Bullish case
$480 to $515
More likely if EPS compounds near high single digits, the capital markets boom continues, credit losses stay controlled, net interest income remains resilient, buybacks continue, and investors value JPM near 17x earnings.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. research snapshot
JPM AI Stock Analysis
JPM AI stock analysis reads JPMorgan Chase & Co. as the strongest diversified U.S. bank franchise, combining consumer banking, cards, payments, commercial banking, investment banking, markets, custody, and asset and wealth management. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, JPM traded near $351.79 with a market capitalization near $935.13 billion after a record Q2 2026 quarter pushed the stock toward a $359.30 52-week high and put the firm in reach of a $1 trillion market cap. The AI analysis score is high for business quality and data confidence, but the JPM AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price target because bank earnings, credit costs, regulation, rates, and valuation multiples can change quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$351.79
Market cap
$935.13 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Record Q2 2026 results put JPMorgan within reach of a $1 trillion market cap, but the stock is priced for continued perfection
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages near a $359.30 52-week high, with 14-day RSI near 60
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. JPMorgan Chase has decades of public filings, detailed annual and quarterly reports, earnings supplements, regulatory capital disclosures, daily market data, analyst coverage, and broad third-party market data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is extrapolating the record Q2 2026 quarter and the $1 trillion market cap narrative too far while under-weighting credit normalization, Basel III Endgame capital rules, deposit costs, securities marks, rate sensitivity, litigation, succession, and the possibility that the stock near its all-time high already discounts much of the good news.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, TTM revenue and net income, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 results, FY2025 results, share count, book value, dividend, moving averages, and RSI. Medium for forward returns because bank earnings depend on rates, credit, market activity, capital rules, and investor risk appetite.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. JPMorgan Chase is easier to analyze than most banks because of disclosure depth and a long operating record, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because bank balance sheets are levered, regulated, and sensitive to macro shocks, and the current valuation leaves less margin for error.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | JPMorgan earns across deposits, cards, lending, payments, investment banking, markets, custody, asset management, and private banking, giving it one of the broadest bank profit pools in the world. Q2 2026 revenue of $54.83 billion and net income of $20.75 billion were records. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost deposit scale, brand trust, regulatory permissions, payments data, institutional relationships, risk systems, and technology spend that few rivals can match, and it becomes more valuable in stress periods. | High |
| Management | Jamie Dimon has led the firm for about two decades with a record of crisis execution, capital discipline, and conservative balance-sheet language. Succession remains the key person risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $186.33 billion and TTM net income was about $63.63 billion with EPS near $23.30. Q2 2026 revenue rose about 30.4% year over year to $54.83 billion, with EPS of $7.70. | High |
| Valuation | At $351.79, financial_rigor.py calculates about 15.10x EPS, 2.64x book value, 17.52% implied ROE on book value per share, and a 1.71% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Barchart showed JPM above the 20-day moving average near $344.22, the 50-day near $327.69, and the 200-day near $311.85, with 14-day RSI near 60.45 and the stock within about 2% of its $359.30 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit normalization, deposit cost pressure, Basel III Endgame capital rules, rate shocks, recession, securities marks, trading losses, litigation, cyber risk, succession, and the market pricing JPM near a $1 trillion valuation with less room for error. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts, quotes, and calculations. Medium for the forecast because a bank stock can rerate quickly when credit, liquidity, rates, capital rules, or market confidence changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. JPMorgan Chase is a rare high-quality bank, but the current price already reflects a best-in-class franchise, so durable earnings, credit discipline, and capital returns matter more than the narrative. | Medium |
JPM AI stock forecast
JPM AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The JPM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $351.79 quote and $23.30 TTM EPS. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $499, a base value near $405, and a bearish value near $280 before dividends. The wide range is intentional because bank valuations are highly sensitive to credit losses, rates, Basel III Endgame capital rules, and market confidence, and the stock is near an all-time high.
Base case
$390 to $420
More likely if EPS grows near low to mid single digits from an elevated base, deposit costs and credit costs normalize without stress, wealth, payments, and investment banking stay healthy, and the market applies about 15x earnings.
Bearish case
$265 to $295
More likely if unemployment rises, card and commercial credit losses climb, Basel III Endgame capital rules bind returns, market revenue weakens, deposit costs pressure spreads, or investors reprice JPM closer to 12x earnings during a risk-off period.
JPM AI technical analysis
JPM AI Technical Analysis
JPM AI technical analysis was strongly positive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, but it was not an early entry setup. Barchart showed JPM above its 20-day moving average near $344.22, 50-day near $327.69, 100-day near $314.15, and 200-day near $311.85, with 14-day RSI near 60.45 and 14-day ATR near $7.41. StockAnalysis showed a 52-week range of $279.10 to $359.30, so the stock sits close to its high after the record Q2 2026 report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $351.79 | StockAnalysis close for July 31, 2026, used for this static page and market cap verification at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $344 to $348 | The 20-day moving average near $344.22 and the recent consolidation zone just below the price are the first trend support areas. |
| Secondary support | $327 to $332 | The Barchart 50-day moving average near $327.69 defines the next support band that matters for the near-term trend. |
| Deeper support | $312 to $315 | The 200-day moving average near $311.85 and the 100-day near $314.15 mark the deeper trend support zone. |
| Near resistance | $359 to $360 | StockAnalysis listed the 52-week high near $359.30, making the all-time high the first resistance band. |
| 50-day moving average | $327.69 | Barchart reported JPM trading well above the 50-day moving average, supporting a positive intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $311.85 | Barchart reported JPM trading well above the 200-day moving average, supporting a positive long-term trend. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 60.45 | Momentum is positive but not overbought, so the stock can still extend, though new entries should respect breakout failure risk near the high. |
| Volume | About 9.0M to 9.4M average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 9.37 million shares, while StockAnalysis listed about 9.07 million. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR $7.41 | Normal daily movement is modest relative to the share price, but volatility can expand around earnings, Fed policy, capital return news, credit headlines, and macro stress. |
| Invalidation | Close below $328, then $312 | A close below the 50-day area near $328 would weaken the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day area near $312 would signal broader trend damage. |
JPM AI trading strategy
JPM AI Trading Strategy Framework
The JPM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a diversified mega-bank trading near an all-time high. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, credit trends, Basel III Endgame updates, Fed policy, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Watch for JPM to hold above the $344 area and then clear the $359 to $360 resistance band on above-average volume, with confirmation from financial-sector strength and stable credit headlines.
A failed breakout back below the 50-day moving average zone near $328 should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If JPM pulls back toward $328 or the $312 to $315 area without a deterioration in credit, deposits, CET1 capital, net interest income, or management guidance, compare price weakness with the long-term earnings thesis.
Do not treat franchise quality or a record quarter as a substitute for risk control. Bank stocks can fall quickly when credit confidence changes, and the stock is near its high.
Fundamental monitor
Track net interest income, card charge-offs, commercial credit, deposits, CET1 ratio, tangible book value, buybacks, dividend policy, investment banking fees, markets revenue, expenses, Basel III Endgame updates, and management succession.
Reduce confidence if credit provisions rise faster than revenue, capital rules tighten materially, deposits reprice faster than assets, investment banking fees fade, or the stock stays expensive while EPS momentum slows.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
JPMorgan Chase helps households, businesses, governments, institutions, and wealthy clients store money, borrow, pay, invest, trade, raise capital, manage risk, and move funds across the financial system.
Moat
The moat is built from deposit scale, trusted brands, regulatory licenses, payments reach, data, technology investment, institutional relationships, and risk controls that become more valuable in stress periods.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if credit losses rise sharply, the firm misprices risk, Basel III Endgame forces lower returns, deposits become more expensive, a cyber or operational event damages trust, the capital markets boom fades, or succession weakens execution.
Management
Jamie Dimon has built a reputation for conservative crisis management and disciplined capital allocation over roughly two decades. The next test is whether the organization can preserve that standard through succession and a less friendly credit cycle.
Industry trend
JPMorgan benefits from record capital markets activity, a resilient consumer, and long-running demand for digital banking, payments, wealth management, custody, and transaction services, but banking remains cyclical and tightly regulated.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 15.10x EPS and 2.64x book value with a near-$1 trillion market cap, JPM is priced as a best-in-class bank rather than a value opportunity. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while book value, capital, deposits, and credit quality remain strong.
Source-backed data
JPM Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $351.79 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis JPM quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $935.13 billion, verified as $351.79 x 2.66 billion shares with 0.07% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.66 billion, down about 3.57% year over year | StockAnalysis JPM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $186.33 billion, up about 13.8% | StockAnalysis JPM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $63.63 billion, up about 15.1% | StockAnalysis JPM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $23.30 | StockAnalysis JPM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $54.83 billion revenue up 30.4% year over year, $20.75 billion net income, and $7.70 EPS | StockAnalysis JPM quarterly financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $47.33 billion revenue and $16.15 billion net income, with $5.94 EPS | StockAnalysis JPM quarterly financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $168.24 billion up 0.88% and net income of $55.68 billion down 2.09% | StockAnalysis JPM financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $133.01 with $374.60 billion in book equity | StockAnalysis JPM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.10x EPS, 2.64x book value, 17.52% ROE proxy, and 1.71% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.50 per quarter, about $6.00 annualized with a 1.71% yield and an ex-dividend date of July 6, 2026 | StockAnalysis JPM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $279.10 to $359.30 | StockAnalysis JPM quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day SMA $344.22, 50-day SMA $327.69, 100-day SMA $314.15, 200-day SMA $311.85, 14-day RSI 60.45, 14-day ATR $7.41 | Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 23 analysts with a $371.85 average price target, about 5.7% above the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis JPM forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bullish $499, base $405, bearish $280 based on financial_rigor.py EPS growth and PE assumptions | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This JPM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong.
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