Moody's Corporation research snapshot
MCO AI stock analysis reads Moody's Corporation as a high-quality credit ratings, research, data, and risk analytics franchise that delivered accelerating Q2 2026 results. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, MCO closed at $478.38 on July 31, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $82.85 billion using 173.18 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 22, delivered 15% revenue growth, a 25% rise in adjusted operating income, adjusted operating margin up 440 basis points to 55.3%, and adjusted diluted EPS up 31% to $4.68 against consensus near $4.25. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.50 to $17.00, raised share repurchase guidance to up to $3 billion, and raised the full-year issuance outlook to mid-single-digit growth. The caution is that MCO still trades at about 30.4x trailing GAAP EPS and 26.9x forward earnings, so the forecast depends on issuance staying healthy and the premium multiple holding. The analysis supports a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$478.38
Market cap
$82.85 billion verified market cap
AI score
79 / 100
Rating
High-quality ratings, data, analytics, and risk intelligence franchise with accelerating Q2 2026 results and a premium valuation
Trend status
Price above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 20-day moving average, with RSI near 48.6 in neutral territory
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Moody's sells credit ratings, research, data, KYC, insurance analytics, risk models, and workflow tools to issuers, investors, banks, insurers, public entities, and corporations, with TTM revenue near $8.16 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from ratings brand trust, regulated market position, a data estate covering more than 630 million entities, workflow integration, analytical IP, recurring subscriptions, and scale across global debt markets. | High |
| Management | CEO Rob Fauber is executing on decision intelligence and AI-enabled workflows, and the Q2 2026 beat with raised guidance shows discipline. Christina Kosmowski joining as CEO of Moody’s Analytics in late June adds an execution transition to monitor. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9% to $7.718 billion, TTM revenue is near $8.16 billion, and Q2 2026 delivered 15% revenue growth with adjusted EPS up 31% to $4.68. | High |
| Valuation | At $478.38, audited math shows about 30.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 26.9x forward earnings, 27.4x book value, 27.9x free cash flow per share, 10.2x sales, and a 0.86% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Daily indicators are mixed. Price holds above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but sits below the 20-day average, with RSI near 48.6 and ADX near 14.4 signaling a neutral trend after the pullback. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are debt issuance cycles, defaults, rating regulation, litigation, reputation damage, AI and data competition, high leverage, and premium multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, releases, and market data are fresh. Return confidence is lower because the bull case depends on future issuance and valuation durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MCO looks like a high-quality compounder, but not a low-expectation stock at the current price. The certainty is in the franchise more than in near-term upside. | Medium |
MCO AI stock forecast
The MCO AI stock forecast uses the $478.38 price reference, FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $16.94, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $333, a base value near $491, and a bullish value near $643 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 3%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 18x, 23x, and 27x over three years. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$625 to $660
More likely if global rated issuance stays strong, Moody's Analytics ARR keeps growing near high single digits, AI tools expand data demand, adjusted operating margin stays near or above 55%, buybacks reduce share count, and the market accepts a mid-20s to high-20s earnings multiple.
$475 to $510
More likely if adjusted EPS grows in the mid to high single digits, Moody's Analytics remains sticky, Moody's Investors Service follows a normal issuance cycle at mid-single-digit growth, and the stock holds around a 23x forward multiple.
$320 to $350
More likely if credit issuance weakens, default or regulatory headlines hurt ratings demand, AI competition pressures analytics pricing, lower-yield transaction mix keeps pressuring revenue, or investors compress MCO toward an 18x multiple.
MCO AI technical analysis
MCO AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. MCO closed at $478.38 on July 31, 2026, with StockAnalysis showing a 52-week range of $402.28 to $546.88, beta of 1.33, and 20-day average volume near 860,000 shares. Barchart showed the 50-day moving average near $467.94, the 100-day near $455.91, the 200-day near $471.76, the 20-day near $491.35, 14-day RSI near 48.56, 14-day ADX near 14.41, and 14-day historical volatility near 28.9%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $478.38 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for this static page. |
| Near resistance | $482 to $491 | The prior close near $482.26 and the 20-day moving average near $491.35 cap the immediate upside. |
| Major resistance | $547 to $559 | This zone includes the 52-week high of $546.88 and the analyst target reference near $558.81. |
| Moving-average support | $468 to $476 | The 50-day moving average near $467.94 and the 200-day moving average near $471.76 form the main trend support band. |
| Deeper support | $456 | The 100-day moving average near $455.91 sits below the 200-day and would be the next test if the pullback extends. |
| 52-week low zone | $402 to $410 | This area spans the 52-week low and would matter only if the premium multiple unwinds sharply. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48.56, ADX near 14.41 | Momentum is neutral after the pullback. ADX below 15 suggests the market is not showing a strong directional trend right now. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 860,000 shares | Volume was near 844,000 on July 31, 2026. Follow-through on a reclaim of the 20-day average would need volume support. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.33, 14-day historical volatility near 28.9% | The stock can move more than the broad market despite the defensive perception of the ratings franchise. |
| Invalidation | Close below $456 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $456, and then below the 200-day near $472, would weaken the technical setup. |
MCO AI trading strategy
The MCO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price trend, credit issuance, Moody's Analytics ARR, AI adoption, margin trend, buybacks, free cash flow, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for MCO to reclaim and hold the 20-day moving average near $491 and push toward the $482 to $491 zone with improving volume while Q3 results confirm revenue growth, margin strength, and Moody's Analytics ARR progress.
A close below the $456 to $472 moving-average band, a weak Q3 update, or evidence that AI and data competition is hurting pricing should reduce trend-following confidence.
If MCO pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day average near $468 to $476 without a thesis break, compare the entry price with the base scenario, rated issuance trends, adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, and buyback pace.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if regulatory risk, litigation risk, or a credit market slowdown is the reason for the pullback.
Track Moody's Analytics ARR, MIS rated issuance and transaction mix, recurring revenue share, adjusted operating margin, free cash flow, total debt, share repurchases, KYC and insurance growth, AI product adoption, and analyst EPS revisions.
Position sizing should reflect that MCO is a premium-quality company with premium-multiple downside if growth expectations reset.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Moody's because issuers, investors, banks, insurers, public entities, and corporations need trusted credit opinions, risk data, research, analytics, models, KYC tools, and workflow intelligence for high-stakes capital decisions.
The moat is built from ratings brand trust, regulatory embedding, historical default data, a data estate of more than 630 million entities, analyst networks, model IP, subscription workflows, and the cost of switching mission-critical risk systems.
The thesis fails if ratings reputation is damaged, regulators restrict economics, credit issuance drops for longer than expected, AI makes analytics more interchangeable, litigation costs rise, or the market stops paying a premium multiple.
Rob Fauber has framed Moody's around decision-grade connected intelligence and AI-enabled customer workflows, and the Q2 2026 beat with raised guidance supports that direction. The new Moody's Analytics CEO adds an operating transition to watch.
Long-term demand is supported by global debt markets, AI data center and infrastructure finance, private credit, insurance risk, KYC, compliance, digital finance, climate and cyber risk, and the need for clean data in AI systems.
At $478.38, the stock offers quality but limited valuation slack. Margin of safety depends on sustained high-single-digit revenue growth, strong adjusted margins, durable ratings economics, and continued capital returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCO quote reference | $478.38 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis MCO overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $82.85 billion calculated from $478.38 x 173.18 million shares, versus $82.85 billion reported, 0.01% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis market cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 173.18 million current shares outstanding | StockAnalysis MCO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | 15% revenue growth, 25% adjusted operating income growth, adjusted operating margin up 440 basis points to 55.3%, adjusted diluted EPS up 31% to $4.68 | Moody's Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $16.50 to $17.00, with the low end raised by $0.10 and a midpoint near $16.75, representing about 12% growth at the midpoint | Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2026 capital return guidance | Share repurchase guidance raised to up to $3 billion, with about $2.2 billion executed year to date | Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| Moody’s Analytics ARR | ARR near $3.7 billion, up nearly 9% year over year, with trailing 12-month retention near 95% and adjusted operating margin up 150 basis points to 33.6% | Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| MIS issuance and revenue | Rated issuance exceeded $2 trillion for the second consecutive quarter, up 33% year over year, with transaction revenue up 34% and adjusted operating margin of 68.3% | Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2026 free cash flow guidance | Adjusted to $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, with Q2 free cash flow of $688 million up 47% year over year | Moody's Q2 2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | $7.718 billion total revenue, up 8.89%, and $2.459 billion net income, with diluted EPS of $13.67 | StockAnalysis MCO financials and FY2025 10-K context | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | $8.16 billion revenue, $2.80 billion net income, and $15.74 diluted EPS over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis MCO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.496 billion cash and short-term investments, $7.522 billion total debt, and about $6.026 billion net debt at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis MCO balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | $3.319 billion operating cash flow, $352 million capital expenditures, and $2.967 billion free cash flow over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis MCO cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 30.38x trailing PE, 26.89x forward PE, 27.39x price to book, 27.92x price to free cash flow, 10.15x sales, and 0.86% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $558.81 across 24 analysts, low $500 and high $610, median $570 | StockAnalysis MCO forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 13 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis MCO forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $600 to $570, Citi $565 to $600, UBS $490 to $505, Mizuho $521 to $530, Stifel $550, BofA $565 to $580, Wells Fargo $590 to $597, Baird $557 to $572, Morgan Stanley $496 to $512, Clear Street $544 to $581, Barclays $550 to $575, Jefferies initiated at $610 | StockAnalysis MCO forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $8.29 billion with adjusted EPS $16.94, FY2027 revenue $8.89 billion with adjusted EPS $18.87 | StockAnalysis MCO forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.19 million shares short, 1.84% of shares outstanding, 3.07 days to cover | StockAnalysis MCO statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA near $467.94, 100-day MA near $455.91, 200-day MA near $471.76, 20-day MA near $491.35, 14-day RSI near 48.56, 14-day ADX near 14.41 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Range and beta reference | 52-week range of $402.28 to $546.88 and beta of 1.33 | StockAnalysis MCO overview | August 2, 2026 |
This MCO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, credit issuance, regulation, litigation, AI competition, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
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