Jefferies Financial Group Inc. research snapshot
JEF AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Jefferies Financial Group as a pure-play global investment banking and capital markets firm with record Q2 fiscal 2026 investment banking revenues, but a stock that fell short of the EPS consensus and still carries cycle, investigation, and credit-mark risk. The stock closed at $54.60 on July 31, 2026, up from the prior snapshot, with a market capitalization near $12.59 billion as reported by StockAnalysis.com on a 230.55 million share count. Clients pay for advisory, equity and debt underwriting, equities and fixed income trading, prime services, and asset management rather than for a deposit-funded bank franchise. The JEF AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single target because investment banking backlog conversion, trading conditions, compensation, credit marks, legal overhangs, and valuation multiples can reset quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$54.60
Market cap
$12.59 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Pure-play investment bank with record Q2 investment banking revenues, reasonable valuation and steady capital returns, offset by an EPS miss and an investigation overhang
Trend status
Neutral to mixed, trading above the 200-day average near $53.54 and the 100-day near $50.15 but below the 50-day near $55.23, with RSI near 48
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Jefferies is a pure-play investment banking and capital markets platform where corporations, sponsors, and institutional clients pay for advisory, equity and debt underwriting, equities and fixed income trading, prime services, and asset management. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand trust with sponsors and corporates, banker relationships, equities market-share gains, balance-sheet capacity for capital markets, and independence from a large deposit bank. The moat is real but people-centric and cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Richard Handler and President Brian Friedman have long tenure, high insider alignment historically, and an active capital-return record through a $0.40 quarterly dividend and buybacks, while still facing credit-mark, legal, and expense execution tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net revenues were about $7.34 billion and net income about $631 million. Q2 fiscal 2026 net revenues rose 35% year over year to $2.21 billion with record investment banking net revenues of about $1.21 billion, while TTM revenue reached about $8.34 billion with net income near $797 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $54.60, the trailing PE is about 15.25x, forward PE about 13.04x, price to book about 1.05x, price to tangible book about 1.42x, and the dividend yield about 2.93% using a $1.60 annualized dividend. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above its 200-day average near $53.54 and 100-day near $50.15 but below its 50-day near $55.23, 20-day near $54.76, and 5-day near $55.65, with 14-day RSI near 48.37 and weak ADX near 14.53. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are capital markets cyclicality, slower M&A and IPO windows, trading revenue mean-reversion, the Q2 EPS miss, the July 2026 investigation, the Western Alliance lawsuit, compensation inflation, credit or merchant-banking marks such as the Q1 private credit losses, and key-person talent attrition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts and math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and Barchart. Medium for the forecast because JEF earnings can change fast with deal volumes, market volatility, underwriting windows, credit conditions, and legal developments. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Jefferies has a durable franchise, a reasonable valuation near book value, and a Buy consensus with an average target near $61.33, but the current stock needs sustained investment banking momentum and controlled expenses to justify upside. | Medium |
JEF AI stock forecast
The JEF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $54.60 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $3.56 produced a bullish value near $86.60, a base value near $62.80, and a bearish value near $35.60 before dividends, using EPS growth of 15%, 8%, and 0% and exit multiples of 16x, 14x, and 10x. The range is wide because investment banking, equities trading, fixed income, credit marks, legal overhangs, and valuation multiples are all cyclical, and the analyst consensus average target sits near $61.33.
$80 to $90
More likely if advisory and underwriting backlogs convert, equities and prime services keep taking share, fixed income stays constructive, the EPS miss fades into better execution, expense growth stays controlled, credit and legal marks stay contained, and the market rewards JEF with a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$58 to $66
More likely if EPS grows at a mid-single to high-single-digit rate, investment banking remains solid but not peak, trading normalizes, capital returns continue, and JEF trades near a low-teens earnings multiple close to book value, in line with the consensus target of about $61.33.
$30 to $42
More likely if deal volumes slow, trading revenues fade, expenses stay elevated after the miss, the investigation or the Western Alliance matter escalates, credit or legacy marks reappear after the Q1 losses, or the market prices JEF closer to a high-single-digit earnings multiple.
JEF AI technical analysis
JEF AI technical analysis is neutral-to-cautious as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $54.60 on July 31, 2026, with a 52-week range of $35.53 to $71.04. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com placed the stock above the 200-day moving average near $53.54 and the 100-day near $50.15 but below the 50-day near $55.23, the 20-day near $54.76, and the 5-day near $55.65, with 14-day RSI near 48.37 and a weak 14-day ADX near 14.53, so the setup is not a clean breakout trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $54.60 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $53 to $54 | The 200-day moving average near $53.54 and the recent consolidation band form the first support area to monitor. |
| Secondary support | $49 to $51 | The 100-day moving average near $50.15 and the round number near $50 create a deeper support zone if capital markets sentiment weakens. |
| Near resistance | $55.2 to $56.5 | The 50-day moving average near $55.23 and the 5-day near $55.65 form the first reclaim zone above the July close. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $54.76, 50-day $55.23, 100-day $50.15, 200-day $53.54 | Price sits above the 200-day and 100-day but below the 20-day, 50-day, and 5-day, which supports a neutral rather than strong uptrend read. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48, ADX near 14.5 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 48.37 with weak ADX near 14.53 and -DI above +DI, so momentum is soft and slightly negative rather than oversold. |
| Volume | About 1.7 million to 1.8 million shares average | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com put 20-day average volume near 1.78 million and 1.74 million shares, the liquidity baseline for judging breakouts or breakdowns. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.51, 14-day historical volatility about 37% | Barchart reported beta near 1.51 and 14-day historical volatility near 36.9%, so JEF can move more than the market when capital markets risk appetite changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $53, then $50 | A close below the 200-day area near $53.54 would weaken the mean-reversion case. A break toward the mid-$40s to $50 would damage the longer setup. |
JEF AI trading strategy
The JEF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a pure-play investment banking and capital markets stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, earnings dates, deal-activity commentary, credit marks, legal developments, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for JEF to reclaim and hold the $55.2 to $56.5 moving average cluster on above-average volume, improving execution after the EPS miss, and broader financial sector strength before treating the current base as a new uptrend.
A failed reclaim that rolls over under the 50-day average, or a breakout that fails while broker and bank stocks weaken, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If JEF pulls back toward $53 to $54 near the 200-day average without deterioration in advisory backlog, equities franchise commentary, capital returns, or balance-sheet risk, compare the price move with the earnings thesis rather than chase strength.
Do not treat the Jefferies brand as a substitute for stop discipline because deal volumes, trading P&L, legal headlines, and investor risk appetite can change quickly.
Track investment banking net revenues, advisory versus underwriting mix, equities and fixed income results, prime balances, compensation ratio, book value and tangible book, buybacks, dividend, ROATE, credit or merchant-banking marks, and any updates on the July investigation or the Western Alliance matter.
Reduce confidence if backlog conversion slows, expenses keep outrunning revenue, trading revenues normalize hard, credit marks reappear, legal overhangs grow, or valuation stays elevated while EPS estimates fall.
Investment research summary
Jefferies helps corporations, financial sponsors, and institutions raise capital, complete M&A, trade equities and fixed income, access prime services, and invest through asset management products.
The moat is built from banker relationships, sponsor coverage depth, equities market-share gains, capital markets execution, and a pure-play identity that clients use as an alternative to universal banks. It must be renewed through talent retention every year.
The thesis fails if deal volumes dry up, trading revenues mean-revert, compensation stays high after soft earnings, the July investigation or the Western Alliance matter escalates, credit or legacy investments produce new marks after the Q1 private credit losses, or star bankers leave for competitors.
Richard Handler and Brian Friedman have run a long-cycle build-out of Jefferies into a full-service investment bank. Capital returns through a $0.40 quarterly dividend and buybacks are clear, while credit-mark discipline, legal overhangs, and expense control remain live tests.
JEF benefits from long-running demand for M&A advice, equity and debt issuance, electronic equities trading, and sponsor activity, but the industry remains tightly tied to risk appetite, rates, and IPO or deal windows.
Trading near book value with a low-teens forward multiple leaves less multiple compression risk than peak-cycle peers, and the consensus average target near $61.33 sits about 12% above the last close, but margin of safety still depends on earnings power not rolling over. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while backlog, capital returns, and execution stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JEF price | $54.60 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 0.89% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $12.59 billion, verified as $54.60 x 230.55 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis.com with 0.02% deviation; SEC EDGAR XBRL shows 203.39 million common shares outstanding at May 31, 2026, and the company press release reported 194.1 million voting common shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 230.55 million per StockAnalysis.com S&P data, 203.39 million common shares per SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-Q, and 194.1 million voting common shares per the Q2 2026 press release | StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net revenues | About $7.34 billion, up from about $7.01 billion in FY2024 | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $631 million annual net income on Macrotrends and StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 results | $2,206 million net revenues up 35% year over year, $226 million net income attributable to common shareholders, $1.02 diluted EPS versus a $1.24 consensus, and record investment banking net revenues of about $1.21 billion, matching the sum of advisory, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting | Jefferies Q2 2026 press release, BusinessWire, and StockAnalysis.com quarterly data | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of about $8.34 billion up 21.4%, TTM net income of about $797 million, TTM EPS of $3.56, TTM operating cash flow of about $2.01 billion, and free cash flow of about $1.78 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value and capital return | Book value per common share $51.95, quarterly dividend $0.40 with an August 18, 2026 ex-dividend date, and an annualized dividend of $1.60 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.25x trailing PE, 13.04x forward PE, 1.05x book value, 1.42x tangible book, 7.08x price to free cash flow, and 2.93% dividend yield using $3.56 TTM EPS and a $1.60 annualized dividend | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus across 6 analysts with an average target of $61.33, a median of $62, a low of $46, and a high of $83, including Goldman Sachs at $64 on July 6, UBS at $65, Oppenheimer at $83, BMO at $60, and Morgan Stanley at $50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average near $55.23, 20-day near $54.76, 100-day near $50.15, 200-day near $53.54, 5-day near $55.65, 14-day RSI near 48.37, 14-day ADX near 14.53, 14-day historical volatility near 36.9%, and a 52-week range of $35.53 to $71.04 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.66 million shares short, about 2.02% of shares outstanding, about 1.74 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Legal and corporate developments | Portnoy Law Firm announced an investigation on July 13, 2026; Jefferies priced EUR 850 million of 4.500% senior notes due 2033 in July; Jefferies filed a lawsuit against Western Alliance over a frozen account, per Bloomberg, in early July 2026; and Q1 2026 earnings took losses related to First Brands and MFS | StockAnalysis.com news feed, BusinessWire, and Barron's via StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This JEF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market prices, legal developments, and your own due diligence.
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