Blue Owl Capital Corporation research snapshot
OBDC AI stock analysis currently reads Blue Owl Capital Corporation as a middle-market direct lending BDC whose base dividend was reset lower, while the stock keeps trading at a discount to book value and near its 52-week low. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $10.75 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $5.34 billion, and the central question was whether net investment income, credit quality, and book value stability can justify the below-NAV valuation after a dividend reset. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$10.75
Market cap
$5.34 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Fair business at 0.75x book; dividend reset and credit uncertainty cap conviction
Trend status
Near the 52-week low below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a reset dividend yield near 11.7%
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Blue Owl Capital Corporation originates and manages a diversified portfolio of senior secured loans to middle-market companies, earning net investment income that flows to shareholders as dividends. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is limited to origination relationships, scale in upper-middle-market direct lending, and the permanent capital base of Blue Owl. BDCs face structural competition from private credit funds and banks. | Low-medium |
| Management | Managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc., a large alternative asset manager. The external management structure means fees and alignment are typical for the BDC space, and a pending adviser valuation lawsuit adds a monitoring item. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $1.78 billion and TTM net income was $360.39 million. Q1 2026 adjusted NII of $0.31 missed the $0.35 consensus, NAV per share fell to $14.41 from $14.81, and the base dividend was reset to $0.31 per quarter. | Medium |
| Valuation | The stock trades at 0.75x book value and a 15.13x TTM PE ratio, with a forward PE near 8.33x. The 11.72% dividend yield embeds market concern about coverage and NAV marks after the reset. | Medium |
| Technical trend | OBDC is trading near its 52-week low and below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. RSI near 44.8 reflects mild selling pressure rather than an oversold extreme. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are private credit quality deterioration, rising non-accruals, dividend coverage after the reset, Fed rate cuts squeezing NII, NAV mark-downs, the adviser valuation litigation, and the externally managed structure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium confidence for the filing-backed financial map, NAV math, analyst targets, and major risk categories. Lower confidence for predicting private credit marks and future dividend levels. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The discount to book and the still-elevated yield offer a potential buffer, but BDCs are inherently tied to the credit cycle and the dividend was just reset lower. | Low-medium |
OBDC AI stock forecast
The OBDC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $10.75 cutoff price and does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity on forward adjusted EPS near $1.28 produced reference values near $14.8 for the bullish case, $12.2 for the base case, and $9.2 for the bearish case. The bullish case requires stable credit quality, maintained NII above the reset dividend, and NAV stability. The base case assumes modest credit normalization and a sustained discount to book. The bearish case assumes rising non-accruals, further dividend pressure, and NAV erosion.
$13 to $15
More likely if the credit cycle stays benign, non-accruals remain low, NII comfortably covers the reset dividend, and the market re-rates OBDC closer to its $14.41 book value. Analyst targets support this range, with the high target at $15.
$10.50 to $12.50
More likely if credit quality normalizes gradually, the reset dividend stays covered, and the stock continues to trade at a discount to book in line with BDC sector averages.
$8 to $10
More likely if private credit stress rises, non-accruals increase materially, the dividend is cut again, or NAV declines, causing the discount to book to widen further.
OBDC AI technical analysis
OBDC AI technical analysis starts from the $10.75 close on July 31, 2026 used for this August 3 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock below both the 50-day moving average near $10.97 and the 200-day moving average near $11.75, consistent with the downtrend that has taken it near the 52-week low of $10.52. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $10.75 | Latest verified close used for this page, from July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $10.52 to $10.70 | The 52-week low area at $10.52. A close below this level would set a new low and may trigger stop-loss selling. |
| Secondary support | $10.00 to $10.30 | Round-number psychological support zone below the current 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $10.90 to $11.10 | Recent trading range highs and the area around the 50-day moving average where short-term sellers may appear. |
| Key resistance | $11.75 | The 200-day moving average. A sustained recovery above this zone would improve the short-term technical picture. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $10.97 | Public technical sources showed OBDC trading just below the 50-day moving average at the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $11.75 | A sustained move above the 200-day MA would be needed to signal a trend reversal. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.8, mildly bearish | RSI below 50 reflects persistent selling pressure. Oversold readings could precede a bounce but do not guarantee one. |
| Volume | About 6.5 million shares on July 31 | Volume was above the 20-day average near 3.5 million, with no clear climax selling signal at the cutoff. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.52 | A close below the 52-week low would confirm downtrend continuation. A recovery above $11.75 is needed to challenge the bearish setup. |
OBDC AI trading strategy
The OBDC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed BDC evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Given the persistent downtrend, traders may wait for a sustained close above $11.75, near the 200-day moving average, with above-average volume before treating a reversal as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close below $10.52 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If holding for the dividend, monitor adjusted NII, non-accrual trends, NAV per share, and coverage of the reset $0.31 quarterly base dividend in each filing.
A further dividend reset, a sustained non-accrual increase, or an NII print below the base dividend should trigger a review of the income thesis.
If OBDC pulls back toward $10.52 without a credit thesis break, look for a volume climax or bullish divergence before considering a tactical entry.
Do not rely on the high yield alone as a value signal. Define maximum loss and check NII coverage ratios first.
Investment research summary
Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a business development company that originates senior secured loans to middle-market companies and passes through net investment income as dividends. Clients borrow from OBDC for acquisitions, growth, and refinancing where banks may not lend.
The competitive position rests on origination relationships, scale in upper-middle-market lending, and permanent capital backing from Blue Owl Capital. BDCs face structural competition from private credit funds, banks, and the syndicated loan market.
The thesis can fail if private credit quality deteriorates, non-accruals rise sharply, the dividend is cut again, NAV declines persist, or the discount to book widens further. Fed rate cuts squeezing NII and the pending adviser valuation lawsuit are additional downside paths.
OBDC is externally managed by Blue Owl Capital Inc., one of the larger alternative asset managers. The key monitoring items are fee structure alignment, portfolio manager experience in stressed credit environments, underwriting discipline, and the outcome of the valuation lawsuit.
Private credit has grown rapidly as banks have retrenched from middle-market lending, a secular tailwind for BDCs. However, the asset class has not been tested by a sustained downturn, and the sector is under dividend pressure as rate cuts squeeze net investment income.
At 0.75x book value with an 11.72% dividend yield and an 8.33x forward PE, the price embeds significant market skepticism. A margin of safety exists if credit quality holds and the reset dividend remains covered, but value realization depends on credit cycle outcomes.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC price | $10.75 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis real-time quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.34 billion, verified as $10.75 x 496.31 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.78 billion | StockAnalysis overview and statistics, cross-validated with Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $360.39 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance financials | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $0.71 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward dividend and yield | $1.26 per share, 11.72% yield; base reset to $0.31 per quarter | StockAnalysis dividends page and Q1 2026 earnings materials | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Approximately $14.41, matching Q1 2026 NAV per share (P/B 0.75x) | StockAnalysis statistics and Blue Owl Q1 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $441.88 million | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | $8.45 billion total debt, net cash of -$8.01 billion (-$16.14 per share) | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt to equity | 1.18x | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $10.52 to $14.53 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA near $10.97, 200-day MA near $11.75, RSI near 44.8 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $13.21, range $11 to $15 across 14 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page based on S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 15.13x TTM PE, 8.33x forward PE, 0.75x P/B, 11.72% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
This OBDC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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