Leidos Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LDOS AI stock analysis currently reads Leidos Holdings as a scaled government technology, defense, intelligence, health, homeland security, and commercial infrastructure contractor with improving earnings power but meaningful contract and balance-sheet risk. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, LDOS closed near $108.57 with a verified market value near $13.66 billion. The bullish case rests on $48.4 billion of Q1 2026 backlog, FY2026 revenue guidance of $18.0 billion to $18.4 billion, free cash flow strength, and a valuation near 9.93x TTM EPS. The caution is that the stock remains below its 200-day moving average, debt rose after the Entrust acquisition, and government budget timing can change quickly.
Current price
$108.57
Market cap
$13.66 billion verified market cap
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Government technology and defense services compounder with strong backlog, low headline valuation, and leverage-plus-contract risk
Trend status
Mixed technical trend: price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Leidos sells mission-critical digital modernization, cyber, intelligence, defense, health, homeland security, aviation, and infrastructure services to government and commercial customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from security clearances, contract incumbency, mission knowledge, certified delivery teams, agency relationships, and scale across complex federal programs. | High |
| Management | CEO Tom Bell is executing NorthStar 2030, expanding growth pillars, integrating Entrust, and using cash flow for dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, and debt management. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 3% to $17.174 billion and FY2025 net income rose 17% to $1.462 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 4% to $4.400 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $108.57, verified math shows about 9.93x TTM EPS, 2.80x book value, 7.55x free cash flow per share, and a 1.58% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | LDOS is above the 50-day moving average near $104.66 but below the 200-day moving average near $115.77, with RSI near 59.15. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because Leidos has sticky mission demand but also higher debt after Entrust, customer budget exposure, protest risk, cyber risk, and fixed-price execution risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on execution, policy, rates, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. LDOS looks statistically inexpensive, but the stock needs evidence that backlog converts to cash while debt is controlled. | Medium |
LDOS AI stock forecast
The LDOS AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $108.57 stock price, $10.93 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $179.00 in a bull case, $122.90 in a base case, and $67.70 in a bear case before dividends.
$170 to $185
More likely if FY2026 revenue tracks the $18.0 billion to $18.4 billion guide, backlog conversion improves, Intelligence & Digital keeps growing, Entrust integration adds utility infrastructure demand, and investors rerate LDOS toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
$118 to $128
More likely if EPS grows at a mid-single-digit rate, free cash flow remains near management guidance, debt reduction begins after the acquisition step-up, and the market values LDOS around 10x earnings.
$62 to $72
More likely if government award timing slows, fixed-price contracts compress margins, Entrust integration or the security products joint venture distracts management, debt stays elevated, or the stock is valued closer to a stressed services multiple.
LDOS AI technical analysis
LDOS AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $108.57 close on July 7, 2026 and market cap near $13.66 billion. Investing.com showed a neutral daily technical signal, RSI near 59.145, 50-day moving average near $104.66, 200-day moving average near $115.77, and a Fibonacci pivot reference near $107.83.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $108.57 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 7, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Immediate support | $107.80 to $108.00 | This zone uses the Investing.com Fibonacci pivot reference near $107.83 and the latest close as the first risk line. |
| Deeper support | $104 to $105 | The 50-day moving average near $104.66 is the next important short-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $115 to $116 | The 200-day moving average near $115.77 is the first major repair zone after the recent drawdown. |
| 50-day moving average | $104.66 | Price is above this short-term trend marker, which supports a tactical stabilization read. |
| 200-day moving average | $115.77 | Price remains below this long-term trend marker, so the broader technical setup is not fully repaired. |
| Momentum | RSI 59.145 | RSI is positive but not extreme. Follow-through above the 200-day average would matter more than one strong daily signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.99 million shares | A breakout above $116 should be judged against participation because defense services stocks can gap on contract or budget headlines. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.55 | LDOS has lower market beta, but earnings, award protests, federal budget events, and acquisition updates can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $104 | A close below the 50-day moving average zone would weaken the current stabilization attempt and shift focus back to downside risk. |
LDOS AI trading strategy
The LDOS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with August 4, 2026 earnings, backlog conversion, contract awards, free cash flow, Entrust integration, debt reduction, and valuation discipline.
Watch for LDOS to close above the $115 to $116 resistance zone with convincing volume while earnings confirm FY2026 guidance, backlog quality, margin discipline, and cash flow progress.
Treat a failed move above the 200-day average followed by a close below $108 as a warning. A close below $104 weakens the setup.
If LDOS pulls back toward $104 to $108 without a cut to EPS guidance, cash flow guidance, or backlog quality, compare the reset price with the base scenario and debt trajectory.
Do not average down only because the PE looks low. Require evidence that contract execution, cash conversion, and leverage are improving.
Track August 4 earnings, FY2026 revenue guidance of $18.0 billion to $18.4 billion, non-GAAP EPS guidance of $12.10 to $12.50, operating cash flow guidance near $1.80 billion, backlog near $48.4 billion, debt after Entrust, and segment margins.
Lower the rating if backlog falls while debt remains elevated, if fixed-price programs pressure margins, or if government budget timing causes cash conversion to lag.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Leidos because sensitive government, defense, intelligence, health, aviation, and infrastructure missions need reliable systems integration, cyber, software, analytics, and managed services delivered inside regulated environments.
LDOS benefits from classified access, federal contract incumbency, technical delivery records, cleared labor, agency relationships, and scale. The moat is strongest where mission knowledge and procurement trust matter more than a generic technology stack.
The thesis fails if backlog converts at weak margins, federal budget priorities shift, award protests delay work, Entrust integration absorbs cash, debt remains high, or fixed-price contracts create cost overruns.
Tom Bell has emphasized NorthStar 2030, speed, technology insertion, and enterprise learning. The key management test is converting large contract demand into free cash flow while keeping acquisition leverage under control.
LDOS sits in long-duration trends: defense modernization, intelligence analytics, cyber resilience, air traffic systems, public-sector digital transformation, health IT, and utility infrastructure. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At 9.93x TTM EPS and 7.55x free cash flow per share, LDOS screens cheaper than many defense technology peers. Margin of safety depends on whether cash generation, debt reduction, and backlog conversion stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDOS quote reference | $108.57 closing price as of July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.66 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $108.57 x 125.79 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 125.79 million shares outstanding, down 3.90% year over year | StockAnalysis LDOS statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $17.174 billion revenue and $1.462 billion net income, cross-validated with 0% variance | Leidos FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.63 billion free cash flow and 104% free cash flow conversion | Leidos FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $4.400 billion revenue, $335 million net income, $2.56 diluted EPS, and $3.13 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Leidos Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog | $48.4 billion backlog, including $9.6 billion funded backlog | Leidos Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $457 million cash and cash equivalents and $6.3 billion debt after Entrust financing | Leidos Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $18.0B to $18.4B revenue, $12.10 to $12.50 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and about $1.80B operating cash flow | Leidos Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Neutral daily signal, RSI 59.145, 50-day MA $104.66, 200-day MA $115.77 | Investing.com LDOS technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This LDOS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, contracts, budgets, rates, or market sentiment change.
