Morningstar, Inc. research snapshot
MORN AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Morningstar Inc. as a high-quality financial data and investment research franchise that is improving and trades at a reasonable valuation after a sharp post-earnings recovery. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. On August 3, 2026, the stock closed at $198.93, up 3.30% from the $192.57 close on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $7.46 billion, computed as $198.93 times 37.51 million shares and verified against the reported figure. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, beat expectations with revenue of $663.2 million, up 9.6% year over year, GAAP EPS of $2.83 versus the $2.47 estimate, adjusted EPS of $3.10 versus about $2.83, pre-tax income of $147 million at a 22.2% margin, and net income of $107.8 million for the quarter. Shares rose about 11.6% on the report and stayed firm into the August 4 cutoff, trading above the 200-day moving average near $188.66 and above the 50-day average near $173.31 while approaching overbought with a 14-day RSI near 68.65 on StockAnalysis.com. The stock is still down about 28% from the 52-week high of $276.43 and down 26.98% over the trailing 52 weeks, so the debate is whether the momentum reflects a durable re-rating or a bear-market bounce in a business facing AI disruption. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$198.93
Market cap
$7.46 billion
AI score
77 / 100
Rating
Quality franchise improving, reasonably valued after the post-earnings recovery
Trend status
Holding above the 200-day moving average near $188.66 after the post-earnings rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Morningstar sells independent investment data, research, ratings, indexes, and wealth tools on a subscription model, with license-based revenue around 69% of the total, gross margin near 62%, and return on equity near 32%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust built over 40 years, switching costs in embedded workflows such as Morningstar Direct and PitchBook, NRSRO credit rating regulatory status, scale in fund and private-market data coverage, and a growing indexes business after the CRSP rebrand to Morningstar Market Indexes in July 2026. | High |
| Management | Founder Joe Mansueto is executive chairman with insiders owning about 49.34% of the company. CEO Kunal Kapoor has run the business since 2017, shares were bought back aggressively over the past year with a 6.52% reduction, and the dividend grew about 9.89% to $2.00. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $2.57 billion up 9.33%, TTM net income is $421.6 million, and Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.6% with GAAP EPS beating by 14.6%, pre-tax income of $147 million, and net income of $107.8 million. Free cash flow was $497.5 million on a TTM basis. | High |
| Valuation | At $198.93 the stock trades at about 18.94x TTM earnings, 15.43x forward earnings, 15.00x TTM free cash flow, and 2.91x sales, below its own 5-year average and cheaper than peers such as Moody's, S&P Global, and MSCI. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | MORN is in a recovering trend after the Q2 beat, trading at $198.93 above the 200-day moving average near $188.66 and above the 50-day average near $173.31, with 14-day RSI near 68.65 on StockAnalysis.com, strong but approaching overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are AI-driven price competition in research data, PitchBook competition from Bloomberg and CB Insights, debt of $1,905 million at 1.86x equity, sensitivity to asset management industry trends, and the possibility that the rebound is a bear-market bounce. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for the business model, SEC filings, Q2 2026 results, market cap math, and valuation ratios that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, the earnings release, StockStory, and Simply Wall St. Moderate confidence for near-term price direction given the fast rally. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-high. The franchise is durable and improving, but the price has already recovered much of the drawdown, so conviction now depends on AI monetization, PitchBook growth, and margin expansion delivering on the improved expectations. | Medium-high |
MORN AI stock forecast
The MORN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $198.93 cutoff price and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $12.32. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained double-digit revenue growth and AI monetization, the base case assumes mid-to-high single digit growth with stable margins near the analyst consensus target of $236.67, and the bearish case assumes AI pricing pressure or a growth stall that compresses the multiple.
$265 to $300
More likely if Morningstar sustains double-digit revenue growth from PitchBook, indexes, and asset-based products, monetizes the Microsoft and Copilot integrations announced in June 2026, keeps margins expanding, and the market applies a 19-21x multiple to the FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus of $13.94.
$215 to $245
More likely if revenue grows 8-9%, margins hold near current levels, free cash flow conversion stays strong, debt is reduced gradually, and the stock trades near the analyst consensus target of $236.67 at a 17-18x forward P/E on the $12.32 FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate.
$150 to $185
More likely if AI disruption accelerates price competition in data, PitchBook growth stalls, credit rating revenue disappoints, leverage becomes a concern, or the market applies a 12-15x forward P/E consistent with a low-growth data vendor.
MORN AI technical analysis
MORN AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows a recovering trend after the Q2 2026 earnings beat. The stock closed at $198.93 on August 3, up 3.30% from the $192.57 close on July 31, above the 200-day moving average near $188.66 and above the 50-day average near $173.31. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $198.93 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 close, up 3.30% from the $192.57 close on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $188 to $193 | The 200-day moving average near $188.66 on StockAnalysis.com, with the $192.57 July 31 close overhead as a near-term pivot. |
| Next support | $173 to $177 | The 50-day moving average near $173.31 forms the main lower support cluster that held the recent pullback. |
| Key support | $141 to $145 | The 52-week low area at $141.49. A sustained break below this level would invalidate the recovery thesis. |
| Near resistance | $201 to $210 | The August 3 intraday high of $201.00 and the zone toward the analyst low target of $220, where profit-taking could appear. |
| Key resistance | $220 to $240 | The analyst median target of $230 and the consensus target of $236.67, which mark the next meaningful overhead zone. |
| 52-week high | $276.43 | The high end of the 52-week range on StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance, still about 28% above the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 68.65 | The 14-day RSI was about 68.65 on StockAnalysis.com at the cutoff, strong but approaching overbought. |
| Volume | Moderate on the August 3 gain | Volume on August 3 was about 339,501 shares versus a 20-day average near 423,946, showing the move was not heavily confirmed by volume. |
| Volatility | Moderate to high | Beta is near 1.01 with a wide 52-week range of $141.49 to $276.43 and an August 3 intraday range of $195.51 to $201.00. Position sizing should account for multi-percent daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $188, then sustained break below $173 | A close below the 200-day moving average near $188 would weaken the recovery. A sustained break below $173 to $177 would signal the rally failed. |
MORN AI trading strategy
The MORN AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it reflects the higher uncertainty after a sharp post-earnings move.
Look for MORN to hold above the 200-day moving average near $188 and the $188 to $193 support zone on normal volume, with the 14-day RSI pulling back from the overbought zone near 68, before treating the recovery as confirmed.
Do not chase a stock up about 12% in under two weeks without a pullback. A close below $188 reduces confidence, and a sustained break below $173 to $177 invalidates the setup.
If MORN pulls back to the $173 to $177 zone around the 50-day moving average and fundamentals confirm continued growth, a buyer could accumulate gradually with the $188 level as the first check and $173 as the invalidation line.
Keep position size small because the stock is still down about 28% from its high and the AI disruption debate is unresolved. Do not average down below $173 without fresh evidence.
Track the Q3 2026 report expected around late October 2026, PitchBook and indexes revenue growth, AI product monetization, credit rating revenue, free cash flow conversion, debt reduction, and share buyback activity.
Lower the rating if revenue growth falls below 8%, margins contract, leverage rises further from the $1,905 million level, or a large customer shift to AI-native alternatives appears.
Investment research summary
Morningstar sells independent investment data, research, ratings, indexes, and wealth management tools to asset managers, advisors, and individual investors, mostly on recurring subscriptions. Around 69% of revenue is license-based, which is sticky and predictable.
The moat is brand credibility built over more than 40 years, switching costs in embedded workflows such as Morningstar Direct and PitchBook, NRSRO credit rating regulatory status, scale in fund and private-market data coverage, and a growing indexes business after the CRSP rebrand to Morningstar Market Indexes in July 2026.
The thesis fails if AI-native tools commoditize investment data and research, PitchBook loses to Bloomberg and CB Insights, credit rating revenue declines, the $1.9 billion debt load and large goodwill become a drag, or the post-earnings rally proves to be a bear-market bounce.
Founder Joe Mansueto is executive chairman with insiders owning about 49.34%, aligning capital allocation with long-term value. CEO Kunal Kapoor has led the company since 2017, supported buybacks that cut shares 6.52% over the past year, and grew the dividend about 9.89% to $2.00.
Morningstar sits at the intersection of investment data, private capital intelligence, credit ratings, indexes, and ESG analytics. Demand for independent research is secular, but the industry faces pricing pressure from AI-native alternatives, which is both a threat and an opportunity through Microsoft and Copilot integrations.
At about 18.94x TTM earnings, 15.43x forward earnings, and 15.00x TTM free cash flow with a 6.66% FCF yield, MORN is below its 5-year average and cheaper than peers such as Moody's, S&P Global, and MSCI. The margin of safety is reasonable but thinner than at the 52-week low of $141.49.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORN price | $198.93 at the August 3, 2026 close, up 3.30% from the $192.57 July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $141.49 to $276.43 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.46 billion, verified as $198.93 x 37.51 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.57 billion, up 9.33% | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance statistics, cross-validated | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $421.6 million | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance statistics, cross-validated | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $663.2 million, up 9.6% year over year, beating the $648.7 million estimate | Morningstar Q2 2026 earnings release via StockStory, Simply Wall St, and StockAnalysis.com | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP EPS $2.83 versus $2.47 estimate; adjusted EPS $3.10 versus about $2.83 estimate | TheFly via TipRanks and StockStory via Yahoo Finance | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $2.446 billion and $374.2 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $497.5 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow, cross-validated with Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $523.8 million cash; $1,905 million total debt; net cash of -$1,381 million | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 18.94x TTM PE, 15.43x forward PE, 15.00x P/FCF, 6.66% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $236.67, median $230, low $220, high $260 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance analyst data | August 4, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | About 49.34% held by insiders, including founder Joe Mansueto | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This MORN AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
