Evercore Inc. research snapshot
EVR AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Evercore as the premier independent investment banking and advisory franchise with record Q2 and first half 2026 results, but with the stock in a technical pullback after a big cycle run. The stock closed at $320.56 on July 31, 2026, with market capitalization near $13.27 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $320.56 times 41.38 million shares outstanding with 0.04% deviation against the reported figure. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, delivered record adjusted net revenues of about $1.0 billion, up 19% year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.91, up 20%, with GAAP net revenues of $990 million, operating income of $147 million, and GAAP EPS of $2.32. First half adjusted net revenues were about $2.4 billion, up 56%, and first half adjusted EPS was $10.48, up 77%, with adjusted operating margins of 22.7% for the half. Advisory fees were about $776 million in the quarter, up 11%, underwriting fees were $97 million, up 201% in the best quarter ever for that business, and non-M&A businesses generated more than 40% of revenue over the last twelve months. Management said backlog sits near record levels, equity markets hit all-time highs during the quarter, and the firm expects a strong second half with continued activity into next year. The stock has still corrected from the 52-week high of $388.71 to $320.56, sitting below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 42, even though consensus analyst targets average $369 with a Buy rating across 11 analysts. Risks include M&A volume mean-reversion, the Q2 adjusted EPS print that came in below consensus, rising non-compensation costs at a 17.5% ratio in the quarter, talent cost inflation, key-person risk, and a premium valuation of about 18.1x trailing GAAP EPS and 16.4x forward earnings. This page is an information tool with scenario ranges, not investment advice.
Current price
$320.56
Market cap
$13.27 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Record advisory franchise in a late-cycle pullback
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Evercore is a pure-play independent advisory and wealth platform where corporations, boards, and sponsors pay for senior banker judgment on M&A, restructuring, equity and debt capital markets, research, and private wealth, with record Q2 2026 adjusted net revenues near $1.0 billion up 19%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, senior talent density, long client relationships, and independence from a lending book, not from network effects or hard IP. The moat is real but people-centric and must be renewed deal by deal. | Medium-high |
| Management | John S. Weinberg is chairman and CEO and has led since February 2022. In the first half of 2026 the firm returned $823 million to shareholders, including $734 million of repurchases at an average price near $325, and added 19 senior managing directors year to date. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 adjusted net revenues of about $1.0 billion were up 19% and adjusted EPS of $2.91 up 20%, while first half adjusted revenues of about $2.4 billion were up 56% and adjusted EPS of $10.48 up 77%, with record advisory, underwriting, commissions, and wealth management contributions. | High |
| Valuation | At $320.56, financial_rigor.py calculates about 18.10x trailing EPS of $17.71, about 16.36x forward EPS of $19.59, 6.96x book value of $46.08, about 8.71x free cash flow of $36.80, and a 1.11% forward dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Barchart showed EVR below its 5-day average near $323.75, 20-day average near $336.57, 50-day average near $344.55, 100-day average near $331.09, and 200-day average near $331.41, with 14-day RSI near 42.03 and 14-day ADX near 12.78, signaling a corrective phase after the rally to $388.71. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are M&A and capital markets cyclicality, a Q2 adjusted EPS print below consensus, non-compensation expenses at a 17.5% ratio in the quarter, compensation ratio pressure, key banker departures, large-deal timing, and multiple compression after a strong run. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts and math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript. Medium for the forecast because advisory revenue can swing sharply with deal closings and risk appetite. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Evercore has an elite franchise, but the current price already reflects a strong deal environment and the stock is trading below its major moving averages, so the upside depends on durable activity and disciplined costs. | Medium |
EVR AI stock forecast
The EVR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $320.56 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $19.59. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $208, a base area near $384, and a bullish area near $550 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of negative 4%, 7%, and 12% and exit multiples of 12x, 16x, and 20x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$520 to $580
More likely if M&A and ECM activity stay strong, backlog converts as expected, large strategic transactions remain elevated, non-compensation growth normalizes, compensation ratios keep falling, and investors reward EVR with a higher multiple on double-digit EPS growth.
$360 to $420
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid-single to high-single digit pace as the cycle normalizes, capital returns continue, the firm holds its advisory share gains, and the market keeps the multiple near the current forward area.
$190 to $230
More likely if M&A volumes fall, large deals slip or cancel, compensation and non-compensation costs absorb the upside, key talent leaves, sponsor and middle market activity stays weak, or investors reprice EVR toward a low double-digit multiple during a risk-off period.
EVR AI technical analysis
EVR AI technical analysis is in a corrective pullback as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $320.56 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day average near $323.75, 20-day average near $336.57, 50-day average near $344.55, 100-day average near $331.09, and 200-day average near $331.41. Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 42.03, 14-day ADX near 12.78 with negative directional index above positive, 14-day ATR near $14.18, and 20-day average volume near 514,000 shares. The 52-week range from public quotes was about $265.87 to $388.71.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $320.56 | July 31, 2026 close used for this static page and market cap verification. |
| Near support | $300 to $310 | The psychological $300 round number and the prior consolidation zone are the first support band below price. |
| Secondary support | $266 to $285 | The 52-week low near $265.87 and the surrounding band are deeper support if the stock breaks $300. |
| Near resistance | $323.75 to $337 | The 5-day average near $323.75 and the cluster of the 100-day near $331.09, 200-day near $331.41, and 20-day near $336.57 form the first overhead supply zones. |
| Major resistance | $344.55 to $389 | The 50-day average near $344.55 and the 52-week high near $388.71 define the major upside bands for a trend recovery. |
| 50-day SMA | $344.55 | Barchart reported EVR trading below the 50-day moving average on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day SMA | $331.41 | Barchart reported EVR trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a negative medium-term signal. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 42.03 | Momentum is soft and below the neutral 50 line, not oversold by the common 30 RSI threshold, with 14-day ADX near 12.78 indicating a weak or ranging trend. |
| Volume | About 514,000 average shares | The 20-day average volume of roughly 514,000 shares is a baseline for judging breakouts and failed rebounds. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR $14.18 | Normal daily movement is wide enough that position sizing should use ATR rather than a fixed dollar stop alone. |
| Invalidation | Close below $300, then $266 | A close below the $300 psychological support would confirm trend damage. A move below the 52-week low near $265.87 would signal broader distribution. |
EVR AI trading strategy
The EVR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical independent advisory firm. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings dates, M&A volume indicators, banker hiring news, capital return updates, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for EVR to reclaim the 20-day average near $336.57 and then clear the $344.55 zone on above-average volume with constructive advisory backlog or broader financial sector strength.
A close back below the 20-day average, or a breakout that fails while capital markets stocks weaken, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If EVR pulls back toward the $300 area or the $266 to $285 band without a deterioration in backlog conversion, compensation discipline, or peer deal activity, compare the price move with the earnings thesis rather than buying only on brand quality.
Do not treat boutique brand prestige as a substitute for stop discipline because advisory stocks can reprice quickly when deal volume or risk appetite changes.
Track advisory fees, underwriting fees, commissions, asset management fees, operating margin, compensation ratio, non-compensation ratio, headcount and senior banker productivity, cash and investment securities, notes payable, dividend growth, and buyback pace.
Reduce confidence if large deals slip, revenue growth reverts hard while costs stay sticky, key bankers leave, or valuation remains elevated while TTM EPS growth decelerates.
Investment research summary
Evercore gets paid when companies, boards, sponsors, and wealthy clients need independent advice on mergers, acquisitions, restructuring, capital raising, research, and private wealth management. Clients pay for senior judgment and trusted execution, not for a large lending balance sheet.
The moat is brand reputation, senior talent density, multi-year boardroom relationships, and independence that can matter in sensitive strategic situations. Switching costs are soft because boards can hire another advisor, so Evercore must keep winning mandates deal by deal.
The thesis fails if M&A volumes collapse, compensation and non-compensation costs absorb too much of the upside, star bankers leave for rivals, a few large deals dominate and then disappear, or investors decide a high teens multiple is too rich for a pure cyclical people business in a late-cycle pullback.
John S. Weinberg is chairman and CEO and has led since February 2022. Capital allocation has emphasized dividends and buybacks, including $823 million returned in the first half of 2026 with $734 million in repurchases near a $325 average, and talent investment has brought 19 new senior managing directors year to date. The ongoing test is productivity and cost discipline as the firm scales.
Independent advisory has taken share from traditional banks over many years as clients seek conflict-light advice. Large-cap strategic M&A is running above prior year levels, equity markets hit all-time highs in Q2 2026, and AI is driving strategic dialogue, but sponsor and middle market activity still runs below historical averages, keeping the short-term path highly cyclical.
At about 18.1x trailing GAAP EPS and about 16.4x forward EPS, EVR is priced as a premium advisory franchise rather than a distressed bank. Margin of safety improves if the stock holds the $300 area while advisory activity and capital returns stay healthy, or if the multiple compresses closer to the analyst low target of $303.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVR price | $320.56 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.27 billion, verified as $320.56 x 41.38 million shares outstanding with 0.04% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.38 million total shares outstanding; 38.68 million current share class; adjusted diluted share count of 43.7 million for Q2 2026, down over 730,000 from Q1 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net revenues near $1.0 billion, a record Q2 up 19%; adjusted diluted EPS $2.91 up 20%; adjusted operating income $190 million up 21%; adjusted operating margin 19% | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net revenues $990 million, operating income $147 million, GAAP EPS $2.32 | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| First half 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net revenues about $2.4 billion up 56%; adjusted operating income $544 million up 99%; adjusted EPS $10.48 up 77%; adjusted operating margin 22.7% | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue lines | Advisory fees about $776 million up 11%; underwriting fees $97 million up 201%; commissions and related $64 million up 9%; adjusted asset management and administration fees about $25 million up 15%; adjusted other revenue about $39 million | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| Compensation and non-comp | Adjusted compensation ratio 63.5% for Q2, down about 190 basis points year over year; adjusted non-compensation expenses $175 million at a 17.5% ratio, with a 13.5% ratio for the first half | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q2 2026 returned $150 million through repurchases of about 330,000 shares and dividends; first half 2026 returned $823 million including $734 million in buybacks at an average price near $325 per share | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| Cash and investment securities | Nearly $2.4 billion in cash and investment securities as of June 30, 2026 | Evercore Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.880 billion, up about 29%, cross-checked across SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com with 0.00% deviation | Evercore FY2025 Form 10-K via SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2024 revenue | $2.996 billion, cross-checked across SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com with 0.01% deviation | Evercore FY2024 Form 10-K via SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.400 billion per SEC EDGAR XBRL, consistent with the reported Q1 result near $1.39 billion, 0.38% deviation | Evercore Q1 2026 Form 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM earnings | TTM revenue near $4.71 billion and TTM net income near $745 million with TTM diluted EPS near $17.71 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 18.10x trailing EPS, 6.96x book value, 8.71x free cash flow, 38.43% ROE proxy, and 1.11% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | About 16.36x forward EPS on the $19.59 FY2026 consensus, forward PS near 2.70, EV/EBITDA near 12.62, EV/FCF near 8.79 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $3.56 per share, 1.11% yield, $0.89 quarterly with ex-dividend date August 28, 2026, 18 years of growth, payout ratio 20.10% | StockAnalysis.com dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $369 across 11 analysts, low $303, median $375, high $391 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell out of 11 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Bank of America $435 to $389 on July 30, Goldman Sachs $399 to $376 on July 29, KBW $390 to $375 on July 30, Morgan Stanley $376 to $363 on July 30, UBS $350 to $359 on July 30 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $4.85 billion with adjusted EPS $19.59, FY2027 revenue $5.45 billion with adjusted EPS $22.73 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.18 million shares short, 2.86% of shares outstanding, 2.88 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents $985.99 million, short-term investments $1.035 billion, total debt $1.098 billion, total assets $4.314 billion, total shareholders equity $2.089 billion, book value per share near $42.30 to $46.08 depending on share count convention | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $323.75, 20-day SMA near $336.57, 50-day SMA near $344.55, 100-day SMA near $331.09, 200-day SMA near $331.41, 14-day RSI near 42.03, 14-day ADX near 12.78, 14-day ATR near $14.18 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bearish about $208, base about $384, bullish about $550 based on financial_rigor.py EPS growth and PE assumptions around the $19.59 FY2026 consensus EPS | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This EVR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, deal flow changes, talent moves, market volatility, or changes in investor risk appetite.
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