Elevance Health, Inc. research snapshot
ELV AI stock analysis currently reads Elevance Health as a scaled U.S. managed care and health benefits company with durable enrollment relationships, Carelon services growth, and regulated cash-flow depth. The July 8, 2026 setup is constructive but not risk-free: the stock trades near 17.81x TTM EPS, about 0.45x sales, and 14.10x free cash flow per share, while investors still need evidence that medical cost trend, Medicare Advantage pressure, Medicaid redeterminations, CMS risk adjustment matters, and Carelon execution are stabilizing. The ELV AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges instead of a precise price prediction because health care policy, utilization, rates, and reserve assumptions can change the earnings path quickly.
Current price
$418.85
Market cap
$90.96 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-scale managed care franchise with policy, utilization, and margin pressure risk
Trend status
Constructive rebound, trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Elevance earns revenue by administering and underwriting health benefits, then adds services through Carelon for pharmacy, care delivery, behavioral health, and analytics. | High |
| Moat | Scale, provider networks, employer and government relationships, claims data, brand recognition, and regulated-market know-how support the moat, but switching and repricing cycles are not frictionless. | Medium-high |
| Management | Gail Boudreaux has led the company through the Anthem to Elevance repositioning and Carelon buildout, with the current test centered on margin recovery and policy execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $199.13 billion on StockAnalysis and Macrotrends, while Elevance reported $197.6 billion of operating revenue and about $5.7 billion of shareholders net income. | High |
| Valuation | At $418.85, ELV screens near 17.81x TTM EPS, 2.13x book value, 0.45x sales, 14.10x free cash flow per share, and a 1.64% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day average near $396.90 and the 200-day average near $371.10, so the chart shows a recovery trend with resistance near the recent high zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are higher medical cost trend, benefit expense ratio pressure, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid policy changes, CMS audits, employer affordability pressure, and integration execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the company is well covered and key data was cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because rate resets and policy news can move estimates. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ELV has franchise quality, but the current price needs sustained earnings recovery and policy stability to create a clear margin of safety. | Medium |
ELV AI stock forecast
The ELV AI stock forecast is scenario-based because trailing earnings and forward multiples depend on medical utilization, Medicare Advantage margins, Medicaid enrollment, commercial pricing, and Carelon growth. Using the $418.85 price reference, TTM EPS of $23.52, and an audited three-year model, the mechanical outcomes are about $594.80 in a bullish case, $448.20 in a base case, and $265.60 in a bearish case before dividends.
$560 to $620 before dividends
More likely if medical cost trend moderates, Q2 and Q3 updates confirm margin recovery, Medicare Advantage rates and bids improve, Carelon growth supports mix, and the market applies a high-teens multiple to normalized EPS.
$425 to $475 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows mid-single digits, the benefit expense ratio stays controlled, commercial pricing catches up with utilization, and investors keep valuing ELV near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$250 to $310 before dividends
More likely if utilization rises faster than pricing, Medicare Advantage or Medicaid margins weaken, CMS risk adjustment exposure grows, Carelon execution disappoints, or the market compresses the multiple toward stressed managed care levels.
ELV AI technical analysis
ELV AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7 close of $418.85, a 50-day moving average near $396.90, a 200-day moving average near $371.10, RSI near 60.47, 20-day average volume near 1.43 million shares, and a 52-week range of $295.01 to $495.26.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $418.85 | StockAnalysis listed the July 7, 2026 close at $418.85, with pre-market trading near $419.21. |
| Immediate support | $395 to $400 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $396.90 and is the first trend-support zone to watch. |
| Deeper support | $370 to $372 | This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $371.10 and would be a more important trend test. |
| Near resistance | $430 to $440 | This is the next reaction zone above the current price where short-term buyers need follow-through. |
| Upper resistance | $490 to $500 | This range is near the upper part of the 52-week range, with StockAnalysis listing a 52-week high of $495.26. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $396.90, 200-day near $371.10 | A close above both moving averages keeps the rebound intact, while a break below the 50-day average would weaken momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 60.47 | Momentum is positive but not extreme, which fits a recovery trend rather than a deeply oversold bounce. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.43 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around earnings and CMS news because managed care stocks can gap on rate and utilization updates. |
| Volatility | Watch July 17, 2026 earnings and policy headlines | The next earnings update, benefit expense ratio, medical cost commentary, and government-program guidance are likely volatility drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $396, then below $371 | A sustained break below the 50-day average weakens the rebound. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger recovery setup. |
ELV AI trading strategy
The ELV AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with benefit expense ratio, membership mix, Medicare Advantage rates, Medicaid redeterminations, Carelon growth, cash flow, and policy risk.
Watch for ELV to hold above the $395 to $400 support area and press through $430 to $440 with improving earnings guidance, stable benefit expense ratio commentary, and no new CMS or Medicaid shock.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $396 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher utilization or weaker government-program margins.
If ELV pulls back toward the 200-day average near $371 without a permanent earnings reset, compare the lower price with normalized EPS, free cash flow, enrollment quality, and Carelon contribution.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if the benefit expense ratio rises structurally or if policy changes reduce the long-term return profile.
Track medical cost trend, Medicare Advantage bid commentary, Medicaid membership, commercial pricing, Carelon revenue growth, cash flow conversion, debt, buybacks, dividends, and CMS risk adjustment disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that managed care can look statistically cheap before a reserve, utilization, or policy reset becomes visible in reported EPS.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Elevance because employers, individuals, states, and federal programs need organized access to care, insurance risk pooling, claims administration, provider networks, pharmacy services, and care-management infrastructure.
The moat comes from scale, local provider networks, claims data, regulated-program know-how, brand reach, employer relationships, and Carelon service depth. The moat is meaningful, but it can narrow if pricing fails to match medical cost trend or policy resets reduce margins.
The thesis fails if medical costs rise faster than premiums, Medicare Advantage economics reset lower, Medicaid membership mix weakens, CMS audits create larger liabilities, or Carelon does not offset pressure in the benefits business.
Gail Boudreaux has pushed a broader health platform strategy through the Elevance rebrand and Carelon expansion. The current management test is restoring margin confidence while keeping capital allocation, compliance, and service quality aligned.
Managed care sits inside a long-term shift toward value-based care, data-driven utilization management, pharmacy integration, and government-sponsored coverage. The offset is that health care affordability keeps political and regulatory pressure high.
At $418.85, ELV is not priced like a high-growth compounder, but it still assumes normalized earnings can recover. Margin of safety improves if benefit costs stabilize, Carelon grows profitably, and the stock stays near mid-teens earnings multiples or lower.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $418.85 July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis ELV quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $90.96 billion market cap, 217.16 million shares | StockAnalysis ELV statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $199.13 billion revenue, cross-checked against $197.6 billion operating revenue | StockAnalysis financials and Elevance FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 shareholders net income | About $5.66 billion to $5.70 billion across checked sources | StockAnalysis financials and Elevance FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating revenue | $49.4 billion | Elevance Health Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 benefit expense ratio | 86.4% | Elevance Health Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt scope check | $37.07 billion consolidated cash and short-term investments, with parent company cash and investments reported at $2.2 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Elevance Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 17.81x P/E, 2.13x P/B, 14.10x P/FCF, 1.64% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py calculation from StockAnalysis inputs | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO | Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO | Elevance Health leadership | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA near $396.90, 200-day MA near $371.10, RSI near 60.47 | StockAnalysis ELV technical data | July 8, 2026 |
This ELV AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if medical costs, policy decisions, membership mix, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
