Mohawk Industries Inc. research snapshot
MHK AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Mohawk Industries as a cyclical flooring leader that just delivered a strong Q2 2026 beat and a technical breakout. The stock closed at $123.10 on July 31, 2026, up 2.96% on the day and roughly 8.7% over the prior five sessions, with a market capitalization near $7.50 billion based on about 60.95 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across Google Finance, TradingView, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q balance sheet math of 67.8 million shares issued minus 7.3 million treasury shares. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, showed net sales of $2.99 billion up 6.8% as reported and 5.0% on an adjusted basis, GAAP diluted EPS of $3.22, and adjusted EPS of $3.67 that beat the $2.58 consensus by about 42% and included roughly $0.63 of tariff refunds not in guidance. Management kept buybacks running at about $60 million in the quarter, announced roughly $60 million of additional annual cost savings, and guided Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.50 to $2.60, above the $2.37 consensus, while cautioning that home resale markets remain near multi-decade lows and that higher input costs will pressure second-half margins. Paul De Cock becomes CEO effective September 30, 2026, replacing Jeffrey Lorberbaum, who retires as CEO and stays on as Chairman. The AI score sits at 70 out of 100 with a rating of improving cyclical with a strong Q2 2026 beat, still exposed to housing and tariff-driven earnings, because the report and the chart both turned more constructive while the housing market and one-time tariff benefits keep the recovery fragile. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$123.10 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 2.96% on the day
Market cap
$7.50 billion, based on about 60.95 million shares outstanding at $123.10
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Improving cyclical with a strong Q2 2026 beat, still exposed to housing and tariff-driven earnings
Trend status
Bullish recovery above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after the July 30, 2026 earnings beat
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mohawk is the world largest flooring maker with ceramic, carpet, laminate, wood, vinyl, countertop, and insulation lines across North America, Europe, and other regions. Q2 2026 net sales rose 6.8% to $2.99 billion with growth in every segment, and adjusted operating margins expanded in each segment. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from manufacturing scale across many countries, a portfolio of recognized brands (Daltile, Marazzi, Pergo, Quick-Step, Karastan, American Olean), and channel relationships with home centers, floor covering retailers, and commercial contractors, though imports remain a competitive force. | Medium |
| Management | Jeffrey Lorberbaum retires as CEO effective September 30, 2026 and is succeeded by Paul De Cock, now President and COO, who will also join the board; Lorberbaum stays on as Chairman. Capital allocation has emphasized buybacks, about $60 million in Q2 2026, alongside restructuring and a new roughly $60 million annual cost program. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue has been range-bound near $10.8 to $11.2 billion, and Q2 2026 added adjusted EPS growth to $3.67. TTM revenue is about $11.18 billion, TTM net income about $464 million, and TTM free cash flow about $812 million with a 9.73% FCF yield. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | MHK trades at roughly 16.35x TTM earnings, 13.50x forward earnings, 0.87x book value, and 10.28x trailing free cash flow. The moderate multiples reflect cyclical earnings pressure and a still-soft housing market rather than a growth premium. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | After the July 30, 2026 earnings beat the stock broke above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $112.51, $110.65, $106.28, and $111.76, with 14-day RSI at 63.92 and the positive directional index well above the negative line. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are a prolonged housing and commercial construction slowdown, Chinese and other import competition, higher labor, overhead, material, energy, and transportation costs, dependence on one-time tariff refunds, consumer spending sensitivity, and CEO transition execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported Q2 2026 results, balance sheet math, market data, technical indicators, and valuation ratios that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, Google Finance, TradingView, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release. Lower confidence for cyclical timing and housing recovery. | High |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. Mohawk is a solid cyclical business at a moderate valuation, but the earnings recovery depends on housing timing, tariff policy, input costs, and a CEO transition, and the stock has already priced in part of the Q2 improvement. | Low-medium |
MHK AI stock forecast
The MHK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $123.10 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires a housing recovery, sustained margin gains, and continued buybacks. The base case assumes the market stays soft while Mohawk gains share and benefits from cost programs and tariff refunds. The bearish case assumes housing stays weak, input costs compress margins, and tariff refunds fade.
$155 to $185
More likely if US housing activity rebounds, the CEO transition lands smoothly, cost programs and buybacks continue, and the market applies a 15x to 18x multiple to a normalized adjusted EPS path near $10.50 to $11 over the next year or two.
$120 to $145
More likely if flooring demand stays soft but Mohawk keeps gaining share, FY2026 adjusted EPS lands near the roughly $9.16 consensus, tariff refunds and cost savings partly offset inflation, and the stock trades at a 13x to 15x forward multiple.
$75 to $100
More likely if home resale and new construction stay at multi-decade lows, higher input costs hit second-half margins, tariff refunds do not repeat, import share keeps rising, or the CEO transition disrupts execution.
MHK AI technical analysis
MHK AI technical analysis starts from the $123.10 close used for this August 3, 2026 static page. After the July 30, 2026 earnings beat the stock jumped about 8.7% over five sessions and closed above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, a clear shift from the corrective phase that dominated the first half of the year. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $123.10 | July 31, 2026 close, up 2.96% on the day, confirmed across StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and TradingView. |
| Near support | $117 to $118 | The 5-day moving average near $117.76 and the base of the post-earnings breakout. A pullback that holds here is the first sign of a healthy retest. |
| Secondary support | $110 to $113 | The 20-day moving average near $112.51, the 50-day near $110.65, and the round $110 zone. This cluster is the main retest area if the breakout pulls back. |
| Near resistance | $125 to $126 | The July 31, 2026 day high near $125.54. A daily close above this level would extend the post-earnings move. |
| Secondary resistance | $129.50 to $132 | The analyst average price target near $129.50 and the median target near $132 per StockAnalysis, a zone where sellers may appear. |
| Upper resistance | $140 to $143.13 | The 52-week high of $143.13 and the area of several analyst targets near $140. A sustained break above the 52-week high would confirm a longer-term recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | $110.65 | StockAnalysis and Barchart report the 50-day MA at $110.65, now below price, consistent with a fresh short-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $111.76 | StockAnalysis and Barchart report the 200-day MA at $111.76. Trading above it for the first sustained period in months marks a structural improvement. |
| Momentum | RSI 63.92, stochastic %K 79.85 | Barchart reports 14-day RSI at 63.92 and 14-day stochastic %K near 79.85, strong momentum that is approaching but not yet at overbought extremes. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 823,000 to 841,000 shares | StockAnalysis reports about 822,683 shares and Barchart about 841,270 shares on a 20-day average, with volume elevated during the earnings move. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR $4.60, about 3.74%; beta 1.18 to 1.22 | Barchart reports a 14-day average true range near $4.60 and StockAnalysis a 5-year beta of 1.18, so daily moves can exceed market averages. |
| Invalidation | Close below $110, then below $106 | A close back below the $110 to $113 moving-average cluster would weaken the breakout, and a sustained break below the 100-day MA near $106.28 would argue the recovery failed. |
MHK AI trading strategy
The MHK AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines the improved fundamental setup, technical confirmation from the post-earnings breakout, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
With MHK above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after the earnings beat, a trend setup looks for a pullback toward the $117 to $118 five-day average or the $110 to $113 moving-average cluster that holds on higher volume before adding exposure.
A daily close back below $110 would invalidate the breakout. Do not chase a rally without confirming that pullbacks hold above the rising moving averages.
The stock rose about 8.7% in five sessions with RSI near 64, so a mean-reversion trader can wait for a retest of the $110 to $113 support cluster or a shakeout to the $117 to $118 zone before considering a long.
Do not average down into a failed breakout. Define a maximum loss below the $110 invalidation level and check the next earnings date before entering a position.
Track Q3 2026 earnings in late October 2026 against the $2.50 to $2.60 adjusted EPS guidance, the $0.12 of additional tariff refunds, housing and home resale data, input cost trends, buyback pace, and the Paul De Cock CEO transition effective September 30, 2026.
Lower the rating if revenue growth stalls, margins compress more than the seasonal guidance implies, tariff refunds stop, or the CEO transition creates execution risk.
Investment research summary
Mohawk is the world largest flooring manufacturer, selling ceramic, porcelain, natural stone, carpet, laminate, wood, vinyl, countertops, and insulation to residential and commercial customers across North America, Europe, Latin America, and Oceania. Customers pay for trusted brands and a full flooring assortment rather than for a single product.
The moat is built on manufacturing scale, a family of recognized brands (Daltile, Marazzi, Pergo, Quick-Step, Karastan, American Olean), and channel relationships with home centers and specialty retailers. The 2026 cost program of about $60 million in annual savings is a reminder that scale alone does not stop import competition.
The thesis can fail if the housing downturn deepens, imports permanently capture share, higher input costs compress second-half margins, the one-time tariff-refund benefit does not repeat, or the September 30, 2026 CEO transition disrupts the acquisition and integration engine that built the company.
Jeffrey Lorberbaum retires as CEO after a long record of acquisitions and operational discipline, and Paul De Cock, now President and COO, becomes CEO on September 30, 2026 while Lorberbaum remains Chairman. Capital allocation has emphasized buybacks of about $60 million in Q2 2026 alongside restructuring and cost programs.
Flooring demand tracks housing turnover, renovation activity, and commercial construction. Home resale markets remain near multi-decade lows, which keeps the industry in a soft patch, but the replacement cycle, population growth, and Mohawk share gains provide a structural floor beneath the cycle.
At roughly 16.35x TTM earnings, 13.50x forward earnings, and 10.28x trailing free cash flow, the stock is reasonably priced for a cyclical leader but no longer a deep value. The margin of safety depends on whether the Q2 beat marks the start of a durable recovery or a peak inflated by tariff refunds.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MHK price | $123.10 close on July 31, 2026, up 2.96% on the day | StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and TradingView quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $7.50 billion, computed as $123.10 x about 60.95 million shares; Google Finance and TradingView report $7.50 billion | Google Finance, TradingView, and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q balance sheet math (67.8 million issued minus 7.3 million treasury) | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $92.99 to $143.13 | StockAnalysis.com price overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales | $2,991.4 million, up 6.8% as reported and 5.0% adjusted for constant days and exchange rates | Mohawk Q2 2026 earnings release, July 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP diluted EPS $3.22; adjusted EPS $3.67, including about $0.63 of tariff refunds | Mohawk Q2 2026 earnings release and Google Finance (beat of $2.58 consensus) | August 3, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Net sales $5,720.1 million, up 7.4% as reported; net earnings $313.2 million; diluted EPS $5.11; adjusted EPS $5.56 | Mohawk Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Adjusted EPS of $2.50 to $2.60, including about $0.12 of additional tariff refunds; baseline of $2.38 to $2.48 excluding refunds and one-time charges | Mohawk Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, July 4, 2026 | Cash $849.6 million; total debt $1,916.5 million; net debt $1,066.9 million; total equity $8,544.7 million | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (filed July 31, 2026) and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | About $11.18 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q2 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income and EPS (TTM) | About $464.1 million net income and $7.53 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and valuation math | TTM FCF about $811.5 million; 16.35x TTM PE, 13.50x forward PE, 0.87x PB, 10.28x P/FCF, 9.73% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 15 analysts; average price target $129.50, median $132, low $109, high $153 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
This MHK AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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