Emerson Electric Co. research snapshot
EMR AI stock analysis currently reads Emerson Electric as a high-quality automation compounder with growing software exposure, not a cheap cyclical. Emerson sells measurement, control, valves, power systems, and industrial software that run critical process and hybrid operations, and Q2 fiscal 2026 delivered net sales of $4.562 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.54, and 5% underlying order growth. The August 2, 2026 setup is balanced because the business has durable end-market exposure and raised its outlook, while the stock reference price of $149.82 is near the 52-week high of $165.15 and trades about 34.68x TTM EPS and 21.98x forward EPS with a 1.48% dividend yield. The EMR AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a precise price prediction, and treats order growth, margin delivery, software mix, debt reduction, and industrial capex demand as the variables that matter most. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$149.82
Market cap
$83.91 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-quality automation franchise with strong software growth, but the August 2026 price near its 52-week high already prices in the upper end of guidance
Trend status
Constructive but extended, trading above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a multi-week rebound toward the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Emerson sells automation hardware, controls, measurement, valves, power systems, test equipment, and industrial software that customers use to run critical process and hybrid operations, with a growing software contribution. | High |
| Moat | Installed base, engineering trust, switching costs, software and control-system integration, channel reach, and scale support the moat, though industrial customers still push on price and project timing. | Medium-high |
| Management | Lal Karsanbhai has reshaped Emerson into a focused automation company with ~$2.2 billion of planned fiscal 2026 shareholder returns, but the current test is converting order momentum and margin gains into sustained organic growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $18.32 billion with $2.45 billion net income and $4.33 EPS. Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales were $4.562 billion, and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is $6.45 to $6.55. | High |
| Valuation | At $149.82, EMR screens near 34.68x TTM EPS, 21.98x forward EPS, 4.13x book value, 26.94x free cash flow, and a 1.48% dividend yield, with a $83.91 billion verified market cap. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart holds above the 50-day average near $141.89 and the 200-day average near $139.58, with RSI at 60.53 and price near the $151.00 to $152.09 near-term resistance zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are industrial capex slowdown, Middle East conflict effects, China and Europe weakness, automation order softness, software integration missteps, leverage, and multiple compression from a premium starting point. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the financial data is rich and cross-checked across StockAnalysis, Macrotrends, Google Finance, and Emerson IR. Return confidence is lower because the stock already reflects a favorable automation story near its high. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EMR is a strong franchise, but the current price needs continued order growth and margin delivery to justify the premium multiple, and the August 4 earnings report is an immediate catalyst. | Medium |
EMR AI stock forecast
The EMR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the market already values Emerson as a premium automation compounder. Using the $149.82 price reference, TTM EPS of $4.33, and the three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $78 in a bear case, $114 in a base case, and $150 in a bullish case before dividends. Upside beyond that range needs stronger normalized EPS, higher software mix, and a premium multiple that persists, since fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.45 to $6.55 is largely reflected in the current forward multiple.
$140 to $170 before dividends
More likely if automation orders keep growing, management delivers or beats adjusted EPS guidance, software and AspenTech-related exposure expands, free cash flow compounds, and investors keep valuing EMR near a premium industrial multiple.
$110 to $135 before dividends
More likely if earnings grow mid-single digits, free cash flow remains healthy around the $3.5 to $3.6 billion fiscal 2026 outlook, but the market applies a more normal industrial multiple after the recent run to the 52-week high.
$70 to $95 before dividends
More likely if industrial demand slows, the Middle East conflict or China weakness persists, project orders weaken, integration benefits disappoint, debt reduction slows, or investors reprice EMR closer to a cyclical industrial multiple.
EMR AI technical analysis
EMR AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The latest close was $149.82 on July 31, 2026, with an intraday range of $147.95 to $151.00 and volume near 3.53 million shares, above the 20-day average of about 2.54 million. Price holds above the 50-day average near $141.89 and the 200-day average near $139.58, but the August 4 earnings report makes levels dependent on order and margin commentary.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $149.82 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $149.82, up 0.79% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $147.95 to $149.80 | This area brackets the July 31 intraday low of $147.95 and the close reference. |
| Deeper support | $141.89 to $144 | This zone overlaps the 50-day moving average near $141.89 and is a practical prior-range area to monitor if the stock pulls back. |
| Near resistance | $151.00 to $152.09 | This range reflects the July 31 high of $151.00 and the July 28 high of $152.09, the first levels buyers need to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $160 to $165.15 | This range sits below the 52-week high of $165.15 and needs sustained EPS delivery because the stock already trades at a premium earnings multiple. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $141.89, 200-day near $139.58 | Price holding above both averages supports the trend, and a pullback that holds these levels is healthier than a chase near resistance. |
| Momentum | Positive with RSI near 60.53 | Momentum is constructive but not overbought, and it should be weighed against the earnings report because high-quality industrials can still react sharply to guidance. |
| Volume | 3.53 million shares on July 31, 2026 | Volume above the 20-day average of about 2.54 million, so rising volume on breaks below support would weaken the trend-following case. |
| Volatility | Watch the August 4, 2026 earnings report | Automation stocks can move quickly around backlog, order, margin, and capex-cycle updates, so positioning should respect event risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $147.95, then below $141.89 | A sustained close below the July 31 intraday low would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 50-day average near $141.89 would challenge the larger premium-multiple thesis. |
EMR AI trading strategy
The EMR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with order growth, margin delivery, software mix, cash conversion, leverage, and industrial capex data, and it treats the August 4, 2026 earnings report as a key event.
Watch for EMR to reclaim and hold above $151.00 to $152.09 after the August 4 earnings report confirms order growth, margin expansion, and healthy free cash flow toward the $3.5 to $3.6 billion fiscal 2026 outlook.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $147.95 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management points to weaker orders, Middle East effects, or slower margin progress.
If EMR pulls back toward $141.89 to $144 without a break in automation demand or cash generation, compare the lower price with normalized EPS and cash conversion instead of the elevated TTM multiple.
Do not treat a lower share price as attractive if the pullback is tied to order cancellations, project deferrals, debt pressure, China or Middle East weakness, or structural margin decline.
Track process automation orders, discrete and hybrid demand, Software & Systems and AspenTech-related contribution, adjusted segment EBITA, operating cash flow, net debt, dividend coverage, buybacks, and the August 4, 2026 earnings report against fiscal 2026 guidance of adjusted EPS $6.45 to $6.55.
Position sizing should reflect that EMR trades near its 52-week high with a premium industrial multiple, so a strong story can still produce a sharp drawdown if guidance disappoints.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Emerson because factories, refineries, life-science plants, power systems, test labs, and process operators need reliable measurement, control, automation, software, and service support for mission-critical assets, and that need is tied to uptime and safety.
The moat comes from installed base, control-system integration, engineering trust, switching costs, domain expertise, channel reach, and scale. It is durable, but not immune to project cycles, price pressure, or technology change.
The thesis fails if automation demand slows, competitors narrow the technology gap, software integration underdelivers, the Middle East conflict or China weakness persists, leverage limits capital returns, or the premium multiple compresses faster than earnings can grow.
Management has reshaped Emerson into a more focused automation company and plans about $2.2 billion of fiscal 2026 shareholder returns. The next proof point is whether order momentum, margin gains, and capital allocation create per-share value rather than only a cleaner story.
Automation sits on a long-term trend toward safer operations, labor productivity, energy efficiency, software-driven control, and industrial data. The offset is that capex cycles, rates, geopolitics, and regional demand still matter.
At $149.82, near the 52-week high of $165.15, EMR prices in a strong automation franchise and continued execution, with margin of safety limited. The setup improves if earnings accelerate without multiple expansion, or if the stock pulls back toward the base-case valuation range while orders remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMR quote reference | $149.82 July 31, 2026 close, intraday range $147.95 to $151.00, up 0.79% on the day | Google Finance and StockAnalysis EMR quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $83.91 billion calculated from $149.82 x 560.10 million shares, verified with financial_rigor.py at 0.00% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis EMR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 560.10 million shares outstanding, down 1.21% year over year | StockAnalysis EMR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue of $18.32 billion and TTM net income of $2.45 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis EMR financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $18.016 billion net sales, cross-checked at 0.00% deviation between StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis EMR financials and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income common | $2.293 billion net income attributable to common stockholders, up 16.51% from fiscal 2024 | StockAnalysis EMR financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 results | Net sales of $4.562 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.54, GAAP EPS of $1.10, and 5% underlying order growth | Emerson Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 outlook | Adjusted EPS guidance of $6.45 to $6.55, operating cash flow of $4.0 to $4.1 billion, free cash flow of $3.5 to $3.6 billion | Emerson Q2 fiscal 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $1.791 billion cash and equivalents at March 31, 2026, with total debt near $13.4 billion and a net cash position of about negative $12.3 billion | Emerson fiscal 2026 Q2 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis EMR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 34.68x TTM EPS, 21.98x forward EPS, 4.13x book value, 26.94x free cash flow, 1.48% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis EMR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with a $163.54 average price target across 29 analysts, about 9.16% above the July 31 close | StockAnalysis EMR forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull $149.8, base $113.5, bear $77.9 before dividends using EPS $4.33 and 26x, 22x, 18x terminal P/E cases over three years | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
This EMR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, orders, rates, geopolitics, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
