Bullish case
$180 to $195
More likely if mortgage rates decline meaningfully, order growth converts into higher closings, incentive spending stabilizes, gross margin holds above 22%, and investors value MHO near 12x normalized earnings.
M/I Homes, Inc. research snapshot
MHO AI Stock Analysis
MHO AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads M/I Homes as a conservatively managed regional homebuilder with record second quarter order intake and one of the strongest balance sheets in public homebuilding. The stock traded at $146.33 on August 3, 2026 at 12:40 PM EDT, up 0.19 or 0.13% from the $146.13 prior close, after opening at $149.57 and fading back, with a market capitalization near $3.70 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with the $146.33 price times 25.28 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, delivered a second quarter record of 2,387 new contracts up 15%, a gross margin of 22% including $4 million of inventory charges, a pre-tax margin of 10%, and a record book value per share of $128, while revenue fell 9% to about $1.06 billion and net income fell to $79.1 million, or $3.02 per diluted share, from $121.2 million, or $4.42 per diluted share, a year earlier. Management maintained confidence in a solid 2026, supported by the S&P upgrade of the credit rating to BB+, $736 million of cash, no borrowings under the $900 million credit facility, a homebuilding debt-to-capital ratio of 18%, and a net debt-to-capital ratio of negative 1%. This page presents scenario ranges and verified data, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$146.33 at the August 3, 2026, 12:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.19 or 0.13% from the $146.13 prior close, after opening at $149.57 and trading within a $146.33 to $151.08 range
Market cap
$3.70 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Well-run regional homebuilder with record second quarter orders and a stronger balance sheet, offset by a 9% revenue decline and mortgage-rate-driven incentive pressure
Trend status
Holding above the 50-day moving average near $145.88 and the 200-day near $135.14, but below the 5-day near $150.22 and the 20-day near $148.80 after fading from an early $149.57 open
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. M/I Homes has consistent public filings, quarterly earnings releases, and credible but limited analyst coverage, with four analysts polled by S&P Global and a market capitalization near $3.70 billion. Trading volume is moderate at roughly 215,000 to 220,000 average shares a day, and the company does not host as many investor presentations as larger peers like D.R. Horton or Lennar. The August 4, 2026 full refresh re-fetched and re-validated the key figures: the $146.33 live reading on August 3, $3.70 billion market cap consistent with the price times 25.28 million shares, Q2 2026 results, and the balance sheet figures of $735,941 thousand total cash, $949,305 thousand total debt, and $3,227,420 thousand shareholders equity at June 30, 2026, which matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON, and the Q2 2026 earnings release.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is overweighting one record quarter of new contracts while mortgage rates near 7% and incentives stay elevated. The reverse check asks whether record orders at 78% spec mix with mortgage rate buydowns can translate into stable margins, whether the southern region carrying 60% of the land position can hold up if Florida and Texas soften, and whether the stock at roughly 12.4x trailing earnings and 10.8x forward earnings leaves room for disappointment. The refresh also checks the mirror-image bias of treating a single order record as a reason to chase: the stock opened near $149.57 on August 3 and faded to $146.33, below its 5-day average near $150.22 and 20-day average near $148.80.
- ai Confidence
- High for filings, market data, Q2 2026 results, balance sheet math, and valuation ratios that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q2 2026 earnings release during the August 4, 2026 refresh. StockAnalysis.com statistics report total debt near $1.00 billion while the Q2 2026 earnings release shows total debt of $949,305 thousand with $696,939 thousand in homebuilding debt and $252,366 thousand in financial services notes payable bank, a difference that reflects lease and classification treatment; this page uses the earnings release figures as primary. Medium for forecast scenarios because homebuilding earnings are sensitive to mortgage rates, incentives, regional supply, and buyer sentiment that can shift within a quarter.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. MHO is a well-run regional operator with a strong balance sheet and improving order momentum, but the stock faces a challenging rate backdrop, earnings are still declining year over year, and the relatively small market cap and lower trading volume add liquidity risk that larger-cap homebuilders do not carry.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | M/I Homes builds and sells single-family homes and attached townhomes across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Tennessee, with a Q2 2026 pre-tax margin of 10%, a return on equity of 10%, and record second quarter new contracts of 2,387. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from regional land positions, local market knowledge, a 50-year brand in the Midwest, a vertically integrated model with in-house mortgage and title services that captured 96% of MHO business in Q2 2026, and a land position of about 49,000 owned and controlled lots near a five-year supply. | Medium |
| Management | Robert Schottenstein has led the company for decades, and the founding family remains involved. Capital allocation is conservative, with homebuilding debt-to-capital of 18%, no borrowings under the $900 million credit facility, a $50 million second quarter buyback, and $120 million left under the current authorization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue fell about 9% to $1.06 billion and net income fell about 35% to $79.1 million, while new contracts rose 15% to a second quarter record of 2,387 and the gross margin of 22% excluding inventory charges approached 22.5%, slightly better than the first quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At $146.33, MHO traded near 12.4x trailing EPS, 10.8x forward EPS, 1.14x book value, 18.9x free cash flow, and 0.87x sales, based on the August 4, 2026 data cutoff snapshots. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock held above the 50-day moving average near $145.88 and the 200-day near $135.14 but below the 5-day near $150.22 and 20-day near $148.80, reflecting a pullback from an early open near $149.57. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include mortgage rate sensitivity with 30-year rates near 7%, persistent mortgage rate buydowns and incentives, regional housing supply and affordability in Florida and Texas, cancellation rates, and lower trading liquidity compared to large-cap builders. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited financial math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q2 2026 earnings release. Lower for price outcomes because homebuilder results respond quickly to rate and sentiment changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. MHO offers a solid regional homebuilding business with record order momentum and a very strong balance sheet at a reasonable valuation, but the macro backdrop and cyclical sensitivity demand a margin of safety. | Medium-low |
MHO AI stock forecast
MHO AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The MHO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $146.33 August 3, 2026 reading and the $12.35 FY2026 consensus EPS estimate. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $72, a base area near $139, and a bullish area near $187, using EPS growth of negative 6%, 4%, and 8% and exit multiples of 7x, 10x, and 12x over three years. The range is wide because MHO combines a strong balance sheet and improving orders with high sensitivity to mortgage rates and incentive spending.
Base case
$130 to $150
More likely if EPS compounds at low single digits from the $12.35 FY2026 estimate, the company holds gross margins near 22%, share buybacks continue, and the market keeps the stock near 10x earnings.
Bearish case
$60 to $85
More likely if affordability worsens, mortgage rates stay near 7%, incentives rise further, cancellations increase, average selling prices keep falling, and the market compresses MHO toward a 7x earnings multiple.
MHO AI technical analysis
MHO AI Technical Analysis
MHO AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed the intraday reading at $146.33 on August 3, above the 50-day moving average near $145.88 and the 200-day near $135.14 but below the 5-day near $150.22 and the 20-day near $148.80. The stock opened near $149.57 and faded through the session, leaving the short-term averages overhead. Volume was near average, 14-day RSI sat near 47 on Barchart and 48 on StockAnalysis.com, and the 52-week range of $116.78 to $163.66 provides the broad framework for support and resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $146.33 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.19 or 0.13% from the $146.13 prior close after opening at $149.57; the reported $3.70 billion market cap matches the price times 25.28 million shares outstanding. |
| Near resistance | $149 to $151 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $148.80 and the 5-day near $150.22 on August 3, with the session open at $149.57 and intraday high of $151.08 forming an overhead band. |
| Near support | $145 to $146 | The 50-day moving average near $145.88 on Barchart and $145.89 on StockAnalysis.com sits just below the August 3 price and is the first support band. |
| Deeper support | $135 to $140 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $135.14 and the 100-day near $136.04 on August 3, forming a deep support cluster near the current price floor. |
| Long-term resistance | $160 to $164 | The 52-week high is $163.66. Breaking above this level with volume would be a strong bullish signal. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $150.22, 20-day $148.80, 50-day $145.88, 100-day $136.04, 200-day $135.14 | The stock is above the 50-day and 200-day but below the 5-day and 20-day, a neutral-to-cautious technical posture after the August 3 fade. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 47 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 47.45 and StockAnalysis.com near 48.09, a neutral reading with a slight bearish tilt given the fade from the open. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 215,000 to 220,000 shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 219,730 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 215,270, with the 5-day near 249,279, so the pullback has occurred on near-average volume. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 29% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 28.81% and a 14-day average true range near $4.63, reflecting the cyclical nature of homebuilder stocks. |
| Invalidation | Close below $136, then $135 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $136.04 would weaken the intermediate posture. A move toward the 200-day near $135.14 or the 52-week low of $116.78 would imply a failed recovery. |
MHO AI trading strategy
MHO AI Trading Strategy Framework
The MHO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regional homebuilder. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, mortgage-rate data, earnings releases, position sizing, and defined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Watch for MHO to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $148.80 and the 5-day near $150.22 on volume above the 20-day average, then break through the $151 intraday high toward the 52-week high of $163.66. Confirmation improves if the next earnings report shows order growth continuing without a further rise in incentive spending.
A close below $136, or a trend confirmation failure after weaker order or margin data, should invalidate the near-term setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If MHO pulls back toward the $145 support area from the 50-day moving average without fundamental deterioration, compare the stock with book value per share of $128, free cash flow, land position quality, and inventory levels before considering a reversion entry.
Set a maximum loss rule before entry. Homebuilder stocks can gap lower on rate surprises or negative industry data.
Fundamental monitor
Track new contracts, cancellation rate, homes delivered, average closing price, homebuilding gross margin, SG&A ratio, backlog units and value, finished lot inventory, land purchases and development, cash flow, homebuilding debt to capital, buyback pace, and management commentary on mortgage rate buydowns, incentives, and market conditions.
Reduce confidence if order growth relies on increasing mortgage rate buydowns while gross margins and cash flow deteriorate. If you are building trading strategies, try the Pineify AI Trading Strategy Builder or Pine Script strategy generator.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
M/I Homes turns land acquisition, construction capability, regional market insight, and in-house mortgage and title services into homes for first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and empty-nesters across ten states. Customers pay because the company delivers a known brand with 50 years of local presence, reliable construction quality, and an industry-leading 96% mortgage capture rate.
Moat
The moat is built from regional land banks near a five-year owned and controlled supply, local trade relationships, the M/I Homes brand, and vertical integration through M/I Financial. It narrows when national builders expand into MHO markets and when broad housing affordability pressure removes pricing power regardless of builder quality.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if mortgage rates stay near 7%, forcing permanent mortgage rate buydown spending that destroys margins, if record new contracts convert poorly because cancellations rise, or if a regional housing downturn in Florida or Texas creates inventory that takes years to clear at profitable prices.
Management
Robert Schottenstein has been CEO since 1996 and represents the founding family. The management team runs a conservative balance sheet with an 18% homebuilding debt-to-capital ratio, no borrowings under the $900 million credit facility, a negative 1% net debt-to-capital ratio, and an S&P credit rating upgraded to BB+. The key-person risk is that Schottenstein has been central to MHO strategy for 30 years.
Industry trend
The long-term U.S. housing undersupply supports regional builders with patient land strategies. The near-term counterweight is that mortgage rates near 7% have pushed many buyers to the sidelines, and builders compete on mortgage rate buydowns and price concessions to move inventory, which keeps pressure on margins.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 12.4x TTM EPS and 1.14x book value, MHO trades at a discount to large-cap homebuilders, reflecting its smaller scale and lower liquidity. Margin of safety depends on whether record order growth translates into stable 2027 earnings, or whether incentives and affordability pressures push earnings below the $12.35 FY2026 consensus.
Source-backed data
MHO Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MHO price | $146.33 at the August 3, 2026, 12:40 PM EDT reading, up 0.19 or 0.13% from the $146.13 prior close, after opening at $149.57 and trading within a $146.33 to $151.08 range | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.70 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified as $146.33 x 25.28 million basic shares with 0.02% variance using financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 25.28 million shares outstanding, with 25,283,031 shares reported by SEC EDGAR as of the July 29, 2026 filing cover and 26,193 thousand diluted weighted average shares in Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $1.06 billion down 9%, gross margin of 22% including $4 million of inventory charges, pre-tax income of $105 million at 10% of revenue down 35%, net income of $79.1 million or $3.02 per diluted share, record book value per share of $128, and a $50 million buyback | M/I Homes Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 income statement detail | Housing revenue of $1,011,974 thousand, land revenue of $18,948 thousand, financial services revenue of $32,336 thousand, total revenue of $1,063,258 thousand, gross margin of $235,499 thousand, operating income of $101,278 thousand, pre-tax income of $104,564 thousand, and net income of $79,068 thousand, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL revenue of 1063258000 and net income of 79068000 for the quarter | M/I Homes Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | New contracts of 4,737 up 8%, homes delivered of 4,120 down 5%, pre-tax income of $193.7 million, net income of $146.9 million or $5.57 per diluted share, and total revenue of $1,983,965 thousand, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL revenue of 1983965000 | M/I Homes Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating metrics | New contracts of 2,387 up 15%, homes delivered of 2,206 down 6%, backlog of 2,426 homes with $1.31 billion sales value and an average price of $538,000, cancellation rate of 8% versus 13% a year earlier, and 234 communities | M/I Homes Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Total cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $735,941 thousand, total inventory of $3,505,298 thousand, total assets of $4,856,043 thousand, total debt of $949,305 thousand including $696,939 thousand of homebuilding debt and $252,366 thousand of financial services notes, total liabilities of $1,628,623 thousand, and shareholders equity of $3,227,420 thousand, with $735,941 thousand and $3,227,420 thousand matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | M/I Homes Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value and leverage | Record book value per share of $127.88, homebuilding debt-to-capital ratio of 18%, net debt-to-capital ratio of negative 1%, no borrowings under the $900 million unsecured credit facility, and an S&P credit rating upgraded to BB+ | M/I Homes Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.418 billion per StockAnalysis.com financials, cross-checked against SEC EDGAR XBRL revenue of 4417781000 for the year ended December 31, 2025 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $4.26 billion down 5.0%, net income of $317.36 million, EPS of $11.89, gross margin of 21.58%, operating margin of 10.16%, and profit margin of 7.44% over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $196.06 million of free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, with operating cash flow of $207.24 million and capital expenditures of negative $11.19 million; FY2025 free cash flow was $127.74 million, down from $171.32 million in FY2024 and $546.36 million in FY2023 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | 12.38x trailing PE, 10.80x forward PE, 0.87x sales, 1.14x book value, 18.84x free cash flow, EV/EBITDA of 9.37, and a 5.31% FCF yield, verified with financial_rigor.py at 12.31x PE, 1.14x PB, 0.87x PS, and 18.88x P/FCF from the August 4, 2026 cutoff | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $170.00 across four analysts, low $165 and high $175, about 16.18% above the August 3 price; Freedom Capital Markets initiated with a Buy and $170 target on June 24, 2026, Zelman downgraded MHO to Neutral from Outperform in early July 2026, and Seaport Research downgraded MHO to Neutral from Buy in April 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $4.24 billion with EPS of $12.35, FY2027 revenue of $4.44 billion with EPS of $14.65, and a 2026 EPS estimate range of $11.43 to $13.25 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.40 million shares short, 5.56% of shares outstanding, 5.68% of float, and 4.66 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Barchart: 5-day SMA near $150.22, 20-day near $148.80, 50-day near $145.88, 100-day near $136.04, 200-day near $135.14, 14-day RSI near 47.45, 14-day ADX near 21.15, and 14-day historical volatility near 28.81%; StockAnalysis.com: 50-day near $145.89, 200-day near $135.14, and RSI near 48.09 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $186.7, base $138.9, bearish $71.8 using the $12.35 FY2026 EPS estimate, growth of 8% / 4% / -6%, and PE of 12x / 10x / 7x over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 4, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This MHO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold M/I Homes, Inc. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026, and can be wrong if rates, orders, incentives, margins, cancellations, inventory, housing policy, or market multiples change.
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