Bullish case
$370 to $400
More likely if Navy shipbuilding demand stays funded, Newport News and Ingalls execution improves, Mission Technologies keeps growing, and free cash flow conversion remains close to FY2025 levels.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. research snapshot
HII AI Stock Analysis
HII AI stock analysis currently reads Huntington Ingalls Industries as a strategically important U.S. defense shipbuilder with a $54.0 billion Q1 2026 backlog, America's largest military shipbuilding footprint, and a growing Mission Technologies segment. The current HII AI stock forecast is not a single price prediction: verified July 2026 data shows the stock near $289.46, about 18.8x earnings, below key moving averages, and dependent on Navy funding, shipyard labor productivity, contract cost estimates, and free cash flow conversion. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$289.46
Market cap
$11.41 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Strategic defense shipbuilder with unusually visible backlog, but contract execution and margin risk keep the setup scenario-based
Trend status
Weak below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near neutral and backlog support on the fundamental side
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. HII has long public trading history, SEC filings, audited 10-K data, Q1 2026 10-Q data, company investor relations materials, third-party market data, and defense industry news coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is overvaluing backlog as if it were risk-free profit. HII backlog is valuable, but shipbuilding margins depend on long-cycle execution, labor availability, supply chain timing, contract modifications, and cumulative catch-up adjustments.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap, share count, FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, Q1 2026 revenue, backlog, and broad business segments. Medium for normalized margin and free cash flow because project accounting and working capital timing can move reported results.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. HII owns rare defense shipbuilding assets, but investment certainty is lower than strategic relevance because the stock depends on execution, Navy budgets, cost inflation, and whether recent cash flow strength is repeatable.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HII designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs U.S. military ships and provides all-domain defense technologies tied to Navy and government demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on scarce shipyard assets, nuclear and naval know-how, certification, customer trust, and very high replacement cost. | High |
| Management | CEO Christopher D. Kastner has led HII since March 2022 after CFO and COO roles, so he understands both program finance and shipyard operations. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 8.2% to $12.484 billion and net earnings rose to $605 million, while Q1 2026 revenue increased 13% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $289.46, verified math shows about 18.8x EPS, 14.2x FCF per share, 2.2x book value, and roughly 0.9x sales. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is below StockAnalysis 50-day and 200-day moving averages, so the technical read is cautious despite positive one-year performance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high for an industrial because one customer group, long-cycle fixed-price work, labor constraints, and cost estimates can dominate outcomes. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high, but return confidence is medium because Navy program economics and working capital timing are hard to model from public data alone. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HII screens as a strategic defense compounder with margin execution risk, not a clean low-volatility utility-like defense stock. | Medium |
HII AI stock forecast
HII AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The HII AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a guaranteed target. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $289.46 stock price, $15.39 EPS, and a three-year model, the tested outcomes were about $164 in a bear case, $294 in a base case, and $388 in a bull case before dividends.
Base case
$280 to $310
More likely if EPS grows in the low single digits, backlog converts steadily, margins recover only gradually, and the market keeps HII near a mid to high teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$155 to $175
More likely if labor shortages, supplier delays, unfavorable contract adjustments, lower shipyard margins, or a weaker defense budget outlook pressure earnings and the valuation multiple.
HII AI technical analysis
HII AI Technical Analysis
HII AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $289.46 on July 7, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $311.47 and the 200-day moving average near $346.82, with RSI around 45.24 and average volume near 489,560 shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $289.46 | StockAnalysis showed this closing price for July 7, 2026. MarketWatch also reported a July 7 close near this level. |
| Near support | $286 to $289 | The July 7 trading range included a $286.07 intraday low and a $289.46 close, making this the first short-term support area to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $278 to $283 | Recent MarketWatch references showed closes near $278.19 and $283.48 in late June 2026, which mark the next lower trading band. |
| Near resistance | $301 to $312 | A reclaim of the $300 area and the 50-day moving average near $311.47 would be the first sign of trend repair. |
| 50-day moving average | $311.47 | StockAnalysis reported HII below this level, so short-term trend confirmation is still missing. |
| 200-day moving average | $346.82 | The stock remains well below this longer trend marker, which keeps the bigger technical setup under pressure. |
| Momentum | RSI 45.24 | RSI near the midline suggests neither a clear oversold washout nor a strong momentum breakout. |
| Volume monitor | 489,560 20-day average shares | A move through the 50-day average should be tested against this volume reference and not just price alone. |
| Invalidation | Close below $278 | A decisive break below the late-June support band would weaken a mean-reversion setup and shift focus to execution or estimate risk. |
HII AI trading strategy
HII AI Trading Strategy Framework
The HII AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It combines technical levels with defense budget, backlog, contract adjustment, and free cash flow monitoring.
Trend-following setup
Wait for HII to reclaim the $301 to $312 resistance zone and hold above the 50-day moving average, then check whether volume confirms institutional participation.
Treat a failed breakout back below $289 as a warning and a close below $278 as trend invalidation.
Mean-reversion setup
If HII pulls back into the $278 to $289 area, compare price action with Q2 2026 earnings, backlog conversion, labor commentary, and free cash flow guidance.
Do not average down without a defined exit. The setup changes if management signals weaker margins or new unfavorable contract adjustments.
Fundamental monitor
Track Navy budget actions, Ingalls and Newport News margins, Mission Technologies growth, backlog near $54 billion, Q2 earnings on July 30, 2026, debt, and working capital.
Keep position size tied to evidence. HII strategic importance does not remove contract, labor, customer concentration, or valuation risk.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
HII sells naval readiness, shipbuilding capacity, sustainment, and defense technology integration. Customers pay because the U.S. Navy and allied defense agencies need carriers, submarines, surface ships, unmanned systems, C6ISR, cyber, training, and lifecycle support that few suppliers can deliver.
Moat
The moat comes from irreplaceable shipyards, nuclear and naval engineering knowledge, classified and certified workflows, long customer relationships, funded backlog, and a workforce trained around highly specialized programs. It is weakest where cost overruns reduce profit on otherwise strategic work.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if backlog converts at poor margins, Navy funding slows, labor shortages delay programs, supplier inflation persists, Mission Technologies loses growth momentum, or cumulative catch-up adjustments reveal that earlier profit assumptions were too optimistic.
Management
Christopher D. Kastner has been CEO since March 2022 after serving as COO and CFO. That background fits HII current challenge: disciplined program execution, capital spending on shipyard capacity, debt management, dividends, and selective buybacks.
Industry trend
HII sits inside long-duration defense trends: naval modernization, submarine demand, aircraft carrier sustainment, unmanned maritime systems, C6ISR, electronic warfare, cyber, AI/ML, and synthetic training. The trend is durable but politically funded.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $289.46, HII trades near 18.8x EPS and 14.2x FCF per share. Margin of safety depends less on backlog headline size and more on whether HII can convert that backlog into repeatable free cash flow without margin leakage.
Source-backed data
HII Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HII price | $289.46 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap | $11.41 billion | StockAnalysis market cap | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 39.40 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.484 billion | HII 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $605 million | HII 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $800 million, company definition | HII 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $3.099 billion | HII Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog | $54.033 billion total backlog | HII Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Segment revenue, FY2025 | Ingalls $3.078B, Newport News $6.507B, Mission Technologies $3.044B before eliminations | HII 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend | 50-day MA $311.47, 200-day MA $346.82, RSI 45.24, 20-day average volume 489,560 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | 0.71% of shares owned by insiders | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO and management context | Christopher D. Kastner, President and CEO, director since March 2022 | HII leadership and 2026 proxy | July 8, 2026 |
| Business description | America's largest military shipbuilder, all-domain defense technologies, 44,000 employees, $12.5B FY25 revenue | HII investor relations overview | July 8, 2026 |
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This HII AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the stated cutoff date, use simplified assumptions, and can be wrong if business, market, policy, or valuation conditions change.