LyondellBasell Industries N.V. research snapshot
LYB AI stock analysis reads LyondellBasell Industries as a cyclical chemicals and polymers producer in a sharp but uncertain earnings rebound. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LYB closed at $62.08 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $20.05 billion using 323.04 million shares. Q2 2026, released July 31, delivered revenue of $9,177 million, GAAP net income of $572 million, adjusted EBITDA of about $2.1 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 23%, driven by the Middle East conflict that removed a large share of global polyethylene supply. The same report also confirmed that the quarterly dividend was cut from $1.37 to $0.69, or about $2.76 per year, and net debt near $11.59 billion remains elevated. This LYB AI stock analysis treats the stock as a scenario-dependent cyclical trade rather than a clean long-term compounder, and is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$62.08
Market cap
$20.05 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Cyclical earnings rebound from Middle East supply disruption, tempered by a dividend cut and a heavy balance sheet
Trend status
Short-term uptrend above the 200-day average after the Q2 2026 surge, but the long-term trend is still neutral with the 100-day average overhead
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | LyondellBasell produces olefins, polyethylene, polypropylene, intermediates, oxyfuels, advanced polymer solutions, and licensed process technology for packaging, consumer products, fuels, autos, construction, and industrial customers, with TTM revenue near $31.19 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from world-scale assets, feedstock flexibility, process know-how, licensing technology, cost-advantaged ethylene capacity, customer relationships, and operating safety. It is narrower than a software or branded consumer moat because commodity spreads dominate returns. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Peter Vanacker is executing portfolio reshaping, the $500 million cash improvement plan, a 17% headcount reduction, the divestiture of four European assets, and disciplined capex, which produced a record-like Q2 when market conditions turned favorable. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $9,177 million up 19.84% year over year, GAAP net income was $572 million, adjusted EBITDA was about $2.1 billion with a 23% margin, and TTM free cash flow improved to $1,578 million, but TTM GAAP earnings remained slightly negative. | High |
| Valuation | At $62.08, tool math shows no positive TTM GAAP P/E, about 7.0x to 7.6x forward earnings on the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus near $8.88, 1.88x book value, 12.7x TTM free cash flow, and a 4.45% dividend yield after the cut to $2.76 per year. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ChartMill rated LYB a 3 out of 10 with a short-term up trend and neutral long-term trend. Price stands above the 20-day and 200-day moving averages but below the 100-day average near $67.48. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high-medium because the earnings spike depends on a fragile Middle East supply situation, and the dividend cut, net debt near $11.59 billion, 2027 consensus EPS decline, oil and gas costs, and asset portfolio changes can move value quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for source-backed financial and technical facts. Forecast confidence is only medium because normalized earnings power depends on conflict timing and the petrochemical cycle, not only company execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. The stock may work if supply stays tight and cash savings deliver, but the dividend cut, debt load, and consensus that already prices in a 2027 earnings decline limit high-conviction upside. | Medium-low |
LYB AI stock forecast
The LYB AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a point prediction. Because TTM GAAP EPS is still negative, the model uses the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $8.88 as the earnings proxy and cross-checks it against the Q2 2026 run rate and the 2027 consensus of about $6.43. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $27, a base area near $52, and a bullish area near $103 before dividends, showing that the current rebound is not a low-risk setup.
$95 to $120
More likely if the Middle East supply loss persists into 2027, polyethylene prices stay above pre-conflict levels, China returns to importing, oxyfuel and methanol margins hold, cash savings hit the $500 million target, and investors hold adjusted EPS near the 2026 consensus at a 9x to 11x multiple.
$48 to $58
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS near $8.88 partially delivers but fades toward the 2027 consensus of $6.43, and the market keeps LYB around an 8x multiple because dividend coverage, debt, capex, and commodity exposure still limit confidence.
$25 to $38
More likely if the conflict eases, Middle East capacity returns faster than expected, polyethylene prices fall back, 2026 EPS disappoints against the consensus, or balance-sheet and dividend concerns force investors to price LYB like a stressed cyclical chemical producer.
LYB AI technical analysis
LYB AI technical analysis is mixed to improving as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $62.08 on July 31, 2026. ChartMill rated the technical picture 3 out of 10 with a short-term up trend and neutral long-term trend, listing the 5-day average near $59.97, the 20-day near $58.65, the 50-day near $61.07, the 100-day near $67.48, and the 200-day near $58.21. StockAnalysis and Barchart reported the 50-day near $61.07, the 200-day near $58.21, and 14-day RSI near 58.65, with the 52-week range from $41.58 to $83.94.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.08 | StockAnalysis.com reported LYB at $62.08 after the July 31, 2026 close, up 2.71% for the session. |
| Immediate support | $60.60 to $61.80 | ChartMill placed a support zone near $60.61 to $61.78 formed by trend lines and moving averages across multiple time frames. |
| Next support | $58.20 to $59.20 | The 200-day moving average near $58.21 sits in this ChartMill support zone, making it the main bull case line in the sand. |
| Deeper support | $53.35 to $54.85 | ChartMill identified a deeper support zone near $53.35 to $54.83 from multi-time-frame trend lines, close to the July base around $52 to $53. |
| Immediate resistance | $62.10 to $62.35 | ChartMill placed near-term resistance at $62.09 to $62.33, so the stock needs a decisive close above this band to extend the bounce. |
| Major resistance | $66.50 to $67.50 | ChartMill listed weekly resistance near $66.59 and the 100-day moving average near $67.48, which together cap the medium-term recovery. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $59.97, 20-day $58.65, 50-day $61.07, 100-day $67.48, 200-day $58.21 | Short-term averages are below price after the Q2 surge, but the 100-day average remains overhead resistance, keeping the long-term trend neutral. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 58.65, MACD 0.54 | ChartMill, StockAnalysis, and Barchart all reported RSI near 58.65, below overbought, with MACD slightly positive but far from a strong momentum signal. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 5.23 million shares | ChartMill reported average volume near 5.23 million shares and a pocket pivot signal, so volume on the July 31 breakout was constructive. |
| Volatility | ATR percent near 3.48 | ChartMill classified volatility as medium with ATR percent near 3.48, which fits a cyclical chemical stock exposed to energy and conflict headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $58.21 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average would remove the short-term bull case, and a break below the $52 to $53 July base would signal deeper cycle stress. |
LYB AI trading strategy
The LYB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It connects price action with Middle East supply news, polyethylene price settlements, oxyfuel and methanol margins, cash improvement milestones, dividend coverage, debt, capex, and asset portfolio decisions.
Watch for LYB to close above the $62.10 to $62.35 resistance and then the $66.50 to $67.50 area, while Q3 commentary confirms that polyethylene prices, operating rates, and cash flow hold near the Q2 run rate.
Treat a failed move above resistance or a close back below the $58.20 to $59.20 zone, especially the 200-day average, as evidence that the rebound trade lacks confirmation.
If LYB pulls back toward the $53 to $55 zone without a new supply shock, compare the price with 2026 and 2027 adjusted EPS consensus, dividend coverage at the $2.76 annual rate, net debt, capex needs, and cash savings progress.
Do not average down only because the stock bounced in Q2. Require evidence that free cash flow can cover the dividend and maintenance capital if Middle East supply returns.
Track polyethylene and polypropylene contract prices, Middle East capacity restart news, Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea conditions, China import behavior, oxyfuel and methanol margins, cash and liquidity, total debt, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and the 2026 to 2027 consensus EPS gap.
Lower confidence if 2027 adjusted EPS consensus keeps falling below $6.43, debt rises, dividend coverage weakens, impairments continue, or management has to restrict shareholder returns again.
Investment research summary
Customers pay LYB for essential plastics, chemicals, fuels, compounding materials, and process technologies that support packaging, consumer goods, vehicles, construction, industrial production, and refining value chains.
LYB has scale, integrated assets, feedstock flexibility, cost-advantaged ethylene capacity, global customer relationships, operating know-how, licensing technology, and logistics reach. The moat is real but cyclical because commodity pricing can overwhelm asset quality in weak or over-supplied markets.
The rebound thesis fails if the Middle East conflict eases and 6 million tons of damaged polyethylene capacity returns before 2027, if China exports again, if oxyfuel and methanol margins normalize, or if the cash improvement plan, dividend coverage, and balance sheet cannot absorb a demand or price reset.
Management is judged by the $500 million cash improvement plan, the 17% headcount reduction, the four-asset European divestiture, Brindisi closure, disciplined capex of $1.2 billion, debt control, dividend sustainability at the lower rate, and whether it keeps exiting weaker assets instead of defending volume at poor returns.
Plastics and chemicals remain essential, but the near-term trend is dominated by the Middle East conflict that removed roughly 20% to 25% of regional polyethylene supply and pushed prices and oxyfuel margins to multi-year highs, while the longer-term cycle still faces global capacity and energy-cost risk.
At $62.08, LYB trades near 7.0x to 7.6x forward earnings on the 2026 consensus, 1.88x book value, and 12.7x trailing free cash flow, with a 4.45% dividend yield after the cut. Margin of safety improves only if the price leaves room for the 2027 consensus EPS decline from $8.88 to about $6.43.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LYB price | $62.08 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $20.05 billion, verified as $62.08 x 323.04 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $9,177 million, up 19.84% year over year | StockAnalysis.com quarterly income statement and LYB Q2 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | $572 million GAAP net income, $1.71 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis.com quarterly income statement and LYB Q2 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | About $2.1 billion, EBITDA margin near 23%, adjusted EPS $4.30 | LYB Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $30.153 billion revenue, $745 million loss attributable to shareholders | LYB 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | $2,973 million operating cash flow, $1,395 million capex, $1,578 million free cash flow, $4.88 per share | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at June 30, 2026 | $2.63 billion cash and cash equivalents, $14.22 billion total debt, net debt of about $11.59 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.76 annual rate, 4.45% yield, cut from the $5.45 annual 2025 level | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $67.12 across 18 analysts, low $48 and high $95, median $66 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue $33.28B with adjusted EPS $8.88, FY2027 revenue $31.92B with adjusted EPS $6.43 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Morgan Stanley $72, Goldman Sachs $62 Sell, Citi $67 Buy, BMO $64 Hold, Wells Fargo $70, Mizuho $62, BofA $48, UBS $73, Alembic $83 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 5-day $59.97, 20-day $58.65, 50-day $61.07, 100-day $67.48, 200-day $58.21 | ChartMill and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical range and momentum | 52-week high $83.94, 52-week low $41.58, RSI 58.65, MACD 0.54, ADX 21.44, ATR percent 3.48 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
This LYB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a rating from a licensed adviser, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if Middle East supply, polyethylene prices, oil and gas costs, leverage, dividend policy, regulation, or market sentiment change.
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