Ares Capital Corporation research snapshot
ARCC AI stock analysis currently reads Ares Capital Corporation as the largest publicly traded U.S. business development company, with about $29.5 billion of investments at fair value as of March 31, 2026, a regular $1.92 annualized dividend, and a verified market capitalization near $13.48 billion. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the ARCC reference price was $18.78 as of July 11, 2026, about 0.96x the March 31, 2026 NAV of $19.59. Trailing net investment income of about $2.04 per share covers the $1.92 regular dividend, but Q1 2026 still showed $412 million of net unrealized losses and NAV down to $19.59 from $19.94. The ARCC AI stock forecast is scenario-based because credit losses, interest spreads, leverage, and valuation to NAV can move in different directions. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$18.78 NASDAQ reference as of July 11, 2026
Market cap
$13.48 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Largest U.S. public BDC with scale, covered dividend, mild NAV discount, and material private-credit and leverage risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day average but still below the 200-day average after a pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ares Capital earns interest, fee, and equity income by lending to and investing in U.S. middle-market companies. Scale, direct origination through Ares, and a predominantly credit portfolio support business quality, with income quality still dependent on borrower health. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from BDC scale, Ares Management affiliation, sourcing reach, incumbent borrower relationships, diversified portfolio of about 607 companies, and multi-cycle underwriting history. It is not a monopoly; competitors can still bid for the same credits. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Kort Schnabel took the role in February 2025. Management should be judged by credit discipline, NAV protection, NII coverage of the dividend, leverage, fee alignment with Ares Management, and capital issuance timing. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $3.05 billion and FY2025 net income about $1.30 billion. Q1 2026 NII was $0.55 per share against a $0.48 dividend, while GAAP net income fell to $0.13 per share on unrealized losses and NAV declined to $19.59. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.78, verified math shows about 9.5x TTM EPS of $1.97, 0.96x March 2026 NAV of $19.59, and a 10.22% yield on the $1.92 regular dividend. The discount to NAV is modest, so margin of safety still depends on credit outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ARCC sits near or above the 50-day moving average around $18.71 but below the 200-day average around $19.41. The 52-week range of $17.40 to $23.42 shows a medium-term pullback rather than a confirmed long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because BDCs use leverage, mark middle-market loans, and can cut dividends if NII or credit quality deteriorates. Non-accruals near 2% at cost and Q1 unrealized losses show credit risk is real even when NII still covers the payout. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data and current quote math; medium for credit-cycle timing, mark-to-market path, and short-term price direction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ARCC is a real scale BDC with covered regular dividends and a mild NAV discount, but a durable margin of safety requires stress-testing credit losses and coverage, not only annualizing the current yield. | Medium |
ARCC AI stock forecast
The ARCC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise. A three-year auditable model using the $18.78 reference price, $2.04 trailing NII-style earnings power, and different growth and multiple assumptions produces about $26.0 in a bull case, $19.4 in a base case, and $11.9 in a bear case before dividends. These are sensitivity cases, not guarantees, because NAV, credit marks, spreads, leverage, and the regular dividend can change. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for July 29, 2026.
$24 to $28 before dividends
More likely if non-accruals stay low, NII remains above the $1.92 regular dividend, NAV stabilizes or rises back toward $20, credit spreads stay supportive, and investors re-rate ARCC to a premium or narrower discount to NAV. The verified model used 5% earnings growth and an 11x terminal multiple near $26.
$18 to $21 before dividends
More likely if NII stays roughly flat, the $0.48 quarterly dividend remains covered, NAV holds near the high-$19 area, and the stock trades close to book value. The verified model base case was about $19.4.
$11 to $14 before dividends
More likely if middle-market defaults rise, unrealized losses become realized, NII coverage weakens, leverage or funding costs pressure returns, or the market applies a deeper discount to NAV. The verified model bear case was about $11.9.
ARCC AI technical analysis
ARCC AI technical analysis starts from the $18.78 July 11, 2026 reference price. Barchart listed a 50-day moving average near $18.71, a 200-day moving average near $19.41, and 20-day average volume near 5.44 million shares. Other technical snapshots put RSI in a roughly mid-50s to low-60s band after the recent bounce. The setup improves if price holds above the 50-day average and then reclaims the 200-day average and nearby NAV area; a break of the $17.40 52-week low would weaken the chart.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.78 | Reference price used for this page, reported by Ares Capital IR and multiple market sources around July 10 to July 11, 2026. |
| Near support | $17.40 to $18.00 | This zone covers the 52-week low and recent trading floors. A daily close through $17.40 would challenge the mean-reversion thesis. |
| 50-day moving average | About $18.71 | Price is near or slightly above this reference after the early July bounce, so short-term trend is improving but not decisive. |
| Near resistance | $19.40 to $19.60 | This range includes the 200-day moving average and the March 31, 2026 NAV of $19.59, so it is a natural fundamental and technical ceiling. |
| 200-day moving average | About $19.41 | A sustained move above this level would be the first sign that the medium-term pullback from the $23.42 52-week high is repairing. |
| Momentum | RSI roughly mid-50s to low-60s | Momentum is constructive after the bounce, but not stretched enough by itself to justify a directional trade without credit and NAV context. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 5.4 million shares | BDC names can move around earnings, dividend declarations, and credit headlines. Breaks of support or resistance should be checked against above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.51; 52-week range $17.40 to $23.42 | ARCC is less volatile than the broad market on beta, but income stocks can still reprice quickly when credit marks or dividend expectations change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.40 or NII coverage break | A decisive close below the 52-week low, a dividend cut signal, or NII falling below the regular $0.48 quarterly run-rate would reduce confidence in the base case. |
ARCC AI trading strategy
The ARCC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a large BDC income stock, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price, Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, NII, NAV, non-accruals, leverage, dividend declarations, credit-spread data, and predefined risk limits.
Watch whether ARCC can hold above the 50-day moving average near $18.71, then reclaim the 200-day average and NAV zone near $19.40 to $19.60 with volume above the 20-day average. Fundamental confirmation should include NII coverage of the $0.48 quarterly dividend and stable non-accruals.
Reduce confidence if price fails below $17.40, Q2 commentary shows weaker coverage, or non-accruals and unrealized losses worsen.
If ARCC weakens toward the $17.40 to $18.00 support band without a new credit warning, compare the new price to NAV, TTM NII of about $2.04, the $1.92 regular dividend, debt-to-equity near 1.1x, and peer BDC price-to-NAV multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a higher yield as a margin of safety by itself. A lower price may be justified if credit marks, leverage, or funding costs are deteriorating.
Track NII per share, core EPS, regular and special dividends, spillover income, NAV per share, non-accruals at cost and fair value, debt-to-equity, portfolio fair value, first-lien and equity mix, share count, and management fee terms with Ares.
Lower the AI score if yield rises only because NAV or NII is falling, or if leverage and non-accruals rise while the payout stays fixed.
Investment research summary
Ares Capital is paid to provide direct loans and other capital solutions to private middle-market companies. Customers pay interest and fees because they need flexible financing that banks and public markets do not always supply, while ARCC shareholders receive most taxable investment income through dividends under the RIC and BDC structure.
The moat comes from scale as the largest public BDC, affiliation with Ares Management, direct origination, diversified exposure across hundreds of portfolio companies, and a long record of generating net realized gains over full cycles. It weakens if competitors compress spreads or if credit losses erase the income advantage.
The thesis can fail if middle-market defaults rise, unrealized losses become permanent, leverage amplifies NAV declines, funding costs rise, the regular dividend is cut, fee drag from the external manager becomes contentious, or investors demand a much wider discount to NAV.
Kort Schnabel became CEO in February 2025 after long tenure inside the Ares credit franchise. The capital-allocation tests are whether management protects NAV, covers the dividend with NII rather than return of capital, issues equity only at sensible prices, and keeps leverage inside a conservative band for the cycle.
ARCC benefits from the long shift of middle-market credit away from banks and toward private lenders. The trend can slow if public credit becomes cheaper, defaults rise, regulation tightens for BDCs, or competition compresses spreads after years of private-credit growth.
At about 0.96x March 2026 NAV and a low-double-digit dividend yield, ARCC is not priced as a deep-value distress story. Margin of safety improves only if NII coverage, non-accruals, and leverage stay healthy; it shrinks quickly if credit marks reverse the modest book-value discount.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC price and market capitalization | $18.78 reference price as of July 11, 2026 and $13.48 billion market capitalization | Ares Capital IR and Morningstar quote pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 718.02 million shares, cross-checked with Macrotrends 718 million and BDC Investor 718 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics and Macrotrends shares outstanding | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $18.78 x 718.02 million shares = $13.48 billion, 0.03% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| NAV and price-to-NAV | March 31, 2026 NAV $19.59 per share; price/NAV about 0.96x at $18.78 | Ares Capital Q1 2026 results and BDC Investor snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | NII $398 million or $0.55 per share; Core EPS $0.47; GAAP net income $92 million or $0.13 per share; net unrealized losses about $412 million | Ares Capital March 31, 2026 financial results release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM NII, EPS, and dividend | TTM NII about $2.04 per share, TTM EPS about $1.97, regular annualized dividend $1.92, yield about 10.22% | BDC Investor ARCC snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | About $3.052 billion revenue and $1.299 billion net income | Macrotrends ARCC revenue and net income pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio and credit quality | Investments about $29.5 billion fair value, about 607 portfolio companies, non-accruals about 2% at cost and 1% at fair value, debt-to-equity about 1.10x to 1.13x | Ares Capital portfolio page and Q1 2026 results summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio composition snapshot | About 60% senior debt, 14% subordinated debt, and 26% equity at the March 31, 2026 BDC Investor snapshot | BDC Investor ARCC profile | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 9.53x PE on $1.97 TTM EPS, 0.96x PB on $19.59 NAV, and 10.22% dividend yield on $1.92 regular dividend | financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 12, 2026 |
| Credit ratings context | Investment-grade style ratings listed as BBB / Baa2 / BBB as of March 31, 2026 on company IR materials | Ares Capital investor relations | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 50-day MA about $18.71, 200-day MA about $19.41, 20-day average volume about 5.44 million, 52-week range $17.40 to $23.42, beta about 0.51 | Barchart technical analysis and Google Finance quote data | July 12, 2026 |
This ARCC AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecasts are scenario-based, rely on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and may be wrong if earnings, credit conditions, interest rates, leverage, dividend policy, regulation, or market multiples change.
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