MARA Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
MARA AI stock analysis currently reads MARA Holdings as a high-beta Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure company that is adding power, AI, and HPC assets alongside its large self-mining operation. At the August 3, 2026 research cutoff, the latest regular-session close was $11.32 on July 31, market capitalization was about $4.32 billion, and the stock traded below its 50-day moving average near $13.13 and just below its 200-day moving average near $11.80, with RSI near 44.6. TTM revenue was $867.8 million with a GAAP net loss of about $2.04 billion, driven mainly by non-cash Bitcoin fair-value adjustments. Q1 2026 revenue was $174.6 million with a GAAP net loss of $1.26 billion, including a $714.7 million digital asset fair-value loss, a $303.9 million receivable fair-value loss, and $45.9 million in restructuring costs. Energized hash rate reached 72.2 EH/s with about 1.9 GW of total energy capacity, and digital assets were carried at about $1.73 billion of fair value. MARA is executing the $1.5 billion Long Ridge acquisition and a new roughly 2 GW powered-land agreement with HIF in Texas. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$11.32 (July 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$4.32 billion
AI score
40 / 100
Rating
High-risk Bitcoin miner and AI infrastructure transition
Trend status
Below the 50-day average and just below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MARA monetizes Bitcoin mining, power assets, and is building AI and HPC data-center capacity. Q1 2026 revenue was $174.6 million; mining remains the primary revenue driver and AI revenue is still early. | Medium |
| Moat | The practical moat is large-scale mining infrastructure, roughly 1.9 GW of energy capacity, Bitcoin holdings, and power access. Brand, switching costs, and network effects are limited. | Medium-low |
| Management | CEO Fred Thiel and the team are managing a capital-intensive transition involving miner deployment, power infrastructure, Bitcoin holdings, the $1.5 billion Long Ridge acquisition, a HIF powered-land deal, convertible debt, and the AI data-center pivot. Execution across mining, power, and data-center buildout is the central test. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $907.1 million but GAAP net loss was $1.31 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was $174.6 million with a $1.26 billion net loss, mostly from non-cash digital asset fair-value losses, receivable fair-value losses, and restructuring. | High on reported figures |
| Valuation | At about $4.32 billion market cap, trailing P/E is not meaningful because GAAP earnings are negative. P/S was about 4.97x, P/B about 1.93x, and forward P/E near 42.6x on available data. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $11.32 was below the 50-day average near $13.13 and just below the 200-day average near $11.80. RSI near 44.6 suggests weak momentum. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Very high. Bitcoin price, network hash rate, power costs, infrastructure execution, debt service, equity dilution, and regulatory risk all create material downside exposure. Short interest is about 28.9% of shares outstanding. | High |
| AI confidence | Medium for price, filings, revenue, cash, debt, and operating metrics. Lower for future AI/HPC revenue, normalized earnings, and Bitcoin trajectory. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low. A clear operating story does not remove the uncertainty created by negative free cash flow, high debt, and Bitcoin-linked revenue volatility. | Low |
MARA AI stock forecast
The MARA AI stock forecast is presented as a scenario range, not a point target. Because reported EPS and free cash flow are negative, the three-scenario calculation used an explicitly hypothetical normalized EPS of $1.00, three years, growth assumptions of 35%, 15%, and -10%, and terminal multiples of 30x, 20x, and 12x. The resulting model points were $73.80, $30.40, and $8.70. Practical planning ranges below are anchored to the current price near $11.32 and the analyst target range of $5.50 to $30, and they are intentionally wide because normalized earnings may never appear.
$16 to $24
More likely if Bitcoin stabilizes at higher levels, network economics remain favorable, MARA closes and executes the Long Ridge and HIF power deals, AI/HPC revenue becomes recurring, construction stays on schedule, and dilution remains controlled. A reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $13.13 would support the price confirmation side of the case.
$10 to $16
More likely if Bitcoin mining remains viable, AI infrastructure revenue grows from a small base, power costs stay manageable, the Long Ridge deal closes on schedule, and the company funds operations through a mix of Bitcoin sales, debt, and equity while GAAP earnings remain volatile.
$5 to $9
More likely if Bitcoin falls, global hash rate keeps rising, power or capital costs increase, the Long Ridge or HIF projects are delayed, cash burn forces unfavorable financing, or the stock breaks below the 200-day moving average and cannot recover.
MARA AI technical analysis
MARA AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and the StockAnalysis technical snapshot last updated August 2, 2026. The static page does not fetch chart data at request time, so live moving averages, momentum, and volume should be confirmed before any trade framework is used.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.32 | Regular-session close on July 31, 2026. The intraday range was $11.07 to $12.07. |
| Near support | $10.00 to $11.00 | A zone below the current price that aligns with the post-Bitcoin-sale level and round numbers. Neither level is a guaranteed floor. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.13 | The first major recovery test. A sustained close above it would improve short-term structure. |
| 200-day moving average | $11.80 | Longer-term trend reference. The stock closed just below it, which keeps the medium-term setup fragile. |
| Resistance | $13.13 to $16.50 | The 50-day average and the area below the 52-week high define the next visible overhead zones. The 52-week high is $23.45. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.6 | Weak momentum below the neutral 50 line. RSI alone does not establish a reversal or a buy signal. |
| Volume | 49.6M average shares over 20 days | High liquidity supports execution but can also amplify false breakouts and Bitcoin-driven selloffs. |
| Volatility | Beta 5.37; 52-week range $6.66 to $23.45 | Price risk is materially higher than the broad market. Wide stops can create large losses if position size is not reduced. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $10.00 | A close below $10.00 would invalidate the constructive recovery setup and raise downside risk toward the bearish scenario band. |
MARA AI trading strategy
The MARA AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for studying a volatile Bitcoin and infrastructure equity. It is not personalized advice. Any use should include a maximum loss, current chart data, Bitcoin monitoring, and a review of new filings, including the Q2 2026 earnings call scheduled for August 6, 2026.
Wait for price to reclaim and hold the 50-day moving average near $13.13 with volume while Bitcoin remains stable and MARA confirms progress on the Long Ridge and HIF power deals. A higher low above the 200-day average would make the setup more coherent.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $10.00 invalidates the trend setup. Do not treat an intraday move above resistance as confirmation.
Study a move into the $11.00 to $10.00 zone only if the decline is not accompanied by a Bitcoin thesis break, worsening network economics, or a financing event. Compare price action with production, cash, and deal updates.
Use a predefined maximum loss and avoid averaging down solely because RSI is low. Negative cash flow and high debt can overwhelm a technical oversold reading.
Track Bitcoin produced and cost per Bitcoin, energized hash rate (72.2 EH/s), power costs, BTC holdings fair value, AI/HPC capacity, the Long Ridge and HIF closing timeline, debt maturity schedule, cash, and shares outstanding.
Lower confidence when the share price rises without matching infrastructure revenue, cash-flow improvement, or per-share value creation. Equity issuance and Bitcoin sales are key dilution and liquidity signals.
Investment research summary
Customers and counterparties pay MARA for Bitcoin mining capacity and, increasingly, for access to power and data-center infrastructure. In one sentence, MARA is attempting to transform from a pure Bitcoin miner into a diversified digital infrastructure company with mining, AI compute, and power assets.
The strongest advantages are mining scale (72.2 EH/s energized hash rate), roughly 1.9 GW of total energy capacity across 19 data centers, large Bitcoin holdings, and access to power sites. Brand pricing power, switching costs, and network effects are limited. The moat widens only if power assets become reliable, lower-cost capacity for sticky AI/HPC customers, which is what the Long Ridge and HIF deals are meant to test.
The thesis can fail through a prolonged Bitcoin drawdown, rising global hash rate, power-price pressure, AI/HPC construction delays, customer concentration, debt stress, dilution, or accounting losses that consume investor confidence. The most dangerous error is pricing future AI/HPC revenue before it becomes recurring cash flow, and Q1 2026 losses already show how sensitive GAAP results are to digital asset fair-value swings.
CEO Fred Thiel is managing a capital-intensive transition involving the $1.5 billion Long Ridge acquisition, a roughly 2 GW powered-land agreement with HIF, miner deployment, power contracts, Bitcoin treasury strategy, and the AI data-center pivot. The key management question is whether capital allocation produces durable per-share cash flow, not only larger facilities or higher headline hash rate.
Bitcoin mining is a competitive commodity-like business with halving cycles and rising difficulty risk. Large-scale AI and HPC infrastructure is a stronger long-term trend, but it requires power, cooling, networking, customers, and financing. MARA sits at that intersection and must prove it can execute the shift without losing mining discipline.
At $11.32 and about $4.32 billion of market value, the stock trades at roughly 4.97x trailing sales and 1.93x book value while trailing earnings and free cash flow are negative. The three-scenario model is an assumption exercise, not a conventional intrinsic-value estimate. The margin of safety is limited until AI/HPC cash flow and per-share economics become clearer.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARA price | $11.32 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical price and overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.32 billion, verified as $11.32 x 381.27 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap check | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 381.27 million; up 17.02% year over year on the current share-class snapshot | StockAnalysis statistics and SEC filings | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net loss | Revenue $907.1 million; GAAP net loss $1.31 billion | MARA Holdings FY2025 Form 10-K filed March 2, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net loss | Revenue $174.6 million; GAAP net loss $1.26 billion (includes $714.7M digital asset fair-value loss, $303.9M receivable fair-value loss, and $45.9M restructuring costs) | MARA Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q filed May 11, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Energized hash rate 72.2 EH/s; total energy capacity about 1.9 GW across 19 data centers; digital assets fair value about $1.73 billion | MARA Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $513.65 million; total debt about $2.46 billion; net cash about -$1.95 billion | MARA Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/S 4.97x; P/B 1.93x; forward P/E 42.60x; P/E not meaningful (negative TTM earnings) | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $13.13; 200-day MA $11.80; RSI 44.64; beta 5.37; 52-week range $6.66 to $23.45; 20-day avg volume 49.6 million; short interest about 28.9% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating; average price target $18.13 with a range of $5.50 to $30 across 13 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page based on S&P Global and TipRanks | August 3, 2026 |
This MARA AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available data and stated assumptions as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong when prices, filings, Bitcoin conditions, contracts, or macro conditions change.
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