Fair Isaac Corporation research snapshot
FICO AI stock analysis reads Fair Isaac Corporation as a high-margin credit scoring and decision software franchise whose stock was repriced sharply after the July 29, 2026 Q3 FY2026 report. The quarter itself was strong: revenue rose 26% to $674.2 million, GAAP net income rose 30% to $237.2 million, GAAP EPS rose 41% to $10.45, non-GAAP EPS rose 42% to $12.18, and FICO raised full-year guidance to $2.53 billion revenue and $36.86 GAAP EPS. Even so, the stock posted one of its worst days in over a year because investors focused on softer implied fourth quarter guidance, higher fourth quarter operating and interest expense, and early signs that VantageScore is gaining share in the mortgage market under the Lender Choice environment. FICO closed at $1,122.97 on July 31, 2026, with a market cap near $24.25 billion and a July 31 intraday low of $1,070.24, roughly 44% below the $1,998.01 52-week high. The analysis supports scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction.
Current price
$1,122.97
Market cap
$24.25 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Wide-moat credit scoring franchise facing mortgage share, leverage, and guidance questions
Trend status
Bearish short-term trend below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FICO sells credit scores, fraud detection, decision management, and analytics software used by lenders, insurers, retailers, telecoms, and enterprises to automate high-stakes risk decisions, with TTM revenue near $2.39 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is strongest in FICO Scores because lender workflows, model validation, regulatory familiarity, brand trust, and credit bureau distribution create high switching friction, but VantageScore mortgage adoption is testing it. | High |
| Management | CEO Will Lansing has pushed aggressive score pricing, platform investment, and record buybacks, including a $1.5 billion term loan to fund an accelerated share repurchase in June 2026 that lifted net debt. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 26% to $674.2 million, GAAP net income rose 30% to $237.2 million, GAAP EPS rose 41% to $10.45, and full-year guidance was raised, but fourth quarter expense and interest guidance point to a sequential step-down. | High |
| Valuation | At $1,122.97, audited valuation math shows about 32.6x trailing GAAP EPS, 24.4x free cash flow per share, 10.1x sales per share, no dividend yield, and an EV/EBITDA near 23.6x. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was below the quoted 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with price down about 44% from the 52-week high and RSI near 40. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are VantageScore mortgage share gains under Lender Choice, regulatory scrutiny of score pricing, delayed Direct Licensing Program certification, mortgage cycle volatility, elevated debt, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, the Q3 FY2026 earnings release, the call transcript, and market data cross-validate. Return confidence is lower because the market is mid-repricing and forward assumptions are contested. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FICO remains a rare franchise, but the stock now requires confidence that score economics, software growth, and debt reduction can outrun mortgage share, regulatory, and multiple risk after the July repricing. | Medium-low |
FICO AI stock forecast
The FICO AI stock forecast uses the $1,122.97 price reference, TTM GAAP EPS of $34.47, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $678, a base value near $1,147, and a bullish value near $1,573 before any change in share count. These are scenario ranges, not promises, and the stock is already inside the base range.
$1,450 to $1,650
More likely if mortgage volumes stabilize, VantageScore share stays below the high teens, Direct Licensing Program gets GSE certification, Scores pricing stays durable, platform ARR keeps compounding, DBNRR stays above 109%, and the market restores a premium multiple toward the analyst average target near $1,505.
$1,050 to $1,250
More likely if EPS grows around high single digits, Scores growth normalizes after mortgage price-driven quarters, software grows steadily, debt comes down after the accelerated buyback, and valuation settles near 24x to 26x earnings while the market keeps debating mortgage share.
$620 to $750
More likely if VantageScore gains more mortgage share, regulators or lenders push back on score pricing, mortgage activity weakens further, debt limits capital returns, or the market re-rates FICO toward 17x to 18x earnings, near the low analyst target of $707.
FICO AI technical analysis
FICO AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. FICO closed at $1,122.97 on July 31, 2026 after a 1.45% decline, traded between $1,070.24 and $1,136.02, and remained inside a 52-week range of $870.01 to $1,998.01. Barchart showed the 20-day moving average near $1,249.23, the 50-day near $1,217.97, the 100-day near $1,146.62, and the 200-day near $1,375.77, all above price, with 14-day RSI near 40.19 and 14-day ADX near 15.83.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1,122.97 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis.com market data after a 1.45% one-day decline. |
| Immediate support | $1,070 to $1,136 | This zone spans the July 31 intraday low of $1,070.24 and the closing range, so a break below it would open the path to lower levels. |
| 100-day moving average | $1,146.62 | Barchart showed the 100-day moving average near $1,146.62, the first overhead level a bounce would need to clear. |
| 50-day moving average | $1,217.97 | Barchart showed the 50-day moving average near $1,217.97, a stronger overhead resistance for any rebound attempt. |
| 20-day moving average | $1,249.23 | Barchart showed the 20-day moving average near $1,249.23, overlapping recent failed rebounds. |
| 200-day moving average | $1,375.77 | Barchart showed the 200-day moving average near $1,375.77, far above price and a sign the long-term trend has broken. |
| Deeper support | $870 to $900 | This area overlaps the 52-week low of $870.01 and the audited bearish valuation scenario. |
| Momentum | Weak, RSI near 40, ADX near 16 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 40.19 and 14-day ADX near 15.83, which reads as weak momentum without a confirmed trend. |
| Volume | 1.147 million shares on July 31 | Volume far exceeded the 20-day average near 315,000 shares, consistent with an active selling session after the report. |
| Volatility | Elevated, 52-week range $870.01 to $1,998.01 | Barchart showed 14-day historical volatility near 88%, so position sizing should account for large swings around earnings, guidance, and regulatory news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,070 | A decisive close below the July 31 intraday low would weaken the setup further, while a close above the 50-day moving average near $1,218 would be the first sign of stabilization. |
FICO AI trading strategy
The FICO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action to Scores revenue durability, VantageScore mortgage share, software ARR, DBNRR, debt, buybacks, mortgage volumes, and regulatory headlines.
FICO is below all major moving averages, so a trend-following trader waits for a close back above the 100-day moving average near $1,147 and then the 50-day near $1,218 with rising volume, while Q4 commentary confirms score pricing durability and mortgage share stability.
A close below $1,070, weaker DBNRR, higher VantageScore mortgage share, or a negative regulatory headline should keep trend-following confidence low.
If FICO stabilizes near the $870 to $1,070 zone without evidence of score pricing erosion or mortgage share loss, compare the entry price with the audited base scenario, current debt load, and analyst target dispersion before acting.
Do not treat every bounce as attractive if VantageScore adoption, customer pushback, or mortgage volume weakness changes the earnings path, and size positions for the roughly 6% daily ATR.
Track Scores B2B revenue, mortgage origination volumes and price, VantageScore market share in conforming loans, Direct Licensing Program GSE certification, software ARR, platform NRR, debt reduction, buyback pace, and price target revisions.
Position sizing should reflect that FICO is a high-margin but leveraged franchise trading at about 32x trailing GAAP EPS, not a low-risk compounding machine, especially with fourth quarter expense guidance rising.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FICO because lenders and enterprises need standardized credit risk scores, predictive analytics, fraud detection, and decision software that can be trusted inside regulated, high-stakes workflows, with scores priced at roughly $10 or more per mortgage pull.
The moat comes from the FICO Score brand, lender adoption, credit bureau distribution, switching costs, model validation, patents, and decades of regulatory familiarity. It can narrow if VantageScore or internal bank models keep gaining share in mortgage lending.
The thesis fails if VantageScore takes durable mortgage share under Lender Choice, regulators cap pricing, Direct Licensing Program certification keeps slipping, major bureau relationships weaken, mortgage volume stays soft, or the market stops assigning a premium multiple to Scores profits.
Will Lansing has led FICO through strong pricing power, platform investment, and record buybacks, including a June 2026 $1.5 billion term loan to fund an accelerated share repurchase. The management question is whether per-share value creation remains disciplined with about $5.35 billion of net debt.
Credit automation, fraud detection, and AI decisioning are long-term trends, and FICO has credible data science and platform momentum. The same trend also pushes lenders and regulators toward transparent, lower-cost, or alternative scoring systems, and FICO Score 10T is now competing for mortgage acceptance.
At $1,122.97, FICO is down about 44% from its high but still trades near 32x trailing GAAP EPS. Margin of safety depends on sustained score economics, software growth, debt reduction, and limited regulatory or competitive damage, with analyst targets ranging from $707 to $1,950.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO quote reference | $1,122.97 close on July 31, 2026, after a 1.45% one-day decline | StockAnalysis.com FICO quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $24.25 billion calculated from $1,122.97 x 21.6 million shares outstanding, verified by financial_rigor.py with 0.03% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and SEC Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 21.597 million shares as of July 17, 2026, down 4.5% year over year after record buybacks | SEC Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue and net income | $674.2 million revenue, $237.2 million GAAP net income, $10.45 diluted GAAP EPS, and $12.18 non-GAAP EPS | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 performance | $1.878 billion revenue, $660.0 million net income, and $28.12 diluted EPS | SEC Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix, Q3 FY2026 | Scores revenue $458.9 million up 41% and Software revenue $215.3 million up 2%, with B2B scores up 49% (59% normalized) | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | July 29, 2026 |
| Software ARR and retention | Total software ARR $816 million up 10%, platform ARR $413 million up 62%, total DBNRR 109%, platform NRR 148% | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax generated 63% of Q3 FY2026 total revenue and 60% of nine-month revenue | SEC Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $305 million cash and marketable investments, $5.58 billion total debt at a 5.64% weighted average rate, and about $5.28 billion net debt | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | July 29, 2026 |
| Buyback activity | Q3 FY2026 repurchases of about 1.7 million shares for $1.96 billion, including a $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase funded by a June 2026 term loan | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue guidance raised to $2.53 billion up 20%, GAAP EPS guidance of $36.86 up 39%, and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $42.43 up 42% | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue $2.39 billion up 24.1%, net income $815.02 million, EPS $34.47, gross margin 85.1%, operating margin 52.1%, free cash flow $996 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 32.58x trailing GAAP EPS, 21.99x forward PE, 10.13x sales, 24.35x free cash flow, EV/EBITDA 23.64, no dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day moving average near $1,249.23, 50-day near $1,217.97, 100-day near $1,146.62, 200-day near $1,375.77, 14-day RSI near 40.19 | Barchart FICO technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst sentiment | 21 analysts, Buy consensus, average 12-month target $1,504.75, median $1,528, high $1,950, low $707 | StockAnalysis.com FICO forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC Capital $2,400 to $1,525, Jefferies $1,700 to $1,750, Clear Street $1,639 to $1,600, Wells Fargo $1,400 to $1,450, Wolfe Research held $1,450, UBS held $1,320 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.23 million shares short, 10.34% of shares outstanding, 7.55 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| FICO Score 10T and Direct Licensing | FICO Score 10T adopter program reached 70 mortgage lenders, and the Direct Licensing Program is still waiting on one GSE certification | FICO Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
This FICO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, mortgage volumes, VantageScore adoption, Direct Licensing Program timing, credit score regulation, debt costs, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
