Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. research snapshot
MAA AI stock analysis currently reads Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. as a high-quality apartment REIT with scale in Sunbelt and Southeast rental housing, strong occupancy, low resident turnover, and meaningful exposure to interest rates, new apartment supply, and same-store rent pressure. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, MAA traded near $141.71 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $16.91 billion. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$141.71
Market cap
$16.91 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality Sunbelt apartment REIT with supply and rate sensitivity
Trend status
Recovering above key moving averages with moderate momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MAA owns, operates, acquires, develops, and redevelops apartment communities, mainly in Southeast, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic, and broader Sunbelt markets where renters pay for location, professional management, and housing flexibility. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from local scale, operating systems, balance sheet access, development experience, resident data, and a portfolio footprint that would be costly to replicate at current replacement costs. | Medium-high |
| Management | Brad Hill became CEO on April 1, 2025, while former CEO H. Eric Bolton, Jr. moved to Executive Chairman, creating continuity after a long operating and capital allocation record. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 property revenue was $2.209 billion and Core FFO was $8.74 per diluted share. Q1 2026 revenue was $553.7 million, Core FFO was $2.13 per share, and same-store NOI declined 1.3%. | High |
| Valuation | At $141.71, MAA traded near 42.94x TTM EPS, 17.00x price to FFO, 2.98x book value, 7.64x sales, and a 4.32% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The technical picture was constructive but not extreme: price was above the 50-day and 200-day averages, RSI was near 63.90, and ChartMill identified resistance near $145.83 and $149.97 to $150.16. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are Sunbelt apartment oversupply, weak new lease pricing, higher rates, refinancing cost, cap-rate expansion, dividend coverage pressure, property taxes, insurance, and local job weakness. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculation checks. Lower for exact price outcomes because REIT multiples, interest rates, rental supply, and local labor markets can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. MAA looks like a durable apartment REIT, but a buy decision depends on price, FFO trend, leverage, dividend coverage, supply absorption, and required real estate yield. | Medium |
MAA AI stock forecast
The MAA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $141.71 quote and management 2026 Core FFO midpoint of $8.53 per share. The audited three-year FFO multiple framework produced a bearish area near $109, a base area near $158.50, and a bullish area near $193 before dividends.
$185 to $200
More likely if Sunbelt supply is absorbed faster than expected, new lease pricing turns positive, occupancy holds near the mid-95% area, Core FFO grows about 6% annually, leverage stays controlled, and investors pay near 19x FFO.
$150 to $165
More likely if Core FFO grows about 3% annually, same-store NOI stabilizes after 2026, interest expense remains manageable, development deliveries lease up on plan, and the market values MAA around 17x FFO.
$100 to $115
More likely if new supply keeps pressuring rents, property taxes and insurance rise faster than rents, refinancing spreads widen, Core FFO declines about 3% annually, or the stock rerates toward 14x FFO.
MAA AI technical analysis
MAA AI technical analysis is constructive but still range-aware as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $141.71 close on July 7, a 50-day moving average of $132.96, a 200-day moving average of $132.48, RSI of 63.90, beta of 0.73, and 20-day average volume near 991,604 shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $141.71 | StockAnalysis close on July 7, 2026, used for market cap and valuation math at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $132.48 to $132.96 | The 200-day and 50-day moving averages sit close together, creating the first trend support area to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $126.27 to $128.89 | ChartMill identified this as an important support zone formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages. |
| Near resistance | $145.83 | ChartMill flagged this as the first important resistance area above the current price. |
| Upper resistance | $149.97 to $150.16 | A move through this zone would improve the breakout case, especially if volume confirms the move. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $132.96, 200-day $132.48 | Price above both levels supports a recovery trend, but a close back below them would weaken the setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 63.90 | Momentum was positive but not yet in an extreme overbought zone on the StockAnalysis snapshot. |
| Volume | About 991,604 average daily shares | The 20-day average volume provides adequate liquidity for large-cap REIT monitoring frameworks. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.73 | MAA has shown lower beta than the broad market, but REIT volatility can rise around rates, CPI, jobs data, and apartment supply updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $132.48, then $126.27 | A close below the moving-average cluster would weaken the trend. A break below the ChartMill support zone would point to a deeper reset. |
MAA AI trading strategy
The MAA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for an apartment REIT with real estate income, dividend yield, supply-cycle risk, and rate sensitivity. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for MAA to hold above the $132.48 to $132.96 moving-average support area and then clear $145.83 with volume confirmation.
A close below $132.48 or a failed breakout after rate-sensitive macro news should invalidate the short-term setup.
If MAA pulls back toward the 50-day and 200-day averages without a fresh deterioration in same-store NOI, compare the price reaction with leasing spreads, occupancy, Core FFO guidance, and cap-rate expectations.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because REITs can reprice sharply when rates rise or rental growth expectations fall.
Track same-store revenue, same-store NOI, new lease growth, renewal lease growth, occupancy, resident turnover, Core FFO per share, dividend coverage, debt maturities, and development lease-up.
Reduce confidence if Core FFO relies on asset sales or leverage rather than rent stabilization, occupancy, expense control, and development returns.
Investment research summary
MAA sells professionally managed rental housing in high-demand U.S. apartment markets. Residents pay for location, flexibility, maintenance, amenities, and the option to avoid homeownership costs.
The moat is strongest in local operating scale, portfolio density, balance sheet access, resident data, and development experience. It narrows when new supply gives renters more choices or when cap rates rise.
The thesis fails if Sunbelt supply remains excessive, job growth weakens, renewal rent growth fades, property taxes and insurance rise faster than rents, or higher rates reduce both FFO growth and valuation multiples.
Brad Hill leads after a planned succession from H. Eric Bolton, Jr., who remains Executive Chairman. The key test is whether the new CEO can preserve operating discipline while navigating supply pressure and capital costs.
Long-term rental demand is supported by household formation, migration to lower-cost growth markets, and high single-family housing affordability pressure. The countertrend is the current wave of Sunbelt apartment deliveries.
MAA is priced as a quality REIT rather than a distressed apartment owner. Margin of safety depends on FFO recovery, dividend coverage, leverage discipline, lower supply pressure, and whether investors keep paying about 17x FFO.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAA price | $141.71 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.91 billion, verified as $141.71 x 119.32 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 property revenue | $2.209 billion | MAA FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis financials cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | $443.2 million in MAA release, $446.9 million at StockAnalysis | MAA FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis financials cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 Core FFO per diluted share | $8.74 | MAA FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and Core FFO | $553.7 million revenue, $2.13 Core FFO per diluted share | MAA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 same-store operating trend | Revenue -0.4%, expenses +1.3%, NOI -1.3%, occupancy 95.5%, turnover 39.9% | MAA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 Core FFO guidance | $8.35 to $8.71 per diluted share, midpoint $8.53 | MAA FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Debt and liquidity | $5.7 billion total debt, 4.5x Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDAre, $839.2 million combined cash and revolver capacity | MAA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $71.53 million | MAA Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis balance sheet cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| Share statistics | 119.32 million shares outstanding, 116.38 million share class | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 42.94x TTM EPS, 17.00x price to FFO, 2.98x book value, 7.64x sales, 4.32% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $132.96, 200-day MA $132.48, RSI 63.90, beta 0.73, 20-day average volume 991,604 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Support and resistance | Support $126.27 to $128.89, resistance $145.83 and $149.97 to $150.16 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Leadership transition | Brad Hill became CEO on April 1, 2025; H. Eric Bolton, Jr. became Executive Chairman | MAA 2026 proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
This MAA AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if interest rates, apartment supply, rental demand, FFO, cap rates, or market sentiment change.
