, GD traded near $374.64 with a verified market value near $101.16 billion. The bull case is tied to Gulfstream deliveries, Marine Systems backlog, defense demand, cash conversion, and steady capital returns. The caution is that the stock already reflects a stronger execution outlook, so the GD AI stock forecast depends on backlog conversion and margin expansion rather than a low-expectation rerating.
Current price
$374.64
Market cap
$101.16 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace and defense compounder with strong backlog and moderate valuation risk
Trend status
Positive long-term trend, near-term momentum extended after a move toward recent highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | General Dynamics sells business jets, nuclear submarines, combat vehicles, munitions, IT services, and mission systems into long-cycle aerospace and defense markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Gulfstream brand equity, classified and regulated defense relationships, shipyard capacity, program incumbency, certification barriers, and switching costs in mission-critical platforms. | High |
| Management | CEO Phebe Novakovic has emphasized operational discipline, portfolio focus, shareholder returns, and cash conversion while expanding backlog across all four segments. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 10.1% to $52.55 billion, diluted EPS rose 13.4% to $15.45, and Q1 2026 revenue rose 10.3% to $13.48 billion with 10.5% operating margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $374.64, audited math shows about 23.6x TTM EPS, 3.9x book value, 16.4x free cash flow per share, 1.9x sales per share, and a 1.7% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | GD trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI in the mid-60s on StockAnalysis and short-term moving averages near recent highs. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are U.S. budget timing, contract execution, shipyard bottlenecks, Gulfstream delivery cadence, supply chain constraints, fixed-price program costs, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on government funding, delivery timing, and market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. GD owns durable assets, but the margin of safety is not as obvious after the stock moved near recent highs. | Medium |
GD AI stock forecast
The GD AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $374.64 data cutoff price. The audited three-year model used TTM EPS of $15.89, annual EPS growth assumptions of 10%, 6%, and 0%, and target PE multiples of 26x, 22x, and 16x. It produced valuation anchors near $549.90, $416.40, and $254.20 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$520 to $560
More likely if Gulfstream deliveries accelerate, Marine Systems converts the submarine and ship backlog at better margins, Combat Systems demand stays strong, Technologies stabilizes, and investors keep assigning GD a premium defense multiple.
$395 to $430
More likely if GD grows EPS in the mid-single to high-single digits, cash conversion remains strong, backlog growth normalizes, and the market values the company around a low-20s earnings multiple.
$240 to $270
More likely if aircraft deliveries slip, shipyard costs rise, contract margins weaken, federal budget timing delays orders, or the market rerates defense primes toward mid-cycle industrial multiples.
GD AI technical analysis
GD AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed GD at $374.64 after the July 7 close, a 50-day moving average near $346.15, a 200-day moving average near $345.66, RSI near 66.28, and 20-day average volume near 1.43 million shares. Investing.com showed a higher 50-day moving average near $361.41 and a 200-day moving average near $351.75, while Robinhood showed July 7 intraday trading from $373.56 to $380.71.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $374.64 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 7, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $361 to $374 | The zone combines the Investing.com 50-day moving average reference near $361.41 with the July 7 intraday low near $373.56. |
| 50-day trend area | $346 to $361 | StockAnalysis and Investing.com showed different 50-day references, so this band is better than a single-point support claim. |
| 200-day support | $346 to $352 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average near $345.66, while Investing.com listed about $351.75. |
| Near resistance | $381 to $385 | The July 7 intraday high near $380.71 is the first resistance marker. A clean close above it would confirm a fresh breakout attempt. |
| Momentum | RSI near 66.28 | Momentum is positive but not deeply oversold. The setup needs confirmation rather than a purely mechanical chase. |
| Volume | About 1.43 million 20-day average shares | Breakouts above the recent high should be judged against this average volume reference, not just price alone. |
| Volatility | Lower beta, but event-sensitive | StockAnalysis showed beta near 0.34, but GD can still move around earnings, budget headlines, contract awards, and Gulfstream delivery updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $361, then below $346 | A close below the higher 50-day reference would weaken short-term momentum. A sustained move below the 200-day area would challenge the longer trend. |
GD AI trading strategy
The GD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework, not personal financial advice. It connects price action with Q2 2026 earnings, Gulfstream delivery cadence, Marine Systems margin progress, backlog conversion, cash generation, debt reduction, and valuation discipline.
Watch for GD to close above the $381 to $385 resistance zone with volume above the 20-day average while Q2 results confirm revenue growth, stable margins, and strong order activity.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $361 should reduce confidence because the stock already reflects strong defense and aerospace execution.
If GD pulls back toward the $346 to $361 moving-average band without a cut to EPS, backlog, cash flow, or segment margin expectations, compare the reset price with the audited base scenario.
Do not average down solely because GD is a defense prime. Require evidence that cash conversion, Gulfstream deliveries, and shipyard execution remain intact.
Track Q2 2026 earnings, Aerospace revenue and margins, Gulfstream deliveries, Marine Systems backlog, Combat Systems orders, Technologies margin, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, debt, buybacks, and dividend policy.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while GD still trades above a low-20s PE multiple or if cash conversion falls behind reported earnings.
Investment research summary
Customers pay General Dynamics because business jets, nuclear submarines, naval ships, land combat systems, munitions, and secure technology services are mission-critical and hard to replace once embedded in customer plans.
GD benefits from Gulfstream brand strength, certified aviation engineering, defense program incumbency, shipyard capacity, technical clearances, long customer relationships, and high switching costs in safety-critical and classified systems.
The thesis fails if Gulfstream deliveries slip, Marine Systems costs rise faster than revenue, fixed-price contracts pressure margins, budget timing delays awards, or investors stop paying a premium multiple for defense durability.
Phebe Novakovic has led a focused defense and aerospace operator with consistent dividends, buybacks, balance-sheet discipline, and attention to cash conversion. The key test is execution across complex programs, not narrative quality.
Defense modernization, submarine demand, munitions replenishment, secure IT, geopolitical tension, and private aviation demand support long-cycle revenue. The industry still depends on budgets, labor, suppliers, and contract execution.
At about 23.6x TTM EPS and 16.4x free cash flow per share, GD is not priced like a distressed contractor. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound, cash conversion stays strong, or price resets closer to the base-case range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GD quote reference | $374.64 closing price as of July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis GD statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $101.16 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $374.64 x 270.02 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis GD statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 270.02 million shares outstanding, down 1.14% year over year | StockAnalysis GD statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and EPS | $52.55 billion revenue and $15.45 diluted EPS, with revenue up 10.1% and EPS up 13.4% | General Dynamics FY2025 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Aerospace $13.11B, Marine Systems $16.72B, Combat Systems $9.25B, Technologies $13.47B | General Dynamics FY2025 segment table | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $13.48 billion revenue, $4.10 diluted EPS, and 10.5% operating margin | General Dynamics Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Backlog | $130.8 billion backlog and $188.4 billion total estimated contract value at Q1 2026 quarter-end | General Dynamics Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.65 billion cash and equivalents and $6.26 billion long-term debt at April 5, 2026 | General Dynamics Q1 2026 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $15.89 EPS, $96.58 book value per share, $22.92 free cash flow per share, and $6.36 annual dividend | StockAnalysis GD statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $346.15, 200-day moving average $345.66, RSI 66.28, and 20-day average volume 1.43 million | StockAnalysis GD statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This GD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell General Dynamics stock, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the stated cutoff date and may be wrong if earnings, backlog, cash flow, valuation multiples, budgets, or market conditions change.
