IREN LIMITED research snapshot
IREN AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads IREN LIMITED as a bitcoin miner converting itself into an AI cloud data center business, with the stock at $36.80 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $13.15 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $36.80 times 357.38 million shares outstanding with a 0.01% deviation across the Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat quote pages. On July 20, 2026 IREN announced $2.8 billion of new AI cloud contracts with leading AI developers and raised its year-end 2026 AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue target from $3.7 billion to more than $4 billion, and the stock jumped about 20% that day. But the stock remains roughly 52% below its 52-week high of $76.87 after a brutal July selloff, and the quarterly report for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, delivered $144.8 million of revenue against a consensus near $219.69 million. TTM revenue is about $757.07 million, up about 105% year over year, driven by the AI cloud segment that grew from about $2.66 million in the December 2024 quarter to about $33.64 million in the March 2026 quarter. The balance sheet carries about $2.21 billion of cash against about $3.96 billion of total debt, and TTM free cash flow is deeply negative near -$2.32 billion because capital expenditures of about $2.71 billion outpace operating cash flow near $392 million. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$36.80
Market cap
$13.15 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
AI compute optionality, high volatility
Trend status
Below all major moving averages after a sharp July 2026 selloff and partial recovery
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | IREN monetizes powered data center sites through bitcoin mining and an expanding AI cloud business, with TTM revenue near $757.07 million and a gross margin near 68.40%, but operating income is still negative near -$222.27 million. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat depends on power access, site development, cost control, operational uptime, and the ability to secure AI compute customers; $2.8 billion of new contracts show demand, but neocloud competition from CoreWeave, Nebius, TeraWulf, and others is intense. | Medium-low |
| Management | Daniel Roberts and the team signed $2.8 billion of new AI cloud contracts and raised the 2026 ARR target above $4 billion, but execution is tested by capital intensity, dilution, and contract conversion into reported revenue. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose about 105% to $757.07 million with TTM net income near $158.05 million, but that profit is lifted by bitcoin price gains, operating income is negative, the March 2026 quarter missed revenue consensus, and TTM free cash flow is about -$2.32 billion. | Medium |
| Valuation | At about 47.8x to 67.7x trailing EPS depending on EPS basis, 14.3x to 17.4x TTM sales, and roughly 19.7x EV to TTM revenue, the market prices both bitcoin exposure and AI data center optionality that can re-rate fast. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | IREN closed at $36.80 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 44.21 and a 14-day ADX near 28.97 with -DI above +DI, after falling from a $76.87 high to a $29.31 low in July. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if bitcoin economics weaken, AI cloud contracts do not convert to revenue, the AI capex cycle turns, Meta enters cloud infrastructure, dilution accelerates, short sellers press a stock that is about 26% to 30% of float short, or negative free cash flow strains financing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for the July 31, 2026 quote, market cap math, TTM financials, technical indicators, short interest, and analyst targets that cross-validated across Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, and Barchart. Lower for forward returns because bitcoin, contract conversion, and dilution can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
IREN AI stock forecast
The IREN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the July 31, 2026 close of $36.80 rather than a point target, because IREN moves on bitcoin, AI cloud contract news, capex, and financing. The bullish case requires the $4 billion ARR target to convert into revenue with stable bitcoin; the base case assumes mixed execution with continued volatility; the bearish case assumes the AI capex cycle breaks or financing strains. Analyst coverage is very bullish on average, with a consensus target near $81.73 to $82.71, but the stock trades about 52% below its 52-week high, which is why the page keeps a wide scenario spread.
$55 to $82
More likely if IREN converts the $2.8 billion contract pipeline into reported AI cloud revenue, the year-end ARR target above $4 billion stays on track, bitcoin stabilizes, dilution slows, and investors re-rate the stock toward the analyst average target near $82.
$32 to $45
More likely if AI cloud revenue keeps ramping but the March 2026 miss repeats in some quarters, bitcoin stays range-bound, dilution continues, and the stock trades in a wide band between the July low near $29 and the moving average cluster near $47 to $49.
$20 to $29
More likely if the AI capex cycle turns, Meta and other hyperscalers intensify neocloud competition, bitcoin falls sharply, AI contracts convert slower than guided, or financing and dilution pressure grows beyond operating cash flow.
IREN AI technical analysis
IREN AI technical analysis shows a stock below every major moving average as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, after a violent July. The stock fell from a 52-week high of $76.87 to a July 29, 2026 low of $29.31, bounced about 30% on July 30 after a hedge fund unwind report and a Bernstein Buy initiation, and closed July 31 at $36.80. Barchart data shows the 20-day average near $38.44, the 50-day near $49.11, the 100-day near $47.14, and the 200-day near $48.09, all above price, with 14-day RSI near 44.21 and -DI above +DI. Volatility is extreme, with a 14-day ATR near $4.58 and 14-day historical volatility near 164%, so position sizing must assume large daily swings.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.80 | Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat all show the July 31, 2026 close near $36.80, after a partial recovery from the July 29 low. |
| Near support | $33.6 to $35.2 | The 5-day moving average near $34.92 and the July 31 low near $35.16 form the first short-term support band under price. |
| July low support | $29.31 to $32.00 | The July 29, 2026 close of $29.31 with an intraday low near $28.93 is the key near-term support, with $30 acting as a round-number marker. |
| Near resistance | $38.4 to $40.8 | Barchart places the 20-day moving average near $38.44, and the July 31 intraday high of $40.82 sits just overhead. |
| Moving average resistance | $47 to $49 | The 100-day average near $47.14, 200-day near $48.09, and 50-day near $49.11 cluster here, a large overhead zone where sellers may appear. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44, -DI above +DI | Barchart shows 14-day RSI near 44.21 and a 14-day ADX near 28.97 with negative directional index above positive, signaling weak downward momentum rather than a confirmed uptrend. |
| Volume | Elevated, 63.5 million to 65.3 million shares | July 31 volume was about 63.5 million to 65.3 million shares, above the 20-day average near 47 million to 50 million, with spikes near 93 million on July 20 and 73 million on July 30 reflecting headline-driven trading. |
| Volatility | Extreme, ATR near $4.58 | Barchart shows a 14-day ATR near $4.58 or about 12.45% of price and 14-day historical volatility near 164%, so daily ranges are large and stops should be sized accordingly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $29.31 | A decisive close below the July 29 low near $29.31 would open the path toward the $20 to $29 bearish scenario zone. |
IREN AI trading strategy
The IREN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-beta stock that trades on bitcoin and AI cloud news. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for IREN to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $38.44 on strong volume and then clear the $40.82 area before treating the short-term action as a trend change, given that price is still below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages near $47 to $49.
A close below the July low near $29.31 or a failed breakout at resistance should invalidate the setup. Size positions for a 14-day ATR near $4.58.
If IREN pulls back toward the $29.31 to $35.2 support band without a thesis break, compare the price reaction with the next earnings report near August 27, 2026, ARR updates, bitcoin price, and contract conversion news before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a stock with 26% to 30% of float short and 164% historical volatility can gap in either direction.
Track the evidence that matters most: AI cloud revenue and the year-end ARR target above $4 billion, the $2.8 billion contract pipeline conversion, bitcoin price and mining economics, operating cash flow versus capital expenditures, dilution from new share issuance, and neocloud competitive moves such as Meta entering cloud infrastructure.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headlines or short squeezes without matching reported revenue and cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
IREN converts powered data center sites and renewable energy access into two revenue streams: bitcoin mining and, increasingly, AI cloud compute hosting, with the AI cloud segment growing from about $2.66 million to about $33.64 million per quarter over five quarters.
The moat is still being built. It depends on power access, site development speed, vertical integration of hardware and infrastructure, cost control, uptime, and the ability to sign and serve large AI compute customers against well-funded neocloud rivals.
The thesis fails if AI cloud contracts convert slower than guided, the AI capex cycle turns or Meta enters cloud infrastructure, bitcoin economics weaken, capital needs force heavy dilution, or negative free cash flow near -$2.32 billion strains the balance sheet.
Management signed $2.8 billion of new AI cloud contracts, raised the 2026 ARR target above $4 billion, and is pivoting capacity from bitcoin mining toward AI hosting, but the tests are reported revenue conversion, financing discipline, and dilution control.
AI compute demand is a long-duration theme and IREN is positioning as a renewable-powered AI infrastructure provider, but the same wave brings intense neocloud competition, hyperscaler entry, and questions about the durability of AI capital spending.
At about 14x to 17x TTM sales and roughly 20x EV to TTM revenue with negative free cash flow, the price embeds a large AI cloud ramp, so margin of safety is thin and depends on execution against the $4 billion ARR target.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN price | $36.80 at the July 31, 2026 close, after hours $36.72 | Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.15 billion, verified as $36.80 x 357.38 million shares with a 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 357.38 million, up about 52.27% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $14.72 to $76.87, with a July 29, 2026 low near $29.31 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance price history | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $757.07 million, up about 104.8% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and operating income | TTM net income near $158.05 million, lifted partly by bitcoin price gains, with TTM operating income about -$222.27 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results, March 2026 quarter | Revenue of $144.8 million against a consensus near $219.69 million, GAAP EPS about -$0.25 missing a -$0.22 estimate, gross margin about 72.42%, bitcoin mining revenue $111.16 million, AI cloud revenue $33.64 million | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials and MarketBeat earnings summary | August 3, 2026 |
| AI cloud revenue ramp | AI cloud segment revenue grew from about $2.66 million in the December 2024 quarter to about $33.64 million in the March 2026 quarter | StockAnalysis.com quarterly segment data | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net cash | About $2.21 billion cash, $3.96 billion total debt, and about -$1.75 billion net cash position as of the latest quarter | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Operating cash flow about $392.47 million, capital expenditures about -$2.71 billion, free cash flow about -$2.32 billion over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Gross and operating margin | TTM gross margin about 68.40%, TTM operating margin about -29.36% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta and volatility | Beta about 4.28, 14-day ATR near $4.58, 14-day historical volatility near 164% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 93.71 million shares short, about 26.22% of shares outstanding and 30.34% of float, about 2.44 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling data | August 3, 2026 |
| Contract and ARR news | On July 20, 2026 IREN announced $2.8 billion of new customer contracts with leading AI developers and raised its year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR target from $3.7 billion to more than $4 billion | IREN press release via GlobeNewswire, covered by MarketBeat and StockAnalysis news | July 20, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with an average target near $81.73 across 16 analysts on StockAnalysis.com, or $82.71 across 21 analysts on MarketBeat, with targets ranging from about $41 to $131 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and MarketBeat forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Bernstein Buy at $100 on July 30, 2026, HC Wainwright raised to $90 from $85 on July 22, 2026, Canaccord Genuity Buy at $79 on July 21, 2026, Goldman Sachs Neutral at $50 on July 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and MarketBeat analyst ratings table | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | TTM PE about 47.79x on Yahoo Finance EPS near $0.77 versus 67.74x on StockAnalysis.com EPS near $0.54, TTM price to sales about 14.3x to 17.4x, price to book about 4.71x, EV to revenue about 19.7x | Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com statistics, and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $34.92, 20-day near $38.44, 50-day near $49.11, 100-day near $47.14, 200-day near $48.09, 14-day RSI near 44.21, 14-day ADX near 28.97 with -DI above +DI | Barchart technical analysis snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Next estimated earnings report near August 27, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat company calendar | August 3, 2026 |
This IREN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, contract news, bitcoin price moves, financing events, market moves, or macro conditions.
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