Marriott International, Inc. research snapshot
MAR AI stock analysis currently reads Marriott International as a high-quality, asset-light hotel and lodging platform with strong global brands, Marriott Bonvoy loyalty scale, a large development pipeline, fee-driven economics, and active capital returns. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, MAR traded near $380.75 with a verified market capitalization near $100.40 billion. The MAR AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price target because RevPAR, net room growth, owner financing, travel demand, debt cost, buybacks, and valuation multiples can change the outcome quickly. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$380.75
Market cap
$100.40 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality asset-light hotel platform with strong brands, premium valuation, and travel-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Constructive above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but below the June 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Marriott earns value from management fees, franchise fees, loyalty, booking demand, brands, distribution, and owner relationships rather than owning most hotel real estate. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from global brand breadth, Marriott Bonvoy, direct booking scale, owner relationships, long-term contracts, development pipeline depth, and operating know-how. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Anthony Capuano has continued the asset-light growth model, global brand expansion, pipeline conversion, and shareholder returns. The key test is discipline when the stock trades at a premium multiple. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $26.19 billion and reported net income was $2.60 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was $6.65 billion, reported net income was $648 million, and worldwide RevPAR rose 4.2%. | High |
| Valuation | At $380.75, verified math shows about 39.87x TTM EPS, 45.93x free cash flow per share, about 3.83x sales per share, and a 0.66% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $372.58 and the 200-day moving average near $323.84, while RSI near 50.40 points to neutral momentum rather than an oversold setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include travel demand cyclicality, RevPAR softness, owner financing constraints, labor and construction costs, online travel competition, cyber risk, leverage, and valuation multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company disclosures and third-party datasets agree on the core data. Return confidence is lower because valuation depends on sustained RevPAR, pipeline conversion, buybacks, and premium multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Marriott has durable business quality, but the current setup needs continued net room growth, resilient travel demand, fee revenue growth, cash generation, and a valuation that leaves room for disappointment. | Medium |
MAR AI stock forecast
The MAR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because hotel earnings depend on RevPAR, net room growth, fee revenue, owner development activity, debt cost, buybacks, and the market multiple. Using the $380.75 price reference, $9.55 TTM EPS, and an audited three-year framework, the mechanical outcomes are about $432 in a bullish case, $330 in a base case, and $192 in a bearish case before dividends.
$420 to $440 before dividends
More likely if RevPAR growth stays positive, net room growth remains around 4.5% to 5%, fee revenue reaches 2026 guidance, pipeline conversion stays healthy, buybacks reduce share count, and investors keep valuing MAR near a premium travel-platform multiple.
$315 to $345 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS grows in the mid-single digits, worldwide RevPAR grows in the low-single digits, net room growth remains on plan, the stock holds above the 200-day trend, and the market applies a high-20s earnings multiple.
$180 to $205 before dividends
More likely if travel demand weakens, RevPAR turns negative, hotel owners delay openings, debt and construction costs pressure development, buybacks occur at poor prices, or MAR de-rates toward a lower travel-cycle multiple.
MAR AI technical analysis
MAR AI technical analysis is constructive but not early as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed MAR at $380.75 on July 7, 2026 with a market cap near $100.40 billion, while TipRanks listed RSI at 50.40, the 50-day moving average near $372.58, and the 200-day moving average near $323.84. MarketWatch reported that MAR closed at $379.75 on July 6, about 7.60% below its $410.98 52-week high from June 15.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $380.75 | StockAnalysis listed this July 7, 2026 close, used as the page reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $372 to $373 | TipRanks placed the 50-day moving average near $372.58, making this the first trend-support band to monitor. |
| Secondary support | $323 to $325 | TipRanks and Intellectia snapshots put the 200-day moving average around this area. A break would weaken the longer-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $386 to $387 | The 20-day moving average near $386.55 is a short-term friction zone after the pullback from the June high. |
| Upper resistance | $410 to $411 | MarketWatch reported a $410.98 52-week high reached on June 15, 2026. This is a resistance reference, not a forecast. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $372.58, 200-day near $323.84 | Price remained above both trend gauges, so the larger trend is still constructive despite short-term consolidation. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 near 50.40 | TipRanks showed neutral RSI, with MACD and several moving-average signals still mixed to positive. |
| Volume | About 1.5 million 50-day average volume | MarketWatch reported July 6 volume of 1.7 million shares versus a 50-day average near 1.5 million, enough liquidity for large-cap confirmation checks. |
| Volatility | Earnings and RevPAR sensitive | Hotel stocks can move quickly around RevPAR guidance, fee revenue, owner financing conditions, buybacks, and macro travel data. |
| Invalidation | Close below $372, then below $324 | A sustained break below the 50-day area would weaken the current trend. A break below the 200-day area would challenge the longer setup. |
MAR AI trading strategy
The MAR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with RevPAR, gross fee revenue, net rooms growth, adjusted EBITDA, development pipeline conversion, debt, buybacks, and owner financing conditions.
Watch for MAR to hold the $372 to $373 50-day area and reclaim the $386 to $387 band with improving volume, stable RevPAR commentary, and no negative change to 2026 adjusted EPS, fee revenue, or net rooms guidance.
A failed move below the 50-day area after earnings should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers RevPAR, pipeline, or capital-return assumptions.
If MAR pulls back toward the 200-day area without a permanent demand reset, compare the lower price with fee revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, buybacks, and peer action in Hilton, Hyatt, and online travel platforms.
Do not treat every pullback as attractive because high-multiple asset-light hotel companies can de-rate sharply when growth expectations slow.
Track worldwide RevPAR, U.S. and Canada RevPAR, international RevPAR, gross fee revenue, pipeline rooms, net room additions, adjusted EBITDA, cash and debt, buybacks, dividend coverage, and owner financing conditions.
Position sizing should reflect that MAR can look operationally strong while valuation risk is still high if the market lowers the premium multiple.
Investment research summary
Guests pay for trusted places to stay, while hotel owners pay Marriott for brands, loyalty demand, booking channels, operating standards, procurement scale, and global distribution. Marriott converts that ecosystem into high-margin fee revenue and recurring cash flow.
The moat is strongest in brand breadth, Marriott Bonvoy loyalty, direct booking scale, owner relationships, long-term management and franchise contracts, global development reach, and operational data. It narrows if owners, online travel channels, or alternative lodging platforms gain leverage.
The thesis fails if RevPAR weakens, hotel owners delay development, brand standards become costly, cyber incidents damage trust, debt cost rises, buybacks consume too much cash at high prices, or the market stops paying a premium for asset-light growth.
Anthony Capuano has emphasized brand expansion, net room growth, loyalty, fee-based economics, development pipeline depth, and large capital returns. The key management test is whether buybacks, leverage, and growth spending remain disciplined at a high share price.
Travel benefits from global middle-class growth, luxury and experiential demand, business travel normalization, loyalty ecosystems, and international room expansion. The offset is that lodging remains exposed to consumer cycles, corporate travel budgets, geopolitics, FX, and owner financing.
At $380.75, Marriott is priced as a premium asset-light compounder. Margin of safety depends less on near-term accounting earnings and more on sustained RevPAR, pipeline conversion, free cash flow, buybacks, and avoiding multiple compression.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $380.75 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis MAR financial ratios | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $100.40 billion, verified as $380.75 x 263.69 million shares | StockAnalysis MAR market cap and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 263.69 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis MAR statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $26.19 billion, cross-checked across Marriott FY2025 release and AlphaQuery | Marriott FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $2.60 billion, cross-checked across Marriott FY2025 release and AlphaQuery | Marriott FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating and adjusted data | Reported diluted EPS $9.51, adjusted diluted EPS $10.02, adjusted EBITDA $5.38 billion, net rooms growth over 4.3% | Marriott FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and earnings | Total revenue $6.654 billion, reported net income $648 million, reported diluted EPS $2.43, adjusted diluted EPS $2.72 | Marriott Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 RevPAR and pipeline | Worldwide RevPAR up 4.2%; pipeline about 4,107 properties and nearly 618,000 rooms | Marriott Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Q1 2026 cash and equivalents $0.5 billion; total debt $16.5 billion | Marriott Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | StockAnalysis listed trailing PE 39.87, forward PE 32.14, PEG 2.50, P/FCF 40.58, EV/EBITDA 24.78 | StockAnalysis MAR statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 14 50.40, 50-day moving average $372.58, 200-day moving average $323.84 | TipRanks MAR technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Management and ownership context | 2026 proxy lists Anthony Capuano as CEO and notes directors and executive officers other than named Marriott family holders owned about 0.26% as a group as of March 1, 2026 | Marriott 2026 Proxy Statement | July 8, 2026 |
This MAR AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell Marriott International stock, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong.
