Leidos Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LDOS AI stock analysis currently reads Leidos Holdings as a scaled government technology, defense, intelligence, health, homeland security, and commercial infrastructure contractor with durable mission demand but elevated debt and contract risk. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LDOS closed near $115.60 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market value near $14.54 billion. The bullish case rests on a trailing PE near 10.6, free cash flow near $1.86 billion, FY2026 revenue consensus near $18.2 billion, and a board-authorized share repurchase program, while the caution is that the stock sits well below its 200-day moving average near $160, debt remains near $6.9 billion, and analyst price targets have been cut through July.
Current price
$115.60
Market cap
$14.54 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Government technology and defense services compounder with durable mission demand, a low headline valuation, and elevated leverage and contract risk
Trend status
Stabilizing but weak: price is above the 50-day average yet well below the 200-day average after a 28% 52-week drawdown
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Leidos sells mission-critical digital modernization, cyber, intelligence, defense, health, homeland security, aviation, and infrastructure services to government and commercial customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from security clearances, contract incumbency, mission knowledge, certified delivery teams, agency relationships, and scale across complex federal programs. | High |
| Management | CEO Tom Bell is executing the NorthStar 2030 strategy, expanding growth pillars, managing debt after the Entrust acquisition, and returning cash through dividends and a newly authorized up to 20 million share buyback. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 3.07% to $17.174 billion and FY2025 net income rose 15.47% to $1.448 billion. TTM revenue was $17.33 billion with TTM EPS near $10.93 as of April 3, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $115.60, verified math shows about 10.57x TTM EPS, 2.90x book value, 7.82x free cash flow per share, 0.84x sales, and a 1.49% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | LDOS is above the 50-day moving average near $113.99 but well below the 200-day moving average near $159.86, with RSI near 57.51 and a 52-week change near negative 28.22%. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-to-high because Leidos has sticky mission demand but also total debt near $6.94 billion, government budget exposure, protest risk, cyber risk, fixed-price execution risk, and healthcare portfolio pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on execution, policy, rates, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. LDOS looks statistically inexpensive, but the stock needs evidence that revenue and cash flow continue to grow while debt is controlled. | Medium |
LDOS AI stock forecast
The LDOS AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $115.60 stock price, $10.93 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $187.50 in a bull case, $122.90 in a base case, and $72.00 in a bear case before dividends. Analyst price targets ranged from $110 to $225 with a consensus target near $150.67.
$180 to $195
More likely if FY2026 revenue tracks the near $18.2 billion consensus, EPS grows at a high-single-digit rate, free cash flow stays strong, AI and intelligence partnerships expand, and investors rerate LDOS toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$118 to $128
More likely if EPS grows at a mid-single-digit rate, free cash flow remains near TTM levels near $1.86 billion, debt begins to decline, and the market values LDOS around 10x to 11x earnings.
$66 to $77
More likely if government award timing slows, healthcare portfolio pressure persists, fixed-price contracts compress margins, debt stays elevated, or the stock is valued closer to a stressed services multiple near 7x earnings.
LDOS AI technical analysis
LDOS AI technical analysis is stabilizing but weak as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $115.60 close on July 31, 2026, a 52-week range of $98.86 to $205.77, a 50-day moving average near $113.99, a 200-day moving average near $159.86, and RSI near 57.51. Price sits above the 50-day average but far below the 200-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $115.60 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 31, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $111 to $114 | This zone combines the recent daily low near $111.00 and the 50-day moving average near $113.99 as the first risk line. |
| Deeper support | $99 to $104 | The 52-week low near $98.86 and the lower July consolidation zone mark the next important downside reference. |
| Near resistance | $160 zone | The 200-day moving average near $159.86 is the major repair zone after the 2026 drawdown. |
| 50-day moving average | $113.99 | Price is above this short-term trend marker, which supports a tactical stabilization read. |
| 200-day moving average | $159.86 | Price remains far below this long-term trend marker, so the broader technical setup is not repaired. |
| Momentum | RSI 57.51 | RSI is positive but not extreme. Follow-through above the 200-day average would matter more than one strong daily signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.35 million shares | A move back toward $130 should be judged against participation because defense services stocks can gap on contract or budget headlines. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.55 | LDOS has lower market beta, but earnings, award protests, federal budget events, and acquisition updates can still move the stock sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $104 | A close below the $104 zone would weaken the current stabilization attempt and shift focus back toward the $99 area. |
LDOS AI trading strategy
The LDOS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with the August 4, 2026 earnings call, revenue and EPS consensus, free cash flow, the share repurchase program, debt reduction, and valuation discipline.
Watch for LDOS to build a base above the $116 to $120 area with convincing volume while the August 4 earnings call confirms FY2026 revenue and EPS consensus, margin discipline, and cash flow progress.
Treat a failed recovery followed by a close below $111 as a warning. A close below $104 weakens the setup and points back toward the $99 area.
If LDOS pulls back toward $104 to $111 without a cut to revenue or EPS consensus, cash flow guidance, or backlog quality, compare the reset price with the base scenario and debt trajectory.
Do not average down only because the PE looks low. Require evidence that contract execution, cash conversion, and leverage are improving.
Track the August 4, 2026 earnings call, FY2026 revenue consensus near $18.24 billion, FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus near $12.34, TTM free cash flow near $1.86 billion, total debt near $6.94 billion, segment margins, and buyback execution.
Lower the rating if free cash flow falls while debt stays elevated, if fixed-price programs pressure margins, or if government budget timing causes cash conversion to lag.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Leidos because sensitive government, defense, intelligence, health, aviation, and infrastructure missions need reliable systems integration, cyber, software, analytics, and managed services delivered inside regulated environments.
LDOS benefits from classified access, federal contract incumbency, technical delivery records, cleared labor, agency relationships, and scale. The moat is strongest where mission knowledge and procurement trust matter more than a generic technology stack.
The thesis fails if free cash flow stalls while debt stays high, federal budget priorities shift, award protests delay work, healthcare pressure persists, or fixed-price contracts create cost overruns.
Tom Bell has emphasized NorthStar 2030, speed, technology insertion, and enterprise learning. The key management test is converting large contract demand into free cash flow while keeping acquisition leverage under control and executing the new buyback.
LDOS sits in long-duration trends: defense modernization, intelligence analytics, cyber resilience, air traffic systems, public-sector digital transformation, health IT, and utility infrastructure. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At 10.57x TTM EPS and 7.82x free cash flow per share, LDOS screens cheaper than many defense technology peers. Margin of safety depends on whether cash generation, debt reduction, and backlog conversion stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDOS quote reference | $115.60 closing price as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $14.54 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $115.60 x 125.79 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 125.79 million shares outstanding, down 3.90% year over year | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $17.33 billion TTM revenue and $1.41 billion TTM net income as of April 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis LDOS financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $17.174 billion revenue, up 3.07%, and $1.448 billion net income, up 15.47% | StockAnalysis LDOS financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | $1.99 billion operating cash flow and $1.86 billion free cash flow, or $14.78 per share | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 results | $4.400 billion revenue, $335 million net income, and $2.56 diluted EPS for the quarter ended April 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis LDOS quarterly financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $457 million cash and cash equivalents, total debt near $6.94 billion, and book value of $5.06 billion | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast | Consensus Buy with a $150.67 average target from 17 analysts, range of $110 to $225; FY2026 revenue consensus near $18.24 billion and FY2026 adjusted EPS near $12.34 | StockAnalysis LDOS forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 57.51, 50-day MA $113.99, 200-day MA $159.86, beta 0.55, 52-week range $98.86 to $205.77 | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and buyback | Annual dividend of $1.72 with a 1.49% yield, and a board authorization to repurchase up to 20 million shares announced July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis LDOS overview and PRNewswire | August 2, 2026 |
This LDOS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, contracts, budgets, rates, or market sentiment change.
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