Tenet Healthcare Corporation research snapshot
THC AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Tenet Healthcare as a scaled hospital and ambulatory-care operator that just delivered a strong Q2 2026 beat and raised full-year guidance, with the stock jumping about 20% on the report and now trading at a re-rated valuation. At the July 31, 2026 close THC was $254.78 and market capitalization was about $20.51 billion, re-verified as $254.78 times 80.52 million shares outstanding with 0.02% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Q2 2026 net operating revenues were $5.6 billion, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.304 billion at a 23.2% margin up 16.3% year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS was $6.12 up 52%. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $21.9 billion to $22.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA to $4.83 billion to $5.03 billion, and adjusted free cash flow after non-controlling interest to $1.825 billion to $2.055 billion, and the Board authorized a $2.0 billion increase to the share repurchase program. The offset is that exchange revenues fell 17% year over year, $92 million of the quarter was out-of-period supplemental Medicaid revenue, leverage is still material, and the stock is overbought after the move, so the THC AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$254.78
Market cap
$20.51 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
Post-earnings momentum at a re-rated valuation
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, overbought after the earnings jump
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tenet earns revenue from acute and specialty hospitals, outpatient facilities, revenue-cycle services, and United Surgical Partners International ambulatory sites. Customers pay for local clinical capacity, physician relationships, high-acuity care, and ambulatory access. | High |
| Moat | Local hospital licenses, physician networks, regulated operating know-how, contracted payer networks, and USPI ambulatory scale create barriers, but healthcare markets remain competitive and payer economics limit pricing freedom. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Saum Sutaria has prioritized higher-acuity care, USPI expansion, expense and AI initiatives, debt reduction, and buybacks. Q2 2026 delivered adjusted EBITDA up 16.3%, a $2.0 billion buyback authorization increase, and a raised full-year outlook. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net operating revenues were $5.6 billion, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.304 billion at a 23.2% margin up 16.3% year over year, adjusted diluted EPS was $6.12 up 52%, and adjusted free cash flow was $444 million in the quarter and $1.422 billion year to date. Guidance was raised across revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | Using the StockAnalysis.com TTM diluted EPS of $25.75 and free cash flow per share of $37.54, financial_rigor.py verified about 9.89x earnings, 12.54x forward earnings, 6.79x free cash flow, and 4.40x book value at $254.78. The trailing figures include out-of-period Medicaid and other non-recurring items. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close put THC above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, but 14-day RSI near 73.60 and a price near the top of the 52-week range indicated an extended momentum setup rather than a low-risk entry. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because exchange enrollment decline and conversion to uninsured, reimbursement policy, labor costs, out-of-period revenue normalization, leverage, litigation, and acquisition execution can all move earnings and the multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings, market data, cash-flow math, and current technical references that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Medium for future scenarios because exchange enrollment, regulation, and hospital demand cannot be forecast reliably. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The operating model and cash generation are tangible, while the amount of normalized earnings after out-of-period Medicaid items and future capital needs remain central open questions. | Medium |
THC AI stock forecast
The THC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $254.78 July 31 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model on a forward adjusted EPS base produced mechanical three-year outputs near $384 in a bull case, $265 in a base case, and $164 to $169 in a bear case, depending on the EPS and exit-multiple assumptions. The model is a sensitivity exercise, not a prediction, and it does not normalize for out-of-period Medicaid revenue, exchange headwinds, or future capital allocation.
$330 to $385
More likely if same-facility volumes and acuity stay strong, USPI expands at high returns with M&A above $300 million, reimbursement stays supportive, leverage falls, buybacks continue, and adjusted EPS compounds near 12% to 15% with a 12x to 13x earnings multiple.
$250 to $290
More likely if hospital operations and ambulatory growth remain solid, exchange headwinds stabilize, out-of-period Medicaid items fade, and the market values THC near a 10x to 11x earnings multiple.
$160 to $205
More likely if exchange enrollment keeps declining and converts to uninsured, reimbursement or labor costs pressure margins, volumes soften, out-of-period revenue reverses, debt reduction slows, or investors apply a lower multiple to lower normalized earnings.
THC AI technical analysis
THC AI technical analysis starts from the $254.78 July 31, 2026 close. Barchart reported a 20-day moving average near $214.34, a 50-day near $191.89, a 100-day near $194.11, a 200-day near $200.39, 14-day RSI near 73.60, and 14-day ADX near 28.84 as of early August 2026. StockAnalysis.com statistics independently showed the 50-day at $191.89, the 200-day at $200.39, and RSI at 73.60. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm live levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $254.78 | StockAnalysis.com listed this regular-session close on July 31, 2026, up from a $252.73 prior close. The August 2 cutoff follows the latest available close. |
| Near support | $244 to $250 | The post-earnings gap area near $239 to $244 and the first pullback zone below the close are the initial support references. |
| Next support | $214 to $217 | The 20-day moving average near $214.34 is the first broad trend support reference. |
| 50-day moving average | About $191.89 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com snapshots as of early August 2026. Price is well above this medium-term trend reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $200.39 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com snapshots as of early August 2026. This is the long-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $255 to $263 | The 52-week high of $262.68 sits about 3% above the July 31 close and is the immediate ceiling. |
| Momentum | Strong but overbought | 14-day RSI was near 73.60 and 9-day RSI near 76.05 with 14-day ADX near 28.84, indicating a strong but overbought trend. |
| Volume | About 1.45 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.46 million and StockAnalysis.com near 1.45 million; a breakout should be checked against this average. |
| Volatility | ATR about $10.72 | Barchart reported 14-day ATR of $10.72, about 4.2% of price, and 14-day historic volatility near 80%, elevated after the earnings move. |
| Invalidation | Sustained failure below $214 | A break below the 20-day area followed by failure around the 200-day near $200 would weaken the trend-following setup. |
THC AI trading strategy
The THC AI trading strategy is a monitoring framework for a re-rated healthcare operator with strong momentum and elevated volatility. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, a defined invalidation level, earnings-date review, and current chart data.
Monitor for a hold above the $244 to $250 area with volume confirmation while price remains above the $214 20-day reference. Recheck the thesis after quarterly results and exchange-enrollment commentary.
Invalidate the setup if price loses the 20-day area on worsening fundamentals or if fresh results reveal weaker normalized cash flow after out-of-period Medicaid items.
If THC pulls back toward the $214 to $217 area, watch whether support holds while USPI growth, hospital volumes, free cash flow, and leverage progress remain intact.
Do not average down solely because the multiple looks lower if exchange, reimbursement, labor, volume, or balance-sheet signals weaken.
Track same-facility revenue, adjusted admissions and surgeries, ambulatory adjusted EBITDA, payer mix, exchange and uninsured trends, out-of-period Medicaid items, adjusted free cash flow, net debt to EBITDA, M&A, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence if per-share improvement relies mainly on buybacks or one-time items while organic operating performance, leverage, or free cash flow deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Patients, physicians, employers, and payers pay Tenet for local hospital capacity, specialized acute care, ambulatory surgery access, and administrative healthcare services. The economic engine is hospital and ambulatory care volume combined with revenue-cycle and high-acuity services.
The moat is local and operational: hospital licenses, physician relationships, clinical capabilities, contracted payer networks, and the scale of USPI ambulatory sites. It is valuable but not immune to reimbursement and competitive pressure.
The failure path is mistaking a favorable earnings period for a permanent step-up: out-of-period Medicaid revenue fades, exchange enrollment keeps converting to uninsured, payer mix or labor costs turn, leverage constrains flexibility, and the market resets the earnings multiple.
Management has emphasized higher-acuity services, ambulatory care, disciplined operations, debt reduction, and repurchases, with a $2.0 billion buyback authorization increase in Q2 2026. The capital-allocation question is whether acquisitions and buybacks earn more than a stronger balance sheet would.
An aging population, outpatient migration, and demand for specialized care support ambulatory growth, while exchange enrollment decline, reimbursement policy, staffing scarcity, consolidation, and payer negotiating power set the boundary conditions.
At about 9.9x trailing GAAP earnings, 12.5x forward earnings, and 6.8x trailing free cash flow after a 20% post-earnings jump, valuation is no longer as cheap as it was, and the margin of safety depends on normalizing out-of-period items, maintaining cash conversion, and reducing leverage without impairing growth investment.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| THC price | $254.78 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $20.51 billion, computed as $254.78 x 80.52 million shares outstanding, 0.02% deviation from the reported figure | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net operating revenues | $5.6 billion | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA | $1.304 billion at a 23.2% margin, up 16.3% year over year, cross-validated at 0.00% deviation between the release and the call | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS | $6.12, up 52% year over year | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 USPI adjusted EBITDA | $542 million, up 8.8% to 9% year over year, at a 39% margin, 25% of full-year 2026 USPI guidance | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 hospital adjusted EBITDA | $762 million, up 22% year over year, at an 18% margin, with same-hospital inpatient adjusted admissions up 2.6% and revenue per adjusted admission up 3.3% | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted free cash flow | $444 million in Q2 and $1.422 billion year to date | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| 2026 raised guidance | Revenue $21.9B to $22.5B, adjusted EBITDA $4.83B to $5.03B, adjusted free cash flow after NCI $1.825B to $2.055B, and FY2026 adjusted EPS about $20.30 to $21.69 | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | 5.7 million shares for $1.04 billion in Q2 and about 7 million shares for $1.36 billion year to date, with a $2.0 billion increase to the repurchase authorization | Tenet Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $2.17 billion cash and $13.25 billion total debt as of June 30, 2026, with leverage of 2.33x EBITDA and 2.9x EBITDA less NCI | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Tenet Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $21.31 billion, up 3.07% from $20.68 billion | Tenet 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 income available to common shareholders | $1.407 billion | Tenet 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financial profile | TTM revenue $21.81B, TTM net income to common $2.24 billion, TTM free cash flow $3.02 billion and $37.54 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 9.89x trailing PE, 12.54x forward PE, 6.79x free cash flow, 4.40x book value, 0.94x sales, 6.11x EV/EBITDA, 10.45x EV/FCF, 14.74% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics page, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $277.48 across 22 analysts, low $231, median $280, and high $309 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 14 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell out of 22 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs to $305, UBS to $308, Truist to $290, Guggenheim to $283, Stephens to $285, Morgan Stanley to $274, RBC Capital to $283, BofA to $290, Barclays to $271, TD Cowen to $263 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed, TipRanks | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $22.43B with adjusted EPS $21.07, FY2027 revenue estimate $22.49B with adjusted EPS $20.45 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.98 million shares short, 3.70% of shares outstanding, 2.24 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | $156.72 to $262.68, up about 58% over 52 weeks, with a 1.27 beta | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $214.34, 50-day SMA near $191.89, 100-day SMA near $194.11, 200-day SMA near $200.39, 14-day RSI near 73.60, 14-day ADX near 28.84, 14-day ATR about $10.72 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This THC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical trends, exchange enrollment, reimbursement policy, or market conditions change.
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