NiSource Inc. research snapshot
NI AI stock analysis currently reads NiSource as a regulated gas and electric utility with a durable customer base, a roughly $28 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan, and an emerging data-center power-demand option through NIPSCO in Indiana. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NI closed at $44.43 on July 31 with verified market capitalization near $21.30 billion. The stock has pulled back about 10% from its late-June peak of $49.21 and now trades below its key moving averages ahead of the August 5 Q2 earnings report. The analysis stays constructive on business durability, but valuation and momentum now depend on rate recovery, debt funding, customer bill tolerance, and execution of the data-center infrastructure. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$44.43
Market cap
$21.30 billion verified and reported
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Durable regulated utility with improved growth guidance, now more reasonably priced after a pullback
Trend status
Weak below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a late-June peak, consolidating near the July lows
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NiSource serves roughly 3.3 million natural gas and about 500,000 electric customers across six states through Columbia Gas and NIPSCO, making customer demand essential and recurring. | High |
| Moat | The moat is mainly regulatory and physical: exclusive service territories, pipes, wires, grid assets, and local operating scale. It is not a brand or network-effect moat. | High |
| Management | Management under CEO Lloyd Yates is executing a roughly $28 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan with a data-center growth program, but capital allocation should be judged by rate recovery, debt control, and per-share returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $6.82 billion and TTM net income was about $962.5 million, while Q1 2026 EPS rose to $1.06 and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 was reaffirmed. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.43, NI traded near 22x TTM EPS, 2.20x book value, 3.12x sales, and a 2.70% dividend yield, with a sell-side average price target of $51.17. The audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull areas near $35, $50, and $63. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NI traded below its 50-day ($46.69) and 200-day ($45.22) moving averages after peaking at $49.21 in late June, with near support around $44.30 to $44.50 and structural support near $42.50 to $43.00. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include high debt, negative free cash flow, regulatory lag, construction and financing costs for data-center assets, customer affordability pressure, and interest-rate sensitivity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward price ranges and chart timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NI has a durable regulated utility base, but the current price still embeds continued EPS growth, and the next test is the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5. | Medium |
NI AI stock forecast
The NI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $44.43 price, 2026 adjusted EPS estimates near $2.06, and management guidance for 8% to 9% long-term adjusted EPS growth. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $33 to $38, a base area near $48 to $53, and a bullish area near $60 to $66 before dividends.
$60 to $66
More likely if EPS compounds near 9% to 10%, regulators approve timely recovery, data-center contracts under the Amazon and Alphabet agreements deliver, financing stays available, and investors hold NI near 23x forward earnings.
$48 to $53
More likely if EPS grows near 7% to 8%, the roughly $28 billion 2026 to 2030 capital plan earns allowed returns, dividend growth remains covered, and NI is valued near 20x forward earnings.
$33 to $38
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, construction costs run high, data-center contracts underdeliver or are delayed, regulators restrict recovery, or equity and debt funding dilute per-share value.
NI AI technical analysis
NI AI technical analysis reads weak but not broken. As of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NI closed at $44.43 on July 31, below its 20-day ($46.16), 50-day ($46.69), and 200-day ($45.22) moving averages, after peaking at $49.21 in late June. RSI near 36 and the July lows define the current range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.43 | The July 31, 2026 market close from StockAnalysis was used as the current NI price. |
| Near support | $44.30 to $44.50 | This is the July pullback zone; the July 30 low was $44.32 and the stock closed near the lows on July 31. |
| Structural support | $42.50 to $43.00 | This was the main trading base through the second half of 2025 and early 2026, where lows clustered most often over the past year. |
| 20-day moving average | About $46.16 | The shortest trend average now sits overhead and must be reclaimed for momentum to stabilize. |
| 50-day moving average | About $46.69 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average at $46.69 in the August 2026 check. |
| 200-day moving average | About $45.22 | Reclaiming this level would be the first step toward repairing the intermediate trend. |
| Near resistance | $46.00 to $47.00 | This combines the 20-day and 50-day averages with early-to-mid-July supply. |
| 52-week high | $49.21 | Set on June 29, 2026; a return would require renewed data-center and rate momentum. |
| 52-week range | $38.45 to $49.21 | NI sits in the upper half of the one-year range despite the pullback, so valuation and interest-rate sensitivity still matter. |
| Momentum | RSI near 36 | Momentum is weak and approaching oversold, which often precedes a bounce only with volume and a catalyst behind it. |
| Volume | Watch for stabilization | Late-July down days brought above-average volume; a reclaim of the averages needs rising volume on the upside. |
| Volatility | Lower beta utility volatility | StockAnalysis showed a beta near 0.54, but rate moves, the August 5 earnings release, weather, and regulatory news can still reset utility valuations. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44.30 | A decisive close below the July lows opens the $42.50 to $43.00 structural support; a close back above $45.22 would neutralize the weak read. |
NI AI trading strategy
The NI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated utility stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, the August 5 Q2 2026 results, Treasury yields, rate-case and data-center updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for NI to reclaim and hold the 200-day ($45.22) and then 50-day ($46.69) moving averages on stronger volume, with stable Treasury yields and no negative update on regulatory recovery or data-center execution. The July lows should hold while this develops.
A failed recovery followed by a close below $44.30 should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If NI holds the $44.30 to $44.50 zone or pulls toward $42.50 to $43.00 without a guidance cut, compare dividend yield, adjusted EPS guidance, allowed-return outlook, debt funding, and utility-sector multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because utilities can reprice when rates, equity issuance, regulatory orders, or construction costs change.
Track the August 5, 2026 Q2 results, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, Columbia Gas and NIPSCO rate outcomes, Amazon and Alphabet data-center commitments, capital plan timing, debt metrics, dividend coverage, cash flow, and customer affordability pressure.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends mainly on leverage or multiple expansion rather than authorized returns, project execution, and funded per-share growth.
Investment research summary
NiSource is paid to deliver regulated natural gas and electric service. Customers pay because energy delivery is essential, local networks are hard to replace, and utilities earn returns on approved infrastructure investment.
The moat comes from regulation, service territories, pipelines, wires, grid assets, safety know-how, and local operating scale. Brand power is limited, switching costs are structural, and network effects are not the core advantage.
The thesis fails if rate recovery lags capital spending, debt costs rise, construction overruns damage returns, data-center assets cost more or deliver less than planned, gas safety issues recur, or regulators push affordability over allowed returns.
Management should be judged by capital discipline, regulatory outcomes, safety, dividend coverage, debt metrics, and whether the data-center program creates per-share earnings rather than only a larger asset base.
NI sits inside grid modernization, gas infrastructure replacement, electrification, data-center power demand, and utility decarbonization. These are durable trends, but value creation depends on regulation, funding costs, and customer bills.
At about 22x TTM EPS and a 2.70% dividend yield, NI still embeds continued 8% to 10% EPS growth. The pullback improved the risk-reward modestly; margin of safety improves if the stock holds the $42.50 to $43.00 zone with guidance, rate recovery, and balance-sheet access intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NI price | $44.43 market close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $21.30 billion verified as $44.43 x 479.44 million shares, matching reported market cap within 0.01% | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 479.44 million shares from StockAnalysis, cross-checked against Macrotrends quarterly shares near 0.481 billion | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $6.82 billion, cross-validated with Macrotrends at $6.822 billion | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $962.5 million from StockAnalysis statistics, with the financials page showing $965.4 million | StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY 2025 results | GAAP net income of $929.5 million or $1.95 diluted EPS; adjusted EPS of $1.90 | NiSource full-year 2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $2.36 billion and diluted EPS of $1.06, with revenue up 8.2% and EPS up 6.0% year over year | TradingView SEC 10-Q summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $71.9 million cash and $16.81 billion total debt, with net debt of $16.73 billion or about $34.91 per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $2.02 to $2.07 reaffirmed, with 8% to 9% long-term consolidated adjusted EPS growth and 9% to 11% rate base growth expected from 2026 through 2033 | NiSource full-year 2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital plan | Approximately $28.0 billion planned investment from 2026 to 2030, including nearly $7.0 billion tied to strategic data-center infrastructure | NiSource full-year 2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 16 analysts with an average price target of $51.17 (range $43 to $55) and a 9.29% three-year EPS growth forecast | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day moving average $46.16, 50-day moving average $46.69, 200-day moving average $45.22, RSI 36.32, beta 0.54 | StockAnalysis statistics and price history | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $38.45 low to $49.21 high, with the high set on June 29, 2026 | StockAnalysis price history | August 2, 2026 |
This NI AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a rating, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold NiSource stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, valuation math, and technical context as of August 2, 2026, and they can be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, financing, weather, data-center execution, or market multiples change.
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