Golub Capital BDC, Inc. research snapshot
GBDC AI stock analysis reads Golub Capital BDC, Inc. as an externally managed business development company that originates senior secured loans, most of them first lien, to middle-market companies backed by private equity sponsors. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the August 3, 2026 intraday price was $13.19 and the market capitalization was about $3.44 billion, verified as $13.19 times about 260.50 million shares. The most recent reported quarter is Q2 FY2026 ended March 31, 2026, with net investment income of $0.34 per share covering the $0.33 regular dividend, GAAP net loss per share of $0.18 on fair value markdowns, and NAV falling to $14.35 per share from $14.84 three months earlier. The board cut the regular dividend from $0.39 to $0.33 per quarter in the December 2025 quarter, and Q3 FY2026 results were scheduled for release on August 3, 2026 after market close with the earnings call on August 4, 2026. The GBDC AI stock forecast is scenario-based because NAV, portfolio marks, interest spreads, and the dividend can all move in different directions. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$13.19 intraday on August 3, 2026, up 0.36 or 2.81% from the $12.83 prior close, within a session range of $12.92 to $13.23
Market cap
$3.44 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Externally managed middle-market BDC trading near a 0.92x discount to NAV with a covered but recently cut dividend, rising credit-mark volatility, and a Buy analyst consensus
Trend status
Rebounded to the 200-day moving average near $13.19 after a multi-quarter NAV and share-price decline, with 14-day RSI back to a neutral reading near 58
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GBDC earns interest income by lending to middle-market companies, most of it senior first lien debt, and passes most net investment income to shareholders as dividends. Income quality still depends on borrower health and portfolio marks. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from the Golub Capital brand, sponsor relationships, underwriting discipline, origination capabilities, and a predominantly senior first lien portfolio. It is not a monopoly, and other BDCs and private credit funds bid for the same credits. | Medium |
| Management | David Golub is CEO and chairman, supported by an experienced credit team. The external management structure means fee scrutiny matters, and the incentive fee now has an infinite back-out of unrealized losses. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $831 million and TTM net income about $205 million on StockAnalysis. Q2 FY2026 NII of $0.34 per share covered the $0.33 dividend, but GAAP EPS was a $0.18 loss on markdowns and NAV fell to $14.35 at March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.19, verified math shows about 0.92x the March 2026 NAV of $14.35, a 10.0% yield on the $1.32 regular dividend, and about 8.8x TTM net investment income of $1.50 per share. The NAV discount is real but modest, so margin of safety still depends on credit outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | GBDC sits at the 200-day average near $13.19 and above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day averages near $12.90 to $12.93. The 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.93 shows a medium-term slide that has recently stabilized rather than a confirmed new uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because GBDC uses leverage, marks middle-market loans at fair value, and has shown it will cut the dividend if credit conditions warrant. NAV fell four straight quarters to $14.35, Q2 FY2026 was a GAAP loss, and a hard credit cycle or wider discount could pressure both NAV and price. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data and current quote math; medium for credit-cycle timing, mark-to-market path, and short-term price direction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. GBDC is a scaled, well covered BDC trading below NAV with a covered dividend, but NAV is trending down, the payout was recently cut, and Q2 FY2026 showed markdown losses, so the framework points to monitoring credit marks and NAV rather than a high-conviction call. | Medium-low |
GBDC AI stock forecast
The GBDC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise. A three-year auditable model using the $13.19 reference price and $1.50 trailing net investment income per share produces about $16.5 in a bull case, $13.5 in a base case, and $9.3 in a bear case before dividends. These are sensitivity cases, not guarantees, because NAV, credit marks, spreads, leverage, and the dividend can change. Q3 FY2026 results were scheduled for release on August 3, 2026 after market close, with the earnings call on August 4, 2026.
$15 to $18 before dividends
More likely if non-accruals stay near 1% of fair value, net investment income keeps covering the $0.33 quarterly dividend, NAV stabilizes or recovers from $14.35, markdowns reverse as spreads normalize, and investors re-rate GBDC toward or above book value. The verified model used 4% earnings growth and a 10x terminal multiple near $16.5.
$12.50 to $14.50 before dividends
More likely if NII roughly matches the $0.33 quarterly dividend, NAV holds near the low-to-mid $14 area, the stock trades near the low-0.9x price-to-NAV range, and portfolio marks stay mixed. The verified model base case was about $13.5.
$8.50 to $10.50 before dividends
More likely if fair value markdowns become realized losses, NAV falls below $14, the dividend gets cut again, a recession reduces portfolio company cash flows, leverage near 1.2x amplifies NAV declines, or the market applies a deeper discount to NAV. The verified model bear case was about $9.3.
GBDC AI technical analysis
GBDC AI technical analysis starts from the $13.19 August 3, 2026 intraday reference price. Barchart listed a 20-day moving average near $12.93, a 50-day moving average near $12.90, a 200-day moving average near $13.19, and 20-day average volume near 886,000 shares. The 14-day RSI sat near 58 with historic volatility near 18 to 20%, so the setup is improving but not yet decisive: price reclaimed the short-term averages and sits right at the 200-day average. A sustained move above the 200-day average and the $13.50 to $14.00 resistance band would strengthen the trend, while a break of the $12.60 zone and then the $11.77 52-week low would weaken the chart.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.19 | Reference price used for this page, the August 3, 2026 intraday quote reported by StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance. |
| Near support | $12.60 to $12.95 | This zone covers the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $12.90 to $12.93 and the recent consolidation base. A daily close through $12.60 would challenge the short-term recovery. |
| 20-day moving average | About $12.93 | Price is above this average, so the early August bounce is still intact on a short-term basis. |
| 50-day moving average | About $12.90 | Price is above this average, supporting the short-term recovery. |
| Near resistance | $13.50 to $14.00 | This range covers the analyst consensus target near $13.75 and the round-number area. A close above it would be the first sign the pullback from the $14.93 52-week high is repairing. |
| 200-day moving average | About $13.19 | GBDC is currently testing this level. A sustained move above it plus the $13.50 resistance would improve the medium-term trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58 | Momentum is neutral after the bounce, not stretched enough by itself to justify a directional trade without NAV and credit-mark context. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 886,000 shares | BDC names can move around earnings, dividend declarations, and credit headlines. Breaks of support or resistance should be checked against above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.4; historic volatility near 18 to 20% | GBDC is less volatile than the broad market on beta, but income stocks can still reprice quickly when credit marks or dividend expectations change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $12.60 or a fresh credit warning | A decisive close below the support zone, a further dividend cut, or NII falling below the $0.33 quarterly run-rate would reduce confidence in the base case. |
GBDC AI trading strategy
The GBDC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an income-oriented BDC, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price, the Q3 FY2026 results released after the August 3, 2026 close, net investment income, NAV, non-accruals, leverage, dividend declarations, credit-spread data, and predefined risk limits.
Watch whether GBDC can hold above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $12.90 to $12.93, then clear the 200-day average near $13.19 and the $13.50 to $14.00 resistance band with volume above the 20-day average. Fundamental confirmation should include NII at or above the $0.33 quarterly dividend and stable or improving NAV.
Reduce confidence if price fails back below $12.60, the Q3 FY2026 report shows weaker coverage, or non-accruals and unrealized losses worsen.
If GBDC weakens toward the $12.60 to $12.95 support band without a new credit warning, compare the new price to NAV of $14.35, TTM net investment income of about $1.50 per share, the $1.32 regular dividend, and debt-to-equity near 1.22x before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a higher yield as a margin of safety by itself. A lower price may be justified if NAV, marks, or funding costs are deteriorating.
Track net investment income per share, GAAP EPS, regular dividends, NAV per share, non-accruals at cost and fair value, debt-to-equity, portfolio fair value, senior first lien mix, share count, and the external management fee structure with Golub Capital.
Lower the AI score if yield rises only because NAV or net investment income is falling, or if leverage and non-accruals rise while the payout stays fixed.
Investment research summary
GBDC is paid to provide senior secured loans and other capital solutions to private middle-market companies, most of them backed by private equity sponsors. Customers pay interest because they need flexible financing that banks do not always supply, while GBDC shareholders receive most taxable investment income through dividends under the BDC and RIC structure.
The moat comes from the Golub Capital platform, sponsor relationships, underwriting discipline, origination capabilities, and a portfolio weighted about 92% to senior first lien debt as of March 31, 2026. It weakens if competitors compress spreads, private credit grows faster than origination quality, or credit losses erase the income advantage.
The thesis can fail if middle-market defaults rise, fair value markdowns become realized losses, leverage amplifies NAV declines, funding costs rise, the dividend is cut again, the external manager fee drag becomes contentious, or investors demand a much wider discount to NAV. NAV already fell from $15.00 to $14.35 across the four quarters ending March 31, 2026.
David Golub has led GBDC since its IPO in 2010. The capital-allocation tests are whether management protects NAV, covers the dividend with net investment income rather than return of capital, issues equity only at sensible prices, keeps leverage inside a conservative band, and keeps the external manager aligned through the incentive fee back-out of unrealized losses.
GBDC benefits from the long shift of middle-market credit away from banks and toward direct lenders, including BDCs and private credit funds. The trend can slow if public credit becomes cheaper, defaults rise, regulation tightens for BDCs, or competition compresses spreads after years of private credit growth.
At about 0.92x the March 2026 NAV and a 10% dividend yield, GBDC is not priced as a deep-value distress story. Margin of safety improves only if net investment income, non-accruals, and NAV stay healthy; it shrinks quickly if credit marks reverse the modest book-value discount or the dividend is cut again.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBDC price and market capitalization | $13.19 intraday on August 3, 2026 and $3.44 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance quote pages | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 260.50 million shares on StockAnalysis, cross-checked with BDC Investor at 261.15 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and BDC Investor | August 4, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $13.19 x 260.50 million shares = $3.44 billion, 0.12% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | August 4, 2026 |
| NAV and price-to-NAV | March 31, 2026 NAV $14.35 per share; price/NAV about 0.92x at $13.19; NAV trend $15.00 at June 30, 2025, $14.97 at September 30, 2025, $14.84 at December 31, 2025, $14.35 at March 31, 2026 | BDC Investor GBDC snapshot and SEC quarterly report | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 operating results | Net investment income $0.34 per share; GAAP net loss per share $0.18 on net unrealized markdowns of about $122 million; realized losses about $10 million; regular dividend $0.33 per share | BDC Investor GBDC snapshot and Golub Capital BDC Q2 FY2026 earnings coverage | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM NII, GAAP EPS, and dividend | TTM net investment income about $1.50 per share, TTM GAAP EPS about $0.77, annualized regular dividend $1.32, current yield about 10.0% | BDC Investor GBDC snapshot and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Fiscal year 2025 revenue about $870.78 million, up 20.16% year over year, and net income about $376.65 million; TTM revenue about $831 million and TTM net income about $205 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Portfolio and credit quality | Investments about $8.32 billion at fair value and $8.48 billion at cost at March 31, 2026, non-accruals about 0.9% at fair value, leverage about $4.57 billion, debt-to-equity about 1.22x | BDC Investor GBDC snapshot and SEC quarterly report | August 4, 2026 |
| Portfolio composition snapshot | About 91.9% senior debt, 0.7% subordinated debt, and 7.4% equity at the March 31, 2026 snapshot | BDC Investor GBDC profile | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at March 31, 2026 | Cash and equivalents about $72 million, total debt about $4.70 billion, net asset value about $3.75 billion, book value per share $14.35 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 8.79x on $1.50 TTM net investment income, 17.07x on $0.77 TTM GAAP EPS, 0.92x price-to-NAV on $14.35, and 10.0% dividend yield on $1.32 regular dividend | financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst expectations | Buy consensus from 7 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $13.75 and a range of $13 to $14; RBC Capital, Oppenheimer, and Bank of America at Buy with $14 targets in May 2026, Wells Fargo Overweight at $13, and KBW Hold at $14 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 20-day MA about $12.93, 50-day MA about $12.90, 200-day MA about $13.19, 20-day average volume about 886,000 shares, 52-week range $11.77 to $14.93, beta about 0.4 | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend history | Regular dividend cut from $0.39 to $0.33 per quarter starting with the December 2025 declaration; ex-dividend dates of $0.39 on September 15 and December 12, 2025, then $0.33 on March 13 and June 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
This GBDC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, portfolio marks, company events, or macro conditions change.
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