Bullish case
$62 to $67
More likely if EPS compounds near 10%, regulators approve timely recovery, data-center load supports incremental earnings, debt financing remains available, and investors value NI near 24x forward earnings.
NiSource Inc. research snapshot
NI AI Stock Analysis
NI AI stock analysis currently reads NiSource as a regulated gas and electric utility with improving earnings visibility, a large 2026 to 2030 capital plan, and an added data-center power-demand option through NIPSCO in Indiana. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, NI traded at $47.49 with verified market capitalization near $22.77 billion. The analysis is constructive for business durability, but valuation depends on rate recovery, debt funding, customer bill tolerance, and successful execution of data-center infrastructure. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$47.49
Market cap
$22.77 billion verified and reported
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Stable regulated utility growth story with leverage, rate-case, and execution risk
Trend status
Constructive above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but close to the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. NI has long public history, SEC filings, company earnings releases, investor materials, stock quote pages, third-party financial databases, and technical data sources.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating regulated utility earnings as automatically low risk. The reverse check asks whether leverage, rising capital needs, regulatory lag, storm or safety costs, and data-center project execution can offset the stable franchise story.
- ai Confidence
- High for price, share count, market-cap math, TTM revenue, net income, cash, debt, EPS, and moving-average data. Medium for forecast ranges because utility multiples, interest rates, allowed returns, and financing conditions can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The customer need and regulated asset base are durable, but per-share value creation depends on disciplined capital spending, constructive regulation, cost recovery, and avoiding equity or debt funding that erodes returns.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NiSource serves nearly four million natural gas and electric customers across six states through Columbia Gas and NIPSCO, making customer demand essential and recurring. | High |
| Moat | The moat is mainly regulatory and physical: exclusive service territories, pipes, wires, grid assets, and local operating scale. It is not a brand or network-effect moat. | High |
| Management | Management under CEO Lloyd Yates is focused on regulated investment, dividend growth, and data-center infrastructure, but capital allocation should be judged by rate recovery, debt control, and per-share returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $6.82 billion and TTM net income was about $962.5 million, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 8.2% year over year to $2.36 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $47.49, NI traded near 23.51x TTM EPS, 2.36x book value, 3.31x sales, and a 2.36% dividend yield. The audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull areas near $38, $53, and $65. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NI was above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with support around $47, deeper support near $44 to $45, and resistance around the $49 to $50 recent high area. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include high debt, regulatory lag, construction costs, customer affordability pressure, power-market rules, gas safety incidents, weather, and financing conditions. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward price ranges and chart timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NI has a durable regulated utility base, but the current price already reflects a stronger growth narrative and leaves less room for funding or regulatory disappointment. | Medium |
NI AI stock forecast
NI AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The NI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $47.49 price, the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint near $2.045, and management commentary around long-term adjusted EPS growth. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $38, a base area near $53, and a bullish area near $65 before dividends.
Base case
$50 to $55
More likely if EPS grows near 7%, the $28 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan earns allowed returns, dividend growth remains covered, and NI is valued near 21x forward earnings.
Bearish case
$36 to $40
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, construction costs run high, data-center contracts underdeliver, regulators delay recovery, or leverage forces less attractive financing.
NI AI technical analysis
NI AI Technical Analysis
NI AI technical analysis is positive but not stretched enough to ignore risk controls. As of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, third-party quote and technical pages showed NI above its 50-day and 200-day averages, with RSI near neutral and the stock trading below the late June 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.49 | The July 7, 2026 market close from StockAnalysis was used as the current NI price for the July 8, 2026 page. |
| Near support | $47.00 to $47.25 | This area sits near the 20-day to 50-day trend zone and recent pullback lows after the June high. |
| Structural support | $44.50 to $45.00 | The 200-day moving average area is the deeper support zone that would test the longer utility-growth trend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $47.23 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average at $47.23 in the July 2026 check. |
| 200-day moving average | About $44.91 | The stock traded above its 200-day moving average, keeping the intermediate trend constructive unless support breaks. |
| Near resistance | $49.00 to $50.00 | Resistance sits near the 52-week high area, with NiSource investor data showing a 52-week high of $49.21. |
| 52-week range | $38.45 to $49.21 | NI was near the upper part of its one-year range, so valuation and interest-rate sensitivity matter more than at prior lows. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51 | Momentum was roughly neutral, which supports trend continuation only if price can hold above the moving-average cluster. |
| Volume | Watch confirmation above $49 | A breakout carries more weight if volume rises above recent averages and utility-sector rate pressure does not worsen. |
| Volatility | Lower beta utility volatility | StockAnalysis showed a beta near 0.54, but rate moves, earnings, weather, and regulatory news can still reset utility valuations. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44.50 | A decisive close below the 200-day area would weaken the current NI technical framework. |
NI AI trading strategy
NI AI Trading Strategy Framework
The NI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated utility stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, Treasury yields, earnings releases, rate-case updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Trend-following setup
Watch for NI to hold the $47.00 to $47.25 support area and clear the $49.00 to $50.00 resistance zone on stronger volume. Confirmation should include stable Treasury yields and no negative update on regulatory recovery or data-center infrastructure.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $44.50 should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If NI pulls back toward $44.50 to $45.00 without a guidance cut, compare dividend yield, adjusted EPS guidance, allowed-return outlook, debt funding, and utility-sector multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because utilities can reprice when rates, equity issuance, regulatory orders, or construction costs change.
Fundamental monitor
Track 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, Columbia Gas and NIPSCO rate outcomes, data-center load commitments, capital plan timing, debt metrics, dividend coverage, cash flow, safety performance, and customer affordability pressure.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage or multiple expansion rather than authorized returns, project execution, and funded per-share growth.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
NiSource is paid to deliver regulated natural gas and electric service. Customers pay because energy delivery is essential, local networks are hard to replace, and utilities earn returns on approved infrastructure investment.
Moat
The moat comes from regulation, service territories, pipelines, wires, grid assets, safety know-how, and local operating scale. Brand power is limited, switching costs are structural, and network effects are not the core advantage.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if rate recovery lags capital spending, debt costs rise, construction overruns damage returns, gas safety issues recur, data-center load fails to meet expectations, or regulators push affordability over allowed returns.
Management
Management should be judged by capital discipline, regulatory outcomes, safety, dividend coverage, debt metrics, and whether the data-center opportunity creates per-share earnings rather than only a larger asset base.
Industry trend
NI sits inside grid modernization, gas infrastructure replacement, electrification, data-center power demand, and utility decarbonization. These are durable trends, but value creation depends on regulation, funding costs, and customer bills.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 23.51x TTM EPS and 2.36x book value, NI needs continued execution. Margin of safety improves if the stock retreats toward support while guidance, rate recovery, balance-sheet access, and project economics stay intact.
Source-backed data
NI Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NI price | $47.49 market close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.77 billion verified as $47.49 x 479.44 million shares, matching reported market cap within 0.01% | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 479.44 million shares from StockAnalysis, cross-checked against Macrotrends quarterly shares near 0.481 billion | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $6.82 billion, cross-validated with Macrotrends at $6.822 billion | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $962.5 million from StockAnalysis, cross-validated with Macrotrends near $965.0 million | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $2.36 billion and diluted EPS of $1.06, with revenue up 8.2% year over year | TradingView SEC 10-Q summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $71.9 million cash and $16.81 billion total debt from StockAnalysis; StockTitan also reported $71.9 million cash and about $15.5 billion long-term debt | StockAnalysis and StockTitan | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $2.02 to $2.07 reaffirmed in the full-year 2025 results release | NiSource full-year 2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Capital plan | Approximately $28.0 billion planned investment from 2026 to 2030, including nearly $7.0 billion tied to strategic data-center infrastructure | NiSource full-year 2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Customer base | Nearly four million natural gas and electric customers in six states under Columbia Gas and NIPSCO brands | NiSource investors | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $47.23, 200-day moving average $44.91, RSI 51.27, beta 0.54 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $38.45 low to $49.21 high from NiSource investor stock data | NiSource stock performance | July 8, 2026 |
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This NI AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a rating, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold NiSource stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, valuation math, and technical context as of July 8, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, financing, weather, or market multiples change.