Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. research snapshot
HII AI stock analysis currently reads Huntington Ingalls Industries as a strategically important U.S. defense shipbuilder with a $57.3 billion total backlog as of June 30, 2026, America's largest military shipbuilding footprint, and a growing Mission Technologies segment. The current HII AI stock forecast is not a single price prediction: verified August 2026 data shows the stock near $326.45, about 19.4x trailing earnings, above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average, and dependent on Navy funding, shipyard labor productivity, contract cost estimates, and free cash flow conversion. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$326.45
Market cap
$12.86 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Strategic defense shipbuilder with record backlog, raised guidance, and improving margins, but execution, labor, and cash conversion risk keep the setup scenario-based
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average after a strong Q2 2026 earnings report, but still below the 200-day moving average near $347, with RSI approaching overbought
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HII designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs U.S. military ships and provides all-domain defense technologies tied to Navy and government demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on scarce shipyard assets, nuclear and naval know-how, certification, customer trust, and a $57.3 billion backlog. | High |
| Management | CEO Christopher D. Kastner has led HII since March 2022 after CFO and COO roles, and the team raised full-year shipbuilding guidance in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 10.9% to $3.418 billion and diluted EPS rose to $5.27, while shipbuilding revenue and margin guidance were raised for FY26. | High |
| Valuation | At $326.45, verified math shows about 19.4x trailing EPS, 17.0x forward EPS, 2.4x book value, and roughly 1.0x sales. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock gapped higher after Q2 2026 results and now sits above the 50-day moving average near $292, but it remains below the 200-day moving average near $347. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high for an industrial because one customer group, long-cycle fixed-price work, labor constraints, and cost estimates can dominate outcomes. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high, but return confidence is medium because Navy program economics and working capital timing are hard to model from public data alone. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HII screens as a strategic defense compounder with improving momentum, but margin execution, labor availability, and cash conversion keep certainty medium. | Medium |
HII AI stock forecast
The HII AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a guaranteed target. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $326.45 stock price, $16.79 trailing EPS, and a three-year model, the tested outcomes were about $229 in a bear case, $370 in a base case, and $472 in a bull case before dividends.
$440 to $500
More likely if the Block VI Virginia and Build II Columbia submarine programs ramp, Newport News and Ingalls margins keep improving, Mission Technologies stabilizes, and free cash flow conversion reaches the $500 to $600 million FY26 guidance.
$340 to $400
More likely if EPS grows in the high single digits, backlog converts steadily, shipbuilding margins hold near 6% to 6.5%, and the market keeps HII near a 17x to 19x forward multiple.
$210 to $250
More likely if labor shortages, supplier delays, unfavorable contract adjustments, weaker shipyard margins, or a softer defense budget outlook pressure earnings and the valuation multiple.
HII AI technical analysis
HII AI technical analysis is constructive but still below the long-term trend marker as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $326.45 on July 31, 2026, up about 14% on the Q2 2026 earnings day, above the 50-day moving average near $292.30 but below the 200-day moving average near $347.21, with RSI around 67.43 and 20-day average volume near 530,000 shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $326.45 | StockAnalysis showed this closing price for July 31, 2026. The stock gapped up after Q2 2026 results on July 30. |
| Near support | $311 to $320 | The July 31 trading range included a $311.50 intraday low and a $326.45 close, making this the first short-term support band. |
| Breakout support | $296 to $300 | The July 30 earnings-day range included a $296.66 intraday low, which marks the edge of the pre-earnings consolidation and a key breakout reference. |
| Deeper support | $287 to $290 | Late-July pre-earnings closes near $287 to $289 and early-July closes near $289 form the next lower support zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $292.30 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day average near $292, now below price, which supports the short-term trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $347.21 | The stock remains below this longer trend marker, so the bigger uptrend is still not confirmed. |
| Near resistance | $329.55 | The July 31 intraday high near $329.55 is the first overhead test before the 200-day average. |
| Higher resistance | $360 to $380 | Citi raised its HII price target to $379 in late July 2026, and other analyst targets sit in this zone alongside prior 52-week supply. |
| Momentum | RSI 67.43 | RSI is approaching overbought after the earnings move, so chasing strength without a pullback raises near-term risk. |
| Volume monitor | 530,000 20-day average shares | Earnings-day volume reached about 1.37 million shares, well above the 20-day average near 530,000. |
| Invalidation | Close below $296 | A decisive close back below the breakout reference near $296 would weaken the post-earnings setup and refocus attention on the 50-day average near $292. |
HII AI trading strategy
The HII AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It combines technical levels with Navy budget, submarine program, contract adjustment, labor, and free cash flow monitoring.
Wait for HII to reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average near $347 on volume, using a sustained move above the $329.55 breakout high as confirmation.
Treat a close back below the $296 breakout reference as setup failure and a break below the 50-day average near $292 as a deeper warning.
If HII pulls back toward the $296 to $311 area, compare price action with Q2 2026 earnings, backlog conversion, labor commentary, and the pace of full-year free cash flow conversion.
Do not average down without a defined exit. The setup changes if management signals weaker margins or new unfavorable contract adjustments.
Track Navy budget actions, Ingalls and Newport News margins, Mission Technologies growth, backlog near $57.3 billion, FY26 free cash flow of $500 to $600 million, debt, and working capital.
Keep position size tied to evidence. HII strategic importance does not remove contract, labor, customer concentration, or valuation risk.
Investment research summary
HII sells naval readiness, shipbuilding capacity, sustainment, and defense technology integration. Customers pay because the U.S. Navy and allied defense agencies need carriers, submarines, surface ships, unmanned systems, C6ISR, cyber, training, and lifecycle support that few suppliers can deliver.
The moat comes from irreplaceable shipyards, nuclear and naval engineering knowledge, classified and certified workflows, long customer relationships, a $57.3 billion backlog, and a workforce trained around highly specialized programs. It is weakest where cost overruns reduce profit on otherwise strategic work.
The thesis fails if the Block VI Virginia and Build II Columbia submarine programs convert at poor margins, Navy funding slows, labor shortages delay programs, supplier inflation persists, Mission Technologies loses momentum, or cumulative catch-up adjustments reveal that earlier profit assumptions were too optimistic.
Christopher D. Kastner has been CEO since March 2022 after serving as COO and CFO. That background fits HII current challenge: disciplined program execution, capital spending on shipyard capacity, debt management, dividends, and selective buybacks, and Q2 2026 showed the payoff with raised guidance.
HII sits inside long-duration defense trends: naval modernization, submarine demand, aircraft carrier sustainment, unmanned maritime systems, C6ISR, electronic warfare, cyber, AI/ML, and synthetic training. The trend is durable but politically funded, and the July 2026 submarine contract awards add multi-decade demand visibility.
At $326.45, HII trades near 19.4x trailing and 17.0x forward earnings. Margin of safety depends less on backlog headline size and more on whether HII can convert that backlog into repeatable free cash flow, guided at $500 to $600 million for FY26, without margin leakage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HII price | $326.45 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap | $12.86 billion | StockAnalysis market cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 39.40 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $3.418 billion, up 10.9% year over year | HII Q2 2026 earnings release and 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 diluted EPS | $5.27, up from $3.86 | HII Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 revenue and EPS | $6.517 billion and $9.06 diluted EPS | HII Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Total backlog | $57.3 billion as of June 30, 2026 | HII Q2 2026 earnings release and 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net earnings | $12.484 billion and $605 million | HII 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY26 guidance | Shipbuilding revenue $10.2B to $10.4B, shipbuilding operating margin 6.0% to 6.5%, free cash flow $500M to $600M | HII Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Submarine contract awards | Block VI Virginia and Build II Columbia construction, about $76.6 billion combined with General Dynamics Electric Boat | HII press release, July 29, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue, Q2 2026 | Ingalls $845M, Newport News $1.849B, Mission Technologies $760M before eliminations | HII Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 19.44, forward PE 17.03, PS 0.98, PB 2.42, dividend yield 1.69% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical trend | 50-day MA $292.30, 200-day MA $347.21, RSI 67.43, 20-day average volume 530,000 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating, 12 analysts, average price target $362.75 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | 0.71% of shares owned by insiders | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO and management context | Christopher D. Kastner, President and CEO, director since March 2022 | HII leadership | August 2, 2026 |
| Business description | America's largest military shipbuilder, all-domain defense technologies, 45,000 employees | HII Q2 2026 earnings release and investor relations | August 2, 2026 |
This HII AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the stated cutoff date, use simplified assumptions, and can be wrong if business, market, policy, or valuation conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
