Equifax Inc. research snapshot
EFX AI stock analysis reads Equifax as a durable, data-rich credit, employment, and identity information company whose Q2 2026 results showed strong execution against an uncertain mortgage backdrop. As of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the Q2 2026 report, released July 21, delivered reported revenue of $1.700 billion, up 11% and 10% in local currency, adjusted EPS of $2.25, up 13%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.5% flat year over year, while management raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $8.39 to $8.69. Equifax also signed a definitive agreement to acquire Círculo de Crédito, the fastest growing credit bureau in Mexico, for an enterprise value of $750 million, and doubled its 2026-2028 AI-driven cost reduction target to $150 million. The offset is that the stock closed at $172.62 on July 31, 2026, still down 28.7% over 52 weeks, below its 200-day moving average, with third-quarter 2026 guidance slightly below consensus and continued mortgage and rate sensitivity. At about 30.35x trailing GAAP EPS and 18.8x forward adjusted EPS, the valuation is more reasonable than a year ago but still prices in durable growth. The EFX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price target, and it treats mortgage activity, VantageScore adoption, government contract revenue, Círculo integration, free cash flow, debt, and execution on AI-powered products as the variables that matter most.
Current price
$172.62
Market cap
$20.28 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Improving, diversified data franchise with AI and government momentum, but mortgage sensitivity and elevated leverage still cap certainty
Trend status
Mixed. Price above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average after a 28.7% decline over 52 weeks
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Equifax sells credit, identity, employment, income, fraud, marketing, and decisioning data that lenders, employers, governments, insurers, and businesses use to make risk decisions, with TTM revenue near $6.45 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on proprietary and contributory databases, regulatory permissions, data contributor agreements, model history, customer workflow integration, and scale, with more than 90% of revenue from proprietary data sources and over 100 unique data exchanges. | Medium-high |
| Management | Mark Begor has led Equifax since 2018 and the current strategy emphasizes cloud modernization, EFX.AI, new products, government wins, bolt-on acquisitions, and cash returns. Execution is improving but still tested by mortgage cycles, litigation, and integration risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $6.075 billion and net income attributable to Equifax was $660.3 million. Q2 2026 revenue rose 11% to $1.700 billion and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $2.25, with full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $8.39 to $8.69. | High |
| Valuation | At $172.62, EFX screens near 30.35x trailing GAAP EPS, 18.8x forward EPS, 4.63x book value, 18.35x trailing free cash flow, 3.15x sales, and 13.48x EV/EBITDA, a de-rated but not cheap multiple. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $172.62 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average of $167.62 but below its 200-day moving average of $191.91, with RSI near 50.2 and a 52-week low of $150.75 still the key downside test. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are mortgage-volume and rate sensitivity, hiring softness, privacy regulation, data-security failures, antitrust pressure in verification services, leverage near $5.5 billion of total debt, and integration risk from Círculo de Crédito. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the data is rich and cross-checked across filings, the earnings call, and StockAnalysis.com. Return confidence is lower because a strong data franchise can still disappoint if rates, regulation, or litigation pressure valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EFX is a durable information-services business, but the stock needs sustained revenue and EPS growth, clean execution, lower mortgage sensitivity, and steady cash flow to justify a re-rating. | Medium |
EFX AI stock forecast
The EFX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $172.62 and the raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of about $8.54. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $132, a base area near $204, and a bullish area near $264 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 1%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 15x, 19x, and 22x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$250 to $280 before dividends
More likely if U.S. mortgage volumes stabilize or recover, VantageScore and pre-qual share gains continue, Workforce Solutions diversified markets keep growing high single digits, government contracts convert to revenue in 2027, Círculo de Crédito integrates and grows, and AI-driven cost savings compound margins.
$195 to $215 before dividends
More likely if revenue grows high single digits to low double digits, adjusted EPS tracks the $8.39 to $8.69 guidance path, diversified markets offset a soft mortgage market, and the stock holds near an 18x to 19x forward multiple.
$125 to $145 before dividends
More likely if mortgage volumes weaken further, rates stay high, hiring demand slows, antitrust or privacy costs rise, a data incident damages trust, Círculo de Crédito integration or funding pressure cash flow, or the market compresses EFX toward a 15x forward multiple.
EFX AI technical analysis
EFX AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $172.62 on July 31, 2026, down 1.99% on the day, above its 50-day moving average of $167.62 but below its 200-day moving average of $191.91, with RSI near 50.23, average 20-day volume near 1.81 million shares, and a 52-week range of $150.75 to $271.84. The short-term bounce needs confirmation because the stock remains below its longer-term trend line after a 28.7% decline over 52 weeks.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $172.62 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 117.48 million shares outstanding. |
| Immediate support | $167 to $168 | This area aligns with the 50-day moving average of $167.62 and is the first trend support to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $159 to $162 | This range sits below the 50-day average and would test whether buyers still trust the earnings path if mortgage news turns negative. |
| Key support | $150 to $152 | The 52-week low of $150.75 is the line in the sand; a sustained break below it would put the base-case setup at risk. |
| Near resistance | $179 to $182 | This area marks the lower analyst price targets and the post-earnings rebound ceiling that bulls need to reclaim. |
| Major resistance | $190 to $192 | The 200-day moving average of $191.91 sits here and is the key level for a larger trend repair. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day, below 200-day | The moving-average profile is a recovery pattern, not a confirmed long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.2 | Momentum is neutral, enough to support a range but not enough by itself to signal a durable breakout. |
| Volume | About 1.81 million average 20-day volume | Rising volume above resistance would strengthen trend confidence. Heavy volume below support would weaken it. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.32 | The stock has higher-than-market volatility, so risk controls should account for earnings, rates, litigation, and policy headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $167, then below $150 | A sustained close below the 50-day average would reduce short-term trend confidence. A break below $150.75 would challenge the base-case setup. |
EFX AI trading strategy
The EFX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with mortgage activity, rates, VantageScore adoption, government contract revenue, Workforce Solutions and USIS growth, International growth, free cash flow, debt, litigation, and privacy regulation.
Watch for EFX to hold above $167 to $168 and then reclaim $179 to $182 with improving mortgage, verification, USIS, government, and free cash flow data, and a clear Q3 2026 print near the raised guidance path.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $167 should reduce trend confidence, especially if rates rise, mortgage activity weakens, or management narrows guidance.
If EFX pulls back toward $159 to $162 or toward the $150 to $152 support zone without a break in revenue growth or cash generation, compare the lower price with normalized adjusted EPS, the $8.39 to $8.69 guidance path, debt load, and regulatory risk.
Do not treat a lower share price as attractive if the pullback is tied to privacy penalties, antitrust pressure, a data incident, mortgage deterioration, or structural weakness in verification demand.
Track U.S. mortgage revenue, VantageScore and pre-qual share gains, Workforce Solutions verification and government revenue, USIS online information revenue, International local-currency growth, Vitality Index, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow and cash conversion, total debt, Círculo de Crédito integration, and litigation disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that Equifax is a regulated data company with a de-rated but still meaningful multiple, recurring headline risk, and a $5.5 billion debt load, not a guaranteed compounder at any price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Equifax because they need trusted credit, income, employment, identity, fraud, marketing, and decisioning data at the moment they approve loans, verify workers, price risk, screen accounts, or comply with rules.
The moat comes from proprietary and contributory data, The Work Number and other verification records, contributor relationships, regulatory infrastructure, model history, customer workflow integration, and scale, with more than 90% of revenue from proprietary data sources. It is durable, but it depends on trust and permission to use sensitive data.
The thesis fails if Equifax loses data trust, regulators restrict monetization, antitrust pressure reduces verification economics, mortgage and hiring markets stay weak, Círculo de Crédito integration stalls, competitors narrow model performance, or a $5.5 billion debt load limits flexibility.
Management has focused on cloud transformation, EFX.AI, new product innovation, government wins, free cash flow, buybacks, and dividends, and it doubled its AI-driven cost reduction target to $150 million. The next proof point is whether these investments generate per-share value after litigation, compliance, debt, and integration costs.
Credit risk, identity verification, income verification, fraud detection, and automated underwriting are long-term data and analytics trends, and VantageScore competition plus government income verification are structural tailwinds. The offset is that consumer data is politically sensitive and mortgage-related demand remains interest-rate driven.
At $172.62, EFX trades near 18.8x forward adjusted EPS and 18.35x trailing free cash flow, well below the multiples of 2025. Margin of safety improves if free cash flow grows while debt declines, or if the stock holds above the $150 to $155 area without a structural decline in data demand.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EFX price reference | $172.62 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 1.99% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $20.28 billion, verified as $172.62 x 117.48 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 117.48 million shares outstanding, down 2.88% year over year | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 reported revenue | $1,700.1 million, up 11% reported and 10% local currency versus Q2 2025 | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted EPS of $2.25, up 13%; adjusted net income attributable to Equifax of $268.6 million, up 8%; adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.5% flat year over year | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net income attributable to Equifax of $183.9 million, down 4%; diluted EPS of $1.54, up 1% | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Workforce Solutions $705.4 million up 7%, USIS $611.6 million up 17%, International $383.1 million up 8% reported and 4% local currency | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release | July 21, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Reported revenue guidance of $6.710 billion to $6.780 billion and adjusted EPS guidance of $8.39 to $8.69, raised from $8.34 to $8.74 | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release | July 21, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue of $1.680 billion to $1.710 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.25, with consensus at $2.27 | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly | July 21, 2026 |
| Círculo de Crédito acquisition | Definitive agreement to acquire the fastest growing credit bureau in Mexico for $750 million enterprise value, roughly 11.7x expected 2026 EBITDA or about 9.4x with run-rate synergies, closing expected in Q4 2026 | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | July 21, 2026 |
| AI cost reduction target | Doubled 2026-2028 AI-driven cost reduction target to $150 million from $75 million | Equifax Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | July 21, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $170.1 million cash and equivalents, $5.467 billion total debt, and negative $5.297 billion net cash on a TTM balance-sheet basis | StockAnalysis.com EFX balance sheet and statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $6.445 billion, net income to common of $691.4 million, EPS of $5.69, and EBITDA of $1.898 billion | StockAnalysis.com EFX income statement | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $1.612 billion, capital expenditures of $507.4 million, and free cash flow of $1.105 billion over TTM | StockAnalysis.com EFX cash flow statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 30.35x trailing PE, 18.8x forward PE, 4.63x PB, 18.35x P/FCF, 13.48x EV/EBITDA, and 1.30% dividend yield verified with financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $210.52 across 24 analysts, low $179 and high $245, median $210 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 24, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 12 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 24, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Deutsche Bank $208, BofA $210, Morgan Stanley $225, Baird $232, Wells Fargo $212, Barclays $200, RBC Capital $194, Clear Street $190, Goldman Sachs $182 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks analyst news | July 24, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $6.75 billion with adjusted EPS $8.57, FY2027 revenue $7.35 billion with adjusted EPS $10.16 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 24, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $167.62, 200-day moving average $191.91, RSI near 50.23, average 20-day volume about 1.81 million shares | StockAnalysis.com EFX statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Management reference | Mark W. Begor served as CEO in 2025 and had 8 years at Equifax at year end 2025, continuing to lead the company through the Q2 2026 report | Equifax 2026 proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
This EFX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell Equifax Inc. stock, and not a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, market references, and explicit assumptions as of the stated data cutoff date of August 2, 2026, and they can be wrong.
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