Home BancShares, Inc. research snapshot
HOMB AI stock analysis currently reads Home BancShares, the holding company for Centennial Bank, as a well-run Sun Belt regional bank with a branch network across Arkansas, Florida, Texas, South Alabama, and New York City. As of the August 2026 data cutoff, HOMB traded near $31.07 at the July 31, 2026 close, with market capitalization near $6.23 billion. The stock just delivered record second-quarter adjusted results, completed the Mountain Commerce Bancorp acquisition, and raised its quarterly dividend, so the HOMB AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price target because regional bank earnings, credit costs, regulation, interest rates, and valuation multiples can shift quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$31.07
Market cap
$6.23 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Well-run Sun Belt regional bank with top-quartile profitability, a conservative credit culture, and a broader franchise after the Mountain Commerce Bancorp acquisition
Trend status
Uptrend: trading near the top of a 52-week range above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Home BancShares generates revenue through a traditional community and commercial bank model: net interest income on loans and deposits plus fee income from wealth management, trust services, and insurance. The model is simple, repeatable, and produced a 43.65% profit margin over the last twelve months. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from local relationships, branch density in growing Sun Belt markets, a conservative underwriting reputation, and sticky deposit bases. But the moat is narrow compared with mega-banks because switching costs for depositors and borrowers are low. | Medium |
| Management | Management delivered record adjusted revenue and net income in Q2 2026, closed the Mountain Commerce Bancorp merger, raised the quarterly dividend 9.5% to $0.23, and accelerated buybacks while keeping capital levels strong. Key-person risk is moderate given a long-tenured leadership team, but the executive bench is thinner than at larger institutions. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue TTM of about $1.10 billion and net income TTM of about $479.37 million. ROA of 2.01% and ROE of 11.11% are solid for a regional bank. Revenue growth turned positive again after the 2023 dip, and Q2 2026 set a record with the Mountain Commerce contribution. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $31.07, financial_rigor.py calculates about 12.84x EPS, 1.37x book value, 10.67% implied ROE on book value per share, 5.67x revenue, and a 2.70% trailing dividend yield. The forward annual dividend run-rate after the July raise is about $0.92, near a 2.96% yield. | High |
| Technical trend | HOMB traded near $31.07, above its 50-day moving average of $28.55 and 200-day moving average of $27.92, near the top of its 52-week range of $25.50 to $31.70. RSI near 67 and a beta of 0.67 indicate rising but below-market volatility. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are regional economic concentration, commercial real estate exposure, deposit cost pressure from larger bank competition, rate sensitivity, credit normalization, and the structural discount the market applies to regional bank stocks. The stock is also technically extended near its 52-week high. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for historical financial data and audit-verified calculations. Medium for the forecast because a regional bank stock can rerate quickly when credit, deposit competition, or local economic conditions change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. Home BancShares is a solid regional bank with strong profitability and fresh momentum from Q2, but the sector carries structural risks that are harder to model with public data, and the stock market can apply a wide valuation range to regional banks. | Low to medium |
HOMB AI stock forecast
The HOMB AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $31.07 quote and $2.42 EPS. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $47, a base value near $35, and a bearish value near $21 before dividends. The wide range reflects the sensitivity of regional bank valuations to credit cycles, rate policy, deposit competition, and market sentiment. Analyst consensus supports a $33 price target with a Buy rating from 9 analysts as of late July 2026.
$43 to $47
More likely if EPS grows near high single digits, the Mountain Commerce acquisition delivers cost and funding synergies, credit losses stay controlled, net interest margin expands or holds steady, the Sun Belt economy remains healthy, and investors apply a 14 to 15x PE multiple reflecting improved sentiment toward regional banks.
$33 to $37
More likely if EPS grows near mid single digits, consistent with 2026 consensus of about $2.51 and 2027 consensus of about $2.60, deposit costs and credit costs normalize at manageable levels, loan growth is steady but not aggressive, and the market applies about 12 to 13x earnings.
$19 to $23
More likely if regional economic weakness raises credit losses, commercial real estate stress appears, deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, merger integration disappoints, or investors reprice the regional banking sector closer to 9 to 10x earnings.
HOMB AI technical analysis
HOMB AI technical analysis was constructive as of the August 2026 data cutoff, using the July 31, 2026 close. The stock traded near $31.07, within a 52-week range of $25.50 to $31.70, above its 50-day moving average of $28.55 and 200-day moving average of $27.92, with RSI near 67 and a beta of 0.67. The trend is up but technically extended after the Q2 earnings rally.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.07 | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot from the July 31, 2026 close, the latest available close at the time of this static page generation. |
| Near support | $30.00 to $30.50 | The recent consolidation zone just below the current price and the day range low near $30.82 serve as first support. |
| Secondary support | $28.55 | The 50-day moving average sits near $28.55. A pullback that holds this zone keeps the near-term uptrend intact. |
| Deeper support | $27.90 to $28.00 | The 200-day moving average near $27.92 forms a stronger trend-defining support zone, with the 52-week low near $25.50 below it. |
| Near resistance | $31.70, then $33.00 | The 52-week high near $31.70 is the first overhead barrier. The analyst consensus target near $33 and the round $33 level form the next resistance band. |
| 50-day moving average | Above moving average | HOMB was trading above the 50-day MA near $28.55, a positive near-term signal. Exact vendor values vary, so trend position matters more than the precise number. |
| 200-day moving average | Above moving average | Price was above the long-term moving average near $27.92, supporting a positive primary trend for the regional bank stock. |
| Momentum | Positive but extended | RSI near 67 is elevated but not yet overbought. The stock is up about 9.63% over the last 52 weeks, so momentum is positive but extended after the Q2 earnings rally. |
| Volume | About 1.97M average shares | Average 20-day volume near 1.97 million shares. Volume can expand around earnings (next report expected in mid-October 2026 for Q3) and sector news. |
| Volatility | Below market (beta 0.67) | Beta of 0.67 means HOMB tends to move less than the S&P 500, but regional banks can still gap on credit headlines or rate surprises. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28.55, then $25.50 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $28.55 would weaken the near-term setup. A break below the 52-week low near $25.50 would signal broader trend damage. |
HOMB AI trading strategy
The HOMB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a regional bank stock with low beta, above-average profitability, Sun Belt exposure, and a recently expanded franchise. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, credit trends, rate policy, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for HOMB to hold above the $30.00 support zone and then clear the $31.70 resistance band on above-average volume, with confirmation from stable regional bank credit data and steady net interest margin. Momentum is positive but extended, so reward to risk is thinner near the 52-week high.
A failed breakout back below the 50-day moving average near $28.55 should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If HOMB pulls back toward the $28.55 to $30.00 zone without deterioration in credit quality, net interest margin, or local economic data, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and profitability thesis.
Do not treat strong ROE and ROA as a substitute for risk control. Regional banks can fall sharply when credit confidence changes or deposit competition intensifies.
Track net interest income, net interest margin, loan growth, non-performing assets, provision for credit losses, deposit costs, CET1 ratio, tangible book value, buybacks, dividend consistency, Mountain Commerce integration progress, and management commentary on the Sun Belt economy.
Reduce confidence if credit provisions rise faster than revenue, deposit costs outpace asset repricing, commercial real estate stress appears, merger integration disappoints, or the market re-rates the regional banking sector lower.
Investment research summary
Home BancShares, through its Centennial Bank subsidiary, gathers deposits from individuals and businesses in the Sun Belt and originates loans, primarily in commercial real estate, construction, residential mortgage, and commercial and industrial lending. It also provides wealth management, trust, and insurance services, and it expanded into East Tennessee with the Mountain Commerce Bancorp acquisition in Q2 2026.
The moat comes from local relationships, Sun Belt branch density, a conservative credit culture, and sticky deposit bases. However, it is narrower than mega-bank moats because deposit and loan customers face low switching costs and larger competitors operate in the same markets.
The thesis fails if regional economic weakness drives credit losses, commercial real estate stress materializes, deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, Mountain Commerce integration disappoints, a larger competitor enters core markets, or the regulatory burden on regional banks increases materially.
Management has shown consistent capital discipline and profitability focus. The team runs a conservative balance sheet with a 2.01% ROA and 11.11% ROE, and Q2 2026 delivered record adjusted results, a 9.5% dividend raise, and accelerated buybacks, but long succession and key-person depth are harder to assess with limited public disclosure.
Home BancShares benefits from Sun Belt population growth and the steady demand for community and commercial banking services, and the Mountain Commerce deal adds an East Tennessee footprint. However, regional banks face structural pressure from mega-bank scale, fintech competition, deposit cost repricing, and commercial real estate cycle risk.
At about 12.84x EPS and 1.37x book value with a 2.70% trailing dividend yield and a roughly 2.96% forward run-rate yield, HOMB is priced in line with the regional bank sector rather than at a distressed level. Analyst consensus of $33 (Buy) suggests modest upside. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while profitability, asset quality, and deposits remain solid.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.07 (Jul 31, 2026 close) | StockAnalysis.com HOMB overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.23 billion | StockAnalysis.com HOMB overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 200.46 million | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.10 billion | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $479.37 million | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.42 | StockAnalysis.com HOMB overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $22.68 | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $406.14 million | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.84 annual, 2.70% yield | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Quarterly dividend raise | $0.23 per share, from $0.21 | Home BancShares dividend press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Price / Earnings (TTM) | 12.84x | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Price / Book | 1.37x | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 11.11% | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on Assets (TTM) | 2.01% | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 43.65% | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y) | 0.67 | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $25.50 to $31.70 | StockAnalysis.com HOMB overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages (50-day / 200-day) | $28.55 / $27.92 | StockAnalysis.com HOMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus target | $33.00, Buy (9 analysts) | StockAnalysis.com HOMB forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $295.1M, adjusted EPS $0.64 | Home BancShares Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
This HOMB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date of August 2026, and they may be wrong.
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