Fair Isaac Corporation research snapshot
FICO AI stock analysis currently reads Fair Isaac Corporation as a high-quality credit scoring and analytics business with exceptional pricing power in Scores, growing platform software, and unusually high customer concentration. The stock closed at $1,300.27 on July 7, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $30.29 billion using 23.295 million shares outstanding. The positive case is that FICO Scores remain a standard in U.S. lending, Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 39%, and software platform ARR keeps expanding. The caution is that valuation already prices in durable growth, debt is high at about $3.6 billion, and the FICO AI stock forecast is sensitive to mortgage volumes, regulator pressure, VantageScore adoption, and multiple compression.
Current price
$1,300.27
Market cap
$30.29 billion verified market cap
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Wide-moat credit scoring and decision software franchise with premium valuation and regulatory risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound above key moving averages, but still well below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FICO sells credit scores, fraud, decision management, and analytics software used by lenders, insurers, retailers, telecoms, and other enterprises to automate risk decisions. | High |
| Moat | The moat is strongest in FICO Scores because lender workflows, model validation, regulatory use, brand trust, and credit bureau distribution create high switching friction. | High |
| Management | CEO Will Lansing has overseen aggressive score pricing, software platform investment, and large buybacks. Capital allocation has created per-share growth but also raised leverage. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 39% to $691.7 million, net income rose 63% to $264.5 million, and six-month FY2026 revenue rose 28% to $1.204 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $1,300.27, audited valuation math shows about 41.2x TTM EPS, 34.9x free cash flow per share, 13.4x sales per share, and no dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 7 close was above quoted 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with price still about 35% below the 52-week high of $1,998.01. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are regulatory scrutiny of score pricing, VantageScore adoption, mortgage cycle volatility, credit bureau concentration, leverage, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Return confidence is lower because the bear case depends on future regulation, competitive adoption, and market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FICO looks like a rare franchise, but the stock requires confidence that score economics and software growth can outrun regulatory and valuation risk. | Medium |
FICO AI stock forecast
The FICO AI stock forecast uses the $1,300.27 price reference, TTM EPS of $31.56, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $837, a base value near $1,470, and a bullish value near $2,178 before any change in share count. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$2,050 to $2,250
More likely if Scores pricing remains durable, mortgage volumes recover, software platform ARR keeps compounding, DBNRR stays above 110%, buybacks reduce share count, and the market maintains a premium multiple near 42x earnings.
$1,400 to $1,550
More likely if EPS grows around 10% annually, Scores growth normalizes after a strong mortgage-driven quarter, software grows steadily, debt stays manageable, and valuation settles near 35x earnings.
$800 to $900
More likely if regulators or lenders push back on score pricing, VantageScore gains adoption, mortgage activity weakens, leverage limits buybacks, or the market re-rates FICO toward 25x earnings.
FICO AI technical analysis
FICO AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. FICO closed at $1,300.27 on July 7, 2026 after a 1.07% gain, traded between $1,294.00 and $1,335.61, and remained inside a 52-week range of $870.01 to $1,998.01. Investing.com showed the 50-day moving average near $1,212.77 and the 200-day moving average near $1,199.99.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1,300.27 | July 7, 2026 close from MarketWatch market data. |
| Immediate support | $1,294 to $1,300 | This zone spans the July 7 intraday low and close after five consecutive daily gains. |
| Moving average support | $1,200 to $1,213 | Investing.com showed the 200-day and 50-day moving averages clustered near this area. |
| Deeper support | $870 to $900 | This area overlaps the 52-week low and the audited bearish valuation scenario. |
| Near resistance | $1,335 to $1,350 | The July 7 intraday high is the first area where rebound buyers need follow-through. |
| Higher resistance | $1,530 to $1,550 | This range overlaps the Investing.com average analyst target and the audited base scenario. |
| Momentum | Constructive but extended short-term rebound | Price was above major moving averages after a five-day advance, so confirmation matters more than chasing strength. |
| Volume | 267.61K shares on July 7 | MarketWatch showed volume below the 65-day average of 357.15K, so the rebound needs stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $870.01 to $1,998.01 | The wide range shows how quickly FICO can re-rate when valuation, regulation, or mortgage volume expectations change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,200 | A decisive break below the moving-average cluster would weaken the trend-following setup. |
FICO AI trading strategy
The FICO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action to Scores revenue durability, software ARR, DBNRR, debt, buybacks, mortgage volumes, and regulatory headlines.
Watch for FICO to hold above the $1,200 to $1,213 moving-average zone and break through $1,335 to $1,350 on better volume while Q3 commentary confirms Scores pricing durability and software ARR growth.
A close below $1,200, weaker DBNRR, or a negative regulatory headline should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FICO pulls back toward $1,200 without evidence of score pricing erosion, compare the lower entry price with the audited base scenario, current debt load, and analyst target dispersion.
Do not treat every pullback as attractive if VantageScore adoption, customer pushback, or mortgage volume weakness changes the earnings path.
Track Scores B2B revenue, software ARR, platform DBNRR, mortgage origination volume, credit bureau contract concentration, debt reduction, buyback pace, and price target revisions.
Position sizing should reflect that FICO is a high-quality but high-multiple financial data franchise, not a guaranteed compounding machine.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FICO because lenders and enterprises need standardized credit risk scores, predictive analytics, fraud detection, and decision software that can be trusted inside regulated, high-stakes workflows.
The moat comes from the FICO Score brand, lender adoption, credit bureau distribution, switching costs, model validation, patents, and decades of regulatory familiarity. It can narrow if alternative scores become accepted in more lending channels.
The thesis fails if regulators cap pricing, VantageScore or internal bank models gain share, major bureau relationships weaken, mortgage volume stays soft, or the market stops assigning a premium multiple to Scores profits.
Will Lansing has led FICO through a period of strong pricing power and aggressive repurchases. The management question is whether per-share value creation remains disciplined with debt near $3.6 billion.
Credit automation, fraud detection, and AI decisioning are long-term trends, and FICO has valuable data science credibility. The same trend can also increase pressure for transparent, lower-cost, or alternative scoring systems.
At $1,300.27, FICO is cheaper than its 52-week high but still priced like a premium compounder. Margin of safety depends on sustained score economics, software growth, and limited regulatory damage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO quote reference | $1,300.27 close on July 7, 2026, after a 1.07% one-day gain | MarketWatch FICO quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $30.29 billion calculated from $1,300.27 x 23.295 million shares outstanding | Pineify financial_rigor.py and SEC Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 23.295 million shares as of March 31, 2026, cross-checked against MarketWatch 23.19 million shares | SEC Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 revenue and net income | $691.7 million revenue, $264.5 million net income, and $11.14 diluted EPS | FICO Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Six-month FY2026 performance | $1.204 billion revenue, $422.8 million net income, and $17.73 diluted EPS | SEC Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix | Q2 FY2026 Scores revenue $475.0 million and Software revenue $216.7 million | SEC Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Software ARR and retention | Software ARR $788.8 million, total DBNRR 109%, platform DBNRR 136% | FICO Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $219.4 million cash and cash equivalents, about $3.6 billion total debt, and about $3.38 billion net debt | SEC Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | Three major consumer reporting agencies generated 64% of Q2 FY2026 total revenue | SEC Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average near $1,212.77 and 200-day moving average near $1,199.99 | Investing.com FICO technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst sentiment | 20 analysts, Buy consensus, average 12-month target $1,529.55, high $2,400, low $707 | Investing.com FICO consensus estimates | July 8, 2026 |
This FICO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, mortgage volumes, credit score regulation, VantageScore adoption, debt costs, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
