Morningstar, Inc. research snapshot
MORN AI stock analysis currently reads Morningstar Inc. as a high-quality financial data and investment research platform with pricing power, recurring subscription revenue, and a founder-led governance structure trading at a reasonable valuation. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $155.85, market capitalization was about $5.93 billion, and the main question was whether the 50%+ drawdown from the 52-week high of $316.71 represents a buying opportunity in a durable franchise or reflects genuine headwinds in asset management demand and credit rating competition. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$155.85
Market cap
$5.93 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality business at a reasonable valuation
Trend status
Strong downtrend from 52-week highs, near support
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Morningstar sells investment research, data, ratings, and wealth management services to institutions and individuals on a recurring subscription basis, with high retention and pricing power. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust built over 40+ years, switching costs from embedded data and analytics workflows, regulatory status as an NRSRO credit ratings agency, and scale advantages in fund data coverage. | High |
| Management | Founder Joe Mansueto owns 39.7% and serves as executive chairman. CEO Kunal Kapoor has been in place since 2017. Capital allocation has been disciplined with sensible acquisitions (PitchBook, DBRS, Sustainalytics). Key-person risk is mitigated by a deep management team. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2024 revenue was $2.28 billion, with TTM revenue at $2.51 billion. Revenue has compounded at a mid-to-high single digit rate. Profit margin was 16.06% TTM with ROE at 30.66%. Operating income was $484.8M in FY2024. | High |
| Valuation | The stock traded at 15.95x TTM earnings and 13.09x TTM free cash flow at the cutoff, which is below both the historical average and financial data peers. P/FCF of 13x and FCF yield of 7.6% suggest a reasonable entry point if the business is not structurally impaired. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | MORN is in a strong downtrend, down about 51% from the 52-week high of $316.71. The stock is trading near the low end of its range but above the 52-week low of $141.49. Momentum indicators are oversold. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are debt leverage (187% debt/equity), competition to PitchBook from Bloomberg and CB Insights, credit rating market concentration, sensitivity to asset management industry trends, and ESG rating politicization. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for the business model, financial filings, market cap math, and competitive position. Moderate confidence for near-term price direction given the steep downtrend. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-high certainty. Morningstar has a durable business model and reasonable valuation, but the steep drawdown requires conviction that the business fundamentals are intact. | Medium-high |
MORN AI stock forecast
The MORN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $155.85 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires revenue acceleration from PitchBook data cross-selling, credit ratings growth, and a return to margin expansion. The base case assumes mid-single-digit organic growth with stable margins. The bearish case assumes competitive pressure, client attrition, or further multiple compression.
$250 to $327
More likely if Morningstar sustains 10%+ revenue growth from PitchBook and credit, expands margins through operating leverage, and the market re-rates the stock toward a 20-22x forward P/E consistent with historical financial data peer multiples.
$175 to $210
More likely if revenue grows at 6-8%, margins stabilize near current levels, debt is gradually reduced, and the stock trades at a 16-18x forward P/E reflecting a mature but steady grower.
$98 to $130
More likely if PitchBook growth slows, credit rating revenue disappoints, ESG backlash impacts Sustainalytics, leverage becomes a concern, or the market applies a 10-12x P/E consistent with a low-growth financial services firm.
MORN AI technical analysis
MORN AI technical analysis starts from the $155.85 close used for this July 12 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock in a strong downtrend with RSI deeply oversold and the stock trading near its 52-week low. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $155.85 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $141 to $145 | The 52-week low area. A break below this level would signal further downside risk. |
| Secondary support | $130 to $135 | The next support zone below the 52-week low, based on prior trading ranges from 2023. |
| Near resistance | $175 to $185 | The area between the 20-day and 50-day moving average. Breakout would need volume confirmation and trend reversal signals. |
| Key resistance | $210 to $220 | The 200-day moving average area. A return to this level would represent a meaningful trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI below 30, deeply oversold | The RSI was below 30 at the cutoff, indicating deeply oversold conditions on short and medium timeframes. |
| Volume | About 434,000 shares (below average) | Volume was slightly below the 523,000 average, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting. |
| Volatility | High. 52-week range of $141 to $317 | Position sizing should account for the stock dropping over 50% from its high within a year. |
| Invalidation | Close below $141, then sustained break below $130 | A close below the 52-week low at $141 would invalidate the support framework. A sustained break below $130 would indicate structural impairment. |
MORN AI trading strategy
The MORN AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for MORN to stabilize above the $141 support level with improving volume, a bullish RSI divergence, and a close above the 20-day moving average before treating a reversal as confirmed.
Do not buy the dip solely because the stock has fallen 50%. A failed bounce at support or a new low below $141 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If MORN holds above $141 and fundamental data confirms stable revenue growth, leverage reduction, and intact margins, a long-term position could be built gradually using the 13x P/FCF as a reference.
Define maximum position size based on portfolio risk. Do not average down without fresh evidence that the business thesis remains intact.
Track Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, PitchBook revenue growth, Morningstar DBRS credit rating revenue, debt levels, free cash flow conversion, and share repurchase activity.
Lower the rating if organic revenue growth falls below 5%, gross margins contract, or leverage continues to increase.
Investment research summary
Morningstar sells independent investment data, research, ratings, and wealth management tools to asset managers, advisors, and individual investors on a subscription and transaction-based model.
The moat is brand credibility built over 40 years, embedded workflow tools (Morningstar Direct, PitchBook), NRSRO credit rating regulatory status, and comprehensive fund/asset coverage database that competitors cannot easily replicate.
The thesis can fail if PitchBook growth stalls against Bloomberg and CB Insights, credit rating market share declines, asset management industry consolidation reduces the client base, debt leverage causes financial strain, or founder Mansueto reduces involvement.
Founder Joe Mansueto (39.7% ownership, executive chairman) aligns capital allocation with long-term value. CEO Kunal Kapoor has led major acquisitions (PitchBook, DBRS, Sustainalytics) and managed the transition from founder-led operations.
Morningstar sits at the intersection of investment data, private capital markets intelligence, credit ratings, and ESG analytics. The demand for independent investment research and data is secularly growing, but the industry faces pricing pressure and competition from AI-native alternatives.
At 15.95x TTM earnings and 13x TTM free cash flow with a 7.6% FCF yield, the valuation is below the 5-year average and meaningfully cheaper than financial data peers (MCO, SPGI, MSCI). The margin of safety is reasonable if the business is not structurally impaired.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORN price | $155.85 close | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.93 billion, verified as $155.85 x 38.03M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.51 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $402.8 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2024 revenue | $2.275 billion | Morningstar 2024 Annual Report and Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2024 net income | $369.9 million | Morningstar 2024 Annual Report | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $452.81 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $532.2 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt to equity | 187.15% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.95x TTM PE, 13.09x TTM P/FCF, 7.64% FCF yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Founder ownership | 39.7% held by Joe Mansueto | Morningstar 2024 Annual Report and Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
This MORN AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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