McKesson Corporation research snapshot
MCK AI stock analysis currently reads McKesson Corporation as a high-scale healthcare services and pharmaceutical distribution business with strong cash flow, persistent share repurchases, specialty and oncology exposure, and low but durable operating margins. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, MCK closed at $856.19 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $100.24 billion. The AI analysis score is constructive for business quality, cash conversion, and execution, but the MCK AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single target because drug distribution margins, customer concentration, medical-surgical separation timing, reimbursement pressure, GLP-1 supply swings, and valuation multiples can shift quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$856.19
Market cap
$100.24 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality healthcare distribution compounder with specialty and oncology momentum, but valuation now depends on customer concentration, medical-surgical separation execution, and reinvestment discipline
Trend status
Constructive trend above the 200-day moving average after a steady recovery from the June low, still below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | McKesson moves pharmaceuticals, medical-surgical supplies, oncology services, prescription technology, and related healthcare services through a national and increasingly specialty-oriented platform with stable prescription utilization. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, distribution density, procurement relationships, regulated infrastructure, customer workflow integration, specialty oncology reach, prescription technology networks, and the difficulty of replacing a national distributor without disrupting patient care. | Medium-high |
| Management | Brian Tyler has led McKesson since 2019 and became board chair on May 1, 2026. CFO Britt Vitalone is retiring after the FY2026 report. Capital allocation has emphasized specialty acquisitions, the medical-surgical separation, dividends, and buybacks, while direct CEO ownership stays modest relative to company value. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was $403.43 billion, up 12%; adjusted EPS was $39.11, up 18%; adjusted operating profit was $6.5 billion, up 15%; operating cash flow was $6.2 billion; and free cash flow was $5.4 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $856.19, financial_rigor.py calculates about 22.31x trailing GAAP EPS, 19.35x forward earnings, 17.53x free cash flow, a 5.71% free cash flow yield, and a 0.44% dividend yield. Book value is negative because of treasury shares. | High |
| Technical trend | MCK closed at $856.19 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 59.42. The stock recovered steadily from the June low but remained about 14% below the $999.00 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are low distribution margins, customer concentration, IRA and manufacturer price changes, reimbursement pressure, generic pricing changes, GLP-1 supply and demand volatility, medical-surgical separation execution, CFO transition, cyber risk, litigation, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, the July 31, 2026 quote, and calculations that cross-validated to within 0.00% across StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py. Medium for forecast because healthcare distributors can rerate on regulation, customer contracts, drug mix, litigation, and capital allocation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. McKesson has a durable role in the healthcare supply chain, but the current thesis requires continued specialty growth, cash conversion, contract discipline, and controlled legal, policy, and separation risk. | Medium |
MCK AI stock forecast
The MCK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $856.19 and FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $43.80 to $44.60. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $1,391, a base value near $1,154, and a bearish value near $767 before dividends. The range is wide by design because McKesson combines defensive healthcare demand with thin margins, customer concentration, litigation liabilities, medical-surgical separation execution, and valuation sensitivity.
$1,350 to $1,420
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near the high end of the 13% to 16% long-term target, oncology and specialty services keep growing, the medical-surgical separation unlocks value, free cash flow funds buybacks, and the market values MCK near 24x earnings.
$1,120 to $1,180
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 12%, distribution margins stay stable, cash conversion remains strong, separation and Apollo transaction close on schedule, and investors value MCK near 21x earnings.
$740 to $790
More likely if customer concentration pressure, reimbursement changes, drug mix, GLP-1 supply issues, separation delays, litigation payments, or market risk appetite push EPS growth toward mid single digits and the multiple toward 16x.
MCK AI technical analysis
MCK AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both showed the stock closing at $856.19 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 59.42 and 14-day ADX near 24 confirming a developing trend. The stock recovered steadily from the June low but remained about 14% below the $999.00 52-week high, so the setup is a repair and recovery pattern rather than a fresh breakout.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $856.19 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both showed the July 31, 2026 close at $856.19; market cap math verified at 100.24B against 117.08 million shares. |
| Near support | $829 to $836 | The 20-day moving average was near $829.66 and the 200-day near $835.88 on July 31, 2026, forming the first pullback support cluster. |
| Next support | $790 to $817 | The 50-day moving average was near $790.06 and the 100-day near $817.30, a stronger support zone if the stock gives back the recent rebound. |
| Near resistance | $870 to $875 | Barchart listed the 5-day moving average near $869.96, so the recent rebound area is the first upside test. |
| Major resistance | $999 | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and McKesson investor relations listed the 52-week high at $999.00. |
| 50-day moving average | $790.06 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $790.06 on July 31, 2026, well below price and confirming the short-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $835.88 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day moving average near $835.88, now below price, which improves the longer-term signal. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59, ADX near 24 | 14-day RSI was near 59.42, neutral to slightly bullish, and 14-day ADX near 23.97 with +DI above -DI confirmed a developing trend on Barchart. |
| Volume | About 0.9M to 1.0M average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 879,257 shares while Barchart showed near 927,365, both lower than the rebound average earlier in July. |
| Volatility | ATR near $22.62 | Barchart reported 14-day ATR near $22.62, about 2.64% of price, and 14-day historical volatility near 35%, so position sizing should account for earnings-driven swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $835, then $790 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $835.88 would weaken the recovery. A break below the 50-day near $790.06 would signal a failed repair. |
MCK AI trading strategy
The MCK AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a healthcare distribution stock with defensive demand but thin margins, policy risk, and an upcoming medical-surgical separation. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, the August 5, 2026 Q1 FY2027 report, customer contract updates, legal reserve changes, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for MCK to hold above the $829 to $836 support cluster and then clear $870 to $875 on above-average volume, with confirmation from healthcare distribution peers and no negative contract, reimbursement, or separation headlines.
A failed move back below the 200-day moving average near $835 should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If MCK pulls back toward $790 or $817 while FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, customer contracts, and separation timing remain intact, compare the drawdown with the long-term distribution and specialty services thesis.
Do not treat defensive healthcare demand as a substitute for risk control. Distributor margins are thin, and the August 5 earnings report plus separation milestones can move the stock quickly.
Track North American Pharmaceutical revenue, Oncology & Multispecialty growth, Prescription Technology Solutions margins, Medical-Surgical separation and Apollo close milestones, free cash flow, share repurchases, opioid liabilities, and top-customer exposure.
Reduce confidence if operating profit fails to grow with revenue, free cash flow falls materially below earnings, customer concentration worsens, separation slips, or legal and policy risks consume more cash than expected.
Investment research summary
McKesson gets paid to make the healthcare supply chain work: it sources, distributes, finances, tracks, and supports medicines and medical products for pharmacies, providers, manufacturers, payers, and patients.
The moat is built from scale logistics, regulated distribution licenses, purchasing reach, dense customer relationships, workflow software, specialty oncology networks, prescription technology services, and the difficulty of replacing a national distributor without disrupting patient care.
The thesis fails if a major customer reprices or leaves, distribution margins compress, IRA or reimbursement changes reduce manufacturer service value, GLP-1 supply volatility hurts revenue mix, the medical-surgical separation or CFO transition distracts management, or litigation and tax liabilities absorb cash.
Brian Tyler has spent more than 25 years at McKesson, became CEO in 2019, and became chair on May 1, 2026. The record shows disciplined buybacks, a $5 billion new buyback authorization, the Apollo minority investment in Medical-Surgical Solutions, and an upcoming CFO transition, while modest direct CEO ownership keeps alignment at medium rather than high.
Healthcare demand, specialty medicine, oncology care, biologics, biosimilars, GLP-1 medications, patient access tools, and pharmacy workflow complexity support long-term relevance, but public policy and reimbursement rules decide how much economics stay with distributors.
At about 22.31x trailing GAAP EPS and 19.35x forward earnings with a 5.71% free cash flow yield, MCK is priced as a quality compounder. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while free cash flow, customer retention, specialty growth, and separation milestones stay on track.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $856.19 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $100.24 billion, verified as $856.19 x 117.08 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 117.08 million, down 3.12% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $403.43 billion, up 12.36% from $359.05 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and McKesson FY2026 Form 10-K | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income attributable to McKesson | $4.76 billion, up 44.52% | StockAnalysis.com financials and McKesson FY2026 Form 10-K | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS | $39.11, up 18% | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted operating profit | $6.5 billion, up 15% | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2026 operating cash flow | $6.2 billion | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2026 free cash flow | $5.4 billion, including $745 million of capital expenditures | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $3.98 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Total debt | $8.61 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Net debt | -$4.64 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $637.00 to $999.00 | StockAnalysis.com quote and McKesson investor relations | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 22.31x trailing GAAP EPS, 19.35x forward PE, 17.53x free cash flow, 0.25x sales, 0.44% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance | $43.80 to $44.60, representing 12% to 14% growth | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2027 free cash flow guidance | $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2027 buyback plan | About $5 billion of share repurchases planned | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.94 per share, raised 15% from $0.82 on July 21, 2026 | McKesson dividend announcement via Business Wire | July 21, 2026 |
| Medical-Surgical separation and Apollo | Apollo Funds agreed to a $1.25 billion minority investment for about 13% of Medical-Surgical Solutions, implying about $13 billion total enterprise value; transaction closed June 1, 2026 | McKesson press release and Bank of America conference transcript | June 1, 2026 |
| GLP-1 distribution revenue FY2026 | About $53 billion, up 27%; Q4 revenue was $14 billion, up 22% | McKesson Q4 FY2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| CEO and chair | Brian S. Tyler | StockAnalysis.com company profile | July 31, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 5, 2026, for Q1 FY2027 after market close | McKesson announcement via Business Wire | June 23, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $947.13 across 17 analysts, low $812 and high $1,065, median $950 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 24, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 11 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell out of 17 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 24, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Citi $945 to $1,000 on July 24, Mizuho Hold at $885 on July 23, TD Cowen $1,012 to $989 on July 21, Bank of America $900 to $925 on July 20, Barclays $1,050 to $925 on June 10 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 24, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.88 million shares short, 3.31% of shares outstanding, 3.29 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $6.16 billion, capital expenditures of $436 million, free cash flow of $5.72 billion over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 1, 2026 |
| 2027 and 2028 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate $431.19B with adjusted EPS $44.25, FY2028 revenue $463.46B with adjusted EPS $50.38 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 24, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day MA near $829.66, 50-day MA near $790.06, 100-day MA near $817.30, 200-day MA near $835.88, 14-day RSI near 59.42, 14-day ADX near 23.97 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This MCK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a price guarantee, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if McKesson fundamentals, technical conditions, regulation, litigation, customer contracts, medical-surgical separation timing, or market valuation change.
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