Elevance Health, Inc. research snapshot
ELV AI stock analysis now reads Elevance Health as a scaled U.S. managed care and health benefits company that beat Q2 2026 expectations and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00. The August 2, 2026 setup is mixed: the stock fell to $375.84 after the July 15, 2026 earnings report, trades near 16.72x TTM EPS and 13.87x forward EPS, about 0.41x sales, and 12.96x free cash flow per share, while the market still weighs an elevated medical cost trend in government programs against Carelon growth and a larger buyback. The ELV AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges instead of a precise price prediction because medical utilization, benefit expense ratio, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid policy, and reserve assumptions can change the earnings path quickly.
Current price
$375.84
Market cap
$81.51 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Diversified managed care franchise at a low forward multiple, with raised 2026 EPS guidance but elevated medical cost trend in government programs
Trend status
Consolidating below the 50-day moving average after the Q2 results selloff while holding above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Elevance earns revenue by administering and underwriting health benefits, then adds services through Carelon for pharmacy, care delivery, behavioral health, and analytics. | High |
| Moat | Scale, provider networks, employer and government relationships, claims data, brand recognition, and regulated-market know-how support the moat, but membership attrition and repricing cycles show it is not frictionless. | Medium-high |
| Management | Gail Boudreaux led Q2 2026 ahead of expectations, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00, raised operating cash flow guidance to at least $6.0 billion, and bought about $1 million of stock in July 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 operating revenue was $49.8 billion with adjusted diluted EPS of $7.45, while TTM revenue was about $201.1 billion and TTM net income about $4.96 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $375.84, ELV screens near 16.72x TTM EPS, 13.87x forward EPS, 1.82x book value, 0.41x sales, 12.96x free cash flow per share, and a 1.83% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is below the 50-day average near $396.62 but above the 200-day average near $351.15, so the chart is consolidating after the Q2 selloff rather than trending. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are higher medical cost trend, benefit expense ratio pressure, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid membership and policy changes, CMS audits, employer affordability pressure, and integration execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the company is well covered and key data was cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because rate resets and policy news can move estimates. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ELV has franchise quality and a low forward multiple, but the current price still needs sustained earnings delivery, medical cost trend control, and policy stability to create a clear margin of safety. | Medium |
ELV AI stock forecast
The ELV AI stock forecast is scenario-based because trailing earnings and forward multiples depend on medical utilization, benefit expense ratio, Medicare Advantage margins, Medicaid membership, commercial pricing, and Carelon growth. Using the $375.84 price reference, TTM EPS of $22.47, and a three-year model, the mechanical outcomes are about $568 in a bullish case, $428 in a base case, and $254 in a bearish case before dividends.
$530 to $600 before dividends
More likely if medical cost trend moderates, Q3 and Q4 updates confirm margin recovery, Medicare Advantage rates and bids improve, Carelon growth supports mix, and the market applies a high-teens multiple to normalized EPS.
$400 to $450 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows low double digits off the raised $27.00 baseline, the benefit expense ratio stays controlled, commercial pricing catches up with utilization, and investors keep valuing ELV near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$240 to $300 before dividends
More likely if utilization rises faster than pricing, Medicare Advantage or Medicaid margins weaken, CMS risk adjustment exposure grows, Carelon execution disappoints, or the market compresses the multiple toward stressed managed care levels.
ELV AI technical analysis
ELV AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $375.84, a 50-day moving average near $396.62, a 200-day moving average near $351.15, RSI near 42.09, 20-day average volume near 1.49 million shares, and a 52-week range of $273.71 to $436.24.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $375.84 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $375.84, with after-hours trading near $379.84. |
| Immediate support | $370 to $380 | This area is the current reaction zone after the post-earnings decline and is the first support to watch on weakness. |
| Deeper support | $351 to $355 | This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $351.15 and is the more important trend test below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $396 to $400 | This zone brackets the 50-day moving average near $396.62 and is the first level a recovery needs to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $420 to $440 | This range leads toward the 52-week high of $436.24 and is the next meaningful supply zone above the 50-day average. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $396.62, 200-day near $351.15 | A reclaim of the 50-day average would restore momentum, while a sustained break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger recovery. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42.09 | Momentum is soft but not oversold, which fits a consolidation after an earnings-driven drop rather than a confirmed uptrend. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.49 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around earnings and CMS news because managed care stocks can gap on rate and utilization updates. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 2026 earnings, medical cost trend, and CMS policy headlines | The next earnings update, benefit expense ratio, medical cost commentary, and government-program guidance are likely volatility drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $351, then reclaim $396 | A sustained break below the 200-day average near $351 weakens the recovery. A close back above $396 to $400 would be needed to revive the uptrend. |
ELV AI trading strategy
The ELV AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with medical cost trend, benefit expense ratio, membership mix, Medicare Advantage rates, Medicaid membership, Carelon growth, cash flow, and policy risk.
Watch for ELV to hold the $370 to $380 support area and reclaim $396 to $400 with improving earnings guidance, stable benefit expense ratio commentary, and no new CMS or Medicaid shock.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $370 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher utilization or weaker government-program margins.
If ELV falls toward the 200-day average near $351 without a permanent earnings reset, compare the lower price with the raised $27.00 adjusted EPS baseline, normalized free cash flow, enrollment quality, and Carelon contribution.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if the benefit expense ratio rises structurally or if policy changes reduce the long-term return profile.
Track medical cost trend, benefit expense ratio, Medicare Advantage bid commentary, Medicaid membership, commercial pricing, Carelon revenue growth, cash flow conversion, debt, buybacks, dividends, and CMS risk adjustment disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that managed care can look statistically cheap before a reserve, utilization, or policy reset becomes visible in reported EPS.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Elevance because employers, individuals, states, and federal programs need organized access to care, insurance risk pooling, claims administration, provider networks, pharmacy services, and care-management infrastructure.
The moat comes from scale, local provider networks, claims data, regulated-program know-how, brand reach, employer relationships, and Carelon service depth. The moat is meaningful, but it can narrow if medical cost trend outruns pricing or policy resets reduce margins.
The thesis fails if medical costs rise faster than premiums, Medicare Advantage economics reset lower, Medicaid membership mix weakens, CMS audits create larger liabilities, or Carelon does not offset pressure in the benefits business.
Gail Boudreaux led a Q2 2026 beat, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00, raised operating cash flow guidance, accelerated investments, and bought shares in July 2026. The management test is sustaining margin recovery while keeping capital allocation, compliance, and service quality aligned.
Managed care sits inside a long-term shift toward value-based care, data-driven utilization management, pharmacy integration, and government-sponsored coverage. The offset is that health care affordability keeps political and regulatory pressure high.
At $375.84, ELV trades near 13.87x forward EPS, which embeds a cautious view of the raised $27.00 adjusted EPS baseline. Margin of safety improves if benefit costs stabilize, Carelon grows profitably, buybacks continue, and the stock stays near low-to-mid-teens forward multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $375.84 July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis ELV quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $81.51 billion market cap, 216.87 million shares | StockAnalysis ELV statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating revenue and EPS | $49.8 billion operating revenue, $6.71 diluted EPS, $7.45 adjusted diluted EPS | Elevance Health Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Adjusted diluted EPS raised to at least $27.00, operating cash flow raised to at least $6.0 billion | Elevance Health Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $201.1 billion TTM revenue per StockAnalysis statistics and Macrotrends, with about $198.7 billion TTM operating revenue per StockAnalysis financials; TTM net income about $4.96 billion | StockAnalysis financials and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 benefit expense ratio | 89.7%, up 80 basis points year over year | Elevance Health Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Medical membership | About 44.9 million as of June 30, 2026, down 469 thousand sequentially | Elevance Health Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt scope check | $37.51 billion consolidated cash and short-term investments and $31.04 billion total debt, with parent company cash and investments reported at about $2.1 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Elevance Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 16.72x P/E, 13.87x forward P/E, 1.82x P/B, 0.41x P/S, 12.96x P/FCF, 1.83% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py calculation from StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO and insider activity | Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO, purchased 2,725 shares at about $367.79 in July 2026 | Elevance Health leadership and TheFly report | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA near $396.62, 200-day MA near $351.15, RSI near 42.09, 52-week range $273.71 to $436.24 | StockAnalysis ELV technical data | August 2, 2026 |
This ELV AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if medical costs, policy decisions, membership mix, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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