Eversource Energy research snapshot
ES AI stock analysis currently reads Eversource Energy as a regulated New England electric and gas delivery company in the middle of a strategic reset. On July 30, 2026 the company reported Q2 2026 recurring EPS of $0.87, in line with consensus, completed the Aquarion Water sale on June 30, 2026, and reaffirmed 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 after the FERC transmission return on equity reduction. The setup is not a high-certainty buy signal because the stock trades near the midpoint of its 52-week range, below its 50-day moving average, with about $30.34 billion of debt, thin free cash flow, a lower allowed transmission ROE, and a 4.40% dividend yield that depends on continued earnings and financing discipline. The ES AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a precise price prediction, and treats allowed returns, debt reduction, rate-case recovery, capital spending, interest rates, and the new ISO-NE transmission project as the key variables.
Current price
$71.59
Market cap
$26.99 billion verified market cap
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Pure-play utility turning point with FERC return pressure, high debt, and thin free cash flow
Trend status
Consolidating below the 50-day average and near the 200-day average after Q2 earnings
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Eversource provides essential electric, gas, and transmission service across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire, and completed the Aquarion Water sale on June 30, 2026 to become a focused electric and gas delivery company. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated monopoly utility territories, grid assets, reliability obligations, scale, and regulatory franchises rather than consumer brand pricing power. | High |
| Management | Joe Nolan has refocused the company on regulated delivery, closed the Aquarion sale, and won a preliminary ISO-NE transmission selection, but management must prove debt reduction, rate recovery, and free cash flow improvement after offshore wind and FERC charges. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 operating revenue rose to $13.55 billion and net income recovered to about $1.69 billion, while Q2 2026 recurring EPS came in at $0.87 in line with consensus and 2026 guidance was reaffirmed at $4.57 to $4.72. | High |
| Valuation | At $71.59, ES screens near 15.4x forward EPS on the 2026 guidance midpoint, about 1.93x sales, 1.63x book value, a 4.40% dividend yield, and a very high P/FCF multiple because free cash flow remains thin. | High |
| Technical trend | Price closed July 31, 2026 at $71.59, just below the 50-day moving average near $71.73 and just above the 200-day average near $70.40, with RSI near 42, so the trend is neutral to consolidating. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are FERC and state rate decisions, high debt, interest rates, equity dilution, thin free cash flow, offshore wind contingent liabilities, storm recovery, and execution of the post-Aquarion balance sheet plan. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the Q2 release, filings, and market data are rich. Return confidence is lower because regulatory decisions and bond yields can change the valuation quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ES has a durable utility base, but the current price needs constructive regulation, debt progress, and steady EPS growth to justify meaningful upside from here. | Medium |
ES AI stock forecast
The ES AI stock forecast is scenario-based because utility value depends on allowed returns, rate-base growth, debt costs, dividend coverage, capital spending, and investor appetite for income stocks. Using the $71.59 price reference, the reaffirmed 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $4.65, and a three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $59 in a bear case, $81 in a base case, and $103 in a bullish case before dividends. The range is not a promise. A better outcome needs constructive rate orders, the Aquarion proceeds to reduce debt or fund capex, stable interest rates, EPS growth near management's 5% to 7% long-term target, and progress toward the upper half of that range by 2028 as management expects.
$92 to $104 before dividends
More likely if ES compounds EPS near 7%, the ISO-NE transmission project adds rate base, regulators allow recovery of grid investments, FERC impacts are absorbed, Aquarion proceeds support debt reduction, Treasury yields ease, and the stock keeps a high-teens earnings multiple.
$76 to $86 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS grows around 5%, the company lands near its reaffirmed 2026 guidance range, state rate outcomes remain acceptable, debt metrics stabilize, and investors value ES near a low-to-mid teens earnings multiple.
$56 to $64 before dividends
More likely if interest rates rise, FERC or state regulators further compress allowed returns, customer bill pressure limits recovery, equity issuance weighs on per-share growth, free cash flow stays thin, or storm and project costs exceed recovery assumptions.
ES AI technical analysis
ES AI technical analysis is neutral to consolidating as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 31, 2026 close of $71.59, down 3.05% on the day and about 6.5% below the $76.57 52-week high. The 50-day moving average sits near $71.73 and the 200-day moving average near $70.40, so price closed just below the 50-day and just above the 200-day. RSI near 41.6 is neutral. The setup favors waiting for price to reclaim the 50-day average or hold the 200-day area before treating the pullback as resolved.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.59 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $71.59, down 3.05% on the day after the Q2 report. |
| Immediate support | $70.40 to $71.00 | The 200-day moving average near $70.40 and the July 31 low near $71.33 define the first support zone. |
| Major support | $66.75 to $67.50 | This area sits near the lower part of the 50-day range and would mark a deeper pullback within the uptrend. |
| Deeper support | $61.50 to $63.00 | The $61.53 52-week low and the area below it would signal a larger reset if tested. |
| Near resistance | $73.80 to $75.50 | The July 31 previous close near $73.84 and the upper end of the 50-day range near $75.42 form the first overhead zone. |
| Upper resistance | $76.60 to $80.00 | The $76.57 52-week high and round-number supply around $80 would need lower yields plus better regulatory confidence to clear. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $71.73, 200-day near $70.40 | Price is wedged between the two averages, so reclaiming the 50-day or losing the 200-day will set the near-term tone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42 | StockAnalysis listed 14-day RSI near 41.6, which signals neutral momentum after the Q2 pullback, not an extreme overbought or oversold reading. |
| Volume | 5.28 million shares on July 31 vs about 2.6 million average | StockAnalysis reported above-average volume on the down day, so a strong reclaim of the 50-day average would carry more weight if it comes on heavy volume. |
| Volatility | Watch rates, FERC news, Q3 earnings, and debt updates | Utility volatility often arrives through bond yields, regulatory orders, financing updates, and weather cost recovery. |
| Invalidation | Close below $70.40, then below $61.53 | A sustained break below the 200-day area would weaken the trend. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the defensive recovery setup. |
ES AI trading strategy
The ES AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with reaffirmed EPS guidance, FERC transmission ROE impact, Aquarion sale proceeds, debt reduction, dividend coverage, rate-case recovery, the ISO-NE transmission project, customer affordability, and Treasury yields.
Watch for ES to reclaim and hold above the $71.73 to $73.84 area with stable Treasury yields, constructive rate commentary, and no negative update to the $4.57 to $4.72 2026 guidance, then confirm a move toward the $75.42 to $76.57 resistance zone.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $70.40 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management points to higher financing needs, weaker rate recovery, or more offshore wind contingent payments.
If ES pulls back toward $70.40 or the $66.75 to $67.50 zone while the regulated earnings plan and 4.40% dividend yield remain intact, compare the lower price with reaffirmed EPS guidance, debt reduction progress, and free cash flow direction.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if free cash flow stays thin, regulators disallow recovery, equity issuance becomes the main funding tool, or dividend coverage weakens.
Track Q3 2026 earnings, the $4.57 to $4.72 non-GAAP EPS guidance range, FERC ROE developments, state rate cases, Aquarion sale proceeds, debt balances, dividend coverage, the ISO-NE transmission project, and storm cost recovery.
Position sizing should reflect that ES is a leveraged regulated utility with political and interest-rate risk, not a guaranteed-income instrument or a substitute for personal portfolio planning.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Eversource because homes, businesses, hospitals, data centers, and municipalities need reliable electricity and gas delivery. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment into allowed earnings.
ES has regulated local utility franchises, grid scale, transmission assets, service obligations, rights of way, and regulatory operating knowledge. The moat is strong, but returns are capped and reviewed by regulators.
The thesis fails if regulators lower allowed returns, customer affordability blocks recovery, debt costs stay high, equity issuance dilutes owners, storm costs outrun recovery, free cash flow stays negative, or offshore wind contingent liabilities grow.
Joe Nolan and the board are simplifying the company after the Aquarion sale and offshore wind exits. The key test is whether management can strengthen the balance sheet and expand free cash flow while funding grid investment and the new transmission project.
Electrification, grid hardening, clean-energy interconnection, data center demand, and reliability investment support long-term utility capital spending. The offset is that every dollar of capex needs regulatory approval and financing.
At $71.59, ES prices in a regulated utility recovery and a 4.40% dividend yield, close to the average analyst price target near $72.58 to $74.08. Margin of safety improves closer to the 200-day support area or if debt reduction and regulatory outcomes make the base-case $76 to $86 range more conservative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES quote reference | $71.59 close on July 31, 2026, down 3.05% on the day and about 6.5% below the $76.57 52-week high | StockAnalysis ES overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $26.99 billion reported and $26.99 billion calculated from $71.59 x 377.0 million shares, a 0.00% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis ES overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 377.00 million shares outstanding, up 2.65% year over year | StockAnalysis ES statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | GAAP earnings of $53.7 million or $0.14 per share and non-GAAP recurring earnings of $329.1 million or $0.87 per share, with $111.4 million Aquarion sale charge and $164.0 million offshore wind contingent liability charge | Eversource Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and FERC impact | Reaffirmed 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 and 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth through 2030, reflecting the FERC transmission ROE reduction from 10.57% to 9.57% and no Aquarion earnings in the second half | Eversource Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $270.18 million cash and cash equivalents, $30.34 billion total debt, and a negative $30.07 billion net cash position | StockAnalysis ES statistics and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation inputs | TTM GAAP EPS $3.86, forward EPS basis $4.65 at the 2026 guidance midpoint, book value per share $43.97, estimated FCF per share about $0.63, dividend $3.15, and revenue per share about $37.14 | StockAnalysis ES overview and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average near $71.73, 200-day moving average near $70.40, RSI near 41.6, 52-week range $61.53 to $76.57, and above-average volume on the July 31 down day | StockAnalysis ES statistics and overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating Hold with an average price target of $72.58 from 13 analysts, ranging from $60 to $85, with recent actions including a BofA raise to $81 and a Citigroup Neutral initiation at $81 | MarketBeat ES forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Aquarion sale | Eversource completed the Aquarion Water sale on June 30, 2026, strengthening the balance sheet and completing the shift to a focused electric and gas delivery company | Eversource Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
This ES AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Eversource Energy stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, rate-case, financing, storm-cost, interest-rate, FERC, offshore wind, or regulatory information changes.
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